Nice Light Show and Sprinkles This A.M.

Quite a light show to wake up to this morning 3:00-5:00am.  I was awakened by big splats of rain about 4:15am and saw almost continous lightning at times to the south and east.  Only a few rumbles here on the far eastside though.  We ALMOST were camping at Timothy Lake last night, which must have been quite a loud place early this morning…check out the almost solid yellow strikes around and just south of Mt. Hood!  Each of those “+” marks is a cloud to ground strike (or ground to cloud of course).  Here’s a much larger and close in lightning strike map for the Portland Metro Area:  Click on the map…it’s REALLY big!  But notice there was one spot in the metro area that had quite a bit of action: between Newberg and Wilsonville within a few miles of the Willamette River.

It’s interesting that the UW-WRF model showed the convection in the right place and the right time.  Here’s the 5am forecast precipitation from the 00z run last night.  It shows accumulating precipitation from 2-5am in about the right spot doesn’t it?  Our RPM model did not show any convection.

Well, it was fun while it lasted, but now that has moved on and we have another warm and sunny day on tap.  That is one benefit of the very warm and humid weather; much better chance for thunderstorm activitiy.  The cooler weather returns just in time for school to start (for my kids at least) and September next week.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

244 Responses to Nice Light Show and Sprinkles This A.M.

  1. bgb41 says:

    00Z GFS — Possible nearly historic heatwave coming next week. I am so happy I am nearly speechless.

    7-days in a row in the 90s

    • I have to say the probability is growing for this to occur.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Yeah its not like we have a zero percent chance with this one….. We are only talking about early September here. Look at October of 2009, for the first week or so we were close to touching the 70F degree mark. If we can do that in October then this is totally not impossible.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Actually some years we hit 80F in October but thats kinda rare.

  2. 00z GFS shows 90 degree temps begin this weekend and keep going through next week… Could reasonably be 90+ for 8-9 days in a row… We’ll see….

  3. Tyler in Battle Ground says:

    Let’s not look at September 5th and beyond…it’s so far out for the models, though they seem to be coming together for some heat and east wind. That means some dry air and some large diurnal ranges in temp.

  4. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    I wouldn’t mind a little spark of summer weather in September….. and im sure it wont last that long at all, so id say bring it on!

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Chances are it could also bring more convection so this could really be to our liking.

  5. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Tropical update. Coming soon, 29 storms:

    • Boydo3 N. Albany 500' says:

      And the ride begins. I just wish those knucklehead TV (on the scene) weather reporters would just park themselves on a bar stool and do some serious reporting like “this place is really hopping tonite as patrons try to get in one last drink before the transit system shuts down and they won’t be able to get home”…..rather than standing in the windiest part of town, clinging to some rocking stop sign, acting as if they are risking their lives bringing the chaos to us….. AND there is no end in sight!

    • Kyle From Silverton says:

      That’s modern news reporting for you! 😦 Forget the facts as long as it sells.

    • Runrain says:

      You got that right, Kyle!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Right Boydo3. My favorite is the reporter on the beach who isn’t really in a strong wind, and staggers around as though he’s about to turn into a PROJECTILE. Hahaah!

  6. Cgavic says:

    Morning clouds? At 4 pm

  7. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Those Donkeys started some fires.

    http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=USA1

  8. bgb41 says:

    ***SUMMER IS NOT OVER****

    ‎12Z GFS – Absolute dream death ridge set up for next week now. 850mb temps reach +26C in offshore flow on Sept 8th. Possibly 5+ days of east winds during that period. Guidance calling for 99 degrees on Sept 8th which would be the hottest ever for so late in the summer season. Here is the output……

    • Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

      Oh crap

    • Punxsutawney (aka HIOPHIL) at work by Sunset High elev ~280' says:

      Hmmm…similar to 1981…will have to wait and see how Septebmer turns out.

    • Garron says:

      Lookin fantastic!!! This summer, a lil lopsided, but we’ll take it. Planning a camping trip for the week after next when the kids are back to school, so hoping this will last a while…

    • Muxpux says:

      The weekend of the 11th is rod runs down in long beach, will it be a sunny weekend down there? Or the usual hot valley, cold coast set up?

    • Runrain says:

      Yea! Ripening tomatoes, convection possibilities, and some unhappy people.

    • Runrain says:

      I remember a 99 on Labor Day a few years ago. Doing a half marathon Sunday so hoping the real heat doesn’t set in until Monday.

    • AdamInAumsville says:

      12Z Euro not quite as strong with the ridge, but still pretty warm.

    • Pete says:

      Wine Country Half, runrain? Race is at 7 a.m., so you’ll be done by, what, 8:25 a.m.? You’ll be fine no matter how hot it gets that day!

    • Runrain says:

      Yeah but, er, not quite! As long as I can finish ahead of a few other 56 yr olds.

    • Pete says:

      I’m sure you will — more than a few. I’m eight younger than you and hope to be still going at 56 and beyond, God willing.

      Looks like a fun race. Good luck!

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      That would be freaking horrible… I’m fine with the 80’s but multiple days of 90+ and even creeping near 100?!

      I just hope that doesn’t verify. If it does I’m hoping for a quick drop into fall weather for the balance of the season.

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      And one thing is for sure… It seems our seasons have shifted back about 1 month. The heat is starting later in the year and the cold is arrive later in the year.

  9. Had one heck of a “light show” and T-storm here last night. . . started at 7:45 pm and went right on through ’til 11:30, then another few rumbles this morning about 3:30 am. . .

    Temp is 65.5 °F and fairly humid for this area (60%). . . Supposedly, more of the same today (but w/ temps in the high 80s (yuk)). Can’t wait to see what winter brings up here. . ..

  10. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Drizzle at this place presently.

  11. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Was breezy to windy today in some neighborhoods not that far away.

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
    657 PM PDT SUN AUG 28 2011

    ..TIME… …EVENT… …CITY LOCATION… …LAT.LON…
    ..DATE… ….MAG…. ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. …SOURCE….

    0400 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSW WARM SPRINGS
    08/28/2011 M1.00 INCH JEFFERSON OR TRAINED SPOTTER
    MEASURED AN INCH OF RAIN IN ABOUT 15 MINUTES.

    0555 PM TSTM WND GST WAITSBURG
    08/28/2011 E50.00 MPH WALLA WALLA WA
    40 TO 50 MPH ESTIMATED THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST. VISIBILITY
    WAS BRIEFLY LIMITED DUE TO SMOKE AND BLOWING DUST.

    0635 PM TSTM WND GST 5 SSE MIKKALO
    08/28/2011 M63.00 MPH GILLIAM OR TRAINED SPOTTER
    BLOWING DUST VISIBILITY DOWN TO 200FT BRIEFLY. WIND GUST
    63 MPH. AROUND 635 PM.

  12. Wow….. 00z EURO
    http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html
    Next weekend begins much warmer to HOT weather, then an impressive heat arrives for the entire following week. Upper 90s?

  13. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Tropical update from 28 storms. Coming soon…29 storms.

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