Broadcast Conference Day 2 & 3

Two more days of very good technical information here in Oklahoma City.  Hot and sunny weather (highs around 100) has been the rule, with one weak thunderstorm that moved through about 11pm last night.  Since it has been windy with relatively low humidity, it has been quite tolerable, especially after 6pm.  Here’s a nice little “Portland Weather Family” photo from yesterday.  The guy on the left then I suppose would be “Uncle Jeff Renner” from KING-TV in Seattle.  See?  We’re all friends…until a big snow forecast shows up of course.  The food has been good again too.  Last night it was the best crab cakes I’ve ever eaten along with spicy red beans and rice.    aggressive panhandling mallard ducks were wandering all throughout the tables too, including one that briefly nibbled on my toe…felt just like I was at home.  Speaking of that, quite a bit different from downtown Portland, almost no homeless or panhandling folks.  Not sure why.  I haven’t seen a single bicycle in 3 days either, plus they tend to not pay attention to people in the crosswalks.  I almost got run over twice.  We are courteous drivers in the Pacific Northwest.

Here are some highlights from my conference notes:

1.  Polarimetric Radar:  All WSR-88D (NWS) radars in the Pacific Northwest will be upgraded next Fall to dual-polarization.  The new radar near Aberdeen will be one of the first in the country with it later this summer.  What does it mean?  Basically scanning will be done in both the vertical AND horizontal, which allows determination not only of target size (size of hail, rain etc…), but now the SHAPE of the target as well.  The graphic at the top of the post gives you the basic idea.  Since each hydrometeor has a specific shape (hail or dry snow, or wet snow) we’ll have a much better idea of what is actually falling.  For example, the radar will be able to detect the “melting layer”, the elevation at which snow is changing to rain.  Pretty useful with that new radar eh?  We will now know how low the snow level is in the air as it’s approaching the coastline.  Plus hail will be easier to detect.  Apparently it’ll be easier to remove birds and dust from the radars as well.  This will all be working for this upcoming winter.  Some nice long training courses for it are at this address:  http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/dualpol/index.html

2.  Wind Farms & Radar:  Some trouble in parts of the country with wind turbine farms and radar interference.  Obviously they stay in the same spot, but it throws off the algorithms for mesocyclone and tornado detection (where farms are relatively close to the radar).  Here’s a related wrinkle too; apparently 3G networks are beginning to show up as “spikes” on radar displays too.  We’ll see how that gets dealt with.

3. National EAS Test:   Do you know the actual reason for the EAS (used to be EBS) system?  It’s so the President of the USA can quickly speak to all Americans in case of a national crisis.  When he/she is NOT using it, the system can be used for other civil emergency or preparedness tasks.  Of course you know it’s used for Tornado Warnings in most of the country, and occasionally here in the Pacific Northwest for Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.  Well, it’s NEVER been used by a President so it’s never been tested for that purpose.  But on November 9th this year, all USA TV stations will be tested at the exact same time for about 2 minutes.  That means all programming will stop.  They didn’t say what time of the day it would occur.

4.  NCEP Model Update:  A few brief notes.  The ECMWF continues to be a better model than the GFS, but the UKMET surpassed the GFS in 2009.  Of course all models are getting better and better.  GFS resolution (space between grid points) went from 35 to 28 km. last summer.  That’s out to  7.5 days, then its 70km resolution.  That’s why maps look coarser beyond 1 week too.  NAM will go through a big upgrade in August.  It will start using the NEMS model instead of the current WRF.  The NAM will stay as 12km resolution through 84 hours…but a new 4km CONUS domain will go to 60 hours.  that’s a very impressive model resolution…will it do better with surface lows this winter?  We’ll see.

Tomorrow is a tour of the National Weather Center in Norman.  That includes SPC and some other research areas.

Back in Portland, a pretty decent weekend shaping up with the marine layer really thinning down, with even a hint of brief offshore flow Monday.  Combine that with 850 mb temps up in the 10-14 degree range and the last few days of June; we should get at least a few degrees above 80 on Monday.  A trough swinging in Tuesday or Wednesday brings the showers back.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

224 Responses to Broadcast Conference Day 2 & 3

  1. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    This is a slow moving squall of showers. Just noticed that. 🙂

  2. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Lots of action off to the West, hope it doesn’t all pass by offshore and go South.

    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?vis_common_full+today

  3. Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

    Is there something wrong with me because I have been watching the radar eagerly anticipating the arrival of the rain? It has been far too dry lately for my liking and I hope we get a good soaking later today/early tomorrow.

  4. bgb41 says:

    ****FOX 12 BLOG DISCUSSIONS FACEBOOK GROUP****

    http://www.facebook.com/home.php?sk=group_158533057538771&ap=1

    Come join this open weather discussion group on facebook. There are currently 64 members including a few well known people in the local weather community such as Rod Hill, Brian MacMillian, Steve Pierce, and Bobby Corser from AMS.

  5. WEATHERDAN says:

    79 and cloudy here in Salem at 3 PM. I hope we get about a half an inch of rain in the next 24 hours. An inch of rain would be welcome too. My lawn could use a good soaking to stay green. Looks like a nice stretch of July weather coming up starting on Friday and going into next week. Finally some good weather at the bottom of the cliff.

  6. Kyle From Silverton says:

    I would LOVE to see a Brian style July with a Kyle style August and a mix between Kyle and Jesse style cold in September.

  7. Kyle From Silverton says:

    Right now the Baro is falling the fastest I have seen it in months down to 29.73 in Aurora and still falling.

    Right now it’s 72F there and 77 at Salem and humid with dewpoints in the 50s.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if we have a Timmy style thunderstorm somewhere in the area though it would be nice if this was a Brian style heatwave to REALLY cook things up.

    I hope August is a Kyle style cold month with a lot of freak numbers.

  8. Roman~Snow-Zone says:

    Looks like it’s going to be a great day weather wise.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Oh, didn’t know its a great day when showers are headed your way!

      http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=RTX

    • Garron says:

      Hey it’s a nice sunny day!!!! (somewhere) lol, I’m still gonna Q it up. I have a shelter, and just like a postal worker, NOTHING can stops me from barbs-buh-quin, not snow, nor sleet, nor sun, nor easter could keep me coals from cookin!!!! Sorry, have to go before the sarcasm storm overtakes me steaks….

  9. Jesse, I was on vacation last week, but I see I had a low of 40.0 one morning, did you dip into the upper 30s at all?

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Nope, I had a low of 40.6 Saturday morning at my station in Orchards.

      Where I was camping Friday night (off of Forest Road 88 near Mt. Adams) it dropped down to 32, though.

    • I hit 40.7 on Saturday morning and 42.1 yesterday morning. I looked and back in 2007 the high/low on the 26th was 87/41 here. The next day was a soggy 56/50!

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      On the 24th and 25th I hit 37F for lows. Funny there was a frost advisory but temperatures were obviously not that cold and even when we did go into the 20’s and 10’s last winter, those were never issued???

    • Frost can form on the ground when the air temperature is below 38, or even as warm as 40.

      Also, they only issues frost/freeze advisories when the conditions happen during what is normally growing season, or after a prolonged warm episode that has started the growing season.

      If that wasn’t the case, they would issue a freeze warning daily for parts of the country all winter long.

    • Freeze Warning – Widespread temperatures at or below 32 °F (0 °C) during the growing season. A freeze may occur with or without frost. A hard freeze occurs with temperatures below 28 °F (−2 °C).

      Frost Advisory – Widespread frost during the growing season. Frost generally occurs with fair skies and light winds.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Thanks, i get it now

  10. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Currently I am looking at the possibility of afternoon convection here today, tomorrow, and maybe even Wednesday as well. Finally a decent forecast for the Klamath Basin.

  11. Yesterday my max wind was just 9 mph. This is the first time I’ve had a daily max wind below 10 mph since March 6th.

    Just hit 6 mph today, my high for the day.

    Much warmer this AM. 54, as opposed to yesterday’s 43.

  12. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Hahaah! The challenge today is…when will the rain start? I have light rain already.

    http://rodhillforecast.com/weather/daily-planner-video.html

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      I’m not feeling highs around 80 today. Maybe 75 if the rain holds off long enough.

      Hard to believe the models were spitting out highs close to 90 for today a few days back.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      As a side note, if we don’t hit 80 today (this basically looks like our last realistic chance for the rest of the month) we will tie the record for least 80+ days at PDX going into July, with only two so far.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Jesse is just joking, it will be 95F.

      Tsk, tsk 🙂

    • Ya the rain is pretty close…one thing for sure it will be rather muggy the next 24 hours or so. 6 out of the last 15 June’s have failed to hit 90 for me, so I guess it’s just about every other year. That being said the last time it was above 90 in June for me for a max was 100.4 in 2008.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      It will feel especially muggy considering we had DP’s in the 30s in spots yesterday afternoon.

    • Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

      I hope you enjoy the cool weather while it lasts Jesse because by next weekend real summer weather is coming 🙂

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      And wait ’till August! Jesse’s most hated month

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Funny Mike, for being so against trolling you sure do it an awful lot.

      You brought me up like five times the other day when I wasn’t even posting. Looking for a reaction? Sorry, I’m not Rob. 😉

    • Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

      That’s funny you metion that because every time I read the blog your the one doing all the trolling 😆

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      We must admit that without this sarcasm there is no character on the blog. 🙂

    • EA_TTD says:

      I agree Jesse, models spat out a 90 for today as late as Friday. Even some of the MOS guidance last night had us in the low to mid-80’s for today. DP really jumped here last night around 8 and is still in the low 50’s compared to upper 30’s and 40’s yesterday. Even if we manage to get to 77 or so, it’ll feel like 80 to us.

    • IMO Jesse’s “trolling” is greatly exaggerated. Its usually minor sarcasm which sends various blog members into an explosive and murderous rage. Sure maybe he’s a little brash and impolite sometimes, but I don’t see him posting profanity laced screeds. Has he crossed the line before…Yes, but it does not happen as often as most people act like. Should he or anyone else insult anyone on a weather blog? NO! But a minor insult is not an excuse to go off the deep end. This just isn’t the place for it.

    • Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

      Some people may respond in an immature manner with the cussing but you will never see any of that stuff in my comments.

    • I know Mike. I wasn’t trying to insinuate anything about you. It was more of a general comment prompted by the “conversation” you and Jesse were having.

    • Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

      The issue I’m having is that the sarcasm is directed only at certain people each and every time. I can understand why people are upset about it because they feel like there being singled out for whatever reason.

    • I understand, but the original comments that caused the whole uproar weren’t particularly offensive and were not even posted on this blog. The fact that it spilled over here and became what it did, I found ludicrous, especially considering that I “witnessed” the whole thing go down on the other forum in real time. The response was imo completely over the top. I’m not trying to pick sides, and I’m not saying that Jesse didn’t in some way provoke the reaction, but quite frankly I found it (the reaction) somewhat disturbing and completely unnecessary. My advice to both of the parties in question would be to not respond at all to each others posts.

    • Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

      That’s probably the smatest thing to do… Since certain people can handle the sarcasm but others not so much.

    • Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

      *smartest

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Yeah, some may see this minor sarcasm as some sort of personal attack. To me, its comedy! Keep it com’n.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      I didn’t think it would reach 80 today either. Think 77 was the max at KPDX, surprised it reached that (if that remains the high).

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      The light rain this AM didn’t amount to anything, just been spitting sprinkles today…didn’t even get the ground wet.

  13. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Just heard another really interesting fact on The Weather Channel earlier today. About 4,600,000 acres of wildfire has occurred in the south so far this year, and the 10 year average is only 2,100,000 acres.

    Add that with the abnormal amount of severe weather reports given so far, makes this a year for the record books indeed.

  14. bgb41 says:

    6/26/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:90 at MERLIN SEED ORCH(1064 ft)
    Low: 57 at BURNT RIDGE(2955 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:52 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 26 at DESCHUTES PORTAB (5100 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 51 degrees
    CABIN LAKE (81/30 ) (4560 ft )
    DESCHUTES PORTAB (77/26) (5100 ft)

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      I’m glad lows are back up into thhe 40’s. I’d really be hating this area if otherwise.

  15. Karl Bonner says:

    So the past couple days I’ve been all excited about the prospects of somewhat better astronomical seeing conditions as the marine push weakens…and then today the sky turns cloudy, with plenty more clouds expected the next couple days! I hope we get at least SOME good planetary nights before summer / Indian summer is over!

    • Kyle From Silverton says:

      Has anyone noticed when we are under a SW flow tempers seem to flare upon the blog no matter what time of the year?

      It’s like SW flows bring something evil in the air.

  16. Marc (NE Vancouver) says:

    Sensitivity and emotions running wild on this blog.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      I know, the sunshine is pouring sweat all over the croud. Its mind boggling, we need some wall clouds and hail shafts to cool us all down.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      crowd*

      There goes another typo 🙂

  17. Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

    GFS 00z says by 4th of july weekend we might start a nice sunny stretch of possible 80-85F weather 🙂

    • Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

      we only have 3 months left before the rainy season sets back in so to see a period of sunnier, warmer weather coming should make countless oregonians feel so much better.:)

  18. Boydo3 N. Albany 500' says:

    Should be some fantastic weather for the weekend and the 4th.

  19. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Anyways, hope to see some thunderstorms 🙂

  20. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    And in reply to the comment posted @ 2:52 AM…

    To be honest, Mark is a very busy person with a busy agenda and I just don’t think he has the time to really even care about little cat + mouse chases like this. He’s got better priorities to deal with and I think he too even realises that people need to look at the bigger picture.

  21. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    wow, just read through last night’s crazy fest. Boy, it’s beyond my imagination why users are chased off the blog all because of lousy text comments? None of us know each other physically, so why get all bent out of shape by a little sarcasm. Maybe I can take this kind of stuff better than many other people can, but still, text is text, and there is no true meaning to it. We are speaking with a keyboard, and talking through a computer screen.

    So, my point is, why do people let this happen to them? And we should all know by now that one or two users on this blog are riddled by 100% sarcasm, and I actually find that sarcasm intertaining to say the least. Not to be mean to anyone, but some of us need to learn to deal with it. I have absolutely no problem with anything here, and I certainly don’t see any major problems until someone starts complaining about another’s comment, which to me is really child-like.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      I’m only 18, and I don’t let anything bother me, or let anyone get the better of me. There are many 20+ and 30+ year olds on here that simply don’t act their age. Deal with it, dudes and dudettes. But maybe that’s just me, and maybe I’m just wierd.

    • bgb41 says:

      intertaining?? I think you meant “Entertaining?”

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Lol, we all make those mistakes, and I was typing fast too.

    • Joe Francona says:

      Totally agree Timmy. I love how bgb or whatever tried to bait you with spelling criticisms lol. He is probably one of the people convinced that the one whiny dude is some sort of weather god.

    • bgb41 says:

      Notice how he didn’t reply Joe? He’s in my facebook group and realizes that you just made a douche-bag comment.

    • Josh (Gresham) says:

      Brian was just messing with Timmy, he’s not trying to “bait” him

    • I agree Timmy. Part of being an adult is learning how to deflect negativity or respond in a mature manner. Kudos to you for figuring that out at such a young age.

  22. bgb41 says:

    Just taking a look at the IR 4km satellite loop I would say that Portland is gonna have a hard time getting much above 75 tomorrow. Lots of mid-high clouds may just block out the sun like today.

  23. Garron near Washington square says:

    I sure am glad for all of these wonderful weather instruments! Also looking forward to using that Nov. test as a good practical joke on someone! Hope it is during the day. When I’d take people back to N.Dakota, some towns would sound their tornado horns twice daily, like 9 am and 9 pm. So,knowing that, you’d take advantage of that when you had someone visit from out of the area. Always geta big laugh out of having them running to the basement, then have my dad flicker the lights on and off, scare the daylights out of them a lil,then see the look on their faces when they found out we were joking….its the small things in life, especially practical jokes, at least in my family, and fun to bring up at the dinner table years later.

  24. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    It is true that if we want good thunderstorms, it has to be somewhat hot. Tue/Wed we might see temps in the 60’s. Not so great looking for thunderstorms. But hey, I’ll take anything that produces electricity, which I’m sure we will get sooner or later, to some degree anyways.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Sure we saw many good thunderstorms on October and November of 2009, thanks to all the heavy and thick moisture content we had access to back then. But during summer time, what are the chances we tap into that kind of thing?

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      About the same as the chances of having a Stray Albino Donkey roam into town. Hahaah!

    • Cherie in Vernonia says:

      NWS took away all my stray albino donkeys 😦

    • Garron near Washington square says:

      A picnic up in the mountain passes might be the best shot for any good thunder and lightening parties this week.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Right Cherie, but wow…upwards of an inch of rain!

      National Weather Service Portland or
      202 PM PDT sun Jun 26 2011

      Also hastened up the timing of this system bringing to the coast on Monday evening…and inland Tuesday morning before exiting the region Tuesday night. The big question now is the northern extent of the precipitation as the low digs further south. So there may be a distinct line where the northern parts of the area may only see light precipitation for a time while the southern half of the forecast area gets upwards of an inch of rain.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      But where is their forecasting area ranging from? I never quite found that out.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      I’ve always wondered what the line was as well Timmy, here’s what they post:

      This discussion is for northwest Oregon and southwest Washington from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is commonly referred to as the forecast area.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      I only read their discussions through the blog, so that’s probably why I didn’t see that. 🙂

  25. Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

    I’m sorry but if some of you don’t enjoy heat waves and the t-storms that on occasion come after a heat wave then you aren’t true weather lovers. That’s the conclusion I’ve come to sadly 😦

    • Most thunderstorms here are to lame to really get that excited about. There have only been about 4-5 decent t-storms here in my life. Which are equal to about the average thunderstorm in Oklahoma, which I witnessed many times over the three years I lived there. Just not that big a deal to me, doesn’t mean I don’t love weather.

    • Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

      Anything that produces lightning around here is considered exciting 🙂

    • For me, it depends on when it happens. If it’s when I need to go to sleep, I hate it because I’ll end up being awake far past the end of the storm. If it’s like it was recently, where it was ending when I had to go to sleep, I loved it.

    • Well, June 4, 2009 was pretty exciting imo.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Yes, June 4th 2009 cannot be forgotten, no matter what anyone says.

      I’ll list the dozens and dozens of severe weather reports as a re-cap if ya all want 😆

    • Runrain says:

      Totally agree, Mike!

  26. jbpdx says:

    Actually this is completely overcast/cloudy in Aloha at 2 pm

    • jbpdx says:

      More specifically, another crummy sub-par for the course Portland day. Will it be 6 or 7 degrees below average? June’s shaping up for another 90% of days below average temp…

  27. muxpux says:

    72, and a thinly veiled sun. ill take it. just bright enough to wear sunglasses, yet not so bright that its necessary. my drink is cold. music is up. works for me.

  28. jbpdx says:

    re: Sunday. I’d hardly call this sunny. It’s like one large thin cloud stretching from horizon to horizon…

  29. PhilinForestGrove says:

    First time I included the html and the blog blocked it. Forgot you could simply post the link and it would automatically add the html.

  30. bgb41 says:

    Latest NCEP showing full-on summer conditions along the west coast July 2-10 period.

    http://www.brianschmit.com/Forecast%20Links/6_to_10_day_outlooks.htm

  31. PhilinForestGrove says:

    Here’s a pic I took today showing the ring around the sun.

    I guess you can’t post images anymore on this blog? Is that correct or is there a different way of doing it now?

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