No Sunshine Today

A huge change the last 6 hours…

 

24 hours ago it was gusting over 70 mph at Vista House in the Gorge with easterly wind; now it’s light westerly.  We’ve had a massive push of ocean air inland since midnight, triggered by a passing upper-level trough.  Suddenly we have a 4,000′ deep marine layer in late October.  It should go without saying that we probably won’t see any sun today and high temps will be 15 degrees cooler.  But hey, at least no wind?

 

90 Responses to No Sunshine Today

  1. Pete says:

    Have you been a global-warming skeptic? Good! We should always test science that is new. Richard A. Muller, the noted physicist, was himself skeptical of the climate data he was seeing reported. So a couple of years ago, backed in part by other skeptics (including the Koch brothers), he set out to test the data.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204422404576594872796327348.html

  2. PDX Weather Nut says:

    A few glances of sunshine here today so far but mostly cloudy by in large …

  3. pappoose in scappoose says:

    The Atmospheric River is trying to slide down here and give us a good soaking:

    National Weather Service Portland or
    258 am PDT Friday Oct 21 2011

    Short term…water vapor satellite imagery shows a long plume of
    moisture extending east-northeastward from the west Pacific
    tropics…entrained into a long frontal zone which is about to move
    into western Washington today. Latest AMSU estimates show 1.00-1.25 inch precipitable water values along the front…with the leading edge of this deeper moisture beginning to move east of 130w. This is a very modest atmospheric river scenario…but it still has the potential to produce some decent rainfall totals when the associated frontal zone stalls over western Washington.
    Models are trending a little further south with the heavier rainfall
    totals over the past few runs. However it still looks like the focus
    of the heavier rain will remain north of our area…over Vancouver
    Island and the olympic peninsula. The South Washington coast…
    Willapa Hills…and South Washington Cascades may get clipped with the heavier rain from time to time as the frontal zone undulates
    southward later today…tonight and Saturday. The moist onshore flow will also make rain likely at times for the north Oregon coast…
    with lesser chances further south and east of the Coast Range.

    • W7ENK says:

      Undulating frontal zones are fun to watch! 😀

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      I really like zones of that type!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      The update indicates a little more vigorous frontal system will be brushing some precipitation our way, as it undulates about.

      National Weather Service Portland or
      817 am PDT Friday Oct 21 2011

      Short term…satellite imagery shows a little more vigorous frontal
      system approaching the Pacific northwest this morning…which will affect the Pacific northwest into the weekend. The main energy of the system is moving toward Canada/Washington with a warm front approaching the coast spreading clouds and precipitation ahead of it into western Washington…and brushing some precipitation into our northern zones.

    • W7ENK says:

      Oh yeah, vigorously undulating warm full frontal systems are the best kind, especially when they approach and spread directly into our northern zones!!! 😆

      Well, that or snow. I like snow, if you hadn’t already noticed…

      Okay, I’m done now. o_O

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      I’m just trying to wish any kind of system in here.

  4. PaulB/Eugene says:

    Thursday PM update

    General anesthetic weather for next five days or so…nothing for the senses

    Midweek next week (Tues-Wed)…still think has frost potential…mm5 GFS does not think so…have to wait and see.

    Looking at model runs..GFS, ECMWF, Canadian…looks like transition toward cooler wetter weather in the works around the weekend of Oct 29/30…into Halloween…high temps in low 50s

    ECMWF extended run (if to be believed)…has significantly colder weather by second or third weekend of November….with 850mb temps below -5C.

    Cascades….borderline opportunity for accumulating snow at pass elevation in Oregon for the last few days of October…looking more likely for the first week of November.

    ENSO SSTs dropping over eastern regions……

  5. […] Heaviest Rainfall: 0.10″ at SADDLE MOUNTAIN(3250ft) 0.08″ at CW5507 Camp Sher(3020ft) 0.08″ at MILLER(1031ft) Reply […]

  6. bgb41 says:

    10/20/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:74 at Medford Viaduct(1360 ft) & ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft) & PROVOLT SEED ORC(1180 ft)
    Low: 56 at John Day River B(305 ft) & Rufus 2E(279 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:43 at HOWARD Mt Howard (8150 ft )
    Low: 23 at KLAMATH NWR (4531 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 45 degrees
    Beatty (69/24 ) (4320 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.10″ at SADDLE MOUNTAIN(3250ft)
    0.08″ at CW5507 Camp Sher(3020ft)
    0.08″ at MILLER(1031ft)

  7. W7ENK says:

    http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/Quakes/nc71667591.html

    Another quake in Oakland just a few minutes ago, M4.2

    Glad I’m up here! O_O

  8. The Grist Mill today, added 22 photos.

  9. boringlarry says:

    …sun up here until around 2, now multi-grey with sprinkles, and a warm 60.4 ..I’ve seen a lot of mushrooms come out of the woods today!..

  10. A couple of decent showers have rolled through here. 0.03″ today. Temp reached 60 this morning around 11 but is just 57 now.

    It’s hard to believe our normal now is only in the low 60s anyway.

  11. W7ENK says:

    M3.9 in Oakland a few minutes ago, shook up a couple of my friends down there pretty good!

    http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/Quakes/nc71667366.php

    Two things;
    from Annie A: “All of the gnomes have survived the earthquake!” 😆

    And: Despite any rumors to the contrary, no tsunamis were generated in or around San Francisco Bay. 😉

  12. Punxsutawney (aka HIOPHIL) at work by Sunset High elev ~280' says:

    First forecast of lowland snow, out in La-La.

    • W7ENK says:

      Hmmm… ~ 3 inches mid-day November 1.

      I’d love it! I’ll believe it when I see it…

    • bgb41 says:

      With 850mb temps -4 to -5C, I would suspect this snow would stay above 2000ft

    • W7ENK says:

      Oops, I was off by 12 hours, looks like the date marks are at 00h, not 12h, s0 I guess that would be mid-NIGHT November 1/2.

      Still…

      Looks like Hallowe’en’s gonna be a wet day, 0.75″ rain morning hours, 0.5″ rain daytime, another 0.25″ rain overnight… maybe it’ll push through early for a dry evening? I remember plenty of drown-out trick or treating’s growing up, I survived. 😮

  13. W7ENK says:

    There sure is a significant lack of clouds in that sunny blue sky for such a dreary, rainy day… Yet another forecast blown! Tsk tsk tsk Mark, you’re strikin’ out! 😡

  14. Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

    Noaa just released the winter outlook for 2011-2012 🙂
    http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20111020_winteroutlook.html

  15. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    The GFS sure does seem insistent on keeping things relatively mild through most of the run… Looks like fall will stay relatively warm to seasonable and dry all things considered. Here’s to hoping for a wild winter…

  16. Cpc 3 month forecast for NDJ is out, calling for EC on temps but high precip. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

    • Punxsutawney (aka HIOPHIL) at work by Sunset High elev ~280' says:

      A reasonable La-Nina forecast.

    • W7ENK says:

      So, what I gather from all this is a normal temperature’d November and December, a slightly cooler than normal January, much cooler than normal February, slightly cooler than normal March, and this entire period looks wetter than normal. Looks to me like the bulk of the cold/wet will come just about the time it’s too late in the season for it to matter down low.

      Basically, several close-call valley/lowland non-snow events, with a late season ramping up of mountain snowfall.

      So… kinda-sorta like last winter?

      I hope the cooler than normal and wetter than normal don’t last until early/mid-August again… 😕

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      You can spin anything negative and whiny can’t ya? Must be a real joy to be around in real life. 😉

    • W7ENK says:

      You’re really bad at this whole sarcasm thing, aren’t you Jess?
      It’s a shame…

      You must be really difficult to get along with in real life.
      Would explain a lot. 😉

    • Karl Bonner says:

      After last spring and early summer, I think we’re entitled to a bit of whining at the prospect of another obnoxiously chilly/cloudy/damp MAMJJ, Jesse. The fact that we’ve had a lot of bad luck the past 10-15 years when it comes to spring weather gives us a little bit of license. Not a lot, just a little.

      My favorite outcome would be a much cooler-than-average pattern during the third quarter of winter, followed by an abrupt shift to 60-degree sunshine shortly after Valentine’s Day. Not 45 to 55 in a few days, but a stormy 40 with hilltop snow to a sunny 60 with 850mb heights up around 8-10 C.

      Or we could have a long period of very chilly weather then turn the heat on in late March, getting up to 70-75 degrees.

  17. Like fog? Then you’ll love the 12z ecmwf and its big ridge. Nice prehalloween inversion. Creepy….

    • Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

      No, I like rain.

    • Karl Bonner says:

      What hour of the run is this on?

      I hate to say it but I think I’d enjoy a fogversion in October. Simply because of the unseasonably cold days it would bring. As long as it didn’t go on and on for day after day after day, but only lasted 2 or 3 days.

  18. nick284 says:

    where is all the frost i love and miss 😦 when will we get some

  19. bgb41 says:

    10/19/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:78 at ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft)
    Low: 56 at WA7ZVY-4 Newport(128 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:47 at NORTH FORK(3120 ft) & Government Camp(3600 ft) & Timberline Lodge(7001 ft)
    Low: 25 at CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 42 degrees
    HEREFORD (70/28 ) (3599 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.05″ at LOG CREEK(2800ft)

  20. pappoose in scappoose says:

    GOLU model is operating this eve:

    National Weather Service Portland or
    825 PM PDT Wednesday Oct 19 2011

    Have increased the probability of precipitation over the northern Willamette Valley for this evening due to surface reports and radar…

  21. From my hike to Tamanawas Falls on Monday…

    • bgb41 says:

      I snow shoe’d that trail on Dec 9 2005. That was the best ever!!

    • Karl Bonner says:

      Snow-shoeing that trail sounds awfully scary, unless you can clearly tell where all the bumps and stumps and boulders and drop-offs are. Then again, there are plenty of trails that are worse than Tamanawas in these regards.

    • W7ENK says:

      Great photos, Tyler!

      That’s a very nice waterfall… I can imagine snowshoeing to it would be a great trek! I might have to give that a try. 🙂

    • bgb41 says:

      When I snow shoe’d this, It was during a long “fake cold” spell. I remember it was near 50 at PDX that day. Temps in the upper hood river valley topped out 25-30 with full sunshine and no wind. There was about 2 feet of fresh powder at the trail head.

      here is a photo crossing the bridge on that trail

    • W7ENK says:

      Wow, fluffy!

      Who’s Mustachio? He looks kinda like that one cop-dude from Reno 911! 😆

  22. Mike off Holgate says:

    Mark I saw the sun today in Portland, but hey if you’re going to be wrong that’s the way to do it.

  23. john938 says:

    where is the average snow level going to be for washington this winter some years seem lower then others

    • marinersfan85 says:

      We’ll probably get an idea on were the snow level will be when the winter is over. Can’t predict the storms that will move in throughout the winter right now.

  24. marinersfan85 says:

    Did a little comparing of Last years October to October 2008

    2010
    http://www.beautifulseattle.com/mthsum.asp

    2008
    http://www.beautifulseattle.com/mthsum.asp

    With the rate that this October is going and what the models are showing for the rest of the month, it’s pretty similar to 2008.

    Take it how you will…

  25. johanthan376 says:

    whats my chances of seeing snow this winter if i live at 600 feet in washington please any answers will help

    • marinersfan85 says:

      There is no way of knowing. Just watch the weather and be prepared.

    • Derek Hodges says:

      I think it might be correct to say that although there are no absolutes we can make a pretty good guess. At your elevation with a blocky la nina on tap I would say 80% chance or higher that you see snow at your place(what you asked). Beyond that I can’t say much.

  26. Cliff Gavic 1,100 ft says:

    Two different things:

    It’s 69 and sunny!! In sisters

    A friend of mine told me this afternoon because of the forecast she specifically saw this morning on tv, she left her dogs outside. Only to see this stuff come in.

    Oops! Forecast. Except for NOAA. They called it right.

  27. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Sun is peeking out at times here. Dry.

  28. bgb41 says:

    Getting measurable rain right now at BG Lake.

  29. Try 20 degree cooler! It is annoyingly cold out there today as opposed to yesterday. My body is too acclimated to our small shifts in temperature

  30. Muxpux (Longview) says:

    Mist/drizzle and 55 here in Longview. What a difference a day makes

  31. Karl Bonner says:

    Still sunny and windless in The Dalles…I wonder why the west wind hasn’t kicked up here yet?

  32. Cliff Gavic 1,100 ft says:

    Weather watchers shouldn’t take the weather forecast to the point of threatening someone on a blown forecast.

    Personally, I need the sun for my depression. So on moonscape days here in the Portland/sandy ares, I just click on the odot webcams and view the weather east of the cascades.

    The original forecast from NOAA was some sun on the west side o/the weekend and up to tues.

    Wed (today) clouds and cooler temps were to move in.

    The pictorial forecast from the weather channel and fox 12 showed sun up till Thursday.

    The latter forecast threw me off. So I remembered the original forecast from NOAA, which was right all along.

    As far as local tv stations to watch the weather on: I view channel 12/mark nelsen, and channel (8?) with rod hill, inconjunction with reading the NOAA discussion page. I’ve also periodically read Pete parsons’ ag weather blog.

    It’s been spitting here in sandy.

    Lastly, according to the Internet research weather pages, November is to be warm and dry. Late December, and into January is when the cascades/foothills (1,000 ft) will get some snow again.

  33. Still sunny here, despite the marine intrusion, not sure why didn’t go overcast… But I’ll take it. You can see the marine layer on the webcam

  34. I like the east winds. Actually any big wind is fine with me.. 🙂

    Socked-in 55° currently.

  35. Garron says:

    Dear Mr. Nielsen,

    I was assured that there would be NO RAIN until after noon by you and Mr. Biran Mac Milan, and yet there was a fine mist on my windshield this morning. My wife just had her hair done and it will be ruined by this forecasting disaster!!! I talk before I think I am and you are also, too!!!! Please put this red mark on your forecasting report card.

    Sincerely,

    DR. Zero, MGD.

  36. gidrons says:

    GFS looks fairly dry long term for us. Good thing it wasn’t a Detroit/Milwaukie world series, or there may have been snow-outs. The North American pattern looks oddly similar to last December when the east coast was getting buried.

  37. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    I ❤ clouds…. 🙂

  38. boringlarry says:

    1st!
    ….still sunny up here, but i can se the wall of clouds approaching…

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