I got this from Cliff Mass’s blog this morning (via Pappoose in Scappoose in the comments on the previous post). Check out the difference the new radar (not operational yet) makes up on the Washingotn Coast. There is a very juicy front offshore. Here’s Portland’s radar view, partially blocked as always by the Coast Range: 
Notice the line of rain way out there appears quite weak. Then check out the view from the new radar about two hours ago! 
Wow…looks much more impressive doesn’t it? Can’t wait for it to be operational during the upcoming winter.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen
23z Mesoanalysis
Upper Air Analysis
925Mb: +23c
850Mb: +18c
700Mb: +8 to +9c
500Mb: -11.5c
Thermodynamics:
SBCAPE: 1000-1500J/kg PDX/VUO metro/Willamette Valley, 2000-2500J/kg Cascades
SBCAP: 100-150J/kg CIN PDX/VUO metro/Willamette Valley, 0-50J/kg CIN Casades(CAP eroding over Cascades, holding firm westward no surprise. Surface based convection west of Cascades looks unlikely unless the ULL can lift the CAP which is not entirely impossible, and looking south there are indications the CAP is eroding due to large scale ascent increasing.)
MLCAPE: 1000J/kg PDX/VUO metro/Willamette Valley, 1500-2000J/kg Cascades
EML: 50-100J/kg PDX/VUO metro/Willamette Valley, 0-25J/kg CIN Cascades.
MUCAPE: 1500-1800J/kg PDX/VUO metro/Willamette Valley, 2000-3000J/kg Cascades
LIFTED INDEX: -5 PDX/VUO metro/Willamette Valley, -7 to -8 Cascades
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES: 7.3C/km
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES: 7.3C/km
0-6KM SHEAR: 35-40KTS PDX/VUO metro/Willamette Valley, 40-50KTS Cascades
0-8KM SHEAR: 40-50KTS PDX/VUO metro/Willamette Valley, 50KTS Cascades
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR: 25-40KTS PDX/VUO metro/Willamette Valley(Increases noticeably as you head south of Salem), 35-45KTS Cascades
PWAT VALUES: 1.28″
SUPERCELL COMPOSITE: 2 to 4 Eugene to central-southern Oregon Coast and offshore(RARE to see this.)
SEVERE HAIL: 1 to 1.5″ Eugene to Roseburg, along central-southern Oregon Coast and offshore(VERY rare) 1.5 to 2″ central-southern Cascades
Things are going according to plan based upon last night’s analysis.
new post 🙂
Bend is about to get rocked. 1.48″ hail marker, 100% severe hail.. Severe warning may be needed soon.
2.02″ hail core marker, 100% severe hail. Severe Thunderstorm Warning needed now.
Big storm west-southwest of La Pine is close to severe….
New cells firing south of Eugene….
Trying to fire*
Hey Rob do you think these cells trying to fire up near Eugene, and the lightning offshore means we may actually be able to pull of some lighnting here?
The thunderstorm ended near Terrebonne in central Oregon sprinkling enough drain to wet the deck. Lightning now occuring near the north Sisters mountain.
Mr DELXV, you must have used a new IP or Email address…that’s why your comment was held up. Should be good to go now.
Overnight storms still look very possible. I see no reason to chance any previous thinking and the NWS agrees with this.
Very encouraging to see all the lightning offshore and also south of Roseburg…
and you can definitely see the direction it is headed 😦
can someone send link to Marks lightning page please 🙂 thanks!
Here you go:
thanks! to a neighbor not too far down the road LOL
Thunder and lightning Just NE of The Three Sisters Mtns in central Oregon
Frequent thunder and lightning and a few rain drops near Terrabonne in central Oregon
I am seeing one thing unfortunately though that well, doesn’t bode extremely well for storms, especially anything severe drifting off the Cascades. WV Loop shows that the flow is having a difficult time backing to the SSE with mainly a southerly flow. Radar trends confirm this with storms moving N-NNE along the Cascades. As the ULL nears the flow should back to at least southerly due to the circulation around it, and there’s a chance even southeasterly, but yeah until it does so its hard to be overly confident. However as the ULL and increasing lift approaches we could see storms fire virtually anywhere thanks to the strong shear and elevated instability in place.