Weekend Update: Nice, but not Hot

I posted this image last night on our Facebook page (fox12weather), plus showed it on-air.  It always surprises me how nice MOST of our 4th of Julys have been the past 8-10 years.  In fact 1/2 of the past 8 holidays we’ve seen high temps at or above 80 degrees. 

This weekend sure won’t be hot;  I heard a radio DJ say that it would “be a hot weekend” just yesterday and almost burst a blood vessel while driving.  That’s one of the reasons you shouldn’t rely on a 5 second radio forecast for your weather info.  Of course if it comes from a meteorologist you’re fine.

Over the past 5-6 days we’ve seen a steady decline in forecast upper-level heights this upcoming weekend.  As of last Friday-Saturday, models were showing a huge and hot upper-level ridge over us.  As of tonight, it appears to be just flat and weak ridging overhead tomorrow/Saturday and again on Monday.  In between, an upper-level disturbance passes overhead, basically “denting” the ridge, on Sunday.  So quite a marine push gives us solid morning clouds at the Coast and Western Valleys Sunday.  I lowered the forecast high to 73 for Sunday in anticipation of cloud cover lingering much of the day.  There may be low clouds again briefly Monday morning (the 4th).

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

23 Responses to Weekend Update: Nice, but not Hot

  1. http://classic.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KORPORTL110

    Averages\Extremes for the month of June 2011

    Average temperature = 61.1°F
    Average humidity = 64%
    Average dewpoint = 47.4°F
    Average barometer = 30.021 in.
    Average windspeed = 2.5 mph
    Average gustspeed = 3.6 mph
    Average direction = 313° ( NW)
    Rainfall for month = 0.850 in.
    Rainfall for year = 25.819 in. (Highest record rainfall for present year at this time)
    Maximum rain per minute = 0.081 in on day 29 at time 03:30
    Maximum temperature = 86.1°F on day 04 at time 16:41
    Minimum temperature = 43.3°F on day 03 at time 05:26 (Record low temperature for month of June)
    Maximum humidity = 100% on day 28 at time 11:50
    Minimum humidity = 19% on day 04 at time 17:12 (Record low humidity for month of June)
    Maximum dewpoint = 63.1°F on day 28 at time 07:42
    Minimum dewpoint = 23.7°F on day 16 at time 13:03
    Maximum pressure = 30.31 in. on day 15 at time 12:24
    Minimum pressure = 29.66 in. on day 28 at time 09:07
    Maximum windspeed = 11.5 mph from 248°(WSW) on day 02 at time 12:20
    Maximum gust speed = 20.7 mph from 203°(SSW) on day 06 at time 17:25
    Maximum heat index = 82.9°F on day 04 at time 16:40

    Avg daily max temp :70.0°F
    Avg daily min temp :52.6°F
    Total windrun = 1729.9miles

    Record low wind chill temperature = 39.7 on day 16
    Record daily rain = .45” on day 1
    Record rain in 1 hour = 0.12” on day 1 at time 01:37
    Warmest day (6am to 6pm) = 85.3 on day 04
    Coldest night (6pm to 6am) = 55.8 on day 25
    Coldest day (6am to 6pm) = 56.1 on day 18
    Warmest night (6pm to 6am) = 71.2 on day 05

    Daily rain totals
    00.45 in. on day 1
    00.04 in. on day 12
    00.04 in. on day 13
    00.08 in. on day 15
    00.16 in. on day 18
    00.08 in. on day 28

    *Records started October 2008*

  2. June 2011 at Battle Ground

    Highest High: 86.2, 4th
    Lowest Low: 40.0, 16th
    Highest Wind: NNW 27, 1st
    Most Precip: 0.34″, 18th

    Total Precip: 1.51″ (-0.16″)

    Avg High: 67.5 (-5.1)
    Avg Low: 49.5 (-1.0)
    Mean: 58.5 (-3.0)

    5th consecutive month with below average high and mean temps.
    1st month since January with below average precip

  3. Currently 44 chilly degrees.

  4. Karl Bonner says:

    On another note, Wunderground is forecasting a low temp of 47 degrees for The Dalles tonight (it’s currently 60 at airport). Given that there’s still a fair amount of breeze outside right now, I don’t find this very credible. Weather.com is calling for a far more reasonable 54.

    About the only way I could see sub-50 temps happening at the start of July is if the wind died out almost completely before the heights had a chance to warm up much. And it would have to happen at just the right time of day, most likely early evening. A few hours too early and the previous afternoon would get too warm. A few hours too late and radiational cooling wouldn’t get a chance to sink its teeth in before dawn.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Down to 49 in The Dalles as of 5am. Looks like wunderground was right on.

      There’s your sub-50 temps at the start of July Karl!

      43 here currently. Chilly.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      48 in The Dalles as of 6am.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      That seems real impressive for July 1st at The Dalles. The key is to kill the wind at that airport.

  5. Karl Bonner says:

    Did the DJ say it WOULD be hot or that it WOULDN’T? I’m assuming the former.

    But that radio show was yesterday, and yesterday the forecast high for the 4th on your chart was 83, and the day before that it was 85. Most Portland stations were calling for mid 80s prior to today, and some Eugene stations Tuesday evening predicted upper 80s for the South Valley on the 4th. And the word “hot” is a subjective term. Some people don’t consider 85 degrees to be hot, but others do (and in Arizona and interior California, low to mid 90s are usually considered to be merely warm). Also keep in mind that we had a very chilly spring and as a result, our blood is a little thicker than it normally is at the start of July.

    Heck, 75 degrees in late March would probably feel hot, even a bit uncomfortable, if it came on the heels of a prolonged period of wind, rain, foothill-ish snow levels, and high temps in the 40s.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      I imagine the DJ said the 4th WOULD be hot. Mark almost burst a blood vessel when the DJ said it WOULD, because, as we know, Mark is saying it won’t, and all of the models are pointing in that direction too.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      My annoyance was the implication that it would be a “sunny and hot” weekend, when we had forecast highs in the 70s on Sunday with cloud cover and merely 80-85 degree highs on Saturday and Monday.
      Listening to him I would think it was going to be 85-95 all three days.

    • Opps! I sure didn’t get that from this: “This year sure won’t be hot; I heard a radio DJ say that just yesterday..”

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Maybe I should have proofread my post and avoided the confusion. I just fixed it. Whatever I said before didn’t even make sense!

  6. Garron says:

    Not too shabby, glad it won’t be as cold by fireworks time as it was last year, and not as dry as back I think it was around 1986-87? I remember a jumping jack jumping a fence at the school that year and nearly igniting a grass fire in mere seconds.

    • bgb41 says:

      Were you lighting Jumping Jacks with David Martinez?

    • Garron says:

      lol, pretty close…I think it was Mike Watson, and (I) had to jump the fence and put it out….

    • Garron says:

      P.S.,thanks again for the weather link in previous blog,your pages are WAY easier to read than using wunderground’s!

    • Garron says:

      In retrospect, that guy was clumsy at times…One time he decided to launch a mortar shells at odd angles, and one bounced off the power lines at fort Vancouver, and went through the window of his brother’s van before detonating. His brother came out wearing a hard hat after that. Guess if you grew up around Mike W., you came prepared !

  7. bgb41 says:

    6/30/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:81 at LAKE OWYHEE AND O(2400 ft)
    Low: 62 at Blalock(280 ft)

    High:38 at Timberline Lodge(6001 ft)
    Low: 30 at CRAZYMAN FLAT (6100 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 41 degrees
    Bly Mountain (Or (73/32 ) (4920 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.56″ at CW6318 Welches(1283ft)
    0.51″ at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160ft)

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