As mentioned in the last post, I think it’s a bit of a misnomer that the weather is often not very good on July 4th. But check this out. If you chart the average rainfall for any one day throughout the year, notice the lowest is the last week of July and first week of August, no surprise there. It’s the middle of the driest two months of the year here. However check out that little “uptick” in early July. It’s the 4th of July! Our best chance for getting .01″ rain on any one day in the month of July is on that day; about a 24% chance. Strange, but true. The next time it climbs up to that level is the 3rd week of August.
This year will be different; signs point to a totally sunny and quite warm 4th of July…perfect for watching the fireworks. If it’s cooler than 80, it’ll only be in the 60s at fireworks time…you need a jacket or blanket for that. Shouldn’t need that this year.
The upper level westerly flow over us now shifts to the north a good chunk of next week, allowing surface high pressure to shift farther north to off our coastline as well. This is a typical July pattern that leads to a minimum of morning cloudiness, but enough onshore flow to keep us from really heating up. At this point it appears that we won’t go beyond the lower 80s, although the ECMWF has higher heights Monday-Wednesday. That could put us farther into the 80s.
The big picture is this: Nice and mild conditions for the first week of July. No real heat, rain, or thunderstorms west of the Cascades. Plus plenty of sunshine…enjoy!
We have a fresh podcast for you (Podcast #9) for this weekend. This week, Brian, Steph and I give your June weather recap, answer kids’ questions and give you your beautiful 4th of July Forecast! Plus, find out about Mark’s frisky ducks and Brian’s ride-along with Beaverton. It’s here: http://nwweatherpodcast.wordpress.com/
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen