First 90 Degree High?

I decided to change the 88 degree high on Saturday to 90 this evening based on two things:

1.  There appears to be a weak thermal trough west of the Cascades on Saturday now, pulling a light easterly flow over the Cascades and through the Gorge.  The UW’s WRF-GFS surface pressure map for 5pm Saturday is the image above…you can see what I’m referring to.

2. Models have warmed 850mb temps a bit…both the NAM, GFS, and WRF-GFS show temps between 18-20 degrees C. over Portland Saturday afternoon.

Those two factors may be enough to push us to 90 degrees.  The surface flow goes flat on Sunday, which might drop us back a few degrees.  It’s not tough for that to happen in late August.  With the rapidly decreasing daylight and long nights you need some offshore flow to get it up to or above 90 degrees (generally) in the afternoon.

So isn’t that exciting, supposedly it’s a big deal, even though in a normal year we’d be excited about the first 90 in May!

As I mentioned in last night’s post, it sure looks like we are breaking out of the big cool West Coast trough for the first time in 6 months!   Look for a continuation of warmer than average weather next week.  Even the ECMWF is a bit warmer than 24 hours ago.  The GEM and GFS are very warm (quite hot in the Canadian’s case) through all of next week.  The long-delayed Pacific Northwest Summer of 2011 is here.

Here’s a graphic showing total area burned in the State of Oregon the past 8 summers.  You can see the effect of this cool summer (so far of course):

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

122 Responses to First 90 Degree High?

  1. bgb41 says:

    8/19/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:96 at NORTH FORK MALHE(3270 ft)
    Low: 64 at John Day River B(305 ft) & Rufus(185 ft)

    High:54 at YACHTS Yachats(74 ft)
    Low: 27 at DESCHUTES PORTAB (5100 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 57 degrees
    DESCHUTES PORTAB (84/27 ) (5100 ft )

  2. Derek Hodges says:

    Well its going to be an interesting day tomorrow to see what turns up. Actual atmospheric conditions don’t look all that impressive from a 500mb standpoint but 20c at 850mb isn’t that bad. At the surface winds should be light northerly most of the day but I notice on the MM5 GFS it shows a weak thermal trough over the coast range tomorrow AM which may allow for some brief easterlies and a jump in temperatures. Obviously with weakening onshore flow at this time we will start clear as well. I am going to say we do hit 90-92 tomorrow, lets say 91. Even if we don’t go without a 90 maybe 2nd latest 90 isn’t that bad or whatever it is.

    • Boydo3 N. Albany 500' says:

      ah well, it’s just summertime. Upper eighties to ninety or so, who cares? Just make sure the fridge is well stocked. Maybe seek out a swimming hole. Or get up in the cool green woods.

  3. Has anyone checked out Water Vapor Loop recently? Usually this time of year it’s to track a shortwave, convection developing, monsoonal moisture surges, but this is a rare, strong low pressure system near 980Mb in the Gulf of Alaska.
    Awfully potent looking for mid-August. Pumping up a nice ridge ahead of it.

    Here is a wider 8KM view.
    This shows everything nicely. You can also see the dominant southern plains ridge has shifts a tad westward centered just west of Midland, TX near the TX/NM border.

  4. man, i got some friends getting married tomorrow, and a bbq to hit later. of all the weekends, lol.

    sunday should be a good chill, cold drink day. tomorrows gonna be “brutal” haha.

  5. bgb41 says:

    00Z NAM now producing 94 degrees at PDX tomorrow.

    For those of you wishing for a 1954 repeat… It ain’t happening this year.


    • 94 94… 94 94… do I hear 95… 95 anyone…? 95
      95.. 95? 95?…. 94 going once….. 94 going twice…
      Yeppp 95…. 95… do we have 96? 96? 96? …. anyone ?
      95 going once…. 95 going twice…. 95 IT IS with compressional heating doing the trick!

      Yes, I do realize that was a majorly geeky rip-off of Storage Wars.

  6. 18z suggests we hit 93 tomorrow. We’ll see….

  7. Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

    Real summer has definitely arrived 🙂 …Lots of people are hitting the neighborhood swimming pools lately.

    • Kyle From Silverton says:

      The only thing missing is the occasional whiff of the pulp mill and mushroom factory.

  8. Kyle From Silverton says:

    Karl Bonner says:
    August 18, 2011 at 5:43 pm

    Now that the phrase “fog inversion” has been uttered, I would like to promote the use of my portmanteau “fogversion.”

    Other than that, PDX snowstorms can come either from arctic air with a storm that overrides from the south/southwest, or it can happen if there’s a very chilly trough in the Gulf of Alaska that aims directly at the Pacific Northwest. If the arctic air passing over the water doesn’t swing too far out over the ocean, it can sometimes still be cold enough upon arrival for zero snow levels in NW Oregon and SW Washington.

    What is it the temps like behind the chilly trough when it’s a result of a chilly trough that tends to be more inland?

    Does the skies usually clear out and we have anight down the teens?

    Is there usually enough snow to close schools from this kind of a system?

    • Karl Bonner says:

      An inch or two of snow on the ground early in the morning is plenty to cancel or at least delay schools in the Portland metro.

      During Arctic blasts temperatures usually dip into the teens in Portland, except near Troutdale where the strong east wind might keep things in the 20s all night long. If the arctic air overrides and covers the entire Willamette Valley, places further south between Salem and Eugene often end up getting a few degrees colder than Portland at night; in December 2009 temps dropped to 7F at the Eugene airport WITHOUT any snow cover to help make things colder.

  9. Apparently according to the NWS we are in some new unknown time continuum traveling through some distant worm-hole.

    2051 PM PDT FRI AUG 19 2011

    2051 PM? I am not ready for this. It’s going to be really hard to keep track of events, schedules, etc.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Hahaah! Right Rob, those worm-holes are as hard to keep track of as Stray Albino Donkeys wandering about!

  10. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    KGW and KATU certainly are going all in on the heat forecast aren’t that? 89/90 on Saturday & Thursday. Both keeping temps around 85 on the low side… Me think’s Mark & KOIN are a little more realistic.

    Two runs with cooler and wetter starts to September on the GFS. 😉

  11. Anyone see the new NCEP outlooks? Kind of looks like the ridge is centered a bit further southeast to me.

    6-10 Day —>
    8-14 Day —>

  12. WEATHERDAN says:

    At 11:00 AM Salem is already 68 degrees, on the way to 85 degrees. The next 7 days look to be very warm down here. 85-95 degrees. So far we have hit 90 twice and 80 or more 31 times. By the end of August it might be 90+ 6 times, and 80+ 44 times. Just because the low clouds in the Portland area seldom get this far South, last summer and this summer we have usually run 2-4 degrees warmer than Portland. NOAA is now apparently predicting the rebound of La Nina for us this winter. So we probably will have another crummy winter followed by another crummy summer in 2012. At least we have finally gotten a long stretch of summer weather.

    • Garron says:

      When I was a kid, I was a lil jealous of my cousins living in Albany, they always seemed to get more sunny days from start to finish than we did up here. Of course, living with that smell of the mill near Albany would make the sunnier days a lil less enjoyable IMO.

      Thanks to people like you, Mark, Brian, Rob, Tyler, Karl, Pappoose, and the many others on here, I get a much broader spectrum of our local weather anomalies, even on days like these. Thanks again, much appreciated.

      Just got back from Vegas today, took lots of pics at the Grand Canyon, will upload to face book soon. There was even a good sized wild fire near the rim on the SE side, hopefully the pics came our ok, hard to see that camera screen in extreme sun light, just point and pray! It was 105 or better every day, except yesterday I think it hit 110, with the extreme sunburn I got, it felt a LOT HOTTER!!!!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      That’s the best way to experience temps over 100 Garron, go somewhere else and leave it there when you come back.

    • Much appreciates, Garron, thanks! I would like to get down to the Grand Canyon one day. Vegas? not so much probably not my scene.

    • Kyle From Silverton says:

      *Stinky Albany* is/was our nickname due to the pulp mill they used to have that stunk like a skunk every time we drove by.

      When we first moved here if the wind was just right you’d get a whiff of it here in Silverton. I am not sure if Portland was close enough to get the *Albany smell*

  13. bgb41 says:

    low clouds have backfilled off the cascades last 2 hours here at BG Lake. Apparent NNW upslope flow along the mounains right now.
    Currently 90% humidity and Mostly Cloudy.

  14. pappoose in scappoose says:

    We’ll have to be relentlessly on watch for any Stray Albino Donkeys wandering our way.

    National Weather Service Portland or
    902 am PDT Friday Aug 19 2011

    Have kept instability over the weekend just to our south. The
    position of the low to our south is a bit farther south than it had
    been…and believe thunderstorms will stay just south and east of
    our area at this point. Tolleson

  15. 48.5 this morning with just a few clouds off to the NE at this point.

  16. 6z GFS just a TAD bit hotter…. 12z should be a real eye-opener, meaning who knows what it’ll show….

  17. Oooo. Oooooooo. OOOOOOOOOOO

    EURO is trending hotterrrrrrr

  18. bgb41 says:

    8/18/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:94 at ALKALI FLAT(2495 ft) & NORTH FORK MALHE(3270 ft)
    Low: 69 at DW6470 Ontario(2150 ft)

    High:58 at NERRS MET SITE A(10 ft) & YACHTS Yachats(74 ft)
    Low: 27 at DESCHUTES PORTAB (5100 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 54 degrees
    CABIN LAKE (86/32 ) (4560 ft )

  19. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Mag 6.5 quake at 10.36. Break out the life jackets in Japan.

  20. Hmmm….. I present to you tonight’s 00z GFS model run. Here we are looking at the forecast for August 30th.

    Yes, that is a Hurricane hammering the Mississippi Coast. Something to keep an eye on.

  21. Tyler in Battle Ground says:

    Just watched the ISS fly over followed by an iridium flare a couple minutes later, pretty cool!

  22. bgb41 says:

    18Z GFS @ KTTD… 15 days in a row above 80

    • Boydo3 N. Albany 500' says:

      Just picked our first pail of tomatoes yesterday. Valley temps have been right on average. Would like a bit more heat but hey……!
      Feels like summer! 🙂

  23. 74.5 for the high here after a low of 47. That’s 8 of 18 lows below 50 so far this month.

  24. Yevpolo1990 says:

    Hey how is is everybody enjoying the cool summer in Pdx? Still baking here in Lawton!

  25. I really hope tonight’s 00z GFS/EURO turn hotter, show a more persistent ridge, and better retrogression of the entire 500Mb pattern. I know the NCEP 6-10/8-14 day outlooks are steadfast with a dominant Great Basin ridge and above normal temps for the PNW. Who’s to say once the ridge builds in from the Great Basin that we don’t get into a hotter more prolonged pattern? Oh and with that comes increasing convective possibilities.

    • Runrain says:

      Gimme the death ridge for the increased convective possibilities it creates!

    • For 3 days the NCEP outlook has looked mighty warm to hot for the PNW. I was thinking IF that is so then the GFS/EURO operational will obviously have to play catch up to that and will trend in that direction, IF we indeed see a persistent ridge as the NCEP indicates then maybe tonight that trend begins, but given how this Summer has played out I just wouldn’t hold my breath.

    • Yevpolo1990 says:

      I am going with 91 on sunday for you guys and 89 on saturday, it will be a close one on saturday, but I think sunday is the day we get our first 90!

    • Tyler in Battle Ground says:

      Looks like Sunday will be the cooler of the two weekend days with increasing high clouds…

  26. I know it isn’t our region, but….

    Omaha, NE is about to get pounded AGAIN
    Live streaming cam —>
    NASTY shelf cloud approaching fast!
    Earlier Omaha metro saw Baseball to Softball sized hail.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Hahaah! just saw your post and the cam looks like it’s UNDER WATER! Hail bouncing around!

  27. Paul D says:

    No 90, no 90, no 90, PUHLEEZ!! NO 90!!

  28. checking the weather just got a LOT easier!!

    and you can turn on a webcam layer to look at webcams all over the world as well!!

  29. Kyle From Silverton says:

    This is for jesse: We can even have a two week heatwave with 100+ temps without sacrificing a cooler then normal summer since we have been cool for so dang long.

    Then it will be just in time for a cold winter with lots of fog inversion in late December/mid January. 🙂

    • Kyle From Silverton says:

      But there will be a strong Alberta Clipper that will hit Jesses house only while the rest of us are upset at the dry grass and going to work/school.

      Actually what are the names for snow systems here?

    • Karl Bonner says:

      Now that the phrase “fog inversion” has been uttered, I would like to promote the use of my portmanteau “fogversion.”

      Other than that, PDX snowstorms can come either from arctic air with a storm that overrides from the south/southwest, or it can happen if there’s a very chilly trough in the Gulf of Alaska that aims directly at the Pacific Northwest. If the arctic air passing over the water doesn’t swing too far out over the ocean, it can sometimes still be cold enough upon arrival for zero snow levels in NW Oregon and SW Washington.

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      Weather service must be rolling with the weak La Nina to Neutral conditions forecasted for this winter. With a -PDO and a potential near neutral ENSO I’m digging our snow chances for the upcoming winter.

    • Kyle From Silverton says:

      I predict many small snow events with lots of ice leaving 2 hour delays and a big windstorm. I feel in my vibes Feb is going to be our exciting month.

  30. C’mon 00z EURO. Strong ridge! Better retrogression! Persistent pattern with 90-95 degrees for a week!

  31. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Mark commented on this tropical wave yesterday.

    Southern U.S., Keep an Eye on the Tropical Atlantic

    Aug 18, 2011; 11:24 AM ET

    “Even residents across the Northeast should monitor the wave…”

    If a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic overcomes the obstacles in its path, it has the potential to strengthen into a hurricane and target the southern United States. The tropical wave in question is located roughly halfway between western Africa and the Lesser Antilles, separated from the U.S. by a week’s time.
    The wave is currently a weak tropical system, void of substantial thunderstorms wrapping around its center.
    However, the Hurricane Center cannot just dismiss this wave as several computer models show it strengthening into a hurricane and bearing down on the Southeast later next week.

  32. Jbpdx says:

    Considering changing my blog name/ID to “ihateclouds”…

  33. I don’t mind a spell of warmer temps (though I thrive in the 75 to 80 range myself), but I would have to pick a nit with the statement that “The long-delayed Pacific Northwest Summer of 2011 is here”. I don’t know if people have noticed, but the last month has been almost entirely dry, with average temps in the upper 70s. Is it a couple degrees cooler than average? Sure. Did summer get a very slow, slumbering start this year? Definitely. But it’s been here, folks, and I’ve been loving it! Now let’s get toasty so we can appreciate a brisk autumn (and hopefully cold winter) all the more. 😉

    • LongtimeLurker says:

      Well said!

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      I agree, well said.

      This is such a healthier view on our cliimate than those held by nutcases like Karl, who literally want this to be a different climate.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      All you demonstrate with that comment, Jesse, is the mental disability you enjoy. I find Karl’s comments quite entertaining.

    • I think calling someone a nut case(Just because they want or appreciate weather or a climate that differs from your own) is really crossing the line.

    • Runrain says:

      Hey! I’m the only nutcase on here!

    • Boydo3 N. Albany 500' says:

      Hey! I resemble that remark!

    • Karl Bonner says:

      Jesse I never said I wanted this to be a different climate. If it were a different climate then big heat events in late fall or early spring would be boring because they would be quite normal. It’s the abnormal nature of them that makes them so much fun.

      I enjoy unseasonable cold almost as much as unseasonable warmth, as well as unseasonably wet or dry, because all of them give you license to PRETEND that you live in a different climate than you actually do, whether it be a rainforest, a desert, the Frost Belt or the Sun Belt. The super-wet spring in The Dalles was fun because it kept everything unseasonably green into May and June. The coldness also caused a tremendous delay in spring phenology, just as the balmy January/February last year caused everything in Portland and Eugene to get started really really early.

  34. Let’s all start chanting “DEATH RIDGE!, DEATH RIDGE!,…”

  35. Austin (Cornelius) says:

    hopefully we get a dry train today or tomorrow, right pappoose?
    i don’t need to be soaked camping once again.
    two years back around mid July, i was camping. on a Sunday morning i wake up to thunder booming and lightning flashing in the sky in Barview. do I need to say more?

  36. runrain says:

    KPTV Presents: The Wizard of Fox: I’m Melting!

    Starring: Jesse as The Wicked Witch
    Mark Nelsen as Dorothy
    The 7-Day Forecast as The Bucket of Water

    CoStarring: Rob as The Scarecrow
    Boydo as The Tin Man
    Karl Bonner as The Lion
    Stephanie Kralavich as Toto
    Bgb, MuxPux, Runrain, Timmy, HioPhil, JR, Tyler Mode, Boring Larry, as the Witches Soldiers

    Watch as Jesse, doused with 90 deg heat, slowly melts away, lamenting the horrible PNW weather, the weather bloggers who seemed so powerless, and of course, Dorothy for puttin’ that darn 90 up there on Saturday!

  37. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Oh yeah jeez where are my manners. Thanks for the update, Mark. Isn’t it nice to see FINALLY a pronounced change to the 500Mb pattern? If this all comes to fruition and that nagging trough holds off until later into September or October, then this may go down as the nicest Summer ever!(JUST my opinion folks)

  38. Karl Bonner says:

    So the upper-level ridge hath finally arrived. Well we still have about 8 or 9 weeks where we can squeeze some real heat out of it.

    I can’t wait until Halloween when Northwesterners are endlessly gloating about the best Indian Summer ever!!!

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      I like the way you think, Karl! Especially the last part.

    • Karl Bonner says:

      Thanks, I do my best.

      Keep in mind that the reason we’ve been so cool, and the east so hot, over the past few months is that the upper-level pattern has been very amplified and stubbornly stationary. If – and it’s a big if – the amplitude and stubbornness re-establish themselves after this positional shift, it will get the West locked into a very warm and dry paradigm while the eastern 2/3 of the country turns chilly.

      Of course there’s no guarantee that the amplitude and stubbornness will re-establish. And it theoretically could re-establish back in the same position it’s been in this spring and summer. But I have a gut feeling that the next two months will be warmer and drier than average along the West Coast…

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      I hate the way you think Karl!

    • Garron says:

      I am like the enthusiasm Karl!!! I was hoping for a summer now that I have completed most of the outdoor chores, reroofing job, painting houses, and heavy gardening behind me…let summer ring true!!! I’ll bring some tropical birds to the gorge to keep your palm trees company!!!

  39. Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

    Bring on the 90 degree temps 🙂

  40. […] Largest Diurnal Change: 50 degrees HEREFORD (89/39 ) (3599 ft ) CRANE PRAIRIE (82/32) (5500 ft) Reply […]

  41. Boydo3 N. Albany 500' says:

    Mark, you are about to invoke the wrath of Jesse. Are you ready for that? 😉

  42. bgb41 says:

    8/17/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:97 at ALKALI FLAT(2495 ft)
    Low: 64 at John Day River B(305 ft) & Rufus 2E(279 ft) & Celilo, East of(225 ft)

    High:56 at YACHTS Yachats(74 ft)
    Low: 32 at CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 50 degrees
    HEREFORD (89/39 ) (3599 ft )
    CRANE PRAIRIE (82/32) (5500 ft)

  43. bgb41 says:

    It’s about time. Hopefully that 91 on the 00Z NAM will materialize.

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