It’s Turning Into a Cool Summer

Quick check-in while on vacation.  A 3rd totally gray morning to wake up to today…might as well had a week off in October.

Check out the 8-14 day outlook from NCEP:

It’s more of the same, in fact the hot upper-level ridge over the middle/eastern part of the USA is locked into place and strengthens this weekend and next week.  We’ll be hearing about the severe heat wave back there over the next week I’m sure.  Hopefully not a repeat of all those 1995 deaths in Chicago though.

Hot ridge to the east means the cool trough over the West is also locked into place.  As one trough slides out and another one slides into place, the weather improves a bit (like this past weekend), but that only brings our temperatures up to average.   80-81 for a high is the average from now through mid August…the hottest time of the year here in Portland.

It IS really nice for working outside the past few days, but I’m ready to see some sun again!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

232 Responses to It’s Turning Into a Cool Summer

  1. bgb41 says:

    00Z GFS teasing us again with near 100 degree heat at the end of the month. Just like it did with the snow/cold this winter that never came.

  2. Marc (NE Vancouver) says:

    I am enjoying our weather so far this summer. It sure beats 90 degrees. I would like some more sunshine but I am not against low 70’s for highs and mid 50’s for lows. It has been very pleasant and easy on my bank account. I never thought I could say that for summer.

  3. Hal in Aims says:

    Will be heading back over to the Snake in about 3 weeks. Was there for 2 weeks the latter part of June. After we got old, we started doing that a couple of times every summer just in case we had a summer like this one at home…..we could still have some summer. Wood stove fires are great in the winter…….but when one needs a fire in July…time to to go east…………

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      It really has been pushing the envelope lately, even for a guy who likes the cool.

  4. bgb41 says:

    8pm obs out of Iowa

    7 stations reporting dewpoints in the mid 80s this hour.

  5. bgb41 says:

    Hells Canyon directly below hat point lookout in the Wallowas….You have the Pittsburg Landing weather station along the lower snake river where it was 103 yesterday there and its 100 there right now. Wish I was over there enjoying the sun.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Not sure how you plan on “enjoying the sun” when it’s 100+ degrees out but whatever floats your boat.

      I’m enjoying a nice 70-degree sunbreak here right now.

    • bgb41 says:

      Some people enjoy dry heat. Other people like it cool and dreary in mid-summer like you.

    • Boydo3 N. Albany 500' says:

      You mean like, enjoying a weekend of drizzle and nearly an inch of rain in mid July isn’t fun? C’mon man!

  6. Josh (Gresham) says:

    Rain just started here, 71.4

  7. laurie(sylvan) says:

    I think I’m developing “weather tourette’s.” I’ve been spontaneously swearing at the sky when I walk outside.

    I HATE THIS SUMMER! What did we do to deserve two of them in a row?

    • bgb41 says:

      Last summer (July/August) 2010 wasn’t bad at all) see link below….

      For those two months we had:
      28 days over 80
      11 days over 90
      0.82″ of rain in 60 days.

      Downtown Portland had 0.82″ yesterday alone.

    • Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

      I conside that bad, but in the opposite way that you do Laurie. 11 days over 90 is 11 days too many in my opinion.

    • ken says:

      LOL. Me too. It coincides with Portland traffic and California/WA drivers. Need meds 🙂

    • laurie(sylvan) says:

      Well Ken, I’m a California driver, but a good one, I swear. 🙂 Washington — yeah, I’m right there with you… they hog the fast lane going too slow.

      (I’ve lived in Portland since 1987, so I think my driving has mellowed in middle age, anyway).

    • ken says:

      I too am from California(Fremont) but stand by my comment. I am more referring to the ones here visiting that don’t realize that you cant go 70 through terwilliger curves at 430 in the afternoon yet still want to ride tail and tap brakes every 3 seconds. 🙂

  8. Kyle From Silverton says:

    I am glad the models are not as insane as when they first came out or they would be showing us having lift indexes of -4 to -6 making Rob jaw drop.

  9. bgb41 says:

    4pm observations in Iowa

    Knoxville Iowa—100 degrees with a dewpoint of 84


    • I’d take the rain any day over that! You can be out all day in our July rain, but I wouldn’t want to be outside for a second in that crap!

    • EA_TTD says:

      That’s an automated station not in NWS control so I’d take those ob’s with a grain of salt (and a LARGE glass of water). It’s hot and humid back there though…MSP has a 3:00 CT heat index of 111! Glad I’m heading there NEXT Monday!

    • bgb41 says:

      There are several stations on that report with dewpoints above 80. If that station is near water, the heat index could easily be in the 120’s

    • Punxsutawney (aka HIOPHIL) at work by Sunset High elev ~280' says:

      Mineapolis had a dp of 81 sometime in the early morning hours Sunday and had an heat index above 100. That’s crazy when the Sun hasn’t risen yet.

      A heat index of 130 is just plain dangerous. Your body can’t in any way cool itself naturally as persperation won’t evaporate.

    • Sean Mott (Lebanon, IN) says:

      We had a NWS recorded Heat Index of 119 here last monday. Could come really close to breaking 120 this week, currently IMBY it’s 94 and a DP of 78 (not even seeing the core of the heat yet, plus have had some CB clouds around today).. Feels really nasty outside, feels like someone is sitting on your chest when you breath.

      Remember with that observation from Iowa, the corn fields here do have a big impact on raising dewpoints to these levels. So, it
      could” be correct.

    • bgb41 says:

      Yeah exactly, Many people who are in doubt of the high heat indexes need to remember that is the plains and lots of shallow lakes and standing water steaming up away from the bigger cities with concrete add lots of extra local humidity in rural farmed areas. Its not like the northwest where all our water is channels into rivers and streams.

  10. Just returned from a hike up to June Lake and Chocolate Falls. I’m glad I started somewhat early as the clouds quickly moved in. The mountain was fully visible at 10:30 AM but by 12:30 it was clouded over.

  11. Austin (Cornelius) says:

    So what’s the chance of an albino donkey tonight?
    Looking fwd to seeing one!

  12. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    A narrow line/squall of fairly heavy looking rainfall just the west. But its moving from south, so its not making much inland progression… And the lightning map is still down so none of us have a clue if anything is currently producing lightning 😦

  13. bgb41 says:

    Boise Idaho OBS

    While we got record rainfall and mid 60s yesterday, Boise reached its first 100 degree day of the summer.

    • umpire says:

      Brian –

      I grew up in Boise, and never thought I’d say that I’d like to go over during the summer months – where it’s generally 90+ for a good 60-80 days during the summer. But this summer, if my Mom wasn’t coming over in a few weeks, I’d be driving over just to get a bit of a hot weather fix.

    • bgb41 says:

      If I was to pick a place to retire someday, I would possibly pick the treasure valley.

  14. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Hahaah! Rod Hill reports he hasn’t a clue what the weather will do this afternoon! Suggests we watch the radar, (use the GOLU model).

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Call us the Fox 12 Wheenie Model

      The people who ‘watch the radar’ for stray albino donkeys! The best model out there 🙂

  15. thejory (Sandy) says:

    Could anyone tell me how the temps in Alaska are? I’d think since they are in the middle of their 3 month long day, temps in the 30’s and 40’s are kind of low.

    So I guess my question is, is Alaska suffering through the same kind of cool weather as we are?

  16. A strange and rare foggy July morning, but the sun is out now. Dropped into the 40s last night for the first time since the 9th. That felt good after many mornings in the mid and upper 50s lately.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Right Tyler, low in Scappoose was 48.2, didn’t see any fog at my place.

  17. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Here we go again…

    National Weather Service Portland or
    312 am PDT Monday Jul 18 2011

    Synopsis…a brief break in the weather this morning will give way
    to more showers and thunderstorms tonight and Tuesday…as an upper level low off northern California moves northeast across Oregon. There is a possibility of another round of locally heavy rain developing overnight as the upper low moves onshore…the best chance of this will be south of the Portland metropolitan area. The heavy rainfall was largely due to an upper level low off the Oregon coast…rotating disturbances northward across western Oregon via a 60-80 knots jet. The upper low has since drifted a bit further south and is now offshore from Crescent City. This system continues to wrap very deep moisture around itself…with 150-200 percent of normal precipitable water values rounding the base of the upper low off northern California. This moisture then wraps back northward into western Oregon and was the source of the copious rainfall Sunday. A repeat performance is possible tonight and Tuesday morning as the upper low moves onshore.
    In the meantime…much of the district remains slightly north of the dynamic support provided by the upper low. Some sunshine is possible especially during the first half of the day and northwest of Salem after any morning fog Burns off. 00z/06z NAM bufr soundings show some surface-based instability developing with the heating of the day…with the best instability further south and east in our district. These soundings suggest lifted indices of -3 degree c near keug with a good 600-800 j/kg of cape this afternoon. Given some lift due to diffluence aloft and strengthening low-middle level
    frontogenesis…believe chances are pretty good for some
    thunderstorms in the south Willamette Valley and Cascades this
    afternoon. Going into tonight the 00z/06z NAM runs show some very heavy precipitation developing over Linn and Lane counties. While the 1-2 inches of model quantitative precipitation forecast may be somewhat contaminated by convective feedback…remember the NAM handled the precipitation Sunday very well. With deep moisture and strong frontogenesis out ahead of this upper low…someone will likely get pelted with heavy rain upwards of an inch or more tonight and early Tuesday. The best chance for this will be south of Salem and east of Interstate 5. Broad-brushed the quantitative precipitation forecast somewhat as the exact location of the heavier rain is still
    somewhat uncertain. With the deep moisture and good dynamics…some Urban and Small Stream flood issues may become possible if the NAM is correct.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      I really like it when weather models get enthusiastic (NWS this AM)

      .the GFS and European model (ecmwf) are enthusiastic about
      building at least a Flat Ridge back into the Pacific northwest by
      next weekend. This may allow drier weather and a chance for temperatures to feel more like one would expect for middle to late July. Tw/weagle

  18. Garron @ work says:

    All I can say is WOW!!!! I knew when we planned our camping trip based on last week’s forecast’s for this weekend, “80 degrees and sunny, then 90 for Monday!!!” We were screwed, but the down pours yesterday just topped it off!!! We “WERE” up at Tollgate campground on MT. Hood, and cut it short when it looked like the camp was going to flood out around noon yesterday. That stream looked like a flasjh flood, and EVERYTHING was wet even our dry bags got moistened by thumidity!!! Fun trip, really awesome, the kids probabaly will never want to go camping again, especiaslly when the forecasts call for a “SUNNY” weekend…

  19. Austin-Felida says:

    Well just thought i tell everyone i got some thick fog over here can anyone say ya to relative humidity lol anyways good rain to day has to put us close to average rain fall for the month

  20. Josh (Gresham) says:

    I really think we have a good shot at some nice storm cells tomorrow night if we do hit 80, and get that push of moisture around 6pm

  21. bgb41 says:

    Experience a rare mid-July fog and 56 degrees right now. Can’t remember ever getting evening fog this time of year.

    • Karl Bonner says:

      It’s too bad The Dalles didn’t get nailed with an inch worth of widespread downpours. It would be fun to see the drought season get interrupted in the middle of summer. And it would be equally exciting to get dewpoints in the 60s (though yesterday we did get them into the upper 50s).

  22. Kyle From Silverton says:

    Whos ready for a 1983 summer! 😮

  23. bgb41 says:

    7/17/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:96 at LAKE OWYHEE AND O(2400 ft)
    Low: 63 at Blalock(280 ft) & Rufus(185 ft)

    High:45 at Timberline Lodge(7001 ft)
    Low: 36 at Lakeview, Lake C (4734 ft ) & CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 47 degrees
    HEREFORD (86/39 ) (3599 ft )
    CROW FLAT (84/37) (5130 ft)
    Rome (90/43) (4049 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.50″ at SOUTH FORK BULL(2630ft)
    1.43″ at DW4118 Sandy(1250ft)
    1.10″ at NORTH FORK(3120ft)
    1.01″ at CW2654 Corbett(1050ft)
    0.92″ at WANDERER’S PEAK(4350ft)
    0.92″ at CW9654 Canby(158ft)
    0.92″ at DW1439 Eugene(810ft)

  24. Sweet Home, OR today:
    High 62°
    Low 56°
    Rain since midnight: 0.65″
    Sat & Sun rainfall: 1.08″
    July todate: 1.34″

    • bgmike says:

      In Battle Ground today:
      High 66°
      Low 57°
      Rain since midnight:0.56″
      Sat & Sun rainfall :0.68″
      July to date : 0.92

  25. pappoose in scappoose says:

    The saga continues.

    National Weather Service Portland or
    840 PM PDT sun Jul 17 2011

    One piece of energy is poised to lift north from the base of the
    offshore trough and along the coast later tonight and early Monday
    for a few showers again. Another piece of energy is dropping south
    into the base of the upper trough. The whole upper trough will then
    lift out and move onshore into southwest Oregon late Monday and
    Monday night…not moving east of the Cascades until later Tuesday. As this feature moves through…look for more showers and possible thunderstorms late Monday into Tuesday…with the highest probability of precipitation and
    quantitative precipitation forecast in our southern zones and in the Oregon Cascades. This could again be another decent soaker for those zones.

  26. Actually a pretty nice sunset right now and things have cleared out nicely. We’ll see how long that lasts…

  27. bgb41 says:

    18Z GFS @ KTTD… Five days in the 90’s?? Wish I could believe this

  28. Btw, I was just looking at my temps for July and noticed that my warmest high so far this month was 84.9 on the 6th, followed by the coldest high of 63.5 the next day. It would be kind of cool to see that statistic remain in place.

    0.49″ here today with a high of 65.3

    • Punxsutawney aka HIOPHIL says:

      62.3 was my high so far today. That’s at 12:01am. Now that would not be that unusual in mid winter, but its really “Special” at this time of year with us still close to maximum daylight. Still the sun is trying to make a valiant effort to get Hillsboro warmer, even this late in the day. Temps the warmest it’s been since 1am or so at 61.3. But I’m afraid time is about out for solar warming.

      Looks like KHIO beat it’s daily rainfall record by .01″ today. The airport was a bit drier than me today. Also, that’s three days in a row with measurable precip at the Hillsboro airport. I’m guessing that’s very rare for July. The airport is also about 3 degrees warmer than me today so I think there will be no record low-high.

      .58″ today here, and 1.18″ for the month at my station.

  29. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Hahaah! The only thing that has been consistent with the forecast is its lack of consistency!

  30. Kyle From Silverton says:

    The rain started light about 1 am and then turned steady around 9 and heavy at 10 for about an hour.

    I even heard it with the windows shut which is normally impossible unless the rain is heavy since our house is overly insulated.

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