A Warm Weekend; Plus Vacation Time

For those of you waiting for some real summer weather (you know, at least average temps and bright sunny skies), we have a few days of that coming up.  Onshore flow weakens dramatically overnight, so after morning clouds we should see quite a bit of sun.  The upper-level ridge centered over the eastern half of the USA briefly noses a bit closer to the West Coast over the weekend, allowing the atmosphere to warm to normal or slightly above.  The average 850mb temperature in the month of July over the Willamette Valley is about 14 degrees C.  We should see it as high as +16 later Saturday and Sunday.  Add the fact that wind flow overhead goes flat or weakly offshore both days, and we could touch 90 in spots.  It’ll be close at PDX.

Beyond that, strong onshore flow returns Monday and Tuesday.  Models still in some disagreement beyond 5-7 days, which has been the story so far this summer.  Generally it looks near or below normal temp-wise the latter half of next week.

I’ll be off for the next two weeks, not returning to work until August 8th.  I like to use up vacation time during the best weather of the year…we’ll see if that actually occurs this year.  Plus we rarely have any interesting weather…not much to miss here at work.

I’ll probably post something about a week from now or else comments shut off automatically after 10 days.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

37 Responses to A Warm Weekend; Plus Vacation Time

  1. Jbpdx says:

    Pretty lame day overall. Only got to 72. Clouds all day long, until it’s too late, 6pm, sun behind the trees…

  2. Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

    All-time records were broken in the NE U.S. today
    http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/northeast-heat-records-notables_2011-07-22 😯

  3. N3EG says:

    Wow. 104F where I grew up in Philly. I don’t remember it ever hitting 100 in the 20 years I lived there.

    • Karl Bonner says:

      It’s strange how a place can get oppressive in the summer but never go over 100. It’s all about the high (65+) dewpoints and warmer nights.

  4. bgb41 says:

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  5. Was 64.5° at 10am, now its just 60.4…..

  6. bgb41 says:

    12Z GFS @ KTTD – A near perfect run with 11 days in the 80s and no rain.

  7. WEATHERDAN says:

    54 for this mornings low down here in Salem. Now under mostly sunny skies the temperature has rebounded to 64. Looks like about 79 today. That’s up five from Thursday. Both Saturday are expected to be in the upper 80,s. Either day could hit 90. So far just one day at 90 degrees. The following are state maximum heat indexes as of yesterday at 1:00 PM PDT. Ohio-117, Illinois-116, Michigan-115, Missouri-111, Indiana-109. All of a sudden 77 and partly cloudy doesn’t sound so bad. Interesting first looks at the winter outlook for 2011-2012 now out on the internet. Most call for cold and snowy for the Pacific Northwest. I take them with a grain of salt. But still interesting to read. Enjoy the nice weather this weekend everybody.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      At Noon Salem is Mostly Sunny and 68 degrees. Some patchy cumulus about. Light North breeze. High today should be 78-81 degrees. Perfection.

    • Kyle From Silverton says:

      Don’t worry: It will snow a lot this winter…………………….at day 8.

  8. phil in Beaverton says:

    Hey, what happened to that sunshine? At ~8AM it was sunny & clear here without a cloud in the sky…. no at 10AM there’s no blue sky in sight. Is this panning out to be another fizzled forecast?

    • Jbpdx says:

      Completely cloudy at 10.30. Getting worse and thicker not better, looking at sat map. Is there gonna be some crow-eating on the noon news?

  9. bgb41 says:

    Clark County Climate Report as of 9am. Crawford was 41 this morning and Brush Prairie was 42. These temps are at record cold levels for late July most locations.

  10. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Pick up a bottle of Siberian Vodka and watch the ducks swim around on their new pond Mark (you may want to get in the pond as well). No drinking and riding around on your bike with the cool outfit on though! Hahaah!

  11. Garron says:

    Quite the chilly start to a warm weekend!!! Lower 40’s as I woke up to shut the windows this morning.

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KHIO&table=1&banner=off

    • Punxsutawney (aka HIOPHIL) at work by Sunset High elev ~280' says:

      And yet not a record low for Hillsboro. At least if you go back to 1933 when it was 40. A surprising number of lows in the 30’s in July back in the 30’s.

      If the low of 43 stands at KHIO it will tie the official NWS record of 43 in 1965.

  12. 45.9 degrees right now! Pretty dang chilly!

  13. Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

    New Podcast posted
    [audio src="http://nwweatherpodcast.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/podcast-number-11-final.mp3" /]

  14. Enjoy your vacation, Mark!

  15. Karl Bonner says:

    As a rule of thumb, I like to take my main vacation during September. Lodging is a bit cheaper, tourist destinations are less crowded, and the temperatures are more reasonable, with even the hotter days offset by cool nights. The 2-3 week period after Labor Day is, nowadays, summer’s best secret.

    That being said, I love a weekend retreat to the coast to cool off in the middle of the summer, and it’s always fun to visit Gold Beach or Brookings or parts of northern California during December or January when we’re in a butt-ugly fogversion pattern.

    • That’s typically when we vacation as well – after kids are back in school (we don’t have any). The other time we usually go somewhere is sometime between spring break and school’s out – and we sometimes get lucky with the weather depending on where we go. Then during summer it’s a week off or a long weekend staycation or head to the coast. 🙂 Back when my economy was better I’d jet back home to Florida in the winter.

    • Karl Bonner says:

      I’ve also flirted with the idea of vacation in October before. Closer to home, it is a bit of a gamble: you run the risk of running into dark/rainy weather, or being too early for peak foliage, or sometimes both. I’m not sure how lucky other parts of the country are for October weather, but it’s probably better most spots.

      If you look at the Wunderground records for Redding, California during the Dec-Feb time period each year, you’ll discover that rarely a winter doth pass without at least one nice bout of sunny, 60+ temps. There are a lot of winters with multiple sunny-and-warm events, and occasionally it can even get into the 70s. I’ve never been to Shasta Lake during the wintertime, but I imagine it would be only slightly cooler than Redding in this kind of pattern, maybe 3-5 degrees. And the Lake probably has a better chance of staying clear of any fogversions, which according to the weather records, do occasionally manage to submerge Redding. Gold Beach and Brookings are fun, but the landscape around Redding looks a lot “warmer” than any place on the coast. Lake Shasta is also far enough south for the higher winter sun angle to be discernible. And it’s very accessible from my former Eugene – only about a five-hour drive.

      Actually, Memorial Day weekend can be a good time to vacation *if* you pick destinations that aren’t quite so oriented toward families with kids. Not too hot and still lush and flowery most years.

    • Garron says:

      I love living here, so close to the mountains, coast, desert, ect…But, I do have to get my hot weather fetish in and escape the cooler wet regime. So, twice a year I escape to Las Wages (Vegas), usually in the mid spring, and late summer. As a bonus, as long as l go every 6 months, my hotel and meals are free, and I can fly there and rent a rental car for less than a 1 or 2 day stay at the Oregon coast.

  16. bgb41 says:

    00Z GFS @ KTTD – http://i53.tinypic.com/e637gy.jpg

    A nice dry run with near normal temps.

  17. bgb41 says:

    7/21/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:90 at ALKALI FLAT(2495 ft) & BULLY CREEK RESE(2500 ft) & LAKE OWYHEE AND O(2400 ft)
    Low: 64 at Celilo, East of(225 ft) & John Day River B(305 ft) & Rufus 2E(279 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:44 at Timberline Lodge(6001 ft)
    Low: 30 at DESCHUTES PORTAB (5100 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 46 degrees
    FOSTER FLAT (81/35 ) (5000 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.50″ at BLAZED ALDER(3650ft)
    0.49″ at MEARES Cape Mear(1421ft)
    0.41″ at CEDAR(2220ft)

  18. Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

    Thanks for the update Mark, Residents in the NW deserve the fantastic weather coming for this weekend.

  19. Austin (Cornelius) says:

    2nd the best!!!!

  20. roman236 says:

    Finally.

  21. Roman~Snow-Zone says:

    Sweet thanks Mark. Have a great vacation!

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