Saturday Morning Clouds

I hate forecasting the depth/extent of the marine layer.  A good example is the 10am visible satellite picture…need I say more this morning???

For the past 36 hours models had been backing off on the depth of the layer for this morning, so we had pulled the majority of morning clouds out of today’s forecast.  But NO, I wake up to drizzle and solid cloud cover, plus you can see the layer extends up past 3,000′!

Enjoy the slow clearing this afternoon…

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

69 Responses to Saturday Morning Clouds

  1. After looking at both 12z GFS/EURO and NCEP outlooks respectively I would say there is momentum building to shift the big hot ridge westward to the Great Basin area. The 500Mb pattern is looking more Summer-like for sure. Our 90 degree-less streak is in jeopardy and as we end August the Summer of 1954 may continue to be the only Summer without one. I can see us reaching 90 and maybe a heat wave with a trough that strong digging that sharply in the Gulf of Alaska its possible we see a sharply amplified ridge with offshore flow too. Maybe 3-5 days of 90+…. Going out on a limb, but it would not surprise me IF the upper air pattern develops as such. Now watch tonight’s 00z back off with strong WNW/NW flow aloft and onshore flow dominating lol.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      /wishcasting

    • Punxsutawney (aka HIOPHIL) at work by Sunset High elev ~280' says:

      From the NWS afternoon discussion:

      ANOTHER ITEM OF INTEREST IS WHETHER THERE MIGHT BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND. IF THE MODEL POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LOW IS CORRECT…SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FCST AREA. STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT WITH ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS THAT WE WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER. JFP

      No details yet, but I like the idea. My tomatoes will like the warm weather, and if we get some t-storm potential around the area…well that’s a bonus.

      These ULL’s are nortoriously hard to forecast of course.

    • Wishcasting? Definitely not. I am not confident yet on this solution rather optimistic. You don’t like the models showing this possible pattern change and so you throw out some kind of “sarcastic”? insult.

      Wishcasting would have looked something like this. “Definite heat wave arriving. Day 8 shows a potential vort max with a good chance of severe thunderstorms in PDX metro. Believe it or not but after day 10 a strong ridge moves south from Alberta into Montana giving way to a PDX-DLS of -9 to -11mb. for a rare late August downslope hot windstorm.” THAT is wishcasting 🙂

    • Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

      I love thunderstorms but I don’t want them messing with the air show this weekend. Too early to call anyway. Anyone else going to Hillsboro?

    • runrain says:

      And my wishcast would be:

      Temperatures the last week of August will range from 105-110, with lows in the lower 70’s. Severe nocturnal thunderstorms with frequent lightning and 1/2 inch hail will hit the PDX metro area several nights in a row, clearing by morning for the continued hot and sunny days. Timmy will be in heaven and decide not to move to Oklahoma, while Jesse will catch the last train for the coast 🙂

    • o.c.paul says:

      Rob

      I hope you are wrong. I work outside 5 days a week. Low to mid 80’s is perfect, thank you very much. I’d rather work outside in rain and cold (as I do Nov-April) than temps in the 90 + range.
      Anyway, das macht nicht (whatever) fall is just around the corner.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      The constant bickering about hot/warm/cool likes and dislikes this summer has been getting a bit old on this blog.

      I think very few people actually ENJOY sitting outside in 90 degree plus weather.
      It’s the love of extremes for us. Hoping for 75-80 degrees all summer in Portland is the same as hoping for 45-50 degree highs the entire winter…boring!
      Just as it’s fun to look for a big cold blast in the Winter (when it’s too cold to be comfortable outside), it’s fun to hope for a hot ridge, dry east wind, and extreme temps in Summer.

    • Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

      During the summer most of the exciting weather only comes when things heat up. That’s why some of us have been hoping for 90F+ temps all summer 🙂

  2. Sorry, but I have to say that I feel the forecast for today was blown.

  3. Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

    Both the GFS & Euro are in total agreement of near 90F temps within 6-7 days of now 🙂

    • Boydo3 N. Albany 500' says:

      This is good. Although the high 70s and low 80s feels good. We need an extended warm period. Like recharging the batteries on my headlamp before plunging down into the long, dark, dank cave.

  4. bgb41 says:

    06Z GFS giving us 12 days in a row above 80 starting tomorrow.

  5. PaulB/Eugene says:

    Looks like 88-92F in Willamette Valley early next week….weak chances for convection over Cascades/Central OR as well.

  6. Looks like the system blew through here without much fanfare. There are still some clouds offshore but doesn’t look like anything major.

    Completely dry here and 57 under partly cloudy skies.

  7. Boydo3 N. Albany 500' says:

    I’m liking this and so are my tomatoes. ’bout time, eh?

    • Keep in mind…this is only computer output…no humans see the data over the weekend to issue forecasts… 🙂

    • Boydo3 N. Albany 500' says:

      This is true! Here’s a view not smoothed by humans. Hike up Iron Mt near Tombstone pass.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Humans don’t issue forecasts anymore. Hahaah!

    • AdamInAumsville says:

      Lot of snow still on the west side of Jefferson for it being mid-August.

    • john2784 says:

      i wonder if the snow on the higher peaks like paradise mount rainier will stay there all year

    • eugene in vancouver says:

      I topped mine off today and picked off all the new blossoms hoping to get the many green ones I have to ripen. I Iost about 90% last year due to the weather and can’t stand to see them rot on the vine again. I hope it wasn’t a mistake to prune them this early but I’m really hankerin’ for a BLT or two sometime this year

  8. SilentReader says:

    np at all – I am sure you will have some fun stories to tell us in the coming months as you get much more interesting weather than us.

  9. joe3985 says:

    and around what time do temperatures in some of the lowlands start dipping into the upper 30s

    • My record lows (records since 1996) are in the upper 30s after the 22nd of September, so I can imagine outlying areas (Battle Ground, Hillsboro etc) start seeing lows in the upper 30s by early to mid September some years.

  10. joe3985 says:

    hey around what time in seattle and portland are the chances of 90 degrees most likely not going to happen until next summer

  11. PaulB/Eugene says:

    Tstorms in Cascades /central OR next wknd/next week possible

  12. bgmike says:

    Currently in Moses lake temp is at 84, yesterday stopped In Missoula were the temp was in the mid 90s. And on wednesday I saw a small nocturnal tstorm near Yellowstone, I’m coming back home tomorrow from my trip.

  13. Kyle From Silverton says:

    Looks like Salem and Silverton wins the partly cloudy contest while the rest of thenation is socked in solid.

  14. pappoose in scappoose says:

    The question now seems to be, will you even have measurable precip at your house?

    National Weather Service Portland or
    848 am PDT sun Aug 14 2011

    Short term…deep marine air mass in place over northwest Oregon and SW Washington this morning with visible satellite imagery showing a solid cloud deck over the entire forecast area. The upper trough axis is seen in water vapor imagery along 135w. As the trough moves east today through Monday…the precipitation is not expected to be very impressive and expect the light rain to be spotty…especially across the southern part of the forecast area. The main impact of this trough will be the extensive low level moisture keeping clouds over the area…which will in turn keep temperatures cool through Monday.

    http://rodhillforecast.com/weather/daily-planner-video.html

    • Chuck on MT Scott says:

      Well, I am down here in Manzanita today and it is very sunny and warm. I was expecting more clouds and maybe rain by tomorrow? At this rate, we will not get any rain, but we shall see. Maybe it will fall apart and not make it to land.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Hard to say Chuck. Looks like what energy there was is splitting apart. GOLU model time as usual. Love the sandwiches out of the store in Manzanita.

    • Kyle From Silverton says:

      That’s what always seems to be the case lately. Storms come and they split apart at the seams.

      Hope this isn’t a bad omen for winter in terms of drought.

  15. john3987 says:

    hey do you guys think we are going to have a cool fall an average fall or a warm fall

  16. El Donut says:

    I hate how the NWSFO will backpedal (read 2:03 PM discussion) instead of just admitting a blown forecast: “still expect to see sun breaks” – yeah, perhaps on Thursday.

    • bgb41 says:

      In defense of the NWS.. This type of pattern has proven very difficult to predict historically. It’s arguable that this is the toughest thing to predict even for experts in Western Oregon. (“Marine Layer depth and coverage”)

    • Kyle From Silverton says:

      Hope they fall on their bike and land on their butt. 🙂

  17. Garron says:

    A little disappointed that the “morning” clouds haven’t cleared up as this is the best time to see the meteor shower, instead we have rain showers…oh well, off to Vegas in the morning, maybe be able to see a few shooting stars from the Voo Doo lounge tomorrow night.

  18. Karl Bonner says:

    Despite all the cool overcast west of the mountains, it still snuck up to 82 this afternoon in The Dalles. It was windy, but not quite on par with early July because there are very few twigs or leaves or anything lying around tonight.

  19. Punxsutawney aka HIOPHIL says:

    Yeah Mark!

    I wasn’t too pleased that the canopy to the travel trailer was wet this morning as I was about to put it in storage. I wasn’t expecting that and was not too happy as I wanted it bone dry before putting it away.

    Also I can tell you that at 12:30 in the afternoon that the higher peaks of the Coast Range were shrouded in clouds and mist. I expected it to be cooler today but it was quite grey Hillsboro west today.

    On the plus side, harvesting blueberries without the sun beating down was nice.

  20. Only made it to 69 here today after a low of 55. So far today also ranks as the lowest diurnal range in temps this month.

  21. Cliff Gavic, 1,100 ft says:

    The (evening) sun is actually shining in sandy.

  22. joe3985 says:

    hey when do you think the longer nights will start catching up with the temperatures and is it the shorter days that make leaves change or colder weather or a combo

    • Karl Bonner says:

      Well the historical average temps start trending downward right about now (mid-August). In late August places east of the Cascades usually start to see noticeably cooler nights some of the time, and by early September even the hot days tend to be offset by cool late nights.

      But it’s not until late September that fall really sinks its teeth in. Even then it’s still possible to have some 80+ days. October is the month that our weather takes a complete 180-degree turn.

    • Punxsutawney aka HIOPHIL says:

      Right about now. Low temps will start falling (on average!) at this point. Hillsboro high temps start a slow decline but really don’t start falling until after the first week of September. It’s pretty much 80 for the average high until then.

      As to leaves changing. At low elevations, I’d say late September at the earliest and only for the first trees to change and that’s if we stay cooler than normal.

    • It’s usually a combo of cooler temps and less light. However, though most people don’t’ believe it, the lack of sun is the bigger factor. The trees/plants can’t produce chlorophyll quickly enough so the other pigments that underlay the green start to show up more and more.

      Bring a small deciduous tree inside and the lack of light theory will be proven 🙂

      Usually by mid to late September elevations 4-6000′ are in great colors and they progress down the mountains/hills until they peak here in mid-late October.

  23. Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

    What sucks even more is that there was blue sky early this morning up until about 7 AM then the low clouds took over 😦

  24. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Waiting…waiting…waiting…waiting…

    http://rodhillforecast.com/weather/daily-planner-video.html

  25. Cliff Gavic, 1,100 ft says:

    I forgot one thing…I would love to get paid for weather observing, but not being a weather forecaster

    Today’s picture is why. Weather in northwestern Oregon is very inconvenient.

  26. Cliff Gavic, 1,100 ft says:

    Follow up…by afternoon sun, did you mean Hawaii time zone by any chance?

    Lol

  27. Cliff Gavic, 1,100 ft says:

    Saturday…morning..,clouds…at …3 pm?

    Mark, at least you talk about cool weather.

    The weather channel, and kptv weather mobiles have (as of yesterday) nothing but clear blue skies. Except for next sat.

    We had a surprising rain overnight. (?)

  28. CorbettTez says:

    Seems like I saw on last weeks 7 day forecast that this weekend was supposed to be 80-85 today and tomorrow!! Then you wake up to this! Now it’s saying the same thing for next weekend!! Maybe I’ll pull my snow boots out of the closet just in case!

  29. Currently 67 here in Silverton.

  30. Matthew says:

    This has been a great summer for me at least!

  31. jonathan says:

    sorry if i make ppl mad when i post comments from here in anchorage. from now on i will only read post and not post myself to keep ppl from getting mad. again sorry.

    • MasterNate says:

      Just ignore those people. I dont mind posts from AK. I love hearing about Snow and bitter cold wind chills since we never get it here.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      I enjoy comments from Anchorage. Not unusual for our weather to come from your direction.

      Hard not to bother someone…regardless of what you post.

    • jonathan says:

      ok ty

    • SilentReader says:

      I am sorry you took my post that way. My point was you were asking people, not from your region, to tell you what your climate is like. i just felt that question was best answered by your experts locally. Most of us here would simply do what you probably did and pull up norms for your region etc.

      I was surely not meaning to make you uncomfortable. Post all you want about Alaska. Just that if you ask climate specific questions about your region your are not going to get the same types of answers for those questions more specific to our region. But then again someone on here is bound to know something so who knows.

      I know some users on he blog get pretty picky about posts. I am surely not one of them. Again I apologize if you took my comment as a “stop posting” comment.

    • jonathan says:

      np i guess i should of took it a lot better than i did srry. also im hoping to see the northern lights sometime soon. it will be my first time.

  32. bgb41 says:

    I often tell people that forecasting the duration and coverage of stratus north of the Umpqua Divide in Oregon is the most challenging forecast scenario there is in our region. Harder than forecasting snow.

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