First 90 Degree High?

I decided to change the 88 degree high on Saturday to 90 this evening based on two things:

1.  There appears to be a weak thermal trough west of the Cascades on Saturday now, pulling a light easterly flow over the Cascades and through the Gorge.  The UW’s WRF-GFS surface pressure map for 5pm Saturday is the image above…you can see what I’m referring to.

2. Models have warmed 850mb temps a bit…both the NAM, GFS, and WRF-GFS show temps between 18-20 degrees C. over Portland Saturday afternoon.

Those two factors may be enough to push us to 90 degrees.  The surface flow goes flat on Sunday, which might drop us back a few degrees.  It’s not tough for that to happen in late August.  With the rapidly decreasing daylight and long nights you need some offshore flow to get it up to or above 90 degrees (generally) in the afternoon.

So isn’t that exciting, supposedly it’s a big deal, even though in a normal year we’d be excited about the first 90 in May!

As I mentioned in last night’s post, it sure looks like we are breaking out of the big cool West Coast trough for the first time in 6 months!   Look for a continuation of warmer than average weather next week.  Even the ECMWF is a bit warmer than 24 hours ago.  The GEM and GFS are very warm (quite hot in the Canadian’s case) through all of next week.  The long-delayed Pacific Northwest Summer of 2011 is here.

Here’s a graphic showing total area burned in the State of Oregon the past 8 summers.  You can see the effect of this cool summer (so far of course):

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

122 Responses to First 90 Degree High?

  1. longview at 66, thats +9 from 24 hours ago. hit 81 yesterday. at this pace well touch 90. time to stock up on some cold beers

  2. pappoose in scappoose says:

    OK my friends, looks like some heat coming our way, obtain the beverage of your choice, move yourself near/in some water if you wish, and don’t burn the top of your head (or any other body part). Hahaah!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=NOErZuzZpS8&vq=small

  3. PaulO says:

    Starting out 4 degrees warmer at PDX than yesterday plus clear and calm at 7am. I guess I will have to agree over 50-50 chance we hit 90.

  4. Gradient is now ever so slightly offshore.

    It’s pure fall up in Alaska. I was checking obs at Hyder in SE Alaska and it is raining with the wind gusting from the SE at 43 mph.

  5. Kyle From Silverton says:

    An inch or two of snow on the ground early in the morning is plenty to cancel or at least delay schools in the Portland metro.

    During Arctic blasts temperatures usually dip into the teens in Portland, except near Troutdale where the strong east wind might keep things in the 20s all night long. If the arctic air overrides and covers the entire Willamette Valley, places further south between Salem and Eugene often end up getting a few degrees colder than Portland at night; in December 2009 temps dropped to 7F at the Eugene airport WITHOUT any snow cover to help make things colder.

    I suppose living on the side of a hill is why I don’t experience the freezes when it’s a borderline event.

    In February I made it to 17F earlier in the year while many valley floor locations was down to like 12F I think and there are many dips on the valley where the sun don’t shine much.

  6. geo says:

    Hey Karl, how hot do you think it will be in redmond oregon that weekend?

  7. Karl Bonner says:

    Have any of you seen the most recent run of Mark’s EURO model?

    http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html#96

    On Saturday of next weekend, it is calling for 850mb heights of 32+ in most of eastern Oregon, and 24+ all the way out over the coast! Now THAT’S what I call a heat wave!

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