A huge change the last 6 hours…
24 hours ago it was gusting over 70 mph at Vista House in the Gorge with easterly wind; now it’s light westerly. We’ve had a massive push of ocean air inland since midnight, triggered by a passing upper-level trough. Suddenly we have a 4,000′ deep marine layer in late October. It should go without saying that we probably won’t see any sun today and high temps will be 15 degrees cooler. But hey, at least no wind?
This entry was posted on Wednesday, October 19th, 2011 at 10:08 am and is filed under Weather. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
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FOX 12 Weather Blog
Have you been a global-warming skeptic? Good! We should always test science that is new. Richard A. Muller, the noted physicist, was himself skeptical of the climate data he was seeing reported. So a couple of years ago, backed in part by other skeptics (including the Koch brothers), he set out to test the data.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204422404576594872796327348.html
A few glances of sunshine here today so far but mostly cloudy by in large …
The Atmospheric River is trying to slide down here and give us a good soaking:
National Weather Service Portland or
258 am PDT Friday Oct 21 2011
Short term…water vapor satellite imagery shows a long plume of
moisture extending east-northeastward from the west Pacific
tropics…entrained into a long frontal zone which is about to move
into western Washington today. Latest AMSU estimates show 1.00-1.25 inch precipitable water values along the front…with the leading edge of this deeper moisture beginning to move east of 130w. This is a very modest atmospheric river scenario…but it still has the potential to produce some decent rainfall totals when the associated frontal zone stalls over western Washington.
Models are trending a little further south with the heavier rainfall
totals over the past few runs. However it still looks like the focus
of the heavier rain will remain north of our area…over Vancouver
Island and the olympic peninsula. The South Washington coast…
Willapa Hills…and South Washington Cascades may get clipped with the heavier rain from time to time as the frontal zone undulates
southward later today…tonight and Saturday. The moist onshore flow will also make rain likely at times for the north Oregon coast…
with lesser chances further south and east of the Coast Range.
Undulating frontal zones are fun to watch! 😀
I really like zones of that type!
The update indicates a little more vigorous frontal system will be brushing some precipitation our way, as it undulates about.
National Weather Service Portland or
817 am PDT Friday Oct 21 2011
Short term…satellite imagery shows a little more vigorous frontal
system approaching the Pacific northwest this morning…which will affect the Pacific northwest into the weekend. The main energy of the system is moving toward Canada/Washington with a warm front approaching the coast spreading clouds and precipitation ahead of it into western Washington…and brushing some precipitation into our northern zones.
Oh yeah, vigorously undulating warm full frontal systems are the best kind, especially when they approach and spread directly into our northern zones!!! 😆
Well, that or snow. I like snow, if you hadn’t already noticed…
Okay, I’m done now.
I’m just trying to wish any kind of system in here.
Thursday PM update
General anesthetic weather for next five days or so…nothing for the senses
Midweek next week (Tues-Wed)…still think has frost potential…mm5 GFS does not think so…have to wait and see.
Looking at model runs..GFS, ECMWF, Canadian…looks like transition toward cooler wetter weather in the works around the weekend of Oct 29/30…into Halloween…high temps in low 50s
ECMWF extended run (if to be believed)…has significantly colder weather by second or third weekend of November….with 850mb temps below -5C.
Cascades….borderline opportunity for accumulating snow at pass elevation in Oregon for the last few days of October…looking more likely for the first week of November.
ENSO SSTs dropping over eastern regions……
As usual, enjoyable to read your point of view. Thanks Paul
NWS is on board with your frost potential…
http://inws.wrh.noaa.gov/weather/alertinfo/4130470
Probably won’t happen now, we all know how this works!
Definite need for a cornflowerblue:
Wow, that’s the national flower of Estonia!
http://www.estinst.ee/publications/symbols/#Other national symbols
🙂
[…] Heaviest Rainfall: 0.10″ at SADDLE MOUNTAIN(3250ft) 0.08″ at CW5507 Camp Sher(3020ft) 0.08″ at MILLER(1031ft) Reply […]
10/20/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary
Warmest:
High:74 at Medford Viaduct(1360 ft) & ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft) & PROVOLT SEED ORC(1180 ft)
Low: 56 at John Day River B(305 ft) & Rufus 2E(279 ft)
Coldest:
High:43 at HOWARD Mt Howard (8150 ft )
Low: 23 at KLAMATH NWR (4531 ft )
Largest Diurnal Change: 45 degrees
Beatty (69/24 ) (4320 ft )
Heaviest Rainfall:
0.10″ at SADDLE MOUNTAIN(3250ft)
0.08″ at CW5507 Camp Sher(3020ft)
0.08″ at MILLER(1031ft)
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/Quakes/nc71667591.html
Another quake in Oakland just a few minutes ago, M4.2
Glad I’m up here! O_O
didn’t feel it. didn’t happen
The Grist Mill today, added 22 photos.
…sun up here until around 2, now multi-grey with sprinkles, and a warm 60.4 ..I’ve seen a lot of mushrooms come out of the woods today!..
Was quite the nice day with light wind, and only a quick sprinkle, high of 61.4 here. 0.00″ rain. Wind gust of 11 mph from the SW.
chantrelles? They’re in their prime!
…those be the ones…saw a couple bushels….
A couple of decent showers have rolled through here. 0.03″ today. Temp reached 60 this morning around 11 but is just 57 now.
It’s hard to believe our normal now is only in the low 60s anyway.
M3.9 in Oakland a few minutes ago, shook up a couple of my friends down there pretty good!
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/Quakes/nc71667366.php
Two things;
from Annie A: “All of the gnomes have survived the earthquake!” 😆
And: Despite any rumors to the contrary, no tsunamis were generated in or around San Francisco Bay. 😉
didnt feel it. didnt happen
First forecast of lowland snow, out in La-La.
Hmmm… ~ 3 inches mid-day November 1.
I’d love it! I’ll believe it when I see it…
With 850mb temps -4 to -5C, I would suspect this snow would stay above 2000ft
Oops, I was off by 12 hours, looks like the date marks are at 00h, not 12h, s0 I guess that would be mid-NIGHT November 1/2.
Still…
Looks like Hallowe’en’s gonna be a wet day, 0.75″ rain morning hours, 0.5″ rain daytime, another 0.25″ rain overnight… maybe it’ll push through early for a dry evening? I remember plenty of drown-out trick or treating’s growing up, I survived. 😮
There sure is a significant lack of clouds in that sunny blue sky for such a dreary, rainy day… Yet another forecast blown! Tsk tsk tsk Mark, you’re strikin’ out! 😡
Crap! Spoke too soon…
It’s been mainly cloudy here with a few sprinkles.
Had some clearing this AM. Light rain presently in the land of gravelly plains.
Noaa just released the winter outlook for 2011-2012 🙂
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20111020_winteroutlook.html
The GFS sure does seem insistent on keeping things relatively mild through most of the run… Looks like fall will stay relatively warm to seasonable and dry all things considered. Here’s to hoping for a wild winter…
Cpc 3 month forecast for NDJ is out, calling for EC on temps but high precip. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
As one would expect with la nina, check out JFM:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3
Got studs?
A reasonable La-Nina forecast.
So, what I gather from all this is a normal temperature’d November and December, a slightly cooler than normal January, much cooler than normal February, slightly cooler than normal March, and this entire period looks wetter than normal. Looks to me like the bulk of the cold/wet will come just about the time it’s too late in the season for it to matter down low.
Basically, several close-call valley/lowland non-snow events, with a late season ramping up of mountain snowfall.
So… kinda-sorta like last winter?
I hope the cooler than normal and wetter than normal don’t last until early/mid-August again… 😕
You can spin anything negative and whiny can’t ya? Must be a real joy to be around in real life. 😉
You’re really bad at this whole sarcasm thing, aren’t you Jess?
It’s a shame…
You must be really difficult to get along with in real life.
Would explain a lot. 😉
lol
After last spring and early summer, I think we’re entitled to a bit of whining at the prospect of another obnoxiously chilly/cloudy/damp MAMJJ, Jesse. The fact that we’ve had a lot of bad luck the past 10-15 years when it comes to spring weather gives us a little bit of license. Not a lot, just a little.
My favorite outcome would be a much cooler-than-average pattern during the third quarter of winter, followed by an abrupt shift to 60-degree sunshine shortly after Valentine’s Day. Not 45 to 55 in a few days, but a stormy 40 with hilltop snow to a sunny 60 with 850mb heights up around 8-10 C.
Or we could have a long period of very chilly weather then turn the heat on in late March, getting up to 70-75 degrees.
Like fog? Then you’ll love the 12z ecmwf and its big ridge. Nice prehalloween inversion. Creepy….
No, I like rain.
What hour of the run is this on?
I hate to say it but I think I’d enjoy a fogversion in October. Simply because of the unseasonably cold days it would bring. As long as it didn’t go on and on for day after day after day, but only lasted 2 or 3 days.
where is all the frost i love and miss 😦 when will we get some
10/19/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary
Warmest:
High:78 at ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft)
Low: 56 at WA7ZVY-4 Newport(128 ft)
Coldest:
High:47 at NORTH FORK(3120 ft) & Government Camp(3600 ft) & Timberline Lodge(7001 ft)
Low: 25 at CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft )
Largest Diurnal Change: 42 degrees
HEREFORD (70/28 ) (3599 ft )
Heaviest Rainfall:
0.05″ at LOG CREEK(2800ft)
…bet the rattlers in Hereford aren’t liking these nights….
GOLU model is operating this eve:
National Weather Service Portland or
825 PM PDT Wednesday Oct 19 2011
Have increased the probability of precipitation over the northern Willamette Valley for this evening due to surface reports and radar…
Now I know why I decided to close the sunroof completely on the old car out front.
From my hike to Tamanawas Falls on Monday…
I snow shoe’d that trail on Dec 9 2005. That was the best ever!!
Snow-shoeing that trail sounds awfully scary, unless you can clearly tell where all the bumps and stumps and boulders and drop-offs are. Then again, there are plenty of trails that are worse than Tamanawas in these regards.
Great photos, Tyler!
That’s a very nice waterfall… I can imagine snowshoeing to it would be a great trek! I might have to give that a try. 🙂
When I snow shoe’d this, It was during a long “fake cold” spell. I remember it was near 50 at PDX that day. Temps in the upper hood river valley topped out 25-30 with full sunshine and no wind. There was about 2 feet of fresh powder at the trail head.
here is a photo crossing the bridge on that trail
Wow, fluffy!
Who’s Mustachio? He looks kinda like that one cop-dude from Reno 911! 😆
Mark I saw the sun today in Portland, but hey if you’re going to be wrong that’s the way to do it.
Yes, I did say mostly or all cloudy. Sorry you happened to see that one sunbreak!
Thank God I live in Seattle so I won’t have to put up with your WRONG forecasts all the time, Mark.
where is the average snow level going to be for washington this winter some years seem lower then others
We’ll probably get an idea on were the snow level will be when the winter is over. Can’t predict the storms that will move in throughout the winter right now.
Did a little comparing of Last years October to October 2008
2010
http://www.beautifulseattle.com/mthsum.asp
2008
http://www.beautifulseattle.com/mthsum.asp
With the rate that this October is going and what the models are showing for the rest of the month, it’s pretty similar to 2008.
Take it how you will…
This is for Seattle, mind you. I live up this way.
Hmmmm…maybe that will lead to a similar December 2008. 🙂
whats my chances of seeing snow this winter if i live at 600 feet in washington please any answers will help
There is no way of knowing. Just watch the weather and be prepared.
I think it might be correct to say that although there are no absolutes we can make a pretty good guess. At your elevation with a blocky la nina on tap I would say 80% chance or higher that you see snow at your place(what you asked). Beyond that I can’t say much.
Two different things:
It’s 69 and sunny!! In sisters
A friend of mine told me this afternoon because of the forecast she specifically saw this morning on tv, she left her dogs outside. Only to see this stuff come in.
Oops! Forecast. Except for NOAA. They called it right.
I think the dogs are fine outside in 60+ degree weather haha.
Sun is peeking out at times here. Dry.
Getting measurable rain right now at BG Lake.
Let the forecast nightmare continue……..
Try 20 degree cooler! It is annoyingly cold out there today as opposed to yesterday. My body is too acclimated to our small shifts in temperature
Mist/drizzle and 55 here in Longview. What a difference a day makes
Still sunny and windless in The Dalles…I wonder why the west wind hasn’t kicked up here yet?
The Dalles is gusting 23mph at noon
Weather watchers shouldn’t take the weather forecast to the point of threatening someone on a blown forecast.
Personally, I need the sun for my depression. So on moonscape days here in the Portland/sandy ares, I just click on the odot webcams and view the weather east of the cascades.
The original forecast from NOAA was some sun on the west side o/the weekend and up to tues.
Wed (today) clouds and cooler temps were to move in.
The pictorial forecast from the weather channel and fox 12 showed sun up till Thursday.
The latter forecast threw me off. So I remembered the original forecast from NOAA, which was right all along.
As far as local tv stations to watch the weather on: I view channel 12/mark nelsen, and channel (8?) with rod hill, inconjunction with reading the NOAA discussion page. I’ve also periodically read Pete parsons’ ag weather blog.
It’s been spitting here in sandy.
Lastly, according to the Internet research weather pages, November is to be warm and dry. Late December, and into January is when the cascades/foothills (1,000 ft) will get some snow again.
Still sunny here, despite the marine intrusion, not sure why didn’t go overcast… But I’ll take it. You can see the marine layer on the webcam
Well, the clouds arrived, knew it had to come
I like the east winds. Actually any big wind is fine with me.. 🙂
Socked-in 55° currently.
Dear Mr. Nielsen,
I was assured that there would be NO RAIN until after noon by you and Mr. Biran Mac Milan, and yet there was a fine mist on my windshield this morning. My wife just had her hair done and it will be ruined by this forecasting disaster!!! I talk before I think I am and you are also, too!!!! Please put this red mark on your forecasting report card.
Sincerely,
DR. Zero, MGD.
Hahaah! I now what you maen!
Something about that e-mail keeps me chuckling every time it crosses my simple mind…lol
I will be sending in my wife’s hair dressers bill and expect it promptly paid. Plus I request reimbursement for my lost time typing this note.
lol good one Garron. I especially liked “I talk before I think I am and you are also, too!!!! “
…we’re all bozos on this bus….
GFS looks fairly dry long term for us. Good thing it wasn’t a Detroit/Milwaukie world series, or there may have been snow-outs. The North American pattern looks oddly similar to last December when the east coast was getting buried.
I ❤ clouds…. 🙂
1st!
….still sunny up here, but i can se the wall of clouds approaching…