Good news, the month long spring flooding of the Columbia River has ended. The river is below flood stage now in the Metro area after dropping about 2′ in the past 4-5 days. It’s forecast to fall another 2-3′ the next week or so. The river never got quite as high as it did during the spring flooding in 1997, but it was within a foot.
So far the following link is updating for KPTV 7 day forecast. I am having trouble with the one on Mark’s website.
http://tinyurl.com/6kkdojr
I can’t fix the link on my own website until I get home.
C’mon 00z !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I’m not really that excited. Perhaps one exclamation point, but not an entire row of them.
Yup, we twitch a little when things start changing on the models!
But hey, being weather nerds and having no “weather” to talk about is like a drunk without his drink…I ssuurre wwoulldd llikke aaa littttle sssssippp bboutt nnnnoww!!!!!!!!!!!!!
18Z GFS not backing down on the idea of gorgeous summer weather coming soon.
😀
If you are referring to before July 5th, then I agree.
I know it’s cliche’ by some people’s ideology but, sure seems like real summer always starts right after the 4th. That big blocking high finally decides to park it for a couple months.
Maybe that’s just my old guy memory trying to fool me, I guess.
We wish! Looks fairly normal, nothing too crazy.
Lightning and thunder in Bellevue currently
Nice !
Peter, what was your 24 rainfall total?
I didn’t get one drop down here in Battle Ground but the sky was threatening at times this morning. Now its almost clear skies.
.89″ since midnite, 1.06″ storm total, plenty for June…
Here’s something to keep some of us occupied until the action…
Glasgow, MT – June 16th, 2010.
One of the best radar loops I’ve seen in the PNW, this goes next to June 4th 2009.
May 31, 1997 was another great day for widespread activity… Tornado watch was actually issued for parts of eastern Washington and NE Oregon. I’ll be sure to upload a loop of that one too.
Man, all I hear lately is talk between cold and warm temperatures, and so far I’m the only one focused on the possibility for good convection. Trust me, thunderstorms are a lot more exciting than temperatures! 😆
Well some of us don’t get action as much as you do. Now atleast we enjoy some sunny weather.
12z EURO still at odds with the GFS in terms of placement/track of the ULL offshore and then ridging after wards showing a much flatter ridge pattern. BOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! (Jesse, you win this round!)
Weak troughing too. Not good not good.
The runs this time of day are always the most boring ones.
This is what I like to hear. 🙂
Jesse, I just walked about two blocks in 100 degree temp, windy too with a dewpoint in the 50s. It feels SO good…like…summer. Yes, the first evening I sweat quite a bit, but you start to get used to it after 3 days. Plus, then it’s perfect in the evening when it’s dark and in the 80s…lots of people suddenly appear here in downtown OKC at that time. Anyway, just wished you could have been standing here baking as well. Of course a nice 70 degree day will be perfect when I get home.
Now Mark, I was informed that there is no such definition of summer. In fact there is no definition at all.
Wishcaster…….
True. So True.
Summer begins June 21st, and ends September 21st. 🙂 That’s summer for ya
Summer is the warmest and longest days of the year. That should suffice.
Monday might end up being a tad warmer than 80F Mark…A few of the models are indicating maybe temps as high as 85.
NCEP long range is now out for today
http://www.brianschmit.com/Forecast%20Links/6_to_10_day_outlooks.htm
For the first time in months, there is orange (above normal) in the PNW for early July.. Nice!!!
What happened to summer in the metro area?
Fantastic east of the cascades.
12Z GFS @ KTTD – http://i56.tinypic.com/vdms6s.jpg
12Z GFS – Warmest run of 2011 so far with a 78.1 degree average next 16 days. Only one real day with rain and 7 days above 80.
Just one day above 90 and thats way out there on July 7th. Bottom line here is that the days of overcast/shwrs and 65 degrees are coming to an end after today.
“Coming to an end after today”. I’ll certainly give you first place for bravery today.
Well at least till middle of next week of course.
We’ll see about that! (Coming to an end after today)…indeed a brave statement.
When the ULL ejects out of Nor Cal next week it could be cloudy and 65 again.
Bgb’s just wishcasting, let him have his fun guys. 😉
I think most of us on here think that my wishcasting is much better than Jesse being a DICKHEAD.
How is it wishcasting, isn’t it true that around this time of the year we usually stop seeing conditons like that?
Let’s remember not to pick at each other’s heads here… You all know Jesse is the king of sarcasm. No need to get mad at that. 🙂 Stay positive everyone 🙂
Most recent 12Z GFS Output @ KTTD now punching a 90-degree ticket for hour 84. That time frame is this upcoming Monday.
Would anyone like to start taking bets on how soon Jesse complains about this?
AND that is in the realm of the believable time frame too!
GFS has outperformed Euro in my opinion this spring. It does seem to be centering on some true ‘summer weather’ in the believable range and the long term as well. Still think the temps will moderate into the mid-80’s with future runs and base that on nothing more than a long range war bias but it’s still nice to see some true Oregon summer weather showing up more and more. Give me 83/58 and sunny all day every day and I’m a happy camper!
err…long range WARM bias.
I would like to get my complaint in first before Jesse. I actually wouldn’t dread a few days in the low to mid 80s, but 90 is too hot. We will see…
I personally would dread a few days in the 90s, but my garden would love it.
A quick jump into the 90’s would feel downright hot. As I mentioned a few times this Spring it may take just a bit longer for our bodies to acclimate to the hotter temps thanks to the cool Spring.
I will be the secound to complain “no 90’s all summer please”
12Z GFS @ PDX weekly outlook – Huge improvements for next week. This run keeping upper low further offshore early next week. This is breaking off 3 80+ days in a row for PDX Mon-Wed next week. Very Nice!!!!!!
I am definitely not trying to jinx anything, but I think we are beginning to see a trend emerge which is drier and switch to warm-hot weather. It is really nice to see in the models. *Crossing toes* that 12z EURO begins to agree.
One thing from all the run off is lots of drift wood on the beach as a lot of the Columbia River’s drift heads North this time of year as the California Counter Current starts to pick up. I can always tell when it starts for the drift has different items in it (mostly eel grass, LOL)
So far this month:
For the first time this year ave temp over normal so far!
High ave 66.4 Low ave 50.9 Average Temp 57.8 or +1.8ºF
Rain is only 0.72 or -2.17″ behind
Wind max 25.0 mph on 6/4 West
Even though we have not had a lot of rain, the sun has not been seen much. Lots of marine layer and drizzle. If I look close today I can see a bit of blue in the sky, but over 90% cloud cover for sure right now!
Maybe July will be better for us!
.96″ rain past 24 hrs thanks to PSCZ. 48F…
Make that 1.02″ now. No watering needed!
Love your reports, thanks Peter
6/23/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary
Warmest:
High:88 at LAKE OWHEE AND O(2400 ft)
Low: 62 at BULLY CREEK RESE(2500 ft) & Blalock(280 ft)
Coldest:
High:39 at Timberline Lodge(6001 ft)
Low:31 at & Timberline Lodge (7001 ft ) & Timberline Lodge (6001 ft )
Largest Diurnal Change: 37 degrees
Bly Mountain (Or (74/37 ) (4920 ft )
Beatty (73/36) (4320 ft)
Heaviest Rainfall:
0.21″ at DW4535 Cannon Beach(23ft)
Both EURO and GFS show an impressive upper level low sticking around northern California/southwest Oregon start next Tuesday. 00z looks interesting.
One of those “Hmmmm…” moments 😆
If anyone missed thunderstorms so far this late Spring, early next week should be a healthy shot at convection. Maybe a Supercell or two in the mix….. Hmmmm…… 🙂
There is a chance if we can remain in the “warm sector” minimizing onshore flow.
I like it 🙂
Anything like albino donkeys would be great!
00Z EURO says no to a 4th of July heat event. Glad to see that.
I’m not, but you will be okay just go hold your blankey when you see a hot computer model run, that will make everything a-okay.
Point is you would be fine if it turns hot. You’re really not THAT much of a pansy, right? … Granted I do have a wall unit a/c that helps tremendously to keep that house between 74-77 when it gets up into the 95-100F range.
U mad bro?
For those of us who have air conditioners, I don’t think they would care how hot it is outside. Just being honest 🙂
Nah, you mad bro? you mad? …. 55.9, DP 46 kind of chilly. DOES make for a good night’s sleep, but tomorrow man just another barfy crapfest of a day I’m sure(Sounded like Tim for a moment!) Tim = ttsea on Western. He’s a legend. Some call him the “Moss King”
LOL
LOL. Even I have a window mount that I put up once in a while here at the coast; however I don’t think I will need it this year! Right now here NNE of Long Beach lots of Drizzle, again, or is it still! Oh well, what ya going to do. 🙂
Certainly enjoyed watching the 00z GFS run tonight. Looks like 100-105 possible if we did get offshore compressional heating. I hope 00z EURO shows some similarities… Let’s get things roasting!!!! ENOUGH of the crappy gray skies, solid clouds, hoping for a friggin sun break, being cold in JUNE seriously…..
I hope that most of the summer is comfortable but if it gets hot my vote is that it gets really REALLY hot. Like 108 or something. Otherwise I think its a waste of being really uncomfortable. 🙂 In other news what do you think about Tuesday-Wednesday. Thunderstorm chance? I think its possible if the marine layer doesn’t kill it.
Yeah I do like the SSE-SE flow aloft a few runs have shown, but it will all depend on the placement/track of the low offshore don’t want it too close. We are getting to that time of year that actually favors an increased chance of warm-core convection though.
I notice the latest 00z models have it at what I would say is the optimal placement and distance. So hopefully it works out pretty close to as shown.
Right extreme weather fans, if it’s going to get hot, I’m in for a blazing/smoking/scorching death ridge. I really like roasting offshore compressional heating!
I generally prefer cooler weather, but a extreme heat event is always fun.
00Z GFS output @ KTTD
A short intense heat wave has developed on the latest run right on the holiday weekend. Lets hope for at least some sunshine.
Yah! I love the short but intense heatwaves watching the therometer go up n down.
I made an account at Tiny Pics url and wonder what people on here think of that site for uploading pictures or if anybody knows any sites they like better.
Note: I don’t mind paying for an account either if it comes to it.
00Z GFS weekly outlook for PDX: http://i52.tinypic.com/8wyz2s.jpg
2 more below normal days coming, then closer to normal or slightly above. BTW, this new format shows below normal in blue, above in red and black days are normal.
00Z producing major heat wave for the 4th of July 850mb temps of +26 and 98 degrees. Crazy model output again? probably
I hope that’s bogus.
Jesse, I’m just wondering something. How can you enjoy weather so much when you don’t like any weather extremes?
Extreme cold is great!
If you think sitting out in 98 degree weather waiting for the fireworks sounds like fun, I’m sure there’s a fireworks show in Tucson just waiting for you.
I’d love 98 degree weather on the 4th, I go to Astoria, so 80’s at the coast would be awesome haha
With +26 and easterly flow, no that wouldn’t be 98. That would easily be in the 102-104 range.
Ummm…Jesse, if it does get to 98 on July 4, it sure won’t be 98 at the time that the fireworks shows are happening. More like mid 80s, which will be very comfortable after the sizzling afternoon.
Ummm…Karl, if I get there in the late afternoon like most people do it would still be around 98 then.
Ummm…Karl & Jesse…let me join the arguing…I don’t show up for fireworks until 8-9pm. It is kind of weird that you don’t like extreme heat events Jesse, it’s just the opposite of extreme cold and either way you don’t go outside as much.
Well latest GFS only producing upper 70’s on the 4th so that will be a pleasant day.
I knew it would be over soon after seeing Mt. Hood two days ago. The snow was completely gone at Govt. Camp (anyone know how long that area’s been snow-free?) and didn’t form a continuous ground cover until we got over halfway up to Timberline; i.e. about 5000-5500 ft. elevation. Still tons of snow on the upper slopes, of course.
There’s still tons of snow in sheltered spots at 3,500 and above too. Govy is usually one of the first spots at it’s elevation to melt out. I would say the flooding not getting worse is more a result of it never getting really hot around here than it is a “lack” of snow in the mountains. The Cascades still have a well above average snowpack.
It’s because we never had signficant rain in the Pacific Northwest during the past month. If we (or any of the Columbia River Basin) would have had 5-10″ of rain like parts of eastern Montana or the Dakotas had, the crest would have been higher.
And heavy snowpack in the Cascades doesn’t mean spring flooding west of the Cascades either. Our westside rivers are “built”, or at least used to large volumes of water from heavy rain. Just melting snow in the Cascades, even in a hot spell doesn’t give you more than a fraction of the runoff that a heavy rain episode does.
Yup, still quite a bit of snow in the trees and on the north side of the mountains down to (and below) 4000′ in the central cascades. Rumor has it that a few higher spots in the coast range have some spots of snow still on the north sides. Mary’s peak is one. Gonna be one hell of a skeeter season up there.
One summer I rode the Mtn Bike up the north side of Marys Peak. Those trees are massive on that trail.
True Mark, a heavy rain event would have precipitated (no pun intended) a much higher river level.
A flood obviously won’t be caused by snowmelt alone, but I imagine if the past few weeks had been really hot, the river would have stayed higher for a little longer, given the record snowpack at many up-basin sites.
Of course the reason Govt. Camp is one of the first places to lose its snow is because it’s on a south-facing slope.
Which brings me back to the “let’s pretend we’re in California” microclimate. As I discussed before, the best candidate I can think of is not Catherine Creek itself, but rather the lake about a mile to the west. There are steep hillsides with lots of dark-colored basalt immediately behind the lake, AND it’s tucked in behind tall hills / small mountains immediately to the west that likely block the spring and summer west winds to some extent. I bet it would be an excellent place for water activities on a warm and windless October day, provided we hadn’t already gotten enough chilly weather to cool the water into the 50s.
2nd the best!!!! 😀
Well that’s good to hear.. And that flooding in Montana and the Dakotas is is something else. Thats going to last quite a while.