Feels Like Fall Now Doesn’t It?

 We had a nice early Fall storm today out along the coastline.  Peak wind gusts in the populated areas were generally around 50 mph, but the usual exposed spots made it up into the 60-70 mph range.  The highest I saw was at the Barview Jetty…73 mph. 

Here in the valleys most locations were in the 25-30 mph range.  This was a “southeasterly” storm where the deep center of low pressure was a long ways off and the gradient wasn’t straight southerly up the valley.  In that case our wind generally doesn’t get too wild in the valleys.

Pretty quiet weather the next few days.  We get our first “Fall East Wind” Wednesday.  By that I mean high pressure develops to the north and then quickly flops down east of the mountains.  WRF-GFS shows 40kts. easterly wind at about 2,000′ over Portland later Wednesday and Wednesday night.  The first day of wind (Wednesday) won’t be too warm, but a nice day.  850mb temps zoom up into the upper teens range by Thursday afternoon though!  Our forecast of 78 might be too cool.

The biggest story when I look ahead at the weather maps is that no one pattern or weather lasts for very long.  It’s looking much more changeable.  From trough to ridge to trough.  Some model runs have a deep low close to the West Coast early next week.  Others don’t; but something to watch.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

106 Responses to Feels Like Fall Now Doesn’t It?

  1. Ken (S. Salem 500ft) says:

    Hi Everyone! I am glad to see the change of seasons. As much as I love sun and warm…i love storms and winter more. Here’s hoping 2011/2012 is one for the books. 🙂

  2. Boydo3 N. Albany 500' says:

    If the EU verifies we could see the REAL FALL in about 7 or 8 days.

  3. Tyler in Battle Ground says:

    49.3 here

  4. Tyler in Battle Ground says:

    Already down to 50.3 here…

  5. PaulB/Eugene says:

    Just read J.Bastardi’s winter forecast for 2011-12….if he is right, looks like No Snow will have a rather busy time trying to convince PDX residents that it doesn’t snow down low.

    • bgmike says:

      Is there a link?

    • PaulB/Eugene says:

      he left accuweather last spring…now works with Joe D’Aleo at weather bell.com……paid 16.99/mo starting this month to get his blogs through this winter….will cancel subscription in Jan once we get through the heart of winter. So much to learn, so little time….arctic oscillation, eastern pacific oscillation, northern atlantic oscillation, atlantic multidecadal oscillation, pacific decadal oscillation, north pacific oscillation…reading his blogs helps me learn this stuff… on top of all that ENSO/SOI/MEI stuff…
      Anyway…looks good…for PacNW…Nov…Dec…Jan…each 0 to 2F below normal region wide, then -2 to -4F or even lower departures for Feb…Mar. Basically North Dakota SW to OR/CA border and points NW will be the coldest relative to normal in the lower 48 from Nov-Mar
      Time will tell…

  6. But I think the fog will form and that will keep it from getting too cool.

  7. It’s going to be a chilly night!

  8. No Snow says:

    Good Evening!!! 🙂

    It is time for my yearly check in.

    Mark, I missed you!

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Oh no…we all missed you too!

    • Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

      Is it really that time of the year already 🙂

    • No Snow says:

      Hmm. Probably not. It doesn’t snow in Portland. :-). Have you seen all those sunspots?

      I’ll say if it snows more than 1″ to the valley floor I’ll take you to Ruth’s Chris.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      “…it doesn’t snow in Portland…”

      The 1.8″ officially recorded in Portland last winter would disagree with you.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      And in 2008 we all had a big one! Mark was it something like 25″ or 30″ that December?

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Oh yeah! That was the one where NO SNOW or SOUTHWIND or whoever it was got really quiet and disappeared when the snow/cold started up. 24″ that winter if I recall correctly. 10″ or so from one storm.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Greetings No Snow, good to see you.

      I think that was snow boy, or BOB or…something like that (who disappeared). I miss those guys as well.

    • No Snow says:

      New year, no snow. 🙂

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Yeah who knows, that big blast was afterall ‘only’ 3 years ago. Not often we get much snow after an event like that. We could infact have no snow at all until the following couple winters after this.

    • Boydo3 N. Albany 500' says:

      Is it the gray skies, drizzle, SW winds or what? Bloggers are starting to reappear and tizzy fits are beginning again on the Blog. Its like lightnin’ on a hot summer’s night! Yeehaw!!

  9. Beautiful sunset in progress right now!

  10. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    One thing I gotta say before I log off for the evening… Timmy (Scappoose) is very right on. So true.

    And I hope to get that windstorm! Goonight ya all

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      No one needs to be decapitated just because they feel like being wishful of a big windstorm that they see on GFS or EURO. Really.

  11. boringlarry says:

    …jeez, get down to phone signal land, and all I can say it sure is nice, quiet and non-arguementative up at ripplebrook….where the bbq is hot and the beer cold at the bottom of the cliff, plus, I’m thinking of an escalator to make those trudges back up a bit easier….
    …be good humans, folks…..

  12. Kyle says:

    Looks like those pranksters that bother me are at it again on here! I hate this world.

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