Coastal Radar Arrives

We finally received our first returns from the Ocean Shores radar site in the past 24 hours.  It will be officially operational about a week from now.  It’s located somewhere between Copalis Beach, Ocean Shores, and Hoquiam, on a place called Langley Hill that no one has heard of, but Ocean Shores is the closest well-known town.  This is the first radar located on the coastline north of Eureka, California.  Now it’s not quite God’s gift to Northwest Weather forecasting…I don’t want to imply we’ll have perfect forecasts in the future (like you were even thinking that…).  But here’s how I see it helping:

1.  A much better view of cold fronts coming in from the northwest.

2. We’ll be able to see exactly where low pressure centers are that move offshore near Tillamook, Astoria, or Ocean Shores…all the way up to Cape Flattery.  And we’ll be able to see that clearly 100+ miles offshore.

3.  Vastly improved look at showers/rain on the North Oregon Coast and Long Beach (in our viewing area).  The Portland radar has significant gaps at the lowest scan looking to the west and northwest.

4.  Vastly improved look at showers coming across the Willapa Hills towards Longview;  it drives me nuts when I see a wall of rain suddenly appear in a line from Longview to Olympia heading from west to east.

5.  With the polarimetric scanning, we should know what the snow level is offshore (and onshore) as those cold showers and fronts come in from the northwest.

Now we just need decent radar coverage over NOAA’s new home port down in Newport…there is no good low-level coverage from the Central Oregon Coast down to Brookings.  But that seems extremely unlikely with our current economic climate of course.

Enjoy the next two days (the last two) of summery weather.  All models show a cold front coming in on Sunday.  It may not be the beginning of an extended period of heavy rain, but we may not see 80+ again this season.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

259 Responses to Coastal Radar Arrives

  1. Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

    Come on guys .We just barely started the fall season & there’s a lot to be excited about. The blog drama is taking the fun out of model riding & commenting about it 😦

    • W7ENK says:

      Mike, I’m not trying to bring “drama”, but every time I say something since I came back, Rob feels the need to jump my $***… I don’t get it, but it’s almost like he’s trying to tell me (passive aggressively) that I’m not welcome?

      I’ll let Mark make that decision. This isn’t Rob’s show.

    • The 2 trolls who are causing problems reply to you of course dragging my name around. Why don’t you both get lost. Seriously. If you are bored find something constructive to do. Intentionally trying to piss someone off isn’t one of those things.

    • W7ENK says:

      Dammit Rob, what the hell is your problem???

      Seems you’re following me around trying to chase me off with “troll” and “get lost” and “go f*** yourself”… Seriously???

      You’re out of line Rob! Knock this crap off, now! You’re damaging your credibility… and you say I need to grow up? Lay off me, @$$hole!

  2. PaulB/Eugene says:

    China- Double Ninth Festival (October 5, 2011)
    The Double Ninth Festival, also known as the Double Yang fetival, takes place on the ninth day of the ninth month in the Chinese calendar, which is October 5 in the Gregorian Calendar in 2011. It is a traditional Chinese Holiday. According to the I Ching, nine is a yang number, so the ninth day of the ninth lunar month has too much yang and is potentially dangerous. It is customary to climb a high mountain, drink chrysanthemum wine, and wear the plant Cornus officinalis for protection, as well as to visit the graves ancestors to pay respects.

    Double Nine…double low…..windstorm cancel

  3. 00z GFS wind storm alert! October 3rd – 4th


    Strong low roughly 978-980mb. Nice track, trajectory, 500mb trough is dug right along the Coast and is sharp with the low swinging right around the base…. This is looking promising… Me likey. Higher res WRF I bet this is sub 972mb.

    • PaulB/Eugene says:

      W I

    • 00z WRF will be interesting to see how compact the low is, if its a single parent low structure or double barreled, forward motion, and ultimate depth. It could be sub 970mb….

    • 500mb trough axis position is ideal…. it would keep the low closer to the Coast.

    • At any rate it’s way, way out there, but we need to watch future model runs.

    • PaulB/Eugene says:

      Still a ways to go….pattern conducive to developing a good storm…180knot jet, deep trough….every year there are a few windows of opportunity for a windstorm to develop…this is one of those…most of the time nothing major or exciting happens. But every once in a while…
      Still remember on KATU..watching some TV show and seeing the High Wind Warning scrolling on the bottom of the screen…back in Nov 81…..

    • Derek Hodges says:

      I would say the active jet so early is a sign of an active winter to come. Hopefully in a good way!

    • W7ENK says:

      ▄███▄ █ █ █ █ █ █ ▄███▄ ▄███▄ ████▄ █ █ █
      █ █ █ █ ██ ██ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █
      █ █ █████ █ █ █ █ █ ▄▄ █ █ █ █ █ █ █
      █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █
      ▀███▀ █ █ █ █ █ ▀███▀ ▀███▀ ████▀ █ █ █

    • W7ENK says:

      ^^^

      Hahaha! yeah, that worked out well… o_O

    • W7ENK says:

      What I meant to say was:

      OH MY GOD!!!

      SOUND THE ALARM, ROB!!! IT’S THE FIRST DEEP LOW MODELED FOR THE SEASON, SO IT’S BOUND TO HAPPEN!!!

      ALERT! ALERT! ALERT! ALERT! ALERT! ALERT! ALERT! ALERT!

    • AdamInAumsville says:

      Winning!

    • It isn’t only me saying this, Erik. We’re going into great detail and thorough discussion on the Fox12 Blog Discussion Facebook group. 12z runs today have been rather consistent. 00z EURO last night started it off especially 500mb trough position. You’re really getting on my nerves with your trolling, Erik. Time to grow up.

    • W7ENK says:

      Whoa whoa whoa! Hold up… I’m just trying to have fun, Rob. Trying to get back into the grove here on the blog, ya know? I’ve been away all summer, haven’t you missed me??

      And what’s with this “trolling” word??? I’m not trolling, It’s called sarcasm, something I’m apparently notorious for. I just don’t want anyone to think I’m being an alarmist or anything, ya know, “sounding the alert!”

      Lighten up, Rob. Your getting your panties in a bunch for no reason.

    • Kyle says:

      We’ll be in Yachats at that time while our bathrooms get remodeled! 😮

      Did I mention dad painted the bathrooms two weekend ago and I LOVE the sky blue color.

      The most positive experience in my entire life since I’ve been bounced from one flustering experience to another in life.

      It really is amazing how for some people life is like a giant Disneyland while others bounce from one negative experience to another or have nothing but set backs.

      Our bathroom remodeling had nothing but setbacks even though Dad has VERY good credit ratings so we are doing the bathrooms on our own with a company.

      At the very least I am glad to have a painted bathroom to smile every time I go in.

    • ? I’ll let someone else post it then, k? Then you 2 trolls can be sarcastic or nitpick them.

    • W7ENK says:

      Wait, what? Who else are you trying to call a troll?

      Yev?

      Kyle??

      Neither one of them is a troll, Rob. That’s not very nice. Unless of course ANYONE who disagrees with you or challenges what you consider a done deal is a troll in your mind? That might make sense…

      Stop while you’re ahead before you work yourself into another frenzy, ‘kay? 🙄

    • Who said I was predicting it? I’m merely providing model analysis. I’m not some rookie who doesn’t have a clue what I’m talking about either. I don’t appreciate or have time for the sarcastic disrespect. Therefore, yes you are trolling. I had no idea talking about WEATHER taking the time to provide my analysis would lead to a bunch of s*#t either….

    • W7ENK says:

      Jezuz Rob, calm yourself down! What the hell, man???

      One, no one accused you of wishcasting, I just casually interjected with a little sarcastic dissent, NOT disrespect. Get over yourself, for the love of Blog!

      Two, no one said anything about “predicting”, you brought that word up yourself. Is that what you’re doing? Are you predicting a windstorm?? If so, then call the Tyree and Mark, because your years of weather prowess just might trump that of the big guys. You might just be on to something Rob, maybe they don’t see what your well-trained eye sees???

      Or not… I call bust, that’s all. Are you going to call me pessimistic again??? Maybe I’m being cautious, considering last winter was a series of busts, even after you “sounded the alert” on just about every last wind gust and snowflake that didn’t fall in Portland, remember?

      Cautiously optimistic, my @$$. And you call me an alarmist, HA!

      It’s ONE model run, Rob. Let me know when the wind on the coast is approaching 130+ 🙄

    • Boydo3 N. Albany 500' says:

      Rob, I think Erik was only having a bit O fun! His tank was a bust tho. Or whatever is was.
      So…….
      Wen you tink yor in da pink
      and your bote’s abote to sink,
      ya just mite want to tink
      abote havin a nudder drink!
      But if yor drink is soda
      and yor best frend is da yoda,
      ya jus mite go a runnin
      in a flashy green toyota
      PEACE

    • ? Yev, what the hell are you talking about? I said I’m not a rookie, what does this have to do with a forecast contest? Nice failed effort to try to manipulate that though. It was a forecast contest? Do find something to do with you are bored. You remind me of some teenager who’s using Mommy’s computer and acting like some punk.

    • Josh (Gresham) says:

      This is just stupid, what are you guys 5? He posted analysis of something that bears watching, and has shown up on multiple model runs… And no, you were’t discussing it, you were just attacking him and acting immatrue as hell. Grow up, this is why the blog has slowed way down and the facebook group is great for discussing these things. Damn people never grow up

  4. .32″ rain today, peak gust 30 mph, little tamer than yesterday

  5. Hoping 00z tonight reveals some excitement ahead in the October 3rd – 6th time frame.

  6. Jbpdx says:

    Is this the storm that wasn’t? We’ve had .03 of rain total (Aloha/Hillsboro) as of 18:30 Monday (that includes Sunday), which is fine by me. Sat/radar looks like it’s petering out. Starting to remind me of that winter a few years back when storms would come in with practically no rain.

  7. Austin (Cornelius) says:

    is there a link to the live radar feed for both radars along the washington coast and here? like the older version of this site did? or does it no longer exist at all?

  8. Austin (Cornelius) says:

    wind is picking up greatly here in cornelius.

  9. Jeremy says:

    70 MPH gust on Mt.Hebo

  10. Garron says:

    The highest wind gust measured at the school by my house shows a gust of 28 mph from the SSE. 0.07″ of precip. High so far of 70.7, currently 69.9.

    The highest gust I’ve noticed along the coast came from Cape Meares 1421′ ele. 61 mph gust around 1:07 PM today.

    • Garron says:

      ***Update***

      Just had a gust to 32 MPH.

      Envious of our neighbors to the south, looks like it was a nicer day from Salem south with brighter skies, temps in the mid to upper 70’s today.

  11. Wendy-Silver Lake says:

    Highest wind gust we had today was 31 mph. It was slowing down but in the last 20 minutes or so has really started ramping up again. The lights started flickering about 10 minutes ago. My weather station is telling me to “go fly a kite”. Gotta love that thing, it cracks me up.

  12. Ken(S. Salem 500ft) says:

    South wind really kicking here now. 25-30mph. temps jumped into the mid 70’s real fast.

  13. PaulB/Eugene says:

    The Oct 4-6 period is one to watch….next round of storms from Pacific will happen during that period…the 12Z ECMWF has a rather Columbussy looking trough off the coast then…don’t see any 953mb lows on the models….yet.

  14. Unless it’s below 55 for a high the rest of the month, September will have a high average high than July. You don’t see that too often.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      And its also notable how the term “June Gloom” transformed into “June/July Gloom”

      Most years we don’t necessarily see that kind of situation.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      But heck, I’ve been sunny all summer so I got nothing to complain about!!!

    • Punxsutawney (aka HIOPHIL) at work by Sunset High elev ~280' says:

      KHIO’s average temp this September is currently 2.4 degrees above the average temp for last July and I don’t see it changing much.

      Unreal…

    • Punxsutawney (aka HIOPHIL) at work by Sunset High elev ~280' says:

      And it may turn out to be the warmest September in Hillsboro on record. Not verified yet and the mohnt still has 4 days left. Props to Karl B for mentioning this posibility a week or two ago.

  15. johnathan9847 says:

    hey is october going to be colder than average

  16. Kyle says:

    Any 950mb lows lurking about in this unsettled pattern?

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Nothing approaching our coast lines any time soon but I do see a few 970mb lows spinning around the ocean the next week or so. Latest few WRF-GFS runs have been taking away all the fun. Maybe perhaps into late October/early November we might see something.

  17. bgb41 says:

    9/25/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:89 at Ontario Municipa(2188 ft)
    Low: 64 at LAKE OWHEE AND O(2400 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:40 at Timberline Lodge(7001 ft)
    Low: 32 at KLAMATH NWR (4531 ft ) & Mazama (4590 ft ) & TIMOTHY (6099 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 38 degrees
    DW6879 Union (87/49 ) (2792 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.05″ at RED MOUND(1753ft)

  18. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Had a coooool/breeeezy high of 63F but only for a brief period of time. By 3 pm it went back down to a cooooool/breeeeezy 57F. Nice day for those who love Fall, but not otherwise…..

  19. Anthony Bertolo - Hillsboro says:

    Fall is coming hard once October starts./////////

  20. W7ENK says:

    Taken by a friend of mine a little after 4pm today…

    Do you see what I see?

    Her quote: “Um… I’ve been stuck behind the Burnside bridge a lot…
    But not when it looks like war of the worlds is about to happen!”

    😆

  21. pdxgeologist says:

    Check out the temp and wind speed at the top of Cascade Express (highest lift at Meadows).

    http://www.skihood.com/The-Mountain/Conditions

  22. pappoose in scappoose says:

    As you’ve already remarked W7, the NWS has issued another SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. Allow me to display my favorite passage:

    Statement as of 5:22 PM PDT on September 25, 2011

    The rain will likely put a significant damper on wildfires in most
    of southwest Washington and northwest Oregon. The change in the
    weather will also impact people outdoors… including making
    conditions very dangerous for climbing any of the area mountain
    peaks.

    Hahaah! I’m certainly glad this vital information was brought to my attention!

  23. Austin (Cornelius) says:

    noticed this morning the rain/mist came in sheets and waves in the wind when i woke up this morning in scappoose. thought that was cool, hope soon to see sideways rain and heavier winds. soon as in a couple of weeks.

  24. High of 65.9 today…at 12:41 this morning 🙂

    Peak wind of 25 mph at 11:13 AM.

  25. pappoose in scappoose says:

    The mountain has chilled out:

    http://www.nwac.us/weatherdata/timberlineupper/now/

  26. jonathan says:

    we are starting to get some cold nights here in midtown anchorage

  27. Kyle says:

    Sounds nice at the New Hampshire Speedway! Great racing weather! Vroooooooooooooom!

    What are the training requirements to do stock car racing? Can you rent the track to invite just your family and friends *if any*?

    • Kyle, with the old radar it would show rain everywhere except a black V over Vernonia because the radar was blocked by the West Hills etc. It was hard for the radar to show what was really happening. With the new radar it should be much easier. I hope I explained that okay.

  28. No more blank “V” over V-town. Do not know the cause….but seems the power was out for 3 hrs early this morning.

  29. PaulB/Eugene says:

    Somebody from KPTV weather blog must have hacked the westernusawx forum

  30. Peak wind so far of 24 mph at 3:33 this morning.

    Cloudy and breezy now. Nice to hear the wind through the Aspen leaves.

    • I only managed peak gust 20.5mph. Usually I seem to be a tad windier than most, but not this AM. It was nice to have a decent cold front push through with modest PDX/OLM-EUG gradients too.

    • Modest, meaning light, an increasing upward trend in them, not implying they were moderate or strong.

    • bgmike says:

      Just now got a peak wind gust of 23.5 mph, the strongest gust I got during the front was 16 mph.
      It sure is nice to see the wind blowing and gust reports coming in again.

    • Garron says:

      At the school just 1/4 of a mile away, obs said we had a peak gust from the SE of 21 mph. Hi was 65 so far, back down to 58 at the moment, light shower occurring. This front has brought a whopping 0.04″ of rain to my local so far.

      Rob, is your wind instrument properly calibrated? It seems to be reading a bit low…(Sorry I couldn’t resist. 😉 ) Just a bit of sarcasm to start our fall weather off… Still left my windows opened today, the fresh air feels great!

    • Garron says:

      Should have added…That hi of 65 occurred at 1 AM.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Hasn’t anyone told you Garron, Robs wind instrument isn’t properly calibrated. It reads HIGH, not low. Hahaah!

  31. Now 57.4, breezy and very moist…. Welcome to Fall? …..

  32. I WAS down to 61.3, but now with S-SW winds increasing I’m back up to 64.

    Oh and for those who use Western Weather Forum, it has been hacked apparently. I just visited and yep, its a goner.

  33. So BACK to weather if its okay?

    A mild 62.6 currently. Radar shows some light rain beginning to spread onshore with the frontal boundary.

  34. bgb41 says:

    9/24/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:101 at DW1597 Troy(1612 ft)
    Low: 68 at MORGAN MOUNTAIN(4200 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:61 at MEARES Cape Mear(1421 ft)
    Low: 28 at Mazama (4590 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 57 degrees
    MINAM LODGE-PORT (93/36 ) (3575 ft )

  35. Karl Bonner says:

    Take a look at THIS:

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=mso&sid=PLFI1&num=168&raw=0&dbn=m

    Pittsburg Landing at the bottom of Hells Canyon, near the north end. Yup, the highs the past three days were 100-103-106. Absolute insanity for the last 10 days of September, with the midday sun less than 45 degrees above the horizon.

    In fact, I’m now actually a bit skeptical about this station. Given how the station has developed a hot reputation over the course of this summer, I would find mid to upper 90s at this time of year to be easily believable. But 106? I’m sorry but it just sounds impossible this late in the season and this far north.

    If they really can get that hot in late September, I wonder what they could do in mid-October under a “hot” ridge (i.e. 75-80 in the Willamette Valley and maybe 2 or 3 degrees warmer in the East Gorge)? And if Pittsburg Landing is prone to such hot temps in the fall, where does the intense heat come from? I can understand the canyon walls accumulating heat on a hot summer day, but my instincts tell me that if anything, the shorter fall days and longer shadows ought to inhibit heating.

  36. robwaltemate says:

    Small gust of wind then rain hitting the bedroom window. I think fall just hit me here NNE of Long Beach WA

  37. Steven From South Salem says:

    Whens the first band of rain suppose to roll into the valley?

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