Looks like June!

The weather maps sure look like June…this is what I mean:

1.  No significant period of rain in the next 7+ days.  Possibly a sprinkle tomorrow or Wednesday morning, and maybe a sprinkle this weekend.  But there are no cold fronts or juicy wet weather systems in sight.

2. Some warm days and some cooler days in the 7 Day forecast.  The warmest temp I have on there is 76 for Thursday, the coolest tomorrow around 63.  The average high this time of year is 71 or 72, so this range is very normal.

3.  Mix of sun and clouds, but plenty of onshore flow tomorrow and Friday through Sunday.  I’d say maybe 60-70% of the daylight hours the next 7 days will be cloudy or mostly cloudy.

Speaking of tomorrow’s forecast, I just made some quick changes.  It’s been bugging me all afternoon/evening that our RPM model keeps showing  mostly sunny skies after about 11am tomorrow.  That seemed totally counter-intuitive to a strong marine push in progress and a chilly airmass overhead tomorrow (down to 1-2 degrees at 850mb. by afternoon).  Then it finally dawned on me.  Often when a cold trough comes overhead, it totally disrupts the marine layer and lessens the stability.  Almost like it’s releasing the low level moisture to mix out up above (not really correct, but hopefully you get the idea).  So I quickly changed all the westside forecasts to match what you see up above.  It’ll be interesting to see how it turns out.

The other change was in the 7 Day Forecast.  More troughiness Friday-Sunday means more cloud cover and cooler temps.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

145 Responses to Looks like June!

  1. bgb41 says:

    00Z GFS @ KTTD

    Strong trough moving in days 7-12 for showers and cool. All heat is gone again.

  2. W7ENK says:

    Oregon City, clearing skies, lots of stars, quarter moon, sprinkles… WTF?!? o_O

  3. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Currently looking at the chance for some convection popping up around the Cascades tomorrow…. Chances are the storms will develop east of the Cascades, all the moisture and instability is projected a little farther inland than I’d like it be. But even if I am at the edge of the thunderstorms, I’ll take anything.

  4. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    FYWI (For Your Weather Information 🙂 ): Nice change in weather lately for Klamath Falls! Hit 73F today, and wind finally calmed down for once! Yee hooo haaa!

  5. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Have some light sprinkles here presently.

  6. Just returned from hiking around Coldwater Lake by Mt. St. Helens. 12.2 miles but only 1,600′ of elevation gain. This make parts of the hike seem like more of a walk…but it was beautiful. The mountain played hide and seek most of the time, I didn’t see any animals, and only 2 people (on the last 1/2 miles of the trail back).

    Even for a week day I was very surprised (happily) how few people there were out today.

  7. Kyle From Silverton says:

    The commenting form has changed or is my violent temper causing me to go nuts and see buttons that don’t in reality exist?

  8. Jesse-Orchards says:

    I’m a little surprised to see a band of rain, albeit narrow, hitting the Coast.

    http://weather.cod.edu/cgi-bin/radarloop.pl?station=RTX&product=BREF1&loopdir=brefs

    What was looking like a weak, dry front seems to have a little more punch. Wondering if tomorrow will be cooler and cloudier than anticipated

    • Punxsutawney aka HIOPHIL says:

      There was some convection, perhaps mid level, over the Coast Range just before 6pm, and then around 715pm what looked like a narrow band of rain, some of which was clearly making it to the ground over the Coast Range.

      On the move at the time but definitely noticed both.

    • bgb41 says:

      Skies clearing now. Typical weak summertime front.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      It’s likely we’ll be socked in again by tomorrow morning, though.

  9. bgb41 says:

    Official NWS zone forecast next 7 days has been released. So now we are down to only one day at 70 and the rest in the 60’s…Hmm… Why am I not surprised at this? The spring 2011 cool cloudy curse continues into early summer.

    • W7ENK says:

      :Sigh: 😦

    • Beaverton Chris says:

      I am choosing to be optimistic and think that forecast is not accurate and that we will see temps somewhere between upper 60s and mid 70s the next week. If I didn’t, I’d go stir crazy.

  10. WEATHERDAN says:

    Partly Sunny and 64 degrees at 11 am. So we should make it up to the 70,s today. Next few days don,t look to be to bad either. upper 60,s to mid 70,s and mainly dry. Last June was a whole lot worse. We also could be having some of that 100 degree weather the east and south are having. No thanks. I’ll take 85 any day. 90 is ok, but 95 and above is just to warm for a lot of outside activities. The 16 day plot doesn’t show any hot weather. On the other hand it also doesn’t show any really cool or wet weather either. So pretty much normal. Normal is by the way 73. 83 will come in July and August. So when Mark calls for 72 degrees for a high that’s pretty much what you would expect for this time of year. We have plenty of warm summers without big June heat waves. And when we do get hot in June it is often toward the end of the month. So if it hits 76 today fine by me.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      You said Salem would hit 70 yesterday and they only hit 64.

    • Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

      Lets clear things up Jesse.WeatherDan never predicted it would hit 70. He said if it became P. Cloudy then it would make it to 70.

    • W7ENK says:

      Now now, no need to nit-pick, child…

      It’s 72 in Boardman right now, FWIW.

  11. jonathan says:

    just for fun. portland is having weather pretty much the same as fairbanks,ak.
    Today
    Jun 9
    Mostly cloudy with a shower 63°Lo 46° Tomorrow
    Jun 10
    Warmer with a shower possible 72°Lo 47°
    more Saturday
    Jun 11
    Rather cloudy 75°Lo 51°
    more Sunday
    Jun 12
    Chance of a shower 74°Lo 52°
    more Monday
    Jun 13
    A shower possible 74°Lo 51°
    more

  12. Austin (Cornelius) says:

    When’s the next time we could see some action here in the metro?

  13. Clear sunny morning with a low of 41.6°F.

  14. Steviewonder says:

    Is there any chance for some clear sky tomorrow night. Specifically right after sunset until midnight? Saturn is going to be visible during that time in the southwest sky. I personally have never had a problem viewing it even with light pollution in the metro area and would more than make up for us missing the light show tonight.

  15. bgb41 says:

    6/8/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:77 at AGNESS2( 247 ft) & ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft)
    Low: 54 at Rufus(185 ft) & DW6016 Milwaukie(171 ft) & DW6006 Troutdale(262 ft) & Cascade Locks St(151 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:33 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 23 at KLAMATH NWR (4531 ft ) & DESCHUTES PORTAB (5100 ft ) & Beatty (4320 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 44 degrees
    Beatty (67/23 ) (4320 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.54″ at CW5615 Heppner(2041ft)

  16. Jesse-Orchards says:

    People who are fans of the warmer 7-day will not like the 00Z runs!

  17. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    It seems the next 3 days we have a small chance of catching some auroral activity:

    http://www.auroraborealisyukon.com/auroracast/

    June 10th apparently represents the best chance. We will see! I sure do want to see some!

  18. Josh (Gresham) says:

    Awesome time lapse video

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      That is an awesome timelapse! You can definitely see that UFO structure.

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