Last week was pretty nice; in 8 days at PDX we only had .16″ of rain! That was the break from the rain. But starting Easter Morning the rain came back and today we saw daily rainfall records at Vancouver and Salem. That plus hail, some thunderstorms in spots, and almost a foot of snow in the mountains. We are within 1″ of our April rainfall record too. The wettest April was 1993 when 5.26″ fell at PDX. So what happened in May that year? I remember…something like 4.50″ of rain. Yuck…
Looking at the models tonight, there MIGHT be some hope for drier weather as we head into the first week of May. The 00z GFS is drier after Friday, more like the earlier ECMWF runs. I don’t hold high hopes for this solution since it’s the first GFS run to show a large scale change to more ridging on the West Coast.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen
On the 10 o’clock news Mark said that most of the clutter on the radar this time of year is migrating birds. Pretty cool I never knew that!
Except from tonight’s PDX NWS AFD
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SWING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WED NIGHT AND THU. 00Z NAM SHOWS 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -36 DEG C IN THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL …THIS WOULD BE RESPECTABLE EVEN IN MID WINTER. THE SHARP COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATE WED AFTERNOON…BRINGING WITH IT A BAND OF RAIN AND RAPIDLY LOWERING SNOW LEVELS IN THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS MAY BRIEFLY RISE JUST ABOVE CASCADE PASSES WED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT…BUT THEY WILL LOWER DRAMATICALLY INTO THE FOOTHILLS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU. 00Z NAM HINTS AT A BURST OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WITH THE FRONT…35-45 KT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. MAIN REASON FOR THIS IS THE NAM DEVELOPS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT…THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT BELIEVE WINDS WILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH…THE FOCUS TURNS TO MOUNTAIN SNOW AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE. WITH SUCH A COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT COMBINING WITH STRONG LATE APRIL SUN… INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL THURSDAY. LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALLOW ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO EASILY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
Finally some active weather to track for our region.
Excerpt* …. Why don’t we have an ‘Edit’ button.
Looks good to me! I’m ready for some action.
I’m debating as to which would be better: an abrupt shift to much, much warmer and drier weather or a more gradual fading out of the La Niña pattern.
On the one hand, give how chilly we’ve been it would be fun to see just how hot an 80- or 85-degree day might feel if it came suddenly. (Though what I was REALLY hoping for earlier this spring was a sudden jump in high temps from 50-ish up to the warm end of the 70s, just to see how uncomfortable it would feel.)
But at the same time I wouldn’t like it if we go straight from 50s / low 60s all the way up into the 80s and 90s, for two reasons: first of all, temps in the 80s and 90s are generally regarded as hot anyway, at least prior to the dog days period. It would be far more exciting for 70s to feel hot after a really cold pattern. Second, I like the springtime look and if we get too warm too soon, we may rush through that phase where everything is leafy green and quickly arrive at the summer look. (Fortunately this latter concern isn’t quite so problematic since the past week or so, it really HAS started to look like “High Spring.”)
Now that we’re on a roll and everything is behind in the plant world, I’d actually like the trend to continue so that we can pretend we live in a slightly colder climate (cue Jesse’s amusing sarcasm!)
Personally, I’d love an abrupt shift to warm weather. It would be like flying to the Islands without the high cost of air fare! 🙂
Ugh!!! I want to see some lightnin’!!!!! I want to hear that growl of thunder!!! Where is it??? Not here! 😡
Hoping for them too much makes them not show up. Have an empty mind for a few minutes and see what it looks like outside. It works.
Hmm…..nope it’s actually sunny now. So your tactic fails. Epically fails. 😡
On my move back to Hillsboro this June, I may have to purchase a kayak or else I’ll find myself knee-deep in water!!! (Sarcasm of course)
And I’ll need a metal umbrella too. Those ice chunks will kill ya! 😉
I don’t know how Timmy but your comments the last 30 min appeared on Mark’s facebook page….Now the blog will really get popular with this kind of exposure 🙂
Oh really? LOL
But I did type in “sarcasm” so if I say theres a tornado 2 feet away from my house they shouldn’t believe that 🙂
In 1993 we may have seen a lot of rainfall, but in May 1993 didn’t we have a couple episodes of severe thunderstorms? Hopefully the overall pattern this year repeats that, that would be nice. We need a litter more excitement running through our suffering veins.
Here are some storm reports in the month of May 1993:
May 12th, 1993
May 19th, 1993
We had several days of T storms in the Valley in mid May of ’93. And we were caught in the Deschutes canyon just up stream from Billy Chinook every afternoon for 4 days in a row. Just when the bugs really began to hatch and fishing was hot, we had to run for cover.
Too bad I was only 1/2 year old when this happened… And boy it sure did look like things were active, according to the Wunderground monthly history:
Even in April there were a lot. Let alone KPDX recording this many days, that’s impressive.
Had a pretty heavy rain/hail shower here on the portland/gresham border. Sun looks to be coming out again, hoping for more fun.
Okay, seriously, I’m sick and tired of this…
NWS Portland – SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
UNSEASONABLY COLD STORM EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY…
heavy rain/hail shower and pretty gusty winds in Battle Ground right now
Drier the normal this sumemr? Not like we really get that much rain to begin with during summer months.
From the Oregon Dept of Agriculture/Pete Parsons.
Discussion/Forecast: A strong La Niña (cooler than normal tropical Pacific Ocean sea-surface
temperatures) peaked around the start of the year and is continuing to weaken. Negative seasurface
temperature anomalies are decreasing. Most computer models are indicating that ENSONeutral
(near normal) conditions are likely by June and will continue through this coming summer.
Computer model forecasts, from the NCEP coupled forecast system model (CFS), are far less
certain, regarding the tropical Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperatures, for this coming winter.
The CFS forecasts range from weak El Niño to moderate La Niña conditions, by the end of 2011,
with continuing ENSO-Neutral conditions the most likely scenario through 2011.
The Following predictions were based on historical weather data from the May – July periods in
1917, 1971, 1974, 1989, and 2008.
• Increasingly variable weather conditions, in the analog years, decreases the strength of the
“climate signal” during the forecast period (this is common for late spring and summer).
• Temperatures will likely remain cooler-than-normal, early in the forecast period, with a
trend towards warmer-than-normal conditions by the second half of July.
• An above average snowpack and cool spring should make for slower-than-normal spring
melt-off of the winter snowpack, with near to above average streamflows statewide.
• Look for a transition to drier-than-normal conditions, for most of the state, by early summer.
You just made that up to give us hope 🙂 i’m kidding of course. By August we will look back and have a vague memory of our wet winter/spring. I say mother nature can tease us more like she did on Saturday. Just more days in a row would be nice.
Since the winter forecast issued b this office was a bit of a miss, I am not sure putting much stock in this forecast is wise. Bottome line Mr Parsons forecast is little more than a guess
There are small T-storms trying to build in the area with quite a bit of sunshine now.
I did not say there is blue sky either but for the 45 mins there is sunshine.
12Z GFS is coming out and already showing 70’s to low 80’s for several days in PDX.
Yup, just two weeks away. Better start making my waterskiing plans now!
There is only one rule! NEVER EVER LET IT COOL!
Hot Chocolate from Polar Express.
Actually it shows a change about May 1st. Thats about 5-6 days away.
18z gfs.. Warm weather is gone now. Looks like my comment earlier this month of spring 2011 being the worst ever for wet and cool may come true after all Jesse.
Lets go play in the snow.
headin north to work up in puyallup for the week, hoping thursday is as exciting as the SEA AFD is hinting at.
Last nights GFS run has snow at my elevation Thursday am. Can’t wait to see what May brings… Lets just write off summer, and head right into fall/winter.
Thems fightin’ words!
4/25/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary
High:61 at CW3932 Central P(1290 ft) & DW6470 Ontario(2150 ft) & Ontario Municipa(2188 ft) & Echo(680 ft)
Low: 47 at KF7MWX Gold Beac(52 ft) & BROOKINGS(79 ft) & DW1265 Newport(164 ft)
High:26 at Mount Hood Meado(6601 ft)
Low: 18 at HOWARD Mt Howard (8150 ft )
Largest Diurnal Change: 23 degrees
ALKALI FLAT (60/37 ) (2495 ft )
DW6803 Ashland (58/35) (1890 ft)
1.73″ at Mount Hood Meado(5249ft)
1.71″ at DW0237 Lees Camp(699ft)
1.60″ at SOUTH FORK BULL(2630ft)
1.43″ at PACCTY Pacific C(253ft)
1.43″ at HORSE CREEK(3402ft)
BG Lake rainfall today: 0.70″
April total: 6.23″
00Z GFS – Now showing much nicer conditions arriving around May 1st. Could this be our first real week of spring? I am not buying it yet since this is really the first run in a couple of days to show this improvement.
I wish I knew what all of this means :I Haha. this makes me feel dumb when I talk to my friends about weather.
I wish I could understand it as well Nick. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?
Yeah right… this cool wet crap will last through June, just like last year.
It could last all summer.
Yeah, most likely.
1953-1957 Portland only had 18 days over 90 in a 5-year span. I am wondering if we are heading for another episode like that?