Mid Vacation Pics

I’m on vacation for one more week…forecast and maps appear to confirm that I’m not missing much weatherwise.  Of course I was not in town for the Monday morning surprise lightning last week…ugh!

Here are two great viewer photos…first from Gabor Gardonyi near Lyle (last night), and a sunset shot of Mt. Hood from Chris Markes:

 

 

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

111 Responses to Mid Vacation Pics

  1. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Nicely developed complex of storms south of the CA border:

  2. July 2011 at Vancouver (Minnehaha)

    Highest High: 85.5, 24th
    Lowest Low: 45.4, 22nd
    Highest Wind: NW 23, 6th, 31st
    Most Precip: 0.58″, 17th

    Total Precip: 1.05″ (+0.43″)

    Avg High: 75.6 (-3.3)–This beats my previous coldest average July high by 3.2 degrees! (78.8 in 1999)
    Avg Low: 53.3 (-0.3)
    Mean: 64.4 (-1.8) Coldest July mean beating out 66 in both 1999 and 2001.

    6th consecutive month with below average high and mean temps.

    5 new record lows (the most I’ve set since 2002)

  3. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Also very healthy mesoscale parameters for the southern OR Cascades:

    Surface Based CAPE: 1000-1500 J/kg
    Mixed Level CAPE: 500-1000 J/kg
    Most Unstable CAPE: 1000 J/kg
    Lifted Index: -4 (-5 in western Klamath / eastern Jackson Counties)
    Low Level Lapse Rates: 7.5 – 8.5

    All of these parameters look great… except that 0-6km shear values are less than 20 kts. This may not hold storms together very well and this will also result in fewer storms in the overall forecast area if this number stays where it is.

  4. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Very promising skies right now… These cumulus clouds could fire into some good cumulonimbus as the afternoon progresses:

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Moved or deleted? I did neither of those….

      Okay ill post it again.

  5. WEATHERDAN says:

    Today should be the 8th straight day over 80 in Salem with a high of 86. It looks like summer is finally here. The next 7-10 days all look to have highs between 83-88. Just about perfect. At 11:00 AM we are sunny and 73.0, Looks like the East and Midwest will start to cool down a bit over the next two weeks, so maybe we will get a bit warmer. I read this morning that it has been unusually hot in the mideast as well. Places that normally hit 110-115 have been 125-130 this summer. This is probably getting close to the maximums that humans can thrive in. The all time recorded high temperature recorded for Earth is 136 at Al Azzia Libya in 1936. Enjoy the sunny weekend.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      The next 7-10 days will NOT have highs between 83 and 88 in Salem. Have you even looked at the models? Way too much marine influence for temps that consistently warm. I don’t know why you insist upon essentially making things up with every post you make in order to soothe your warm bias but I wish you’d stop.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Stop being such a nitpicker Jesse. Salem has been 80+ for the last 8 days. The pattern doesn’t change significantly the next 7-10 days (not counting the marine push right now), so it’s reasonable to say the next 7-10 days will be mainly in the 80s in Salem.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      80s are reasonable but 83-88 is solidly in the wishcasting range.

      Tomorrow will probably be cooler than 83 for starters…

      I understand you like Summer warmth so you’ll take his side though Mark, it’s cool 😉

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Nit pick…split hairs…nit pick…split hairs…

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Here ya go WEATHERDAN.

      6-10 and 8-14 day outlook maps released this afternoon by the CPC:

      Looks BELOW AVERGE for the Pacific Northwest, including SALEM. Just like July was BELOW AVERGE, and the last six months were BELOW AVERAGE. Lots of BELOW AVERAGE WEATHER all around!

  6. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    So looks like no storms formed last night but was worth the watch at least…

  7. pappoose in scappoose says:

    “OBVIOUSLY THESE MODELS CAN DETECT AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT IS NOT APPARENT TO ME”. Hahaah! Must be time for the GOLU model!

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/041443.shtml

  8. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Great weather. Chance of Stray Albino Donkeys from “about Montana Jefferson south”. Hahaah! Natural AC operating well.

    National Weather Service Portland or
    906 am PDT Thursday Aug 4 2011

    Short term…water vapor imagery shows the upper trough along the
    Oregon coast with some southerly flow increasing the middle level
    moisture over the Oregon Cascades…mainly in the south and central portions. Models indicate pretty good instability/cape during the late afternoon and evening from about Montana. Jefferson south with weak instability in the north Oregon Cascades.
    A weak upper level trough will persist over the eastern Pacific
    through the extended forecast period. This pattern will maintain
    fairly constant conditions through the extended period. Temperatures will fluctuate around normal…with onshore flow tending to persist and maintain night and morning low clouds.

    And these are the best of the best eh Rob. Hahaah!

  9. Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

    The atmosphere wasn’t warm enough to see any T-storm action west of the cascades last night. Too much marine influence killed any chances before it started 😦

  10. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    And I thought I linked a video to my comment that I posted at 7:36 PM yesterday whats up with that.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Okay here it is. This is what I was talking about earlier, enjoy:

  11. Kyle From Silverton says:

    *Police goes to Timmy’s door and Timmy gets issued a summons to appear in court for racial language on a social internet site in regarding the spiders*

    That’s where our government is headed in the next 10 years unless we stop the herd even if it means another *revolution* again to preserve our freedom.

  12. Austin (Cornelius) says:

    Do you guys know how Indians can sence when storms are coming? Well Im part native American (don’t know tribe so don’t ask) and I’ve been looking to the south, everytime I look to the south, I get that exact sensation that something big and bad is coming. Oh yeah! It was my b-day last Friday! 🙂 17

    • Austin (Cornelius) says:

      And this isn’t just tonight, it’s been the past few days.

    • Kyle From Silverton says:

      All I know is I flew a Douglas airplane twin engine in Flight Simulator X and flew it north to about Mcminnville area which the weather was as clear as a bell with a few puffy clouds to the west:

      *I was using Real World Weather data on the simulation that updates in real time to the software*

  13. bgb41 says:

    8/3/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:98 at ALKALI FLAT(2495 ft)
    Low: 69 at ALKALI FLAT(2495 ft) & CW2286 Monument(2021 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:59 at YACHTS Yachats(74 ft)
    Low: 32 at DESCHUTES PORTAB (5100 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 55 degrees
    DESCHUTES PORTAB (87/32 ) (5100 ft )

  14. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Lots of MU CAPE still left over along the whole stretch of Cascades tonight, and as Rob mentioned, good amounts of shear could result in nocturnal convection. Radar trends show favorable South moisture flow. I’ll be up for a while watching this.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      But then again my location could completely dodge anything that does develop. There’s always that rotten chance.

  15. A warmer and bit muggier evening has unfolded. Water Vapor imagery shows the flow is backing to southerly with a trough offshore. Mesoanalysis indicates marginally sufficient elevated instability in place with steepening mid-level lapse rates on the order of 7C/km. Some effective Bulk Shear is also starting to develop. So the question is do with the trough approaching and temps aloft slowly cooling do we see convection fire near/after midnight along the Cascades and possible the Foothills?

  16. g says:

    I could of sworn that “b” in hobo was “m”.

  17. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    A little off topic…. but I put two hobo spiders in a jar together last night, and they faught to the death!

  18. Officeman says:

    Cosest lightning strike I’ve ever seen caught on video. Check it out but be warned the language is VERY NSFW

  19. Here are pics from my hike to Silver Star on the 1st. Great wildflower show and the skies were a brilliant blue with just a few puffy cumulus clouds. Later in the day there were some pretty impressive storms east of the Cascades behind Mt. Hood and Mt. Jefferson.

  20. runrain says:

    It is interesting that we’ve been getting these sunny mornings without excessively warm days. It usually takes an offshore flow to get the morning sun in the summer and that typically spells heat. Lately, we’re getting the sunny mornings and around 80 for the high temp. That’s about as best case scenario as you can get!

  21. gidrons says:

    Solar output dropped in July for third month in a row and well below projections for this solar cycle.
    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/

  22. Runrain says:

    Slow weather question: anyone get tired of the overuse by the news media of the filler phrase “as well”?

  23. bgb41 says:

    As of today, the NWS Portland is using the new daily norms based on the newest 30 year climo period (1981-2010). For the first time ever, Portland has an average daily temp of 82/59 for today. So cool to see that.

    Here is the link to todays daily summary:

    • Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

      That’s cool. How do the 30 year mean temps generally compare to the historic mean temps?

    • bgb41 says:

      The last 30 year period is across the board warmer than historic numbers.

    • Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

      That definitely makes sense. I used to look at The Weather Channel’s average high and low temps on specific dates and they certainly seemed on the low side- especially in summer.

  24. bgb41 says:

    8/2/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:98 at Weatherby Rest A(2390 ft) & ALKALI FLAT(2495 ft)
    Low: 71 at Blalock(280 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:58 at YACHTS Yachats(74 ft)
    Low: 34 at CRAZYMAN FLAT (6100 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 49 degrees
    Lakeview, Lake C (86/37 ) (4734 ft )

  25. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Excellent post by Cliff Mass. I think most of us know the NWS is responsible for 90% of the forecast info we get. Just a different spin thrown on it by some. Takes a lot of work on our part to find the truly good/knowledgeable Mets like Mark Nelsen who take the time to really analyze whats happening and give us the other options that could play out. In my opinion they’re few and far between.

    • Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

      I can name a few Mets that copy & paste forecasts from the NWS..A guy I won’t name over at KATU is probably copying & pasting all the time 😆

    • What I will say about the NWS is that I guess I am often disappointed with them. If they are so highly trained, skilled, and qualified with various degrees, then they need to bring more to the table with their Local Forecast Discussions and should RARELY copy/paste them. Sometimes during a very stable weather pattern I can understand if there is little change to wording, but too many times even during the Fall/Winter they lack technical info, or don’t update things at all. Another beef is sometimes they are just a bit too slow with warnings(Severe Thunderstorm, Tornado, or High Wind Warnings)

    • yetanotherguy says:

      The NWS does an great job. Not only do they have to make local forecasts for a fairly wide area, but these forecasts need to be blended in to the forecasts of other offices in order to produce a logical national forecast map, as well as a myriad of other duties beyond producing forecasts. Another thing, their job goes way beyond just “weather forecasting”. And as Mr. Moss states, it is really hard to get a job there. They really get their pick of the litter of degreed mets.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Certainly agree with you in regards to giving us more info, Rob. I’m like the drunk looking for the lost bottle…gotta have MORE. Give me MORE DATA…NOW!

  26. bgb41 says:

    At 4pm CDT—Oklahoma currently ON FIRE!!!!

    Here is a list of the 46 NWS stations this hour

  27. bgb41 says:

    Brutal heatwave in Eastern Oklahoma again today. Tulsa had an overnight low of 87 with DP of 67. Temp hit 100 by 10:45am this morning there. Heading for a record 110-112 today.

    • Sean (Lebanon, IN) says:

      We have a couple of locations for my company out in OK. They have been just miserable out there. A little better here, but today is Day #17 in a row of 90+ high temps, 19 in a row is the record. Going to be close each day of hitting 90, for the rest of the week.

      I would love to have the weather you are all experiencing. Actually pretty jealous, LOL!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Right Sean, the NASCAR boys (kings of the left hand turn) were melting out your way last weekend, may not be much better this weekend in Long Pond PA.

    • Garron says:

      Crazy hot!!! My friends headed to Kansas for a funeral on Monday, it was 115 there.

  28. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    July 31st was an amazing lightning event, I’d say that was probably about equal to the April 29th 2003 event that the Portland Metro had. Lightning became very frequent and the thunder was just a constant rumble that wouldn’t stop at one point. I was expecting a few severe thunderstorm warnings coming out of a few of the cells, but none were issued as no hail or winds occurred with the storms.

    I thought that the more lightning a storm has means that it is a little stronger, but strength actually has nothing to do with frequency of lightning. I don’t recall any reports of hail passing 1/2 inch in diameter or any winds exceeding 30 mph.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Only a few reports of 0.25″ hail in Klamath and Siskiyou counties, but thats barely even considered hail. 🙂

  29. pappoose in scappoose says:

    I’m so glad Rod Hill got the sun out of his eyes. Thanks Rod…think I will get another cup.

    http://rodhillforecast.com/weather/daily-planner-video.html

  30. pappoose in scappoose says:

    NWS suggests increasing clouds today:

    National Weather Service Portland or
    226 am PDT Tuesday Aug 2 2011

    After a bit warmer day with less low clouds and more sunshine on
    Monday…today we will be dealing with the effects of a system off
    the Washington coast. The upper part of the system will be shearing out ahead and across Washington and far northern Oregon today. It looks as though higher clouds will be the initial impact this morning…with middle clouds spreading onshore in the afternoon. A marine layer has developed along the coast overnight ahead of this system…and the low clouds are pushing into the Coast Range and the coastal gaps more aggressively than indicated by the low level relative humidity fields of any of the models. Ceilings along the coast are in the 1500 to
    2500 foot range…with some clouds developing inland around 6000
    feet. I have gone with more low clouds inland this morning than we
    previously forecast…but am not sure at this point how solid they
    will end up. Have trended afternoon temperatures down a couple of degrees…though we should see some sunshine this afternoon…
    filtered a bit in the north by the middle level clouds moving through.

  31. bgb41 says:

    8/1/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:98 at LAKE OWYHEE AND O(2400 ft)
    Low: 71 at BULLY CREEK RESE(2500 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:57 at YACHTS Yachats(74 ft)
    Low: 35 at DESCHUTES PORTAB (5100 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 51 degrees
    DESCHUTES PORTAB (86/35 ) (5100 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.71″ at W7DJH Prineville(3619ft)
    0.51″ at CW3808 Enterpris(3927ft)
    0.50″ at ANEROID LAKE #2(7300ft)
    0.42″ at Joseph State Air(4120ft)

  32. Karl Bonner says:

    The Dalles airport (DLS) July 2011

    Summary. “Mild” is the one word that best describes July 2011 in the East Gorge. While residents of the maritime Northwest rightfully complained about cool overcast days, those of us in and near the lower Columbia Basin got a reprieve from the extreme heat that can often plague our region during the height of summer.

    In the first 22 days of the month there were only three days that reached 90 or above; the balance was a roughly equal mix of 70s and 80s for highs. Also present were quite a few unseasonably cool nights – eight such nights had lows of 54 or cooler – and zero “subtropical” nights with lows of 65 or warmer.

    It was also a “wet” month for The Dalles, if you count four rainy days and nearly a half inch of precip as wet. That’s more than double the historical average for July.

    Despite being unmistakeably cool by historical standards, temps here were still significantly warmer than an average July in the Willamette Valley, which means that heat-loving vegetables were as happy here this year as they would be in a really good year west of the mountains.

    Hard temperature and precip data:

    Hottest temp 99
    Coldest temp 48
    Coldest high 73
    Warmest low 64
    Warmest mean 78
    Coldest mean 65
    Greatest diurnal swing (midnight-to-midnight): 44
    Least diurnal swing MTM: 10

    Averaged high 83.6
    Averaged low 58.1
    Averaged mean 70.5
    Averaged diurnal 25.5

    Total precip 0.48″
    Wettest day 0.19″
    Number of days with rain: 4

  33. john says:

    i hope we have a cold winter with lots of snow

    • Karl Bonner says:

      As long as it’s preceded by a toasty Indian summer, followed by a pleasant spring, and temps don’t go below 15F in Portland or 5F in The Dalles, I’ll take a fairly cold and wet winter.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      What’s with the temp benchmarks, trying to protect the palms you’ve been single handedly trying to introduce to Wasco County?

      Personally I hope it gets to -30F in The Dalles and 0F in PDX and murders everything that ever resembled a palm in the PNW north of the 42nd parallel.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Right john/Jesse, no benchmarks. Drop the temp this winter to frightening levels and dump enough snow on my roof to rip all the gutters off the house!

  34. boringlarry says:

    Howdy from lost creek camp, where its about perfect for weather now….upper 70s and.around 50 at night……makes for happy campers…looking forward to being on a real computer soon…..season up here ends in a month, then it looks like I’m ending up on the clackamas side for the winter,with power and internet….talk to you all soon!!

  35. joe says:

    so after a cool spring and summer i wonder if fall will do the same

  36. http://classic.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KORPORTL110

    ———————————————————————————————
    Averages\Extremes for the month of July 2011

    ———————————————————————————————
    Average temperature = 65.5°F (Lowest July average temperature)
    Average humidity = 61%
    Average dewpoint = 50.3°F
    Average barometer = 30.010 in.
    Average windspeed = 2.8 mph
    Average gustspeed = 4.0 mph
    Average direction = 338° (NNW)
    Rainfall for month = 0.878 in. (Highest rainfall for July) (Average is .38”)
    Rainfall for year = 26.697 in. (Highest rainfall for year at this point)
    Maximum rain per minute = 0.131 in on day 13 at time 03:27
    Maximum temperature = 89.4°F on day 24 at time 17:15 (Lowest maximum temperature for July)
    Minimum temperature = 47.7°F on day 01 at time 05:57 (Tied lowest Minimum temperature for July) (2010)
    Maximum humidity = 100% on day 18 at time 07:14
    Minimum humidity = 22% on day 23 at time 16:57
    Maximum dewpoint = 61.2°F on day 17 at time 14:23
    Minimum dewpoint = 36.2°F on day 09 at time 14:36
    Maximum pressure = 30.25 in. on day 08 at time 01:51
    Minimum pressure = 29.69 in. on day 15 at time 19:51
    Maximum windspeed = 12.7 mph from 180°( S ) on day 16 at time 16:14
    Maximum gust speed = 17.3 mph from 360°( N ) on day 28 at time 19:35
    Maximum heat index = 87.5°F on day 24 at time 17:11

    Avg daily max temp :76.5°F
    Avg daily min temp :55.4°F
    Total windrun = 1921.7miles

    Record low wind chill temperature = 47.7 on day 01 at time 05:38
    Record daily rain = .70” on day 17
    Record rain in 1 hour = 0.21” on day 17 at time 11:34
    Warmest day (6am to 6pm) = 76.2 on day 24
    Coldest night (6pm to 6am) = 56.8 on day 01
    Coldest day (6am to 6pm) = 60.6 on day 17
    Warmest night (6pm to 6am) = 70.2 on day 25

    ———————————–
    Daily rain totals
    ———————————–
    00.13 in. on day 12
    00.04 in. on day 16
    00.70 in. on day 17

    *Records started October 2008*

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Dude, it was bad enough you spammed the last post with this wall of text, why this one too?

    • It’s only 49 lines of text, big deal….. J.R. always posts his monthly stats. I’ve had posts before over 80.

    • I didn’t spam anything. Look up spamming in the dictionary before you use it in a sentence bro. I posted it on this one as well because I didn’t notice the new post till after I posted it and thought no one would see it on the old post. But I shouldn’t really have to explain myself because I honestly don’t give F what you think 🙂

    • Boydo3 N. Albany 500' says:

      Every blog has it’s nag.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Right, spam is advertising. JR was posting information and data about July’s weather, not advertising a weather station!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Lots of folks like to compare their monthly stats.

    • Muxpux says:

      Irony is that jesses post in this one is the EXACT thing he posted in the old post. Pot, meet kettle.

      And btw, Jesse, your right, we are past the time when it’s hard to get a heatwave. Definitely past the “worst” of summer. I’ve never experienced a heatwave in august or a hot sept. Jeez.
      /sarcasm

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Muxpux, Sun angle does start to play a role after mid-August. That doesn’t mean heat waves are impossible at that point, but they are less likely to be long-lived and less likely to go extreme with 100+ temps. This is just a fact of our climate.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Also, the last week of July is our hottest on average, so we have made it past the worst of Summer, technically.

    • bgb41 says:

      NCEP seasonal outlooks did mention the likelyhood of a late summer this year. A few of those 90’s could easily surface at the end of Aug and into Sept. Especially as we enter the foehn wind season.

  37. Jesse-Orchards says:

    Just a month until meteorological Fall!

    In fact in just two weeks the days start shortening enough that it is harder for us to have long stretches of heat. 100+ becomes a lot harder to attain post August 15th. Average temps start dropping off by the 10th.

    We have already made it through the hottest part of the Summer on average (the last week of July) with this nice cool weather overall. 🙂 And that looks to continue.

    It’s been a great Summer so far.

  38. WEATHERDAN says:

    A beautiful weekend in Salem wall to wall sunshine and a nice northerly breeze. 87 on Saturday, and 84 on Sunday. We should be back up around 87 today, and 83-88 through the rest of the week into the weekend. But still no big heatwave in sight. As for July 30 days reached 70 degrees. 14 days reached 80 degrees. And 2 days reached 90 degrees. The high for the month was 90, and the low was 46. .74 inches of precipitation fell. Going out 16 days looks just about the same as this week. If we stay in this pattern through October we may end up close to normal or just a little below. In 1974 we had 45 days over 80 from August through October. In 1993 that number was 38. Normal for Salem is 62 days over 80 each year. So if we have an additional 40 that would give us 57 for the summer. Hardly the worst summer we have ever had. And hey after what most of the rest of the country is having for weather this summer, I won’t complain about ours.

  39. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Those are some nice shots… I will need to upgrade to a 1080p HD cam for stuff like this.

  40. bgb41 says:

    I can see those transformer towers in the background in that Lyle picture. I have mtn biked that whole ridge before all the way to Stacker Butte.

  41. Nice Pictures…Enjoy the rest of your vacation Mark… Great weather around here!

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