You REALLY need to get outside and enjoy the weather tomorrow for two reasons: it’ll probably be the warmest day of the Spring so far, and it’s the only warm and sunny day in our 7 Day forecast!
Today we hit 64 degrees, actually a notch or two warmer than I expected. The downsloping wind coming off the Cascades did the trick late this afternoon, warming the lower atmosphere nicely.
That offshore flow continues through tomorrow morning, then the wind goes calm in the afternoon. That plus continuous sunshine is the perfect setup for maximum heating. We kept the 70 degree high in the forecast for tomorrow. My “magic chart” shows a high tomorrow somewhere between 68 and 74 degrees, basically in the past these conditions have produced those high temps.
As a result, I expect to spend ALL of tomorrow pulling weeds, spreading mulch, riding my bike, relaxing on the south side of the deck, and giving those little chicks and ducklings another field trip out into the garden.
Enjoy the weather!
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen
Can anyone show me the new link (if any) to the site that used to work at this address http://www.weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.ecmwf850t.html ? Much appreciated.
We had very strong winds between 8:00 and 9:00 this morning in Mill City/Gates. The power was out for 1 1/2 hours. Just came back on. Still blustery but not too bad now. Rain has stopped.
NWS Portland – WIND ADVISORY CANCELED for Clark County.
http://inws.wrh.noaa.gov/weather/alertinfo/2220495
I’m willing to bet we’re next… BUST!
Looks like the low just moved across Portland, ya?
BTW, winds gusting 40s and 50s are just above the valley. Check out some of the sites in the Cascade Foothills. 52mph for Horse Creek RAWS is pretty impressive.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/mwmap.php?map=pqr
Come on, sun!!! Mix those winds down…
Getting a little blustery..
Best I could find. Not very windy to me.
GFS has been downplaying this whole thing, I’d just wait for the wind because it will come.
Wind, wind, wind! Monday morning and pounding rain.
This is a pretty cool image:
“Internet Explorer Cannot Display Webpage”
Try re-uploading 🙂
Not working for me either.
Do you have Tinypic or any image uploader?
I think it was an issue on UofW’s end…couldn’t get into any of their sites for a little while…
I think this thing is just weird. Breezy, yes. But high winds? Storm is where? We’ve got a very nice sunny and breezy morning here.
NWS could be a few hours off, because im getting high winds here, just wait.
lucky…grey, wet, and breezy here…looks like I ought to be sticking the Thanksgiving turkey in the oven this morning…
Had a 36mph gust at 7:53 am
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?wfo=&sid=KLMT&num=168&raw=0
Also getting sunny here too, that dry slot must be settling in through a good chunk of the region.
Big break in the clouds, sun coming out lots of blue sky. 49.5F, light southerly wind.
So what is the latest
PaulO’s Observation a couple below looks good to me.
Nice heavy rain overnight and currently out here. KHIO finally above the April monthly rainfall average, and perhaps over 4″ total here before long.
Correction 3″ total for KHIO
6.12″ at BG Lake in April now as of 9am.
Hope these high winds are coming soon.
My observation: (light) winds and radar show the surface low just west of Salem moving ENE. If it intensifies and tirns more north quickly we get strong South winds (doubtful in PDX). Otherwise breezy SW later.
Starting to get a little breezy here. Nothing significant yet. The calm before the storm?
Why is Andy saying only 40 here and not 60-70 at the coast?! I thought that was the plan!!!
Ugh. I hope I go to school and see the oh so rare flicker of the lights, hope I do get that flicker during my speech.
So far only thing moving branches in my front yard is squirrels
Will there be another model run before this low hits the pdx metro area?? Also what are the possibilities that pxd/vanc also get issued a high wind warning?? I homeschool my kids and I’m trying to decide if I want them to go to resource classes or stay home to track the storm and have a science day. Either way it will be an exciting day. Now that my tree is out of the way I can say bring it on mother nature. I can’t wait to see how it plays out.
Thanks Rob for the updates tonight. Hopefully you also got enough rest to enjoy the storm in the morning.
URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
319 AM PDT MON APR 25 2011
.A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE COAST IS PROJECTED TO MOVE ASHORE OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST THEN TRACK TO THE NORTH EAST THIS MORNING. EXPECT A FAIRLY SUDDEN
SURGE OF WIND TO PUSH ONSHORE WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING…EVEN AFFECTING INLAND AREAS BY MID MORNING. WITH LEAVES DEVELOPING ON TREES AND VERY SOGGY GROUND…TREES AND POWER LINES
WILL BE MORE PRONE TO BEING DOWNED BY THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.
CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…SALEM…MCMINNVILLE
319 AM PDT MON APR 25 2011
…HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PORTLAND HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* WINDS: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 MPH.
* TIMING: STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING…THEN EASE BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY BLUSTERY AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: SALEM…MCMINNVILLE
NWS AFD says the low may track more due west-east and that’s why they issued a High Wind Warning south of Portland, but kept Portland in the Wind Advisory for gusts to 50mph.
…WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TH GREATER PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER AREA…
A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.
* WINDS: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH.
* TIMING: WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY
MORNING…THEN REMAIN VERY BLUSTERY AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: HILLSBORO…PORTLAND…OREGON CITY…GRESHAM…TROUTDALE…VANCOUVER…BATTLE GROUND…CAMAS…WASHOUGAL
Last 2 frames on WV Loop look like it is trying to turn northeast…. Need another hour of images.
Rob
Do the WV frames show the low moving more northerly or heading into the central Oregon coast? What is your prediction?
All right, I’m going to put aside temperature and phenology for a night or two, to concentrate on this winter-like storm coming in.
Forecast is for sustained winds of 35-45mph along the coast with gusts near 70. And only slightly less wind for the Willamette Valley. Heavy snow – perhaps 18″ or more – over the next 2 or 3 days for the Cascades. Are you sure it’s April 25 and not November 25?
Check out 2 KM WV imagery
Truly cannot believe I am seeing this in Late April. This is rapidly undergoing cyclogenesis now. Very noticeable dry slot near the center.
Here is the loop
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/loopsat.php?wfo=pqr&area=west&type=wv&size=2
It looks like it wants to bomb right offshore, but wondering how far north this pulls the low, or if its far enough north.
4/24/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary
Warmest:
High:66 at Echo( 680 ft)
Low: 47 at 12 different stations
Coldest:
High:29 at CRATER LAKE RIM(7050 ft)
Low: 18 at & CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft )
Largest Diurnal Change: 36 degrees
Nelson (61/25 ) (2560 ft )
Heaviest Rainfall:
0.83″ at DW0237 Lees Camp(699ft)
I’d like to stay up and watch everything develop but I need to sleep!
*Evening analysis*
00z WRF-GFS shows a tightly compact low around 995-997mb making landfall into Astoria around 11 AM, and traversing inland around 1 PM. A tight pressure gradient pulls inland directly south of the low extending southward from about Astoria-North Bend or Portland to Roseburg. Looking closely extrapolating the isobars shows a peak PDX-EUG gradient of 7-9mb. This would produce gusts 40-50+mph. Windcast model/cross section is not alarming at all. 00Z MM5-NAM is a little more bullish showing 40kts down to 980Mb and 50kts down to 925Mb. Keep in mind NWS has mentioned and are siding with the EURO basing most of their guidance and forecast which is deeper with the low. With that being said one can assume the gradient would be even tighter perhaps 8-10mb and IF that is indeed the case I could a realistic threat of gusts 50-60mph in the Willamette Valley. I checked Mesoanalysis and winds aloft are well over 120mph already. Any mixing as the low makes landfall and 1-3 hours after it has pushed inland could easily lead to localized gusts 50+mph. The real wild card is if any convection develops in that same time frame there could be some real damaging gusts not to mention the likelihood of an added sheared environment could produce a cold core funnel or a weak tornado.
WRF sure is downplaying this whole event. (IF there is an event!)
This low is positioned in the perfect spot for severe winds, however, WRF does not feel like giving it a very deep millibar reading….
Regardless of this model nonsense, satellite imagery, as Rob posted below, is very impressive. This is a fast-strengthening low.
Nice curl already, didn’t see anything like this about 1-2 hours ago.
From what I’m reading sounds like it’s very rapid and developing that way. Can we have recent updates? I love windstorms. Hoping for outages.
There’s a chance I am pulling an alnighter, so I might do so with WV loop analysis and images.
I hope for outages as well. Nothing else gets my blood pumping more than this, and thunderstorms too. I’ll take those albino donkeys any day!
Okay I just looked at WV Loop and WOW. Rapid and I mean Rapid developing low offshore. It’s really opening up, rapid darkening, and dry slot emerging.
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/loopsat.php?wfo=pqr&area=nw&type=wv&size=4
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
943 PM PDT SUN APR 24 2011
NORTH OREGON COAST-CENTRAL OREGON COAST-
COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-
CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-LOWER COLUMBIA-
GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-
NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-
UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES-WILLAPA HILLS-
SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ASTORIA…CANNON BEACH…TILLAMOOK…
LINCOLN CITY…NEWPORT…FLORENCE…VERNONIA…JEWELL…TRASK…
GRANDE RONDE…TIDEWATER…SWISSHOME…ST. HELENS…CLATSKANIE…
HILLSBORO…PORTLAND…OREGON CITY…GRESHAM…SALEM…
MCMINNVILLE…DALLAS…EUGENE…CORVALLIS…ALBANY…HOOD RIVER…
CASCADE LOCKS…MULTNOMAH FALLS…SANDY…
SILVER FALLS STATE PARK…SWEET HOME…GOVERNMENT CAMP…
DETROIT…SANTIAM PASS…VIDA…LOWELL…COTTAGE GROVE…
MCKENZIE BRIDGE…OAKRIDGE…WILLAMETTE PASS…PARKDALE…ODELL…
COLDWATER RIDGE VISITORS CENTER…MOUNT ST. HELENS…FRANCES…
RYDERWOOD…RAYMOND…LONG BEACH…CATHLAMET…LONGVIEW…KELSO…
CASTLE ROCK…STEVENSON…SKAMANIA…VANCOUVER…BATTLE GROUND…
WASHOUGAL…TOUTLE…ARIEL…COUGAR
943 PM PDT SUN APR 24 2011
…STRONG LATE SEASON STORM SYSTEM TO PACK A WALLOP FOR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON MONDAY…
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND WELL ORGANIZED NORTH PACIFIC JET STREAM
IS CAUSING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND SOMETIME
MONDAY MORNING…BRINGING A ROUND OF STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST AND
EVEN INLAND AREAS AS WELL.
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THE OREGON COAST WITHIN A
COUPLE HOURS OF SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING…WITH A SUDDEN INCREASE
FROM RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TO MUCH STRONGER AND
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GUST UP
TO 60 TO 70 MPH ALONG THE COAST…ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BEACHES AND
COASTAL HEADLANDS. STRONG GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES AS WELL.
THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD INLAND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE NEAR
ASTORIA OR SOUTHERN WASHINGTON MONDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS
LOW…ALONG WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT…WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ALL THE WAY INTO THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND CASCADES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO
50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND THE
PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER METRO AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON…WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL
AND PARTICULARLY GUSTY WINDS.
THIS STORM WILL ALSO COME WITH QUITE A BIT OF SNOW FOR THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES. EXPOSED ELEVATIONS OF THE
CASCADES…ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON
CASCADES…WILL COMBINE PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AT
TIMES. THIS WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR
THE HIGHER SKI RESORT ELEVATIONS MONDAY. THE CASCADE PASSES WILL
LIKELY SEE A LITTLE LESS WIND AND SNOW THAN HIGHER ELEVATIONS…
BUT TRAVEL WILL NONETHELESS BECOME DIFFICULT ACROSS THE CASCADES
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
VISIT http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV…LISTEN TO YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO…OR
TUNE INTO YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET FOR THE LATEST UPDATES
ON THIS STORM.
Just read NWS AFD and holy pancakes folks 😮
All-nighter for Rob?
What do you think about this
How epic is this going to be?
Sounds…. potentially damaging for sure 50-60mph I’d guess. The mixing could be the real wildcard. The fact the low is deepening even more than 00z models showed which JUST initialized? Is impressive sounds to me like rapid cyclogenesis nearly. I’ll have to look at WV Loop shortly after I’m done tracking and providing analysis for Dallas, TX. Fort Worth has a damaging hail storm moving towards them Golfballs to Softballs!
Wow Rob thanks for keeping us informed! I wouldn’t mind a big burst of wind to finish out April.. but trees are leafed out so I guess we will see what we get.
I know Rob knows this but for those who don’t models do typically underestimate storms but a large underestimation at initialization says that it will be a lot stronger than they think meaning this will be a fairly potent storm. I am home now so I hope tomorrow will be exciting.
Imagine that. My own echo. That’s what I’ve been trying to say for a long time.
who cares if we are having record number of 60 degree days in 40 or more years. This means nothing for us this time of year. When we start talking epic record breaking cold and snow in the months that it counts like nov-feb then we can get excited. There has to be a way to find out why we can’t get these record cold anomiles in dec or jan.
December 2008: Snowiest December on record at PDX.
December 2009: Earliest stretch of sub-14 degree lows on record.
November 2010: Third strongest November arctic blast in NW history.
February 2011: One of the biggest late season arctic blasts in NW history, PDX sets a new late season cold benchmark with a temp of 18 on 2-26 and many areas see snow.
What were you talking about again?
Here’s another comparison.
Ashley, I guess its not significant to you whats happening, but I think its pretty amazing what has transpired the first 4 months of this year having only 5 days in the 60’s. This has never happened in Portland Airport history. I find that worth mentioning since is it somewhat historic.
Ashley, every handful of years we do hit these anomalies. January 2004 + December 2008 were both very impressive for our area.
Third strongest, Jesse?
1896
1900
1911
1955
1985
All were as strong or stronger.
GFS seems to ignore this approaching leaving it all off the coast. And SLP is nowhere near impressive. BUT 00z is coming!
Only 00z can tell us whats ahead. Hope its not a bust like it is 80.5997% of the time.
This bust will make it number 80.9999%. 😉
High Wind Warning Coast and NOW for Coast Range – Coast http://inws.wrh.noaa.gov/weather/alertinfo/2211457 – Coast Range – http://inws.wrh.noaa.gov/weather/alertinfo/2211364
Wind Advisory South Valley (All of the Willamette Valley Now under a advisory – http://inws.wrh.noaa.gov/weather/alertinfo/2211351
Wind Advisory
http://inws.wrh.noaa.gov/weather/alertinfo/2211416
Gusts to 50… if so that is very impressive for Late April. Thanks, Ben for posting this.
BTW, do you still work at McDonalds?
Looks like my location is just out of the zone. I looked at the MM5 and didn’t see anything particularly strong. NWS must have a better 8 ball.
@ Rob Yes Been There Almost a Year
Looks like the whole Valley is in the Advisory zone. I’ll believe it when I see it.
A no laptop outside advisory has been issued by me for ben. 🙂
Just had heavy pea-sized hail here. I was not expecting that.
I remember in late April 1996 we had a high wind warning for gusts to 65. That one didn’t happen but interesting to note we’ve had one this late in the season.
Sorry for being off topic but
Rob,
Larry Bird and Michael Jordan did much more than that. They had triple doubles and buzzer beaters in the Finals, made game winning steals, and put up 45+ points on many occasions.
Larry Bird did this after numerous surgeries in 1992, you might remember it
I bet bird would wear his pants that high still if he played today haha
being at the game yesterday watching the last few minutes it did not seam real just the mere fact coming back from so many down.
I’m more than aware of that, but compared to what B Roy did it is on a different scale. Anyhow…..
Larry Bird didn’t score 72 points in the game you posted from youtube fool. (it ranks, believe it)
72/4=18 .
Who said anything about 72 points dude? Bird’s career high was 60 and MJ’s was 69.
***Four Month Least 60 Record at Portland Airport****
In 62 years of records at PDX (1949-2011), never have there been so few 60 degree days between Jan 1st and April 30th. This spring could be a once in over 100 year rarity for our area. The old record low number of days is 9 set in 1955. Currently in 2011 we are at an astonishingly low of 5 days with only 6 more days in the month. If we don’t hit 60 four times this week the long standing record will be broken at the end of this week. At this point its very likely. See photo below of 2011 and the other top 5 years.
*Possible high winds tomorrow for the Coast and POSSIBLY the Willamette Valley*
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
236 PM PDT SUN APR 24 2011
.SHORT TERM…THE SYSTEM FROM THIS MORNING WILL BE MOVING EAST THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING SHOWERS.
THE ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT FAST MOVING SYSTEM RIDING ON 170 KT ZONAL JET WHICH ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS EMBEDDED WITH THIS SYSTEM. BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) SATELLITE IMAGERY HAVE SHOWN BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES FROM ABOUT 140W TO 160W BETWEEN 30N AND 40N. MODELS TAKE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA…BUT PEAK FORECAST TPW AROUND 0.8 INCHES ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING. THIS MEANS A WET PERIOD BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR THE CASCADES AFTER A BRIEF BUMP UP OF SNOW LEVELS TO BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FEET LATE TONIGHT… SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO BELOW PASS LEVELS ON MONDAY… AND TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE DURING THE DAY MONDAY…THOUGH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TRAILING UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH. SNOW DECREASES TUESDAY AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN AND THE ONSHORE FLOW EASES.
ANOTHER ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM FOR MONDAY IS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. AS THIS SYSTEM STRENGTHENS …IT WILL LIKELY CURL NORTHWARD TO NEAR ASTORIA. STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST…AND POSSIBLY INLAND
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ONSHORE. FOR NOW HAVE PREDICATED THE FORECAST ON THE ECMWF TRACK AND DEPTH OF THE LOW…AND THE CANADIAN GEM AND NAM12 MODELS ARE NOT TOO MUCH DIFFERENT. THE GFS IS WEAKER BUT TRENDING TOWARD THE ECMWF MODEL. SO HAVE GONE WITH A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE COAST AND A SPECIAL STATEMENT FOR NEAR ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE INTERIOR…BUT HIGH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. *THE INLAND VALLEYS COULD ALSO APPROACH WARNING CRITERIA IF THE ECMWF WORKS OUT.*
High Wind Watch
http://inws.wrh.noaa.gov/weather/alertinfo/2204867