Coastal Radar Arrives

We finally received our first returns from the Ocean Shores radar site in the past 24 hours.  It will be officially operational about a week from now.  It’s located somewhere between Copalis Beach, Ocean Shores, and Hoquiam, on a place called Langley Hill that no one has heard of, but Ocean Shores is the closest well-known town.  This is the first radar located on the coastline north of Eureka, California.  Now it’s not quite God’s gift to Northwest Weather forecasting…I don’t want to imply we’ll have perfect forecasts in the future (like you were even thinking that…).  But here’s how I see it helping:

1.  A much better view of cold fronts coming in from the northwest.

2. We’ll be able to see exactly where low pressure centers are that move offshore near Tillamook, Astoria, or Ocean Shores…all the way up to Cape Flattery.  And we’ll be able to see that clearly 100+ miles offshore.

3.  Vastly improved look at showers/rain on the North Oregon Coast and Long Beach (in our viewing area).  The Portland radar has significant gaps at the lowest scan looking to the west and northwest.

4.  Vastly improved look at showers coming across the Willapa Hills towards Longview;  it drives me nuts when I see a wall of rain suddenly appear in a line from Longview to Olympia heading from west to east.

5.  With the polarimetric scanning, we should know what the snow level is offshore (and onshore) as those cold showers and fronts come in from the northwest.

Now we just need decent radar coverage over NOAA’s new home port down in Newport…there is no good low-level coverage from the Central Oregon Coast down to Brookings.  But that seems extremely unlikely with our current economic climate of course.

Enjoy the next two days (the last two) of summery weather.  All models show a cold front coming in on Sunday.  It may not be the beginning of an extended period of heavy rain, but we may not see 80+ again this season.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

259 Responses to Coastal Radar Arrives

  1. Garron says:

    It seems that summer isn’t lost, just yet. Only see 3 days of cooler/wetter weather then back to mid/upper 70’s the rest of the week! Good news for the rest of the garden. 🙂

  2. boringlarry says:

    …nice seeing everyone today, there was a light rain t-storm up here around 6 or so…..

  3. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Special weather statement:

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    852 PM PDT SAT SEP 24 2011

    …A DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE WEATHER EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON SUNDAY AND MONDAY…
    A PAIR OF EARLY AUTUMN STORMS WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN AND WIND TO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY.
    THE FIRST STORM IS JUST OFF THE COAST THIS SATURDAY EVENING…AND WILL SWING ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RATHER STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST WITH STRONG GALES OVER THE
    COASTAL WATER…AND EVEN GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH ALONG THE COASTAL BEACHES AND HEADLANDS. RAIN WILL SPREAD ONSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT
    TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING…TURNING TO SHOWERS
    IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
    THE NEXT STRONG SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD MORE RAIN ONSHORE EARLY MONDAY. STRONG GALES ARE LIKELY
    AGAIN ALONG THE COAST…WITH WINDY CONDITIONS NEAR THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS. THE RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN DECREASE BY TUESDAY.

    • W7ENK says:

      :yawn:

      So basically, Fall is arriving on schedule, and it’s going to rain?

      :yawn:

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      I know, not that big of a deal, but I like to see the Fall storms starting up. Something to watch for a change, W7.

    • Kyle says:

      WOO HOO! 😮 Just when I was assuming we would all shrivel up and die from the extreme dryness. Thank GOODNESS!!

      Maybe my parents will stop sneezing at all the hay so much and my nose will not be so darn clogged. 🙂 🙂

    • Kyle says:

      I almost forgot to mention don’t forget to check out the Maritime Museum streaming cam in Astoria for when those gales hit the beach!

      Here comes fall!

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      I see the whiny season is arriving right on schedule for some of our posters!

      :yawn:

    • o.c.paul says:

      Fall/Winter rules, Spring/Summer drools. IMHO

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Right Kyle, now all we need is the cold to go along with the moisture. I know, too early for this kind of thinking.

    • Garron says:

      I love it!!! SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT = rain!!! Well….Isnt’ THAT SPECIAL!!!!!

      Glad to see our new radar getting a good test the next couple of days, maybe a stray albino tomorrow as well…

      http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/pacnorthwest_loop.php

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Unique posts there o.c. paul and Jesse! lol

    • W7ENK says:

      Unique? All I see is the same useless non-weather related drivel coming out of Jesse as usual… hardly unique, Timmy.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      As you can see, the webs between my fingers are desperate for some wetter weather.

      http://ts1.mm.bing.net/images/thumbnail.aspx?q=1190606614228&id=5d2604c305307ee45155c1efdedd16c4

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Mee-owww! Can we get a saucer of milk with that?

      Just seems silly to already be complaining about the rain. What kind of weather would you like to see at this point? This is already on track to be one of our warmest Septembers on record. Heaven forbid we see some Fall like weather before the month is over!

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      That reply was for whine7 for the record. Keep up the good posts pappoose!

    • W7ENK says:

      I wasn’t complaining, Jess. Stop trying to pick a fight and stick to the weather. Jesus, I’m back for less than a week and already I’ve got both you AND Rob trying to crawl up my @$$… Whiskey Tango Foxtrot?!?

      Mark, didn’t you just ban this asshat, or did his probation finally expire? Time to reconsider??

    • Karl Bonner says:

      Jesse, I don’t think anybody on here is actually whining about the change in weather. It’s quite rude to start pulling these kind of allegations out of the magician’s hat.

      That being said, there is at least a microscopic grain of truth to your assumptions. Given how warm September has been thus far, it’s easy to get greedy and hope for things to be even more extremely warm than they already are. It’s the same kind of irrational exuberance responsible for speculative bubbles in the business world.

      The fact is that any kind of cool weather WILL put downward pressure on the running temperature average for the month of September. That’s exactly what the word “average” ultimately implies. If the next few days are cooler than the first 24 days averaged out, the running average decreases as these days are added to the sample. But on TV tonight, Mark mentioned that if the projected temps for the next 6 days turn out to be exactly correct, Portland still ends up with the 3rd warmest September ever. Keep in mind that meteorological spring this year was only the fourth coldest ever.

      And a couple days ago I mentioned that we haven’t seen a truly warm October in the PNW for many years now, at least not one that is concentrated in the high temps. In 2003 we had an October with lots of warm nights that pulled up the mean temperature, but consistently average days and balmy nights don’t tend to impress most people – especially since the usual culprit is cloud cover that inhibits cooling at night. We’re due for a warm one sooner or later.

      And if you take a look at the past 4-5 weeks, it looks a lot like a mirror image of this spring and early summer. A powerful ridgy pattern has dominated the West Coast for much of this period, bringing VERY warm temps to us. The cool spells in between the heat waves have been modest and brief: after 2-4 slightly autumnal days we rebound into a very summery pattern.

      To put it on a timeline:

      |—————-very warm——————|—med. cool—|————-very warm————–|–med. cool–|—————–very warm—————-|

      And the next 7 days seem to continue the pattern: only 3 chilly days and then we’re back to at least moderately warm conditions. I’m not saying it’s definitely going to continue the trend deep into October, but given how amplified the upper-level undulations are expected to remain over the next 10 days or so, the potential for such an outcome definitely exists.

      It all boils down to the positioning of the ridge: too far east and we get a very chilly trough. Too far west, and early-season continental polar air from Canada likely spills into the interior PNW. But if the positioning is just right, we get one of the best Indian Summers ever!

    • bgb41 says:

      Only 482 words in that post Karl. Not too long ….lol

    • I just wake up and read this? … I have made efforts to be civil towards you, Erik, but you’re making that quite difficult with your comments above. Why are you even mentioning me? ….

      So I have come to conclusions about two ways I can handle this.

      1) I ignore you not wanting to play childish games and you just do your usual thing which means you end up leaving.
      2) I tell you to go F#*K yourself.

      I can’t decide….

      Be very clear. I’m not in the mood for any crap, understand? If you want to post about the weather, you are more than welcome to. If you want to provoke me for no reason, find the door.

      Thank you.

    • Maybe that was a little harsh? Just grow up, man. No one has anytime for crap.

    • W7ENK says:

      WOW, good God, man! And you say I need to chill?!?

      Thanks for only furthering my point, Rob. Much appreciated.

      http://inws.wrh.noaa.gov/weather/alertinfo/4006565
      http://inws.wrh.noaa.gov/weather/alertinfo/4006990
      http://inws.wrh.noaa.gov/weather/alertinfo/4012358

      How ’bout we all forget I ever tried to point out ridiculousness of the NWS announcing that it’s going to rain in the Pacific Northwest with a (repeated) SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT and move on…

      Good grief! 😦

  4. Kyle says:

    What will that low off of 42% north likely do to affect us?

  5. Forgot to ask at the meeting today. Wondering if anyone else saw what a neighbor & I saw last night while looking for the satellite.

    Directly south an object moved from E to W at an amazing speed.

    Looked somewhat like a 55 gallon drum tipped on its side. The air behind it had a cloudy look like one would see when looking up at the milky way.

    It was not a shooting star…traveled on a completely horizontal plane & moved faster than anything I have ever seen

    Was great seeing new faces….hope I can attend again soon 🙂

  6. pappoose in scappoose says:

    LOOK! Some Strays roaming about!

  7. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Have to have these things plugged into an outlet so that I can keep the hobo spiders away from my room….. So far it seems to be working. Haven’t seen one in a couple weeks.

  8. W7ENK says:

    Things are lookin’ and soundin’ kinda thunderstormy to my S-SSE…

    Yes, I did hear thunder!

    O_O

  9. Showers and even a few weak t-storms have developed the past 2 hours under southerly flow. Lightning detection confirms this.

    00z Mesoanalysis
    500-750J/kg MUCAPE over the area, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES 7.8C/km, LI -3 to -4, EFFECTIVE SHEAR 55kts, and PWAT VALUES .94″ …. I don’t think we can rule out a shower this evening and a slight chance of t-storms especially Foothills/Cascades.

  10. Tyler in Battle Ground says:

    Made it to 80.7 today. Currently 77.5. The dp is 61.6…yuck!

  11. 85.9°/52.2° here today. Currently down to 81.6° with a lot more clouds around.

  12. 100 degrees at Lewiston, Idaho…latest on record for this kind of warmth…at least as far as I can tell.

  13. Some lenticular photos from the 22nd up at Mt. Rainier:

  14. I am watching the low developing offshore near 42 N, 135 W http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/loopsat.php?wfo=pqr&area=nw&type=wv&size=4
    Kind of fun to see these now that we’re into Fall.

  15. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    I thought the same thing… But with the quick burn off I think 82-83 is still achievable.

  16. Steve Pierce says:

    AMS MEETING / BLOGGER APPRECIATION MEETING AT 12 NOON TODAY = STARK STREET PIZZA! BE THERE!

    We have tons of very cool KPTV prizes to raffle off, including free pizza and bing lounge passes! There is even going to be some weather instruments to give away! Everyone is welcome! For more info see: http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon/

    Come one, come all! There will also be a VERY special guest appearance today by someone you all know and love! Don’t miss this meeting! It is casual and laid back! All ages welcome! There is also some “breaking weather news” that we will be discussing!

    Steve
    Oregon AMS President

    • Steve Pierce says:

      By the way, I forgot to mention that a few of the Tyler Mode weather calendars will also be raffled off. These things are VERY cool!

  17. Who’s heading to the meeting today???????????????????

    I am

  18. So much for waking to mostly sunny skies, but I’m not complaining. It is very October like out there reminiscent of Halloween with the Fog patches thick at times and the mist. Definitely not hitting the forecast 83 today(6z shows 86) I would guesstimate 74-77.

    • Marc (East Vancouver) says:

      What was the actual high temp? I know it was warmer than 74. I looked and saw it was in the 80’s at one point.

  19. Sandi (Wilsonville) says:

    Dense fog this morning in Wilsonville.

  20. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Was ready to salvage space debris yesterday. Had a shovel, gloves (it would be hot), firefighting equipment (still dry in the woods), and weaponry (to fight off thieves). But alas, it cleared my property somehow.

    On a more positive note, I didn’t have any vampire bats fly into me and subsequently bite/suck blood (thanks for the warning Rob, I hadn’t considered this very real possibility).

    60.3 degrees in the land of gravelly plains, foggy.

  21. bgb41 says:

    9/24/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:99 at DW1597 Troy(1612 ft)
    Low: 65 at RIDDLE MTN.(6352 ft) & BLACK MTN RIDGE(4965 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:48 at Timberline Lodge(7001 ft)
    Low: 27 at Mazama (4590 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 61 degrees
    CW1043 La Pine (90/29 ) (4203 ft )

  22. 00z GFS for Astoria looks like possible high winds Monday
    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kast
    Will need to see what the higher resolution WRF shows later

  23. I have been outside since 9 PM and have not seen any indication of the satellite debris overhead. They said to look outside especially around 9:17 PM. Notta…. They hyped this up for 3-4 days. Fail. Dud. BORING.

  24. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) elevation 189' says:

    18z GFS has almost 5.5″ of rain the next 16 days.

    Yes it’s the 18z.

    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Kpdx

    • Karl Bonner says:

      The already changed to the 00Z. Only 2″ of rain there, but look at the temps for Mon/Tue! Highs in the mid to upper 50s! Can’t get much colder than that in September.

  25. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Oh I completely did not know CFS model stood for “Climate Forecast System” model. Hmm, learn something new every day.

  26. Kyle says:

    I see a bunch of darkish looking clouds or smoke to the south of me.

    Is there any stray albino donkeys running about?

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      That is just smoke.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Smoke from field burning in Marion County

    • Kyle says:

      Thanks Mark but it’s gone now. It went as quickly as it came. Weird smoke that’s for sure.

    • Kyle says:

      This time of year (correct me if I am wrong) but I believe Marion County has burn bans.

      I know at least in the summer time they ban burning all summer long and when caught they can issue fines though I am not sure how thin the enforcement is.

    • W7ENK says:

      Okay, I’ll correct you. 😉

      While yes, most counties in Oregon impose burn bans during the summer, especially while the weather is hot and dry and fire danger is extremely high, summer is now over and we are into harvest time.

      Traditionally, burn bans are lifted around September 15th (in most counties), though this year it was held over for about a week in Clackamas County because our hot and dry weather came on late. I can’t tell you specifically about Marion County, but I’m sure you can find it on your County/Local Fire District website, or you could always call and ask.

      I would imagine after all the rain we got last weekend, most burning restrictions have been allowed to expire.

      http://www.wvfra.com/

      http://www.wvfra.com/community-resources/burn-ban-information/

  27. Jory (Sandy) says:

    Looks like Wunderground now has access to the Langley Radar:
    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/map.asp

    Also, I guess now it’s Seattle’s turn to not have Radar coverage for a while, while they upgrade their radar.

  28. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    February could be a soaker!!

    ^_^

  29. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    The CFS does not do once a month, it does from Sep 25th all the way through June 24th next year. If you notice everytime you go to the next minute on the link, it skips 12 hours ahead, so basically every two hours on this run skips you through one day.

    10HR puts you at 00Z Sep 25

    And 11HR puts you at 12Z Sep 25

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Divide 554 by 2, and that gave me 277. That’s about how many days you have access to on this model.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Ahh, i didn’t mean next ‘minute’ but ‘hour’

      I’m full of tricks today 🙂

    • bryanbdo@yahoo.com says:

      What I meant is that they actually run the model once per month. So day one is not “today”, it was the day that it ran. So if you look at what it is saying for day 30, it will be day 30 from the day it ran, which would not be today unless it was the day it actually ran. They will run it again next month. And next time it will probably show a lot different weather for December and January then it did this time. I have been looking at this model for years, but don’t take it that seriously. I think the point of a model like this is to look at general trends.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      And THAT would be why it’s called the CLIMATE forecast system (CFS).

  30. Muxpux says:

    Just got done doin some work for a family friend up in castle rock, 87 DP 65 there. Ughh, doesnt take much to sweat when it’s that sticky. I think I lost a couple pounds

  31. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    This CFS model goes ALL THE WAY to June 24th 2012…… Can this even be reliable….

    On the link it goes from 10HR to 554HR

    • WeatherLurker says:

      Looks like another crappy Junuary. =( lol

    • Brian in Bellingham says:

      They don’t run that model every day, I think it is just once per month, so the days wont exactly match with todays date.

      The Euro really long range model shows us a lot colder. Here is a column talking about what the Euro shows. Keep in mind Brett Anderson blogs about Canadian weather, so the states don’t get mentioned, and also keep in mind the graphics are his interpertation of the Euro model. But if the Euro is right, it could be a fun winter for all of us in the PNW.

      http://tinyurl.com/3cc2x6o

    • PaulB/Eugene says:

      Euro run out to one month (run yesterday) has rather active weather pattern in October, with a few lows toward Vanc Is, significant precipitation, with first widespread frosts during about three weeks into the month.

      There are not that many negative PDO/positive AMO/negative ENSO/low solar years to compare to….who knows what winter will bring. Best guess is cold pole of America will be northern plains/great lakes, and that we may tap into the cold for an outbreak or two at some point. Give me a December 1919 and I’ll be happy.

  32. Bill Gannon (Corvallis) says:

    First off with so many log on’s to various sites one becomes confused as to where one is, so should my previous post make this blog well I’ll have two log on’s.
    May I suggest Mary’s Peak http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marys_Peak

  33. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    KPDT NEXRAD RADAR dual polarization upgrade will be in progress starting today 2
    3 Sept. 2011 with downtime expected to be approximately 12 days. No RADAR produ
    cts will be available until completion of the dual polarization upgrade. JLB

    ———————————–

    THE KATX RADAR IS GOING DOWN FOR THE NEXT 12 DAYS SO IT CAN BE UPGRADED FOR DUAL
    POLARIZATION TECHNOLOGY. THE RADAR WILL BE GOING DOWN SHORTLY THIS MORNING, FRI
    DAY SEPTEMBER 23RD AND WILL POTENTIALLY BE OUT OF SERVICE THROUGH WEDNESDAY OCTO
    BER 5TH. DURING THIS PERIOD THE NEW LANGLEY HILL RADAR ON THE WASHINGTON COAST
    AND THE PORTLAND RADAR WILL BE OPERATIONAL.

    • Bunch of crap. They should have scheduled this during the Summer when it is far more likely to have a long dry stretch, NOT as we are into Fall now. Major mistake….

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      But for a while we kept getting scattered convection in the region for the second half of summer, and down here one could say… it didn’t stop!!!

      LOL all jokes aside yeah it is better doing it then instead of now. Very true.

    • Ya I would still say this is the best time. We are in general out of the summer convection season, plus we may get a weather system or two to come in, but nothing that has the potential for flooding, low snow levels etc.

  34. HAHA, Rob, take a look at your CFS model for the end of October 🙂

  35. bill gannon corvallis says:

    Radar coverage for Newport should have placed on Mary’s Peak, County of Benton, State of Oregon. At 4092 feet above sea level there is no interference till the Cascade Mountains. On a clear day you can see the Pacific Ocean and the ridge line of the Cascades.
    At night you can see the lights of the Portland Metro area to the north and Roseburg to the south.

    On a lighter note just wish Comca$t would let Benton county watch KPTV, they let Linn County have access.

  36. 12z GFS Data for Troutdale
    Check out the monster trough in la-la land
    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kttd
    850mb temp 0c. 500mb thickness down to 535

  37. scott says:

    Just wish the new coastal radar was more centrally located for the northwest ,like Astoria maybe…..Since most of our strong wind storms are out of the south Not the northwest direction .

  38. Just for giggles check out the 6z Extracted Data output
    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kttd
    Next Friday looks like fun. 850mb 0c, 500mb thickness 538.
    Snow for Government Camp?

  39. Karl Bonner says:

    Well at least The Dalles is in a better position to get 80s in October than Portland is. But I’ll accept a bunch of days in the 70s, just so long as the general trend over the next few weeks is above average temps.

    We are definitely due for a warm October in the Pacific Northwest. I can’t remember the last time that happened.

  40. bgmike says:

    Summary for period 6/21/2011 to 9/22/2011 (Summer)
    Temperature (°F):
    Mean (1 minute) 64.7
    Mean (min+max) 65.4
    Mean Minimum 52.5
    Mean Maximum 78.3
    Minimum 42.4 on 6/25/2011
    Maximum 96.3 on 8/20/2011
    Highest Minimum 63.7 on 8/23/2011
    Lowest Maximum 59.9 on 9/17/2011
    Air frosts 0
    Rainfall (in):
    Total for period 1.79
    Wettest day 0.56 on 7/17/2011
    High rain rate 0.48 day 7/17/2011
    Rain days 15
    Wind (mph):
    Highest Gust 20.6 on 7/7/2011
    Average Speed 1.8
    Wind Run 3437.3 miles
    Gale days 0
    Pressure (mb):
    Maximum 1018.2 on 9/2/2011
    Minimum 999.6 on 6/28/2011

  41. bgb41 says:

    Bizarre nocurnal max temp for the day at 11pm tonight at Bellingham.. They got rain most of the day with a high temp of 70. It then dropped to the mid 60s after dark. Now as the strong low in the gulf moves inland to the north it has created a strong downsloping SSE wind and now its a bizarre 72 degrees at 11pm there.

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=mso&sid=KBLI&num=48&raw=0&dbn=m

  42. A humid 65° with a Td of 59.5

  43. bgb41 says:

    9/22/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:95 at PROVOLT SEED ORC(1180 ft)
    Low: 65 at QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:59 at Timberline Lodge(7001 ft)
    Low: 29 at Mazama (4590 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 56 degrees
    CABIN LAKE (88/32 ) (4560 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.04″ at MEARES Cape Mear(1421ft)

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