Cool Pattern Continues Through Mid August

 

Duane Elvin of Battle Ground sent me this picture this evening.  Hard to believe there are red tomatoes (and yellow) up there in a cooler part of Clark County.  Here’s the response Duane sent me when I asked how he got so many in such a cool spot: 

 “I started all my tomatoes inside then in green house,  and  planted them out  around Memorial day (last year wasnt till the 2nd week in june)..  Payed alot of attention to the weather and watered/fertilized (fish emulsion often)  when needed”

Apparently planting them and keeping them watered just doesn’t do it for me.  Maybe I had better stick to carrots, lettuce, and squash?

Not much going on weatherwise this week.  The marine layer thinned nicely today and will stay that way tomorrow and Friday for a major warmup all the way to…AVERAGE.  Then a significant push Saturday and Sunday drops us back into the sub-80 degree range once again. 

Looking farther ahead, models seem to be converging on some sort of significant upper-level troughing for most of next week, starting either Monday or Tuesday.  Each model is different, but this appears to be the coolest, cloudiest, and probably wettest pattern we’ve seen since mid July.  In normal years we might say this is a hint of early Fall, but it’s kind of hard to tell this year since a real warm summer pattern never kicked in.

One thing we can say with a bit of confidence now that models show no big warmup through the middle of August?  We probably won’t see a heat wave this year.  We don’t get long stretches of hot weather after mid August even in a hot year.  Sure, a few 90+ days are possible, or even a 100, but no 5 day stretches in the 95+ range.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

 

72 Responses to Cool Pattern Continues Through Mid August

  1. Cliff Gavic, 1,100 ft says:

    Nice weather…rain overnight. (?)

  2. No drizzle here, yet. 59 degrees.

  3. bgb41 says:

    Drizzle this morning.

  4. Looks like almost the entire west side is socked in today. Should be rather cool the next few days, but models are flopping around on later in the week just how warm it gets.

  5. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Tell me it ain’t so. The models are unable to consistently tell us where the moisture is moving.

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    210 AM PDT SAT AUG 13 2011

    Precipitable water imagery shows values in excess of 1.5 inches
    being pulled North East of the closed low near 37n 150w. Current model runs handle the movement of this moisture inconsistently…but the similarities of the GFS…NAM and CMC suggest deeper moisture being entrained into the northern trough…and spreading into the forecast
    area Sun night and Monday. As such…will bump up probability of precipitation slightly then.

  6. bgb41 says:

    8/12/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:96 at NORTH FORK MALHE(3270 ft)
    Low: 63 at Blalock(280 ft) & ALKALI FLAT(2495 ft) & Rufus(185 ft) & LITTLE MCCOY CRE(5080 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:56 at NERRS MET SITE A(10 ft) & MEARES Cape Mear(1421 ft)
    Low: 31 at DESCHUTES PORTAB (5100 ft ) & CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 56 degrees
    DESCHUTES PORTAB (87/31 ) (5100 ft )

  7. LOL. Mark colored his hair. hehehehehehe I think the midlife crisis is near.. LOL

  8. So, upon viewing today’s 12z EURO did anyone else notice the unseasonably strong jet nearing 50 N, 140 W? http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~​mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmw​f.html
    Kind of crazy to see this for mid-August.
    ———————————————
    Also seeing some brilliant pink-ish cirrus clouds out there right now. Somebody is witnessing an awesome sunset no doubt.

  9. 78 here so far today which is my warmest temp in over a week.

    I see the forecast snow level is as low as 7,000′ next week on Mt. Rainier.

  10. MasterNate says:

    This guy is calling for our 1st heatwave of the summer late next week. Click on WX cafe. I was hoping for a summer without the 90’s

  11. jonathan says:

    anyone know what this winter should be like here in anchorage?

    • It should be cold and snowy…that’s normal!

    • jonathan says:

      lol i kinda figured that out on my own. just my first time living in a city that gets snow every year.

    • SilentReader says:

      not to sound mean but why would you ask that question to a bunch of us PNW who don’t really track Anchorages norms or storm track? Although some on here might. My point is there must be some boards locally in that area that would have more relevant info for your area.

    • jonathan says:

      i recently moved here from the pnw. this is the only weather blog i like. the ones for my area are not used at all by ppl.

  12. The 12z GFS shows a small bullseye of precip over PDX Monday morning. Previous models had most of the moisture to our north.

  13. WEATHERDAN says:

    Salem is up to 74 with sunny skies at noon. Total sunshine this morning. Should hit 85 today, 80-85 Saturday, and near 80 on Sunday with some increasing clouds late. After mostly cloudy skies on Monday with highs only 70-75 we should warm up to 80 by next Wednesday. And to the upper 80’s by next weekend. Looks real nice out to the end of August. Carpe diem. By the way does anyone know when the OMSI weather conference on this upcoming winter weather?

  14. bgb41 says:

    06Z GFS – http://i51.tinypic.com/21lpdhf.jpg

    Last two runs of the GFS showing warm dry conditions once again for the long term. Gotta believe at some point we get a decent ridge before this month is done.

  15. 5th low in August in the 40s. 47.7 this morning. Actually it’s my 2nd coldest low of the month so far behind 45.9 on the 1st.

  16. Derek Hodges says:

    July PDO came in at -1.86 I think it was. I scanned over the numbers earlier and if I remember right it was either 4th or 5th lowest on record for July.

    • Punxsutawney (aka HIOPHIL) at work by Sunset High elev ~280' says:

      Take a look at this, especially the last few frames. Classic -PDO signature.

      Or maybe the radiation from Fukushima. 😉

      http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?climate_sst160+/180d/5d

      Now the question is: Is the persistent trough off the West Coast causing the Neg PDO, or is the Neg PDO giving us our trough and cool weather?

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      I’d be willing to lean towards the -PDO causing the traughing.

    • Derek Hodges says:

      The PDO isn’t a driver per say. What we see on those SSTA maps is a reflection of atmospheric patterns. So it all depends on how you define it I guess. But the PDO being that negative and us having so many troughs is no coincidence.

  17. Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

    The latest GFS run has zero 90 degree days in it with Just enough onshore flow to keep temps around 80-85 beyond day 6. Cliff Mass was right that Enso might have become neutral over the spring & summer but this La Nina like pattern isn’t letting go 😦 .

  18. Karl Bonner says:

    I have something to ask about what would happen if the trough never does break over the next couple months. What kind of temps (highs and lows) would early next week’s trough setup bring if it happened in mid-September? Mid-October?

  19. g says:

    Looking out about 15 days or so ( Aug. 26-28 to be axact) how does hot weather look for central oregon for that weekend, if someone dares to surmise.

  20. Here are pics from my trip up Silver Star again on the 10th. This time I took the short (Ed’s) trail, just 5.7 miles RT, vs the nearly 13 last time.

    The flowers are beautiful but you can tell some are past their peak!

    I was hoping to be above the low clouds when I arrived at the summit, but instead arrived to mostly sunny conditions with some clouds above the summit level.

  21. The big western ridge is very close to us next week hence the models are having difficulties with just where it ends up. In this case 150 miles can make a huge diff in terms of how hot/cool we get.

  22. WEATHERDAN says:

    At 3:00 PM Salem is sunny and 78. On our way to 83. This will be the 26th day so far in 2011 over 80. Looking ahead to next week a short but decent trough over us will knock us down to the low to mid 70’s for a few days. But we should be back up to the low 80’s by the 20th. I still believe we will see at least a couple more days in the low 90’s in Salem by the end of August, and 2-4 more in September. I don,t see an early autumn this year. Our fall weather pattern usually kicks in sometime between the 10th and the 20th of October. As for this winter I think it will be about normal. Which means a little colder than last winter with a little more snow. But not a real cold one. Even some snow would be better than last years crummy winter,

  23. pappoose in scappoose says:

    There go the models…arguing and getting out of phase again.

    National Weather Service Portland or
    233 PM PDT Thursday Aug 11 2011

    Long term…medium range models generally agree on the overall pattern of bringing the offshore trough inland and through the forecast area early next week. However…the varying models differ on
    when the offshore trough will push inland and differ on the strength of the trough. The European model (ecmwf) quickly becomes out of phase with the other
    models…so will lean more toward the GFS. An associated surface front will brush the northwestern zones with some light rain Sunday afternoon through Monday. The main trough will move through the
    forecast area Tuesday. Models show a possible Flat Ridge building into the area by midweek for a slow warming trend Wednesday and Thursday.

    • Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

      Leaning toward the GFS is like betting on a sure loser to win a horse race 😆

    • Right now, the GOLU model has a 100% accuracy rate…..

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Hahaah! You guys know I mainly operate off the GOLU model. Unblemished record.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      The NWS must have heard you Mike. Today they have decided to go with the euro:

      National Weather Service Portland or
      202 PM PDT Friday Aug 12 2011

      Models are in better agreement on the timing of the cold front and are all trending toward a wetter system. In coordination with our surrounding offices we are leaning toward the European model (ecmwf) model…which has
      more precipitation than the GFS model. Have increased the probability of precipitation accordingly…especially Sunday night and Monday as the front moves through the forecast area. Likens

  24. 12z EURO says “NO” to any warm up. The brief ridge that popped up over us is gone. May as well bring on Fall?

  25. jonathan says:

    news here in anchorage said this may be are last push of summer here in anchorage.

  26. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    It really would have been interesting to see yesterday’s 12z GFS become reality. I know that wouldn’t be summer-like and we need more warmth, but for someone who enjoys to see extremes every once and a while I would have liked. Having a heavy rain event with almost a windstorm in August, sure would be fun to go through.

    • Runrain says:

      If it’s extremes that are sought, I’d advise folks to check out the latest stock market activity. But please, if you have heart condition, seek your physicians approval first!

    • Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

      Yea, I’m a loan officer and it has been quite a ride lately. Lock the rate, no float, lock, float.

      I hope the weather is nice for the airshow in Hillsboro next weekend. It also happens to be my bday. Let’s go for sunny and 78.

  27. Jbpdx says:

    Somebody said: “A beautiful start to this Pre-Friday! We’ll be waking up to crystal blue conditions….”

    Solid overcast just now breaking up at 11 a.m.

  28. Melisa says:

    All I want is enough heat to ripen my tomatoes and figs. Really. That’s all I ask.

  29. bgb41 says:

    06Z GFS @ KTTD http://i53.tinypic.com/keyk2f.jpg

    Last two runs have changed significantly. This run is the warmest run all summer. Is it too good to be true? It would be nice to get some offshore flow at the end of August. 12Z may pull the plug on this type of weather. Time will tell.

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      I’ve pretty much thrown the GFS out of the window this summer beyond 5-7 days. It has swung wildly many times when trying to predict long term. The EURO has been far more reliable.

      This winter I know I’ll be using the EURO as guidance and maybe even the Canadian model ahead of the GFS. Something about the latest itteration of the GFS that has killed it’s reliability beyond on 7 days.

    • Karl Bonner says:

      Obviously that 102 is in Outer LaLa Land at the moment.

      But it’s worth pondering about what typically happens to our weather in late summer. Average highs in the southern Willamette Valley near Eugene don’t dip below 80 until a few days into September, and are still 76-77 in mid-September. Portland’s about 2 degrees F cooler for highs than Eugene is, of course.

      And even if it’s very tough to get several consecutive days above about 92-94 in late August and early September, there is still potential for some hot days. Saying that we probably won’t have a “heat wave” this year is misleading, because the definition of a heat wave ought to become a bit looser as you move away from the highest part of summer. A string of 3-5 consecutive days in the upper 80s would count as a heat wave in the second half of September, and in early October it would be regarded as a scorcher.

    • SilentReader says:

      karl – yeah but we are just coming off summer and we are quite used to 75-80’s by now. So i don’t think it will feel like a heat wave. If it was the other flip side of the seasons. say early spring going into summer then yeah it would surely feel like one.

  30. I’ve already used up all my colorful language so now what do I say? I Guess planning another floating day on the river is out next weekend when I was hoping to. My last one started in the 60’s and cloudy and ended low 70’s with partly sunny skies a bit chilly for sure!

    I would still love a heat wave this September that puts July 2009 to shame!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Don’t have any colorful language either glorious. I’m quite sure a “HEAT WAVE” is on its way though. Mark pretty much guaranteed one with his statement that it won’t happen! Hahaah!

  31. Chuck on Mt Scott says:

    I too am enjoying the dry cool/warm days. I hope it lasts well into November. I want to hear people complaining about no snow in the mountains by Thanksgiving. But, my gut tells me, snow will fall in the mountains around Halloween 😦 Now of course a trough will drop down next week as my family and I will be at the coast for 10 days. Summer will resume on day 11. Hahaha

  32. Hmmm, well I’d take this with a grain of salt, but FWIW both the 00z GFS/EURO are much warmer in the long term(Beyond day 8-9).
    http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html

    A deep upper low digs well offshore sliding it south down 40 N, and our first decent ridge of the Summer develops right and even amplifies fairly decently. I also see a pretty good t-storm pattern as well. It sure would be nice to see the 12z suite of models later today agreeing with this.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      So today’s 12z was just a fluke. I was hoping it wasn’t! Honestly. Although more t-storms are a good change, bring it.

    • Karl Bonner says:

      That EURO shows most of the ridge staying east of the Cascades, at least the really hot part. Then again, I’m not all that good with translating 850mb heights into afternoon high temps at low elevations. What kind of high temps would an 850mb of +15C over Portland lead to?

      On the other hand, it definitely looks a lot more ridgy than 90% of the summer has been so far.

    • Karl Bonner says:

      One more thought: Wouldn’t it be wild if the hottest weather pattern of 2011 occurred in September, or better yet, the second half of September? Given that we’ve already had some multiple-day stretches of 90+ in The Dalles, it would be tough to pull off here – we’d have to get at least 3 or 4 consecutive days in the mid 90s. But the Willamette Valley and PDX/VAN might have an easier time pulling off a stunt like this, given that they haven’t seen any 90s yet this year.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Karl, you would be correct. The 00Z EURO shows most of the warm air staying to our east toward the end of the run, which would mean onshore flow and 80s at the warmest.

      The last few frames of the 00Z EURO aren’t even as warm as the least few frames of the 12Z EURO….

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      Like I mentioned above… At this point I’d toss the GFS beyond 7-days. The EURO has been so much more consistent at prediciting long term weather patterns.

    • Nah that was showing at least mid-upper 80’s with the ridge axis briefly right along the Coast for one day, then onshore flow resumed after wards.

  33. Longview - 400 ft says:

    I to am enjoying this below average warm temps.
    Anything over 75 is to warm or hot for me.

    Great summer!!!

  34. I’m actually enjoying this cool summer….Morning clouds and afternoon sun is fine with me….

    • Karl Bonner says:

      I think the best part about a cool summer (besides being able to run and work outside comfortably) is that I can wear a fitted hat, hoodie and jeans (or better yet sweats) a lot. Comfy and stylish alike…But that doesn’t mean I despise warm weather. I like it for the balmy evenings and bike rides and campouts and all.

      Actually I remember my freshman year at the UO (fall 2000) that once I was wearing a t-shirt and shorts at night with temperatures slightly below freezing. That year we had a very dry winter with lots of cold, clear nights in the mid and upper 20s, and people were actually hoping for rain just because it would keep temperatures a bit warmer.

      Strange how the very first winter I lived west of the Cascades happened to be so unusually dry.

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