La Nina Watch Issued

Still on vacation through Sunday, but just came across the tidbit from the Climate Prediction Center (NOAA).  I grabbed a few excerpts from their discussion here:

“The majority of ENSO models, and all multi-model average forecasts indicate ENSO-neutral will continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011…

Beyond the early fall, the forecasts are less certain with half of the models persisting ENSO-neutral conditions continuously through early 2012. Along with a few other models, the latest runs from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) models predict La Niña to re-develop during the fall.  This forecast is also supported by the ongoing La Niña-like tropical atmosphere, subsurface temperature trends, and the historical tendency for significant wintertime La Niña episodes to be followed by relatively weaker La Niña episodes the following winter.

Therefore, ENSO-neutral is expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011, with ENSO-neutral or La Niña equally likely thereafter.”

 

So even though we are technically out of La Nina right now:

A:) some aspects of the global atmosphere still reflect La Nina conditions (a trough along the West Coast the past 5+ months???)

B:) we may slip back into at least weak La Nina conditions this upcoming winter.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

 

85 Responses to La Nina Watch Issued

  1. Karl Bonner says:

    Have the last two days been muggy up near Portland/Vancouver? Because yesterday in Eugene was really sticky with dewpoints up to 62-64 in late afternoon. Today was a bit drier by day but late night felt sticky with DPs hanging out in the 55-57 range.

    Despite all the humidity and a cloud deck that didn’t break until about 1pm, we somehow managed to make 85 in Eugene…not American Deep South matter by a long shot, but maybe approaching a Northern Italy type humidity?

  2. bgb41 says:

    8/5/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:94 at Weatherby Rest A(2390 ft) & ALKALI FLAT(2495 ft) & NORTH FORK MALHE(3270 ft) & NORTH FORK MALHE(3270 ft)
    Low: 69 at Blalock(280 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:57 at TIDEWATER(2035 ft)
    Low: 36 at DESCHUTES PORTAB (5100 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 48 degrees
    FOSTER FLAT (85/37 ) (5000 ft )
    DESCHUTES PORTAB (84/36) (5100 ft)

  3. I always check this site…On the upper left, I look for the solar wind to exceed 600 km/sec for a better chance of seeing aurora. As of 24 minutes ago it was 570…so getting close.

    Also, note the ovals position in relation to us.

    http://www.spaceweather.com/

  4. B1900 Pilot says:

    Anyone have any thoughts on aurora possibilities tonight?
    http://www.gi.alaska.edu/AuroraForecast/2

  5. Kyle From Silverton says:

    What will this pattern likely be doing by Late December if we keep this up?

    And Jesse I know you were joking as I saw that smiley and your joke wasn’t personal against anybody actually and even if it was people on here need to grow a chill pill.

    • LOL right…. even Mark tells Jesse routinely to chill out, etc…. anyhow yeah,.. hmmm Late December… Well WNW flow aloft would still mean the trajectory of the air mass would move over 500+ miles of the Pacific Ocean, so if I had to guess I’d say snow levels 1000′ – 2000’….

  6. Gonna be great weather for the Jamboree in Vernonia this weekend. Free car show…logging show…live music…vendors…foooood!!!

  7. Jesse-Orchards says:

    Beautiful afternoon here, skies have cleared and it’s 74 degrees.

    Tomorrow looks to have slightly less morning cloudiness than today, probably enough to allow us to rise into the upper 70s rather than mid-70s.

  8. WEATHERDAN says:

    At 2:30 PM Salem is sunny and 74. 80-82 still looks good for today. Clouds started clearing out about 11:00 AM and were gone by 1:00 PM.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Looks like SLE is 77 as of 4pm, same temp they were at 3pm. Unlikely they hit 80 today. So much for 83-88 the next week huh? 😉

      Latest CPC outlook from noon today. Below avearage temps for Western Oregon and Washington for days 6-10 and 8-14:

    • @Jesse, who cares if he is right or wrong. We all can’t be perfect dude like yourself, so stop picking. I mean it isn’t your place to always feel like you need to correct or nitpick others. That’s actually pretty childish if you ask me. So what if he is off by 1 degree LOL. Just chill……

    • OH and the CPC outlook SUCKS

    • Marc (NE Vancouver) says:

      Everyone get your popcorn ready!

    • Salem is 79 as of 5 PM and still may reach 80/81 by 6 PM… WEATHERDAN pretty much wins this round.

      Nah, no Popcorn for me…. Kettle corn will do…..

    • Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

      I guess Some people never noticed that on days when the low clouds burn off around 1-3 PM that temps seem to increase steadily up until around 6 PM.

    • Kyle From Silverton says:

      Geez: Some of you need to grow up and learn to take a joke as Jesse was not once out of line.

      You folks defend the weather mets as if they are God almighty whom will throw down lightning upon the slightest teasing. :p

      Sick sick sick.

    • Kyle From Silverton says:

      As a matter of fact Jesse put the smiley there on purpose to show he/she was joking.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Looks like SLE was most likely 79 for a high soooooo…..it looks like I was right. Weatherdan consistently overpredicts high temps so not too surprising I guess.

      And thanks Kyle! People are wayyyyy too sensitive.

      Also, Mike in Clackamas, Geico called, they want the caveman from their old commercials back. Nice avatar pic bud! 😉

    • Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

      8 year kid right here^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ 😆

    • Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

      And at least I’m confident enough to have my profile pic on here…Where’s you profile pic Jesse??

    • Jesse, you have to be kidding me? LOL 1 stinking degree and you’re ripping DAN…. C’mon LOL…. Slow day eh just bored? ….

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Weatherdan said it would be 83-88 in Salem all week just yesterday, I told him he was probably wrong because there would be too much marine influence. Then Mark jumps in and defends him because he also has a warm bias this time of year. Today ends up at 79.

      What you need to learn is that there is nothing inherently wrong with disagreeing with somebody. If you learned to take criticism better it would do wonders for you.

      And Mike, you would see my pic if we were friends on facebook, but sorry dude you’re not cool enough. 😉

      “So easy even a caveman could do it!”

    • ? Dude you just can’t let it go, can you, Jesse? …. I kind of feel sorry for you. When you starting getting bad like this go find a hobby, a puzzle, anything…. You’re making yourself look like a major a$$ …..

    • Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

      And apparently you’re not cool enough to join the facebook group that has almost all of Mark’s blog members and some Portland Mets in it. 😆

    • Sifton says:

      “Geico”………it was so simple even Jesse could do it!

    • Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

      You know Jesse I’ve been made fun of my entire life so your cheap shots don’t bother me none. Just keep throwing out the classless one liners so I can be entertained more 😆

  9. wow, got bored and went international weather observing.

    check this out.

    Dhahran, Saudi Arabia:

    had a high of 118 today, hot, but factor in the DP of 71?? heat index of 131.

    they peaked at 113 with a DP of 77 for an index of 132.

    damn thats hot.

  10. one plus side so far to this summer, no sunburn yet. also, no tan either, haha. was looking forward to some 80 degree sunshine today and having some cold ones in the pool. guess ill have to re-plan my day. maybe go somewhere indoors with the heater on?

  11. FWIW the past 2 EURO runs try to build a ridge over the area towards the 12th – 14th.
    http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~​mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmw​f.html
    The heat ridge over the southern plains attempts to build westward and just never makes it here. A weak ridge pops up over us. It definitely isn’t sharp or amplified, but 588dm heights do flirt with us.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      I see weak troughing over us for the 12th-14th, heights between 576 and 582dm, lots of onshore flow….

      Are you sure you’re looking at today’s run?

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      On both the 12Z GFS and 12Z EURO I see no chance of warm (85+) weather for PDX the next 7-10 days. That takes us into Mid-August….

      Our window for a major heat event or even an extended stretch of days in the 90s is slowly closing. 🙂

    • I’m sure… 588dm heights to Eugene/Salem, and I see no major ridging either… 80-85 indeed.

  12. Overcast 61°….the same as it was at midnight last night.

    Thank goodness it is not as hot as it was 30 years ago back in 1981……..

  13. My warmest low of the year so far this morning. 59 degrees. Plus, my temperature has only moved from 59.9 to 59 i the last 8 hours.

  14. I forgot to ask, I’m not a smart weather guy (insert “duhhh” here), but when we were cool, cloudy, and wet didn’t Mark say that it happened because the midwest and most of the country was hot and so we get clobbered due to their ridge of high pressure?

    Now we are seasonal, yet everyone is still sizzling. Can someone explain the correlation?

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      The upper Midwest and Great Lakes region will cool off soon, with Canadian High pressure dropping in, thanks to our cool to seasonal flat ridging pattern

  15. Let’s make the Columbus day storm look like as quiet as today!

  16. Jesse-Orchards says:

    Bring on the NINA!!!!

  17. o.c.paul says:

    Wow, what a perfect summer! No 90’s and lately, no rain: It couldn’t be better. Hope ENSO predictions are right. Keep the ridge in the Midwest and the trough in the PNW this fall and winter. The opposite pattern left us high and dry last winter.. Thanks for the great news, Mark. Turn up the cold, turn up the wet, turn up the snow.

  18. Running 6 degrees cooler tonight than last night at the same time (78 vs 72) with a peak wind of 24 mph ushering in the ocean air.

  19. Muxpux says:

    Ughh, only made it to 75 here in Longview despite losing the marine clouds relatively early, and with the breeze, wasn’t very warm. However a few miles north in castle rock they hit 84, still at 83. 72 here now, and peaked at 74 down at the river, already 70 there.

    Sometimes I really hate how easy Longview gets socked in by the clouds. Especially knowing a few miles north or south puts u in the clear.

  20. Kyle From Silverton says:

    The marine layer sure isn’t making much clouds here the last week.

    We have had virtually wall to wall sunshine 3/4ths of the time with only a few puffy clouds once in a blue moon.

    This weather is perfect weather except my pain seems to increase under the influence of the sun.

    What we need is a nice dose of cold artic air bringing highs in the 60s with lows in the 30s……………………………….one can dream.

  21. Looks like a fire NW of the big storm in central Oregon.

    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?vis1km_west_full+6

    Either way, the storms are pretty impressive on the visible.

  22. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Surprise thunderheads not too far south of me, just started to skyrocket

  23. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Ooooops didn’t know there was a new post!!!

    I shared this about 30 minutes ago:

    Nicely developed complex of storms south of the CA border:

  24. Looks like Crook or Grant County may be Severe warned shortly. Nice cells. Echo tops 45/47k. Pretty nice VIL/Hail cores too….

  25. Jen says:

    I’m sorry that I sound ignorant (admittedly I sort of am on this topic) but what does all this mean?

  26. Thanks for the update, Mark.

    @Mike, I agree. I’m thinking Neutral to a very weak La Nina.

    Check out the image below

    This was taken from Cliff Mass’s book. You can see that ALL(8) of the historic south wind storms to strike the PNW since 1880 occurred during a Neutral year. So if we do end up with a Nina weaker than a -1c SST anomaly then I would be on my toes. It goes without saying that we are overdue and have dodged a bullet for 15-16 years.

    • bgmike says:

      Was the last major wind storm in December 1995?

    • Yessir, although for some it was December 14-15th 2006. For my location and many places east of I-5 that was the case. In fact it was much stronger here than during 1995 where the west side saw the brunt.

    • I hit 77 mph at my house in January 2000, and I think dt Vancouver hit 68 mph, that was pretty strong! However, that was more of a wind event aided by a thunderstorm.

    • This is pretty undeniable that our biggest wind storms have occurred during a Neutral cycle. I don’t find any other correlation between a Cold/Snowy/Warm/Wet/Dry Winter with a Nina or Nino as we’ve seen all of the above with either, but no damaging wind storm, at least according to Cliff Mass.

    • That sounded like fun! I’d take some of that for sure….

    • bgmike says:

      I remember in 2006 I had the power out the whole night. but I was not here in 1995.

    • Most memorable thing about 1995 was watching our huge living room window bowing in the wind and the shredding the trees took! Every time a big gust of wind would come the limbs would be falling like rain.

    • I remember the onset of that wind storm. I heard a very eerie roaring from the south and initially I did have 6-7 huge 60 mph gusts, but shortly after I estimate I never exceeded 40-50mph for the rest of the event. Certainly nothing compared to west of I-5/205.

    • Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

      I remember the DEC 1995 wind storm. I was actually crazy enough to go outside and watch the show 🙂 The next morning the tree limbs were littered all over the street and the power was out for almost 24 hours.

    • 2006’s wind storm for me was huge…. 60-70mph gusts for 6 hours. I enjoyed every minute of it. We are so strange us weather geeks….

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      I also remember coastal locations having an impressive windstorm on December 2007. I know at PDX it was mainly just a big wet pineapple with some 45+ mph winds.

    • Big PDX area windstorms have invariably been during neutral/semi-neutral years. Cliff Mass explains it well and the statistics speak for themselves. Some examples are the storms of Oct of ’62, March of ’63, Oct of ’67, Feb of ’65, Nov of ’81, Dec of ’95, and Jan of ’90. Could also add the Puget Sound region windstorms of Feb of ’79 and Jan of ’93 to the mix as well..

      Along with all this, we are OVERDUE for a south wind “event” here in the Portland area.

    • Runrain says:

      1981 was pretty cool, and those of us who remember Oct 12 never forget. Where are you, o Boring Larry??

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Right on Runrain. Bring on a October 12th replay.

  27. bgmike says:

    There better not be a blocking high in Greenland this winter.

  28. Still bodes well for a south windstorm…

  29. Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

    Well that’s good news!

  30. g says:

    Cold and snowy ?

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