La Nina Watch Issued

August 4, 2011

Still on vacation through Sunday, but just came across the tidbit from the Climate Prediction Center (NOAA).  I grabbed a few excerpts from their discussion here:

“The majority of ENSO models, and all multi-model average forecasts indicate ENSO-neutral will continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011…

Beyond the early fall, the forecasts are less certain with half of the models persisting ENSO-neutral conditions continuously through early 2012. Along with a few other models, the latest runs from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) models predict La Niña to re-develop during the fall.  This forecast is also supported by the ongoing La Niña-like tropical atmosphere, subsurface temperature trends, and the historical tendency for significant wintertime La Niña episodes to be followed by relatively weaker La Niña episodes the following winter.

Therefore, ENSO-neutral is expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011, with ENSO-neutral or La Niña equally likely thereafter.”

 

So even though we are technically out of La Nina right now:

A:) some aspects of the global atmosphere still reflect La Nina conditions (a trough along the West Coast the past 5+ months???)

B:) we may slip back into at least weak La Nina conditions this upcoming winter.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen