Nice Weekend, Then Cool Week Ahead

It was a forecast bust north of Salem today since the clouds lingered far longer than expected.  Even some light drizzle in spots eastside, although that sure wasn’t a surprise.

We have real quiet weather on tap for at least the next 5 days with a thinning of the marine layer tomorrow through Sunday.  That means far more sunshine all three days; Saturday and Sunday look sunniest and warmest.  Then an increase in onshore flow Monday and Tuesday as an upper-level trough approaches.

The big story is still the unseasonable cold trough forecast to sit over the West Coast from next Wednesday until further notice.  It is unusual to see this in mid-late July, and even more unusual that it’ll sit overhead for more than a day or two.  Models don’t show much rainfall, but I have a feeling we’ll see them “moisten up” the next few runs.  Expect at least SOME showers later next week.  As a result, I see no chance for temps above 80 degrees for at least the next 8-9 days!  The average high temperature in Portland reaches 80 next Friday and stays at/above that level through mid-August. 

I will be off work now until the 18th on vacation…nice timing to enjoy the “summer” weather next week eh?  If it gets too bad I’m heading east of the mountains!  It should be warmer over there at least. 

So probably no more posts over the next week.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

199 Responses to Nice Weekend, Then Cool Week Ahead

  1. Ken says:

    Hello and good morning.

  2. pappoose in scappoose says:

    New post.

  3. PaulB/Eugene says:

    6 days above 80F at PDX in 2011 so far….looks to stay at that number through July 24.

    In summer 1954, after June 30 there were only 5 (five) days above 80F, 2 in July, 1 in August, 2 in September.

    At this time (July 14) in 1954, we had 6 days above 80F so far…the same as 2011.

    Who knows…could still have a mega heat wave end of July with high of 112 in PDX…doubt it though

    • Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

      Holy smokes! I would kill for a summer like that.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Great weather for duck pond construction.

    • Jbpdx says:

      1954. Wasn’t that the year they were doing all those hydrogen bomb blasts in the open atmosphere in the Pacific Ocean? Hmmmmmm

  4. Boydo3 N. Albany 500' says:

    McKenzie Pass opens this Friday. The longest it has ever been closed. 263 days.

  5. AlohaWeather says:

    I saw my first visibly rotating thunderstorm 2 days ago in central Poland. A cold front came in from the west and a warm one from the east, and colided over head. Saw no funnel but it was still amazing. The cold front won and it pushed east. Central Poland has a thunder stom every other day, This morning I woke up to the loudest thunder and the heaviest rain I have ever seen.

  6. bgb41 says:

    7/13/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:86 at Ontario Municipa(2188 ft)
    Low: 63 at BULLY CREEK RESE(2500 ft) & Weatherby Rest A(2390 ft)

    High:43 at Timberline Lodge(6001 ft) & Mount Hood Meado(6601 ft)
    Low: 33 at Timberline Lodge (7001 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 37 degrees
    CABIN LAKE (71/34 ) (4560 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.48″ at WH6KO St Helens(79ft)
    0.38″ at DW4535 Cannon Be(23ft)
    0.35″ at CW4176 Aloha(210ft)

  7. bgb41 says:

    00Z NAM currently punching us right in the face with a front and steady rain Saturday morning with a high of 68. So much for mid 70’s.

  8. I only managed 67 up here in Battle Ground after a low of 54. That’s a pretty low diurnal range as well for the middle of summer.

    Holding steady at 61 now with some clearing.

  9. Jbpdx says:

    Summer 2011 is quickly turning into a sad joke. Poured like fall in Aloha. Creek outside is running like a mountain stream. 61 DEGREES at 6pm. Are you kidding me?

  10. Punxsutawney aka HIOPHIL says:

    Holly Raindrops Batman!

    It was coming down in buckets by Fox Studios and in Beaverton about 15 minutes ago. Some of the heaviest rain I’ve seen in a while. Cars were slowing down to about 10-15mph.

    • bgb41 says:

      So I got .47 last evening and now its sunny here at BG Lake while Beaverton is getting pounded. What a difference a day makes.

    • Cherie in Vernonia says:

      HIO….same here. I got video & pics but this new phone is not co operating to let me post them to FB….not sure how here….can only send as text 😦

    • Punxsutawney aka HIOPHIL says:

      I got .34″ of rain here today. One would think I was in Battleground or something. 😉

      I bet some places in Beaverton got that much in 15 minutes the way it was coming down.

      That ties my station record for the largest daily rainfall in July. July 12th 2006 having the same amount. Today was probably more though as the raingauge ran hotter back then.

      July 12th 2006 high 68.7, today 70.2.

      And Brian may like this; 9 days later in 2006, a high of 106.7!

    • Punxsutawney aka HIOPHIL says:


      I had the camera in the trunk, but by the time I realized how hard it was raining, I wasn’t much interested in stopping and getting out. Wasn’t expecting that or I would have been better prepared.

    • Vernonia school construction cam here:

      Looks like a decent rain shower on the 5:26pm image (July 13).

  11. vernonia1 says:

    I do not think i have EVER seen it rain this HARD! Not even showing on radar. Streets are flooded!! Wish I had a camera!!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Pics or it didn’t happen. Hahaah!

    • Cherie in Vernonia says:

      got video and pics but no data pkg…..can only send as text message & do not know how to do that here ???

  12. bgb41 says:

    18Z GFS @ Troutdale – Green Tomatoes anyone??

  13. EA_TTD says:

    Prozac anyone….???


    • Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

      Awesome! What about those of us in NW Oregon and SW Washington? I imagine that we can expect a similar overall pattern and a lack of hot, yucky weather.

      I don’t see how anybody could complain about temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Sure, we could have a little more sunshine, but that usually means higher temperatures this time of year.

    • Dave in Albany says:

      Sorry its all my fault. I reseeded my lawn and needed this weather to grow it strong before the summer sun blasts it away. I was told June was too late to seed it but as it turns out, it was just right.

    • Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

      Never mind… I realize now that this is from portland’s AFD and that they are talking about the location of the troughs, not the location of the weather forecast.

    • Jbpdx says:

      I’m complaining. 2011 Oregon wine crop? Doubt it.

    • Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

      Drink vintage. Haha.

  14. bgb41 says:

    Ended up with 0.47″ of rain yesterday from midnight-to-midnight here at BG Lake… Just 0.02″ has fallen so far today.

  15. pappoose in scappoose says:

    I like the cool weather but can do without the rain. I’m waiting patiently for my grass to die so the mowing can be over with. Is this the summer of the grass that never dies?

    National Weather Service Portland or
    445 am PDT Wednesday Jul 13 2011

    If models remain consistent with this feature there is potential for
    0.25 to 0.5 inch rainfall accumulations along the coast and coastal
    range with the front passage Friday night into Saturday morning.
    GFS forecasts precipitable water values greater than an inch…with
    northwest Oregon under the right back quadrant of a 70kt 250mb jet. Although this jet is fairly weak…it may provide enough lift to tap
    into some of the available moisture. Th
    Long term…an upper level trough will reside across the NE
    Pacific…just offshore the Oregon coast…Saturday through Monday. Still think more seasonal temperatures can be expected Sunday and Monday as the upper ridge over the central Continental U.S. Retrogrades to the west. However disturbances embedded within the trough may maintain cloudy skies and limit the warming. The trough will push inland Tuesday and Wednesday. Th

  16. bgb41 says:

    7/12/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:93 at Weatherby Rest A(2390 ft)
    Low: 66 at Ontario Municipa(2188 ft)

    High:45 at Timberline Lodge(6001 ft)
    Low: 33 at DESCHUTES PORTAB (5100 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 39 degrees
    Rome (90/51 ) (4049 ft )
    SPARTA BUTTE (87/48) (4278 ft)
    MINAM LODGE-PORT (83/44) (3575 ft)
    FOSTER FLAT (82/43) (5000 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.53″ at N7HAE Knappa(105ft)
    0.52″ at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160ft)
    0.52″ at MEARES Cape Mear(1421ft)

  17. .13″ rain so far this evening with much more on the way per latest GFS run over next 3 days, may see upwards of 1″ or more. Seems that most Of the rain will be up here in WA.

  18. Jbpdx says:

    Pollution from China drifting east
    Associated Press
    MOUNT TAMALPAIS STATE PARK, Calif. — On a mountaintop overlooking the Pacific Ocean, Steven Cliff collects evidence of an industrial revolution taking place thousands of miles away.
    The tiny, airborne particles Cliff gathers at an air monitoring station just north of San Francisco drifted over the ocean from coal-fired power plants, smelters, dust storms and diesel trucks in China and other Asian countries.
    Researchers say the environmental impact of China’s breakneck economic growth is being felt well beyond its borders. They worry that as China consumes more fossil fuels to feed its energy-hungry economy, the U.S. could see a sharp increase in trans-Pacific pollution that could affect human health, worsen air quality and alter climate patterns.
    “We’re going to see increased particulate pollution from the expansion of China for the foreseeable future,” said Cliff, a research engineer at the University of California-Davis.
    He has monitoring stations on Mount Tamalpais, Donner Summit near Lake Tahoe, and Mount Lassen in far northern California. Those sites see little pollution from local sources, and the composition of the dust particles matches that of the Gobi Desert and other Asian sites, Cliff said.
    About a third of the Asian pollution is dust, which is increasing drought and deforestation, Cliff said. The rest is composed of sulfur, soot and trace metals from the burning of coal, diesel and other fossil fuels.
    Cliff is studying whether transported particulate matter could affect climate by trapping heat, reflecting light or changing rainfall patterns.
    Most air pollution in U.S. cities is generated locally, but that could change if citizens in China, India and other developing nations adopt American-style consumption patterns, researchers say.
    “If they started driving cars and using electricity at the rate in the developed world, the amount of pollution they generate will increase many, many times,” said Tony Van Curen, a UC-Davis researcher who works with Cliff.
    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency estimates that on some days nearly 25 percent of the particulate matter in the skies above Los Angeles are from China. Some experts predict China may one day account for a third of all California’s air pollution.
    Dan Jaffe, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Washington, said he has detected ozone, carbon monoxide, mercury and particulate matter from Asia at monitoring sites on Mount Bachelor in Oregon and Cheeka Peak in Washington state.
    “There is some amount of the pollution in the air we breathe coming from halfway around the world,” Jaffe said. “There ultimately is no ‘away.’ There is no place where you can put away your pollution anymore.”
    China’s environmental problems are severe and getting worse. Nearly 30 years of relentless industrial expansion has fouled the country’s water, land and sky.
    The World Bank estimates that 16 of the world’s 20 most polluted cities are in China.
    Coal-fired power plants supply two-thirds of China’s energy and are its biggest source of air pollution. Already the world’s largest producer and consumer of coal, China on average builds a new coal-fired power plant every week.
    Meanwhile, car ownership is soaring as the country’s economy grows about 10 percent a year, contributing carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases linked to global warming.
    Barbara Finamore, who heads the Natural Resources Defense Council’s China Clean Energy program, which is helping the country boost its energy efficiency, said, 
    “China’s staggering economic growth is an environmental time bomb that, unless defused, threatens to convulse the entire planet regardless of progress in all other nations.”
    “When you look at China’s population growth and industrial growth, it’s hard to imagine how air quality could improve in the near future,” said Ruby Leung, a researcher at the Energy Department’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in Richland, Wash., which collaborates with Chinese government scientists on atmospheric research.

    • gidrons says:

      Good thing we sent all our jobs over there

    • Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

      That report about China’s increased pollution doesn’t surprise me any. When they had the olympic games over there a few years ago they had to limit factory use because many athletes refused to participate unless they did something about the smog levels.

    • bgb41 says:

      The one thing that is bad for us is the fact that there will be more dust particles etc which will form more water vapor. This will inevitably make more cloud cover in our area for our long term climate.

    • Jbpdx says:


  19. bgb41 says:

    Here is the Clark County 24 hour rainfall report. Its clear to see in the red boxed area that a very heavy 15 minute squall formed along SR503/SR500 intersection and then lifted into Battle Ground and points east. I got 0.41″ today at my house which so far is more than anyone else today. 0.27″ of that fell in 15 minutes this evening.

  20. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Hahaah! Rod Hill can still see the “big picture” changing next week!

    • Longview - 400 ft says:

      Thank you for posting this. I am bummed out that we will not get our hot weather as predicted as that “high” decided not to come west but move east.


    • k5mitch says:

      Thank goodness…

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      HOLD THAT TRAIN!!! Rod Hill is coming on board with the cooler forecast for next week.

  21. bgb41 says:

    ‎0.27″ of rain here in 15 minutes tonight (8:00 to 8:15pm)
    Here is my uploaded rainfall data.

    • bgb41 says:

      0.41″ for the day so far.

    • Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

      I’m jealous. We got a decent amount of rain overnight, but nothing really since then. I was hoping to soak the lawn and all my plants.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Latest from the NWS.

      National Weather Service Portland or
      842 PM PDT Tuesday Jul 12 2011

      Laps and local WRF data picking up on that area of instability in
      Clark County with lifted indices near -2c and cape in the vc of 600 j/kg giving some fairly heavy rain.Shear profile look relatively nice but radar velocities have not confirmed much if any rotation in those cells. Local WRF quickly backs off on the instability there in the next hour or two. Model soundings cap convection at 15kft…which makes its way above the freezing level…though no lightning reported yet from these cells. Meanwhile along the north coast a short wave will roll
      around the upper low and locally enhance showers this evening. Instability will increase Wednesday as the cooler air aloft moves over the region. Models suggest a slight chance of thunderstorms are possible over the South Washington/north Oregon Cascades Wednesday afternoon/evening. Impacts from thunderstorms should be minimal as southwest flow should quickly usher them out of the Portland forecast area.

    • bgmike says:

      I did not get hit that hard I only got .22 inches of rain from the whole day.

    • bgb41 says:

      bgmike.. I gather you are down in the Vernerborg area? I believe the heavy stuff was on a line from 119th & SR-503 NE to East Battle Ground. I bet you may have been just east of the line of heaviest stuff.

    • bgmike says:

      I live about 1 mile east of SR-503 just off 199th, I got rain but it was moderate not heavy from 8pm to 9 I got .10 inches.

  22. bgb41 says:

    VERY HEAVY downpours in clark county right now. My gutters are overflowing and there is minor street flooding here east of Battle Ground. Check out this radar image.

  23. Kyle From Silverton says:

    Todays curse was not as bad as I thought. AT LEAST we had the partly sunny sun and the dew points are not 60+

  24. POURING rain here…fat drops too!

  25. bgmike says:

    Like 10 minutes ago i had really loud and big rain drops for 1 minute.

  26. Rocky Mountain National Park:

    Sunrise, Trail Ridge Road, moose and anti crepuscular rays.

  27. Jbpdx says:

    You know what they say about Portland weather… Just wait a few days, it’ll get worse.

  28. Kyle From Silverton says:

    *Insert PNW weather curse here* Actually I am convinced HARRP is controlling or should I say *steering* our weather patterns and this is a side effect which I am not sure if it’s intentional or not as they seem hell bent on sending heatwaves up the Midwest and as the crow flies.

  29. gidrons says:

    After checking the GFS and Euro, I think I’ll give up on the corn, tear it out, and plant some spinach and peas.

    • Boydo3 N. Albany 500' says:

      Actually if the GFS verifies and the low backs off we could see some significant warming early next week. But yeah, the euro is sticking it to us. My shitakes are doing well however.

    • Boydo3 N. Albany 500' says:

      Funny, in a morbid sort of way, how the talking heads are raving about the heat in the midwest and south but no mention of the northern tier and the cool weather we are having. Not sensational enough, just boring.

    • Kyle From Silverton says:

      If it’s related to Global Warming you will hear about it.

      Even in the tiniest way.

  30. Garron says:

    Well, no surprise I suppose, but the heat for next weekend and beyond appears to be slip sliding away…. Might at least get some good convection ahead of the ULL next weekend though.

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