Lightning Overnight?

Starting to feel a bit humid out there this evening with dewpoints rising and the cloud cover.  Of course that would be “Portland Humid” with a dewpoint still below 60 degrees…it ain’t exactly the Deep South!  A deep upper low is centered several hundred miles west of Coos Bay.  It won’t move in over us, but drop south to right around the San Francisco Bay area by Wednesday morning.  A very juicy front is offshore, and it’s raining pretty much everywhere from the Coast Range west.  The band of rainfall may not make much more inland progress since the low is dropping to our south. 

Of most interest the next 8 hours is an upper-level shortwave (similar to a ripple in a stream) that swings north through Western Oregon overnight and ends up in Washington by daybreak.  Both the WRF-GFS and our RPM show rain spreading north at the same time.  Our RPM has a very clear southerly flow type thunderstorm signature (see image above), showing storms breaking out over the Central Oregon Cascades around 8pm and then spreading north during the night.  The flow is almost straight southerly, so not much chance of anything over us (according to this one model), but if our model is correct, we could see a nice light show to our east between 10pm-2am.  We’ll see how it plays out.  The WRF-GFS shows a more solid band of moderate to heavy rainfall spreading north overnight.  That WOULD seem to match up with the current radar imagery better.  They both imply a very mild night; as soon as rain falls it’ll get quite humid too. 

Beyond that, Wednesday we’re into a westerly upper-level flow, marine airmass, and the usual light showers.  Plenty of cloud cover too.  After that the only forecast issue is only low cloud cover and how warm temps get.  We have a nice spell of summer weather beginning Friday and continuing through the middle of next week.  At this point it sure doesn’t appear hot, just warm with a minimum of morning clouds. 

Looks like summer will arrive BEFORE the 4th of July this year.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

80 Responses to Lightning Overnight?

  1. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Another interesting link here

    I’m sure some of you have heard of a few storms with “anti-cyclonic” rotation… Well, Sunnyvale California had an anti-cyclonic F2 tornado on May 4th, 1998.

    http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/divisions/warning/swat/Cases/980504/case.html

  2. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Anyways, I discovered a storm report via ‘NCDC Storm Events Database’ about a tornadic supercell that produced 2.50″ diameter hail in Kings County, California, on November 22nd, 1996. Yes, scary, and also impressive. The storm takes a very ‘classic’ shape on radar and would probably be recognized as an Oklahoma style storm. Hook echo also shows through much of its lifetime as well.

    But what I find strange is that the storm is moving to the southeast instead of northeast like any normal supercell would in the midwest. And whats also strange is how Tinypic is acting, so I can’t provide the radar loop that I wanted to show you all 🙂

  3. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Okay so I had no problem with this before until now…. I try to upload a radar loop to Tinypic.com in simple .gif format and I keep getting these error messages saying that it failed to upload. What’s with Tinypic lately? Can anyone explain?

    My file that I’m trying to upload is only 2.4 MB and the limit is up to 5 MB for one file. Not to mention the account in the above image has only been used twice.

    • bgb41 says:

      I have had problems with that once in a while too.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Usually that banner would pop up 3 or 4 times and then it would complete the upload but this time I’ve tried like 50 times, and nothing! 😆

  4. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Thunderstorms absent again. Tomorrow is our last chance, even if it is near zero.

  5. bgb41 says:

    6/28/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:93 at Ontario Municipa(2188 ft) & LAKE OWYHEE AND O(2400 ft)
    Low: 68 at Blalock(280 ft) & CW1075 Boardman(322 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:50 at ANNIE SPRINGS(6020 ft)
    Low: 38 at SUMMIT LAKE (5600 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 39 degrees
    Baker City Munic (85/46 ) (3373 ft )
    MINAM LODGE-PORT (84/45) (3575 ft)
    HEREFORD (83/44) (3599 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.70″ at RED MOUND(1753ft)
    1.60″ at BIGELOW CAMP(5120ft)
    1.59″ at ZIM(4089ft)

  6. 00Z GFS dumps another easy half inch rain next 24-48 hrs up here, PDX looks drier. June showers bring July flowers

  7. Kyle From Silverton says:

    Edit: Official. I wish this blog had an *edit* button where it stays active for 5 mins after your posts.

  8. Kyle From Silverton says:

    Hi. Blog. I am going to pull out the Thunderstorm cancel card since this is a offical bust.

  9. Hey blog, nice to hear some good dry weather coming……I’m stockpiling haikus in my so far abundant down time in camp from rain……with the bbq still fired up….see you on the hill!

  10. Kyle From Silverton says:

    I hope we have more blocking highs this winter and I mean DEEP WINTER not November.

  11. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    I assume a little bit action may fire way later this evening. Radars are not showing anything right now….

  12. Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

    It seems like all the GFS models lately have a persistent ridge present a little ways off N. california/south Oregon coast causing a NNW flow next weekend and beyond. That means temps will likely stay around 79-85F in Portland with maybe some brief morning clouds some days.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      That sounds about perfect.

    • Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

      Yea, nothing wrong with that! Well, except for the fact that I will be in Anchorage and Denali National Park where it will be even better weather for me (65 degrees and showery).

    • Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

      A couple of the mets must of seen the models today because they dropped the forecasted high temps for the weekend 2-5 degrees….I’m assuming it’s because of a weak onshore push.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      The recent trend on the models has been to keep ridging flatter, which means yes, more onshore influence and thus cooler temps.

  13. Garron says:

    After looking into the summers’ BGB mentioned, things “CAN” still swing together for a more normal summer.

    July 1980 mean hi 83, mean low 58, 2 90+ D/F days.
    Aug 1980 mean hi 77, mean low 58, 1 90+ D/F day
    Sep.1980 mean hi 73, mean low 56, 1 90+ D/F day

    July 1964 mean hi 74, mean low 57, 0 90+ D/F days
    Aug 1964 mean hi 75, mean low 54, 1 90+ D/F day
    Sep 1964 mean hi 65, mean low 52, 0 90+ D/F days

    July 1991 mean hi 82, mean low 62, 3 90+ D/F days
    Aug 1991 mean hi 78, mean low 61, 4 90 + D/F days
    Sep 1991 mean hi 75 mean low 59, 7 90 + D/F days

    July 1953 mean hi 75, mean low 6o, 1 90+ D/F day
    Aug 1953 mean hi 74, mean low 58, 3 90+ D/F days
    Sep 1953 mean hi 70 , mean low 52, 0 90+ D/F days

    July 2010 mean hi 80, mean low 58, 4 90+ D/F days
    Aug 2010 mean hi 80, mean low 58, 7 90+ D/F days
    Sep 2010 mean hi 74, mean low 58, 0 90+ D/F days.

  14. PaulB/Eugene says:

    Looking at ECMWF…looks more like highs in mid 70s…morning clouds/afternoon sun pattern for Jul 4, warming to mid to upper 80s for Jul 6 before another trough sets in for the following weekend…there is good model agreement for weather on the 4th at this point…as for later in the week hard to tell…..definitely 90 plus temps are on hold.
    Have had two days 80F or above so far in Eugene this year…highest so far 81F. Still three months of summer to go.

    As Jesse mentioned…CFS shows trend back to La Nina next winter with forecast cold temp anomalies over western Canada, NW USA, etc, with current state now basically a La Nada with leftover effects from the La Nina last winter….

  15. Muxpux says:

    I’m up in puyallup outside tacoma. Currently 70 DP 61 and sunbreaks

  16. WEATHERDAN says:

    NWS talks of major pattern shift in yesterday’s 6-10 day forecast. With a nice ridge over the Western CONUS. Looks like a nice extended start to summer. Let’s hope La Nina has finally disappeared. The rain sure felt nice overnight. Too bad Salem only got .13. I was hoping for at least one half inch. Which we may still get by late tomorrow. This will keep our yards green during the upcoming nice weather without having to water them. Latest NWS forecast high for Independence day in Salem is 88. Just right for a bar-b-q. Right now Salem is cloudy and 62.1.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      I’m looking forward to my grass dying so I won’t have to cut it anymore. I really like brown grass.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      The latest runs really water the ridge down for next week.

      Also, CFS forecasts show the Nina is likely coming back.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      Currently 67 and partly sunny in Salem. No rain since 6:00 AM. Pete Parsons who is with ODFW and is the chief meteorologist is calling for La Nada or ENSO Neutral conditions for the remainder of the year. After that is still up in the air. Those of you who really want a cold winter next year will probably be disappointed. Our recent winters seem to be trending warm and wet. I’m not predicting anything myself. Just repeating what I hear. And what I hear about this weekend is still warm and sunny..

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Where did you hear next winter would be disappointing weatherdan?

      Also, where did you hear our winters are trending warmer and wetter? If anything there has been a distinct trend toward colder winters overall in the past 5 years, right around the time the PDO turned negative so that makes sense.

      Is it possible for you to make a post without stating some sort of blatant falsehood?

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Very true. The years 2008, 2009, and also even last year we saw several bouts of record breaking cold snaps. December 2009 and November 2010 are precursors of more to come.

      Once again, Jesse is right. 🙂

    • Kyle From Silverton says:

      Except we cannot seem to get a good blocking setup in January where we can have at least 1 day of 2-4 inch snow spell.

  17. pappoose in scappoose says:

    A CYA comment from the NWS:

    National Weather Service Portland or
    836 am PDT Tuesday Jun 28 2011

    Short term…upper low off the northern California still tracking
    more south than east this morning and models are in agreement with position. Southerly flow aloft continue to stream showers across the area. NAM and GFS again hinting at enough instability to mention of thunderstorms into parts of the Willamette Valley this afternoon and evening.

  18. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    I guess we all had a wet night instead of a light show. And its still raining steadily with overcast skies, if this persists longer than we expected, it might become an issue and thunderstorm chances will be minimal. But showers do not look as solid out to the west anymore, so hopefully this clears out so we can tap into this energy for the storms.

  19. bgb41 says:

    It’s official, Portland has tied the least 80 degree day record of just 2 days this year so far. Only one other year (1980) matched this years total since records began at PDX in 1941.

  20. 0.19″ of rain since midnight. Currently 60.3 with light rain here in Silverton.

  21. Muxpux says:

    I’m workin back up north, not too bad right now, but back home….

    Longview can’t feel good right now.

    Temp: 61 DP: 61 precip last hour .04″
    Ughhh

  22. Karl Bonner says:

    Current dewpoint at DLS is 54 F, and I can make out a faint muggy feel to the air. And I just saw one distant flash of lightning, too.

  23. bgb41 says:

    6/27/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:94 at Ontario Municipa(2188 ft)
    Low: 62 at Blalock(280 ft) & Rufus(185 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:55 at Timberline Lodge(7001 ft) & YACHTS Yachats(74 ft)
    Low: 32 at CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 49 degrees
    DESCHUTES PORTAB (82/33 ) (5100 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.89″ at GOODWIN PEAK(1800ft)
    0.59″ at CHARLOTTE RIDGE(1220ft)
    0.57″ at CW9314 Florence(23ft)
    0.57″ at DUNES(120ft)

  24. Runrain says:

    Lightning was every 15-20 seconds for awhile in Sunriver.

  25. Gregg-formerly Troutdale now in Bend says:

    Kyle, there are some streaming cams over here. Pine mountain observatory has one, and KTVZ.com the news station has some as well I believe.

  26. pappoose in scappoose says:

    OK, Mark said there is a chance of a lightning strike in the Portland area this eve. Downplayed it big time but I heard it Mark.

  27. Gregg-formerly Troutdale now in Bend says:

    Getting a pretty good thunderstorm here in Bend at the moment. frequent thunder and lightning.

  28. Runrain says:

    Frequent thunder and lightning here in Sunriver!

  29. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    One storm with a 25,000 ft. top located in Northern Klamath County. VIL @ 33 kg/m2. If this cell continues to strengthen, could be a warning or at least significant weather advisory

  30. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    In the Willamette Valley, it seems the best dynamics that will drive any storm is the humid and moderately moist atmosphere. I just checked SPC mesoscale analysis, and most of the energy is actually concentrated around parts of the Rogue Valley and Klamath Basin.

    SPC Mesoscale Analysis – 8 PM PDT

    Lifted Index: -1 to -2 (-3 in NW Klamath County)
    Surface Based CAPE: 250-500 J/kg
    Mixed Layer CAPE: 250-500 J/kg
    Most Unstable CAPE: 500-1000 J/kg
    Wind shear: 40-45 kts. (50 kts. in NW Klamath County)

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=11#

      These parameters may advance northward tomorrow for a better of good thunderstorm activity if you guys are looking forward to that. There is still a chance for tonight as well, due to humidity levels.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Typo, forgot to add a word.

      These parameters may advance northward tomorrow for a better chance* of good thunderstorm activity

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Latest thoughts from the NWS.

      National Weather Service Portland or
      808 PM PDT Monday Jun 27 2011

      Rainfall depicting a very sharp cutoff just east of Interstate 5 this evening. Where it is has been raining along the coast and Coast Range…and now sneaking into the valley…we’ve seen moderate rainfall with a a few tenths of an inch to as high as 0.4-0.5 inches. With the slow moving system…expect another 0.25 to 0.5 inches still possible in these areas. Expect precipitation to get into more valley locations in the late evening…highest amounts south.

      Meanwhile…convective activity has been confined to the Cascade crest and points east this evening…no real concern for this evening. Best instability tomorrow is pinpointed well in current grids.Finishing the uncompleted thought from the earlier
      discussion…there is some indication that the atmosphere may become conducive to a thunderstorm in the valley for a brief time Tuesday afternoon…but a brief look at nam12 0z and NAM bufr soundings indicate that it would be a small window…and 700-500 mb (mid level) lapse rates are just so-so.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      NWS AFD from Medford.

      NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
      916 PM PDT MON JUN 27 2011

      .DISCUSSION…THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE LINE FROM SOUTHERN SCOTT VALLEY NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. STORMS ARE WEAKENING BUT ARE STILL HOLDING TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL.
      SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE APROACHING THE COAST WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD NORTHERN
      CALIFORNIA. SATELLITE ESTIMATE ALSO SHOWS PRECIPITATION WATER WITH THIS STORM TO BE ABOUT TWICE THE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
      CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN COOLING AS THEY APPROACH SOUTHWEST OREGON AND THIS LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FOR CURRY AND
      SOUTHERN JOSEPHINE COUNTY. UP TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL RANGE OVERNIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUN BRINGS AREAS OF RAIN INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
      SPREAD INTO KLAMATH COUNTY EARLY TUESDAY AND INTO LAKE COUNTY BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY WILL BE A WET DAY FOR JUST ABOUT ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PRECIPITATION CONTINUING
      INTO WEDNESDAY.

  31. Kyle From Silverton says:

    Did anyone not read my posts?

    I said I want clear nights with record low temps not cloudy days.

    I said YUCK to cloudy days. It’s the clear nights that give us real records and sunny warmish but not too hot days.

  32. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Considering the amount of atmospheric energy in the area, wouldn’t be surprised if you folks up north in the Willamette Valley get some sort of light show later this evening. This squall could strengthen as it moves inland.

    • Kyle From Silverton says:

      Does that include Silverton?

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      I can’t be sure where it occurs if convection is spotty. The rain showers that just passed the coast line is starting to break up a little bit.

  33. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Hmm, not that many posts, could be that everyone went out to go storm chasing 😉

  34. Karl Bonner says:

    If “Portland Humid” is dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s, then what is “The Dalles Humid”? Certainly our current dewpoint of 51 would qualify, no?

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      The Dalles should be even more humid by tomorrow, watch them top 60.

  35. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    I saw a few lightning flashes out west, but these cells are currently weakening, so it would a be gamble to actually catch it on video. But still some very ominous clouds are building, while a very warm/humid wind is gusting, something is brewing:

    http://www.flickr.com/photos/48045699@N06/sets/72157627065142736/

  36. Paulbeaverton says:

    I’m in Beaverton, would the west hills block my lightening show?

  37. WhiteEagle - Garden Home/SW Portland says:

    Tomorrow may be interesting too. Has anyone seen the CAPE values over the SW PDX metro tomorrow afternoon on both the GFS and NAM? 700-1000 J/kg… Pretty impressive for west of the Cascades. The question is, can we get enough sun???

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Once the main area of showers has passed the region overnight, I’m sure cloud cover will not be a complete issue if we want sunbreaks and daytime heating.

  38. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Okay, I noticed there is a bit of weak rotation with the cell just south of the CA border… On one of the scans it looked like a developing hook echo.

  39. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    A few solid looking thunderstorm cells formed just 20-30 miles west of me. And these don’t look like the pulse type storms that dissipate within 15 minutes. And a handful of strikes show on the map, so far this is a good sign. No doubt I will keep watching the situation.

  40. Kyle From Silverton says:

    A Kyle Style August is where we head down to record low temps at night for at least 2 days though I’d prefer a week and have the monthly night time temps be below average.

    A BIG bonus would be record low temps with record low HIGH temps at the same airmass with sunshine or filtered clouds at the most.

  41. Kyle From Silverton says:

    And I hope it’s not a light show of everyone arguing with each other on here. 😦

  42. Roman~Snow-Zone says:

    Mark I hope we get a light show!! This rain is refreshing though.

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