Podcast #4 Posted

On this episode, the guys (Mark Nelsen & Brian MacMillan) talk about the devastating flooding along the Mississippi River and the increased chance of flooding here in the Northwest.  Plus, the guys talk about a strange smell in the weather center, introduce a new segment (Cities of the Week), and the guys talk to special guest, Oregon AMS President Bobby Corser about the local chapter and how you can get involved.

http://nwweatherpodcast.wordpress.com/2011/05/13/episode-4-mississippi-nw-flooding-and-oregon-ams-president-bobby-corser/

196 Responses to Podcast #4 Posted

  1. Cgavic sandy Oregon 1,100 ft says:

    Sunshine this evening

  2. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Notice a few showers on radar as well as modest vertical growth to the CU.

    Mesoanalysis
    As of 5 PM

    Upper Air Analysis
    850Mb: +1c
    500Mb: -27c

    Thermodynamics
    SBCAPE: 100-250J/kg
    SBCAP: NONE
    MUCAPE: 100-250J/kg
    LIFTED INDEX: ZERO
    MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES: 7C/km
    LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES: 8C/km

    There is a slight chance(5-10%), but if we are to see any isolated convection it’ll be from now until 7 PM.

    • Austin (Cornelius) says:

      Yeah, from what I’m seeing on radar is that all showers are starting to daminish.
      Darn. I had hi hopes too. : /

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Hmmmm no sooner I post my analysis and now we have a TINY red echo south of Beaverton.

    • Benjamin (West Salem) says:

      Does it look good for convection down here in Salem tomorrow?

  3. W7ENK says:

    Looks like a little something firing up in the hills West of Methford/Grass Pants. :mrgreen:

  4. ThunderCloud - North Plains says:

    Where is the link to lightning strikes?

  5. Josh (Gresham) says:

    All the sun here this morning and still partly cloudy conditions now make me think we’ll see some convection today. *fingers crossed*

  6. Kyle From Silverton says:

    And lots of puffy Cumulus galore around here.

  7. Kyle From Silverton says:

    Lots of sunshine here in the valley area since about noon. Perhaps I will get T and L tonight. (Thunder and Lightning)

  8. Punxsutawney (aka HIOPHIL) at work by Sunset High elev ~280' says:

    Good Snows in Eastern Oregon yesterday evening/night

    Burns was reporting snow overnight, and you can see the flakes flying in the Joseph weather cam at the end of yesterday’s weather movie.

    http://www.josephoregonweather.com/yesterdaymovie.html

    http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBNO.html

  9. Josh (Gresham) says:

    Heard them mention the shot of thunderstorms this morning on channel 8, any chance?

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      NWS thinks there is a chance.

      AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
      NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
      855 AM PDT MON MAY 16 2011

      MAIN EFFECT WILL BE WE WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH OF THESE SYSTEMS…UNDER THE MAIN COLD POOL ALOFT…AND MAY SEE OCCASIONAL SUN BREAKS FOR MORE
      DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY SHOWERS. MODEL INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUGGEST A DECENT POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ESPECIALLY SOUTH
      BUT ALSO NORTH. WITH WEAK SHEAR THERE WILL BE LITTLE ORGANIZATION… BUT SLOW MOVEMENT MIGHT LEAD TO LOCAL HEAVY RAIN.

  10. bgb41 says:

    5/15/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:65 at UMATILLA( 270 ft)
    Low: 53 at Blalock(280 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:28 at CRATER LAKE RIM(7050 ft)
    Low: 23 at CRATER LAKE RIM (7050 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 21 degrees
    CW8689 Burns (54/33 ) (4219 ft )
    MINAM LODGE-PORT (54/33) (3575 ft)
    CABIN LAKE (53/32) (4560 ft)
    CHRISTMAS VALLEY (53/32) (4360 ft)
    FORT ROCK (53/32) (4413 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.80″ at FISH CREEK(7900ft)
    1.55″ at CASE(3800ft)
    1.55″ at DW3605 Corbett(1755ft)

  11. bgb41 says:

    We were so overdue for a cool May 15th. I decided to do some research on the past few May 15 temps. Average is 67/47. Check this out
    2006 93/56 (+26 above average and a record High Temp)
    2007 86/52 (+19 above average)
    2008 87/54 (+20 above average)
    2009 72/45 (+5 above average)
    2010 74/50 (+7 above average)
    2011 57/50 (-10 below average & a 0.75″ record rainfall. We were WAY overdue for a cold May 15th

  12. Runrain says:

    Unusual weather in the southwest too. Check out Phoenix: high temps only in the mid-70’s midweek. Should be around 100.

  13. muxpux says:

    home for the weekend, glad we didnt stay in Puyallup this weekend, ugh.

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sew&sid=KPLU&num=72

    2.04″ of rain since 6 last night…wow.

  14. Jake-(Gresham) says:

    So when is Su.. I mean Spring going to start? 😦

  15. bgb41 says:

    Oregon & Washington 24-hour rainfall totals for all NWS stations here ending at 5pm. Bremerton, Wash leading the pack at 2.05″. On the east side, an amazing 1.96″ at Yakima and 1.86″ at Ellensburg in the deserts. I ended up with 0.94″ here at Battle Ground Lake.

    • Boydo3 N. Albany 500' says:

      We had (and still have)a nice day here. Only a sprinkle, no accum. Lots of sun. Got lots of work done in the garden. Sorry ’bout that to all yous up north.

    • AdamInAumsville says:

      We had some steadier rain this morning, but nothing too heavy at all. Ended up not being too bad of a day here!

    • bgmike says:

      really I have 1.26″ as of 8:50 for 24 hour total just south of the lake. must have been the downpours earlier that hit me.

    • bgb41 says:

      As of 9:00pm, My storm total is exactly 1.00″

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      I’ve had 1.38″ since it started late Saturday afternoon.

    • Derek Hodges says:

      My rain guage showed .91 for the storm but sometimes runs a touch high I think.

  16. bgb41 says:

    Oregon and SW Washington 24-hour rainfall map ending at 5:00pm map here:

    Absolutely amazing how Eugene & Corvallis got no rain at all from this.

  17. bgb41 says:

    18Z GFS – Adding INSULT TO INJURY after todays record rain event… Our 10 day dry spell on last nights 00z run is down to 3 days now with much cooler temperatures. The SPRING 2011 CURSE to continue. I cannot believe this. Also, this run gives us 11 days in a row with rain again starting next Saturday. 😦

    • Cherie in Vernonia says:

      UGH!

    • AdamInAumsville says:

      The GFS has been so over the place that I wouldn’t put a ton of stock in it. 00Z will be better…book it!

    • Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

      Now days I haven’t been looking too far beyond 2-3 days for a reliable forecast….The extended models are just all over the place and unable to nail down a pattern change in the long term. 😦

    • bgb41 says:

      Model riding at its finest this year.

  18. Kyle From Silverton says:

    During the 08 system before our power went off for good Dad was in bed and heard his computer in the living going on and off a bunch of times and realized what was happening but it was too late.

  19. Kyle From Silverton says:

    Funny thing is we lost electricity much MUCH longer in the 2008 ice storm then in 2003 or 2004 (whenever that was.) :p.

    Thanks for clearing that up Andrew. So we WERE in the most southern edge of it. hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm. (Insert Jeopardy thinking music here)

  20. bgmike says:

    Very strong downpour here

  21. 1.64″ rain last 24hr, still raining

  22. Joe says:

    I see some layers moving in different directions on the radar in NW Oregon, along with possible higher convection due to the sun coming out in between. Could this get interesting today?

  23. Kyle From Silverton says:

    I remember in 2003 we went to Costco to shop during the afternoon and the artic airmass came in with temps down to the low 20s by the time we got home.

  24. Kyle From Silverton says:

    Question that’s been bothering me: Why was the 2008 snow/ice systems warmer then in 2003 where I recorded a high of 24F and also had temps drop to the low 20s during the DAY?

    • Andrew Johnson says:

      At PDX and toward the gorge temps were in the low-mid 20s for highs a couple days during the 2008 snow/ice. Down here in Silverton we were on the very southern edge of the arctic air so our highs were a bit warmer. In January 2004 the arctic air was really well entrenched down here in the mid-valley when the overrunning precip came in. That’s why we had a couple days with highs in the mid-20s.

  25. bgb41 says:

    ‎0.59″ is todays rainfall record at PDX set on May 15th, 1942. This record is gonna get crushed today. Already at 0.66″ as of noon with half the day to go.

  26. bgb41 says:

    11am PNW rainfall report image with satellite.

    I have boxed in the area with heaviest totals. This is the area where the deformation band formed NE of the upper low off Northern California. Precip rotated northwestward into Puget sound overnight where nearly 4″ of rain has fallen in eastern King county last 18 hours or so. This is almost unprecedented for mid-May.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Models did incredibly well with the setup of the heavy rainfall showing it from Seattle SE to NE Oregon. Totally nailed the heavy rain in the desert areas from Ellensburg all the way to Maupin too.

  27. PaulB/Eugene says:

    It is so dry down here in Eugene…no measurable precipitation since May 11.

    • Andrew Johnson says:

      You must be becoming concerned with drought given the lack of recent rain fall. :). 0.31″ here on the southern edge of the rain band.

  28. Mike (Orchards 255') says:

    0.66″ rain since midnight and still coming down. 50 even degrees.

  29. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    I tried uploading my radar animations to Tinypic but that website limits the uploads to 5 MB each. If you all want to check out the data, send an email to me and I’ll share it.

    My email is: timmy_morar@yahoo.com

  30. Runrain says:

    Ugly day out there. And why doesn’t the weekend staff at KPTV update the 7 day? Wish I had that job – big bucks and no work. Just have to look good!

  31. Andrew Johnson says:

    0.52″ at PDX since midnight. The daily rainfall record should fall within the hour.

  32. PeterB (1170' Bellevue) says:

    1.3″ rain storm total thus far, still raining here

  33. Andrew Johnson says:

    As of 7am Burns, OR is reporting 34 with light snow.

  34. ryanintd says:

    The rain in the Dufur area actually closed 2 stages of the Oregon Trail Rally. They were saying it was pretty difficult and some drivers said they would rather be driving on snow. It was raining hard here in The Dalles (yesterday afternoon now) and i just ran to Safeway about 1/2 hour ago at 1am and it was coming down pretty good, with pretty big drops of rain like it was doing earlier.

  35. bgb41 says:

    5/14/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:83 at Bonifer(2051 ft)
    Low: 60 at Union Jct(2700 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:40 at KING MOUNTAIN(4000 ft)
    Low: 26 at DESCHUTES PORTAB (5100 ft ) & Mazama (4590 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 41 degrees
    DESCHUTES PORTAB (67/26 ) (5100 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    2.14″ at DW5444 Heppner(2680ft)

  36. Jesse-Orchards says:

    My “storm chase” wound up taking me out to Heppner, Oregon today. This place is ironically the site of the most deadly natural disaster in Oregon state history, the flash flood of June 14, 1903, which practically washed away the entire town. Wasn’t exactly hoping for a repeat of that, but we did hit a really nice complex of storms in that area.

    Ended up hanging out under the eaves of the Morrow County Courthouse watching about 20 minutes of near continuous thunder and lightning at one point. Easily one of the most intense shows I’ve ever seen, with lighting direcly overhead much of the time. The rain was prodigious as well and there was lots of localized street flooding. In fact on the way back part of Highway 74 along Willow Creek was under running water where it crossed a usually dry gulch (I believe it was called Sourdough Gulch). We had to wait it out for about a half hour until the water receded. The power of it was pretty incredible; the muddy, rapid water threw whole branches and stumps up onto the road surface which we helped clean off once things died down.

    I’ll try and remember to post some pics over on Western tomorrow.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Sounded pretty dramatic and it looked that way on radar for awhile, especially as you headed into Umatilla County. How was visibility in that area as far as how much of the storm you could see? Did you see any pronounced storm structure? Hail? I know at times there were indications of some mid-level rotation present on GR2AE. It sounds like my thoughts yesterday that you’d need to be east of Sherman, Wasco, Jefferson counties was about right, although Shaniko did see some storms as well.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Wow, that sounds like a tough storm! I can’t wait for the pictures!

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      We were in the thick of the storm, so it was kind of hard to see the forest for the trees so to speak. Didn’t get a great view of its exterior structure, just lots of dark, ominous looking low clouds dumping copious amounts of rain and producing near constant lighting. It was so dark in Heppner that it looked like late in the evening at 4pm, all of the street lights were on.

      On the drive there we did get some views of some really wicked looking clouds to the SE while driving along the Columbia near Arlington. Just from the look of those I could tell our storm chase would be fruitful. Arlington was also the warmest spot along the drive at 77 degrees. At the height of the thunderstorm in Heppner it was in the lower 50s.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      We didn’t see any hail either. I think the best dynamics for that were farther East yet.

  37. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Well, tomorrow morning I’ll have some radar analysis prepared for ya all…. Have a good night all!

  38. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    – 500mb Heights @ 13z May 14th, 2011 –

    The position of this low (approx. 134N – 44W) is a very typical setup for most thunderstorm events in the PNW region. If dipped a little farther south into the 127N – 34W area, then all of us would have seen these storms somewhere in Oregon. For a little bit of review, here is 500mb heights analysis from June 4th, 2009.

    A low can’t possibly be in a better location than shown in the above link. With an ESE flow aloft, storms tend to form over the cascades and then bleed off into the valleys (which is what many of us were hoping for today). Also, when we want nocturnal storms, this is the kind of set up we need.

    Anyhow, today it was fun tracking! And I am looking forward to the next event, as always 🙂

  39. bgb41 says:

    00Z @ PDX … Outstanding weather possibly coming for several days in a row starting midweek.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      LIKE

      Now if these storms would migrate to the west just a tad or two, that would make a perfect week!

  40. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    I hope Jesse had lots of fun chasing these storms, they looked really strong on radar! And hopefully he stayed safe as well 😉

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Too bad I just dont have time to go across the state to look at storms. Tempting, but…

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Thanks Timmy, I had a great time. 😀 See my post above.

  41. Derek Hodges says:

    The NAM and GFS to a lesser extent are showing heavy rain like we see in washington forming over the metro area tonight. Here is the MM5-NAM showing it,
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?mm5d2_e_pcp3+//72/3

  42. bgb41 says:

    900pm PNW rainfall report for NWS stations. 1.29″ at Walla Walla this evening. 0.37″ in the past hour 8-9pm at Yakima. I have put a red square around the two NWS stations with highest totals. The little numbers are rainfall during the past hour and the larger numbers are 24 hour totals.

  43. Walla Walla ended up with almost 2/3″ rain from the storm.

  44. Have never seen this:

    Hvy Drizzle, Hvy Snow Pellets, Mod Rain

    This is at Walla Walla

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pdt&sid=ALW&num=48

    I wonder if snow pellets means golf ball sized hail in this case?

  45. 0.18″ here in POURING right now.

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