Cold Spring Record Ahead?

After looking up all the numbers, I can confirm that we are now in 2nd place for the latest “first 60 degree temperature”  here in Portland.  Only one other year (1955) did we go beyond March 22nd with no 60 degree temp.  That year it finally hit the magic “six zero” on March 27th.  SO, if we make it beyond this Sunday without hitting it, we’ll be breaking a record similar to last year’s “latest first 80 degree temperature” in June.  Of course it’s not really a “record”, but a cold milestone to be celebrated with a warm drink, hot tub visit, or large bonfire I think.

Hopefully this isn’t just the beginning of a long and cold La Nina spring…we just did that 3 years ago, and folks are still cranky about the wet end to last spring and the chilly summer.  But that IS how we get averages…warm years even out with chillier years.  And the odds are definitely stacked towards a cooler than average spring ahead.  Luckily we don’t tend to average wetter than normal.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

102 Responses to Cold Spring Record Ahead?

  1. Paul D says:

    I love records like this. It makes up for those hideous 100 degree records and warmer than normal winter days. Hopefully we don’t hit 60 until April! 🙂

    • David B says:

      “Hopefully we don’t hit 60 until April!”

      You might almost get that wish, although Thursday the 31st has an NWS forecast high of 61.

      The record for latest spring 60+ degree temperature seems a lock, however. Hasn’t happened yet, and with an NWS forecast high of 52 today, it’s not going to happen today, which is the previous record for the latest 60+-degree high at PDX.

    • LARRY BLECKINGER says:

      I agree with u Paul D…..I would love to have a summer like last year Perfect for this 50yr. old!!! LOL

  2. Christopher in Central Vancouver says:

    I wish we had a radar in Bend for t-storm purposes.

  3. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Had to take a nap from being sick earlier in the day (binged on soda, silly me), and to my surprise I actually didn’t miss a whole lot. Virtually nothing went on in SW Oregon in comparison to areas up north where there existed a little more lightning.

    Tomorrow there does appear to be an equal chance (maybe even greater) for storms…. We will just have to see how this plays out. Well we already did sorta have a lot, this is only March afterall! So far this month is turning out to be more like a May than a March.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      More like May than March?

      Plese elaborate, Timmy.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      I think he is speaking in terms of convection and severe warnings that we’ve already seen. I would have to agree with him.

  4. *BoringOregon676'* says:

    AT 633 PM PDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER CENTRAL MARION COUNTY…OR ABOUT 16 MILES
    NORTHWEST OF DETROIT…MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. OTHER LOCATIONS
    IMPACTED BY THIS THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 715 PM PDT INCLUDE RURAL
    SOUTHERN CLACKAMAS COUNTY AND RURAL CENTRAL CLACKAMAS COUNTY. SMALL
    HAIL…HEAVY RAIN…GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH…AND DANGEROUS
    LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.

  5. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Wow. The storm southeast of Scotts Mills has rotation with it and rather persistent. Viewing the loop you can see how it wobbles and when looking at Base or Storm Velocities you can definitely see it! Impressive!

  6. Kyle From Silverton says:

    Eye wish there be a way for Mark to do a quick scan every few days on the blog for behavior instead of just shutting off the blog period.

    If Mark sees an argument/fight he can follow the bread crumbs and then go after the OP.

  7. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Fairly healthy looking storm east of Stayton moving north-northwest towards Molalla. I am detecting lightning on AM radio.

  8. muxpux says:

    30 this morning, 59 for a high, not bad today up here in Longview. just starting to sprinkle now. have to wait to see if we “officially” hit 60. that would be an impressice 30 degree swing.

  9. GeekyMominCamas says:

    So excited to see 60+ next week on the 7 day! Everyone cross your fingers, knock on wood and whatever else you can think of, quick!

  10. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Fairly nice t-storm just southeast of Sweet Home. Nice amount detected too! http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/lightning2.jpg

  11. WEATHERDAN says:

    60 in Salem today. 55 with a very light rain now.

  12. jeff says:

    Hit 64 today outside of Woodburn.

  13. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Nice little bugger to the NE of Shady Cove…

  14. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Look at the convection fire up over SW Oregon…one lonely lightning strike too, so far.

    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?vis1km_west_full+6

  15. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Storms are firing east of Roseburg now…

  16. Kyle From Silverton says:

    How bout 69!?

  17. bobby says:

    I think PDX will hit 59 today!

  18. Looks like its going to top of here at 58.

  19. Jethro says:

    Ahhhh… 60 feels nice. Don’t think PDX is going to make it though…

  20. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    I’d love this pattern in July or August. Great SE flow…some divergence.

  21. Austin-Felida says:

    it is so windy out here im tired of hearing it lol

  22. bgb41 says:

    ****FOX 12 Blog Discussion Facebook Group********

    There are now 50 weather bloggers in the group.

    If anyone is interested in joining the group see below link:

    http://www.facebook.com/home.php?sk=group_158533057538771&ap=1

  23. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    There is also a possibility of convection tomorrow as well… I’ll have to look into that.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      According to the latest SREF run, wind shear sticks around for the next 48 hours or so. And with this low in the most favorable position as well as warming temperatures, storms seems like a realistic possibility, even for tomorrow too.

  24. Jesse-Orchards says:

    12Z EURO isn’t buying the idea of a late-month warm spell, FWIW.

    • Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

      Ya it’s been very consistent with a trough over us or very nearby.

  25. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    It was 33F for a low this morning in K Falls, I always wonder how much lower elevations can be colder than I am.

    Anyways looking forward to seeing some convection “pop-corning” up this afternoon.

  26. Jesse-Orchards says:

    PDX is making me a little nervous. They spiked 10 degrees in the past hour and are up to 54 at noon. Will they hit 60 today? If there is a type of setup that can produce surprise warmth, this is it.

    Those who want to see the “latest first 60” record fall better hope for some thick mid-level clouds to move in the rest of the day.

  27. bgb41 says:

    12Z GFS @ Troutdale… Is spring arriving next week?

    Much warmer this run thank goodness..2 days in the 70’s and 3 in the 60’s. April 1st is the average first 70 deg reading at Portland. This run is now showing our first 60 of the year on 3/30 and our first 70 of the year 3/31.

    • k5mitch says:

      my fingers are crossed…

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Beauty of it is that we’d still break the record for latest first 60, then get some nice warmth a few days later.

      I’m not buying it yet, though. The EURO shows us staying in a troughy pattern, and this is the first GFS run to show a ridge at the beginning of the month, at least within the semi-believable range.

    • bgb41 says:

      Actually there were several GFS runs around last weekend that pointed to a brief warm spell around the end of March. Then last few days that warmth went away. So this is NOT the first run to show this. I do agree with you that the 18Z/00Z could easily erase this current optimistic trend.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Yes, last weekend there may have been a few. But I said “in the semi-believable range” last weekend was March 19-20, the 31st-2nd is not a believeable range on the models at that point.

  28. Currently 39° after an overnight low of 30…Calm…With another low approaching northern California, the east winds should pick up again.

  29. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    East wind just broke through here. Humidity went from 78 to 62%!

  30. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    One thing about March frost…it is fleeting! The sun does a quick job of melting it away!

  31. bgb41 says:

    Mark is shutting down the blog today. There is an open facebook group that anyone can join during the next 10 days. There are currently 45 weather bloggers in the group at this time and everyone is invited.

    “Fox 12 Blog Discussions”
    http://www.facebook.com/home.php?sk=group_158533057538771&ap=1

  32. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    29.6 here for the low, but have picked up a NE wind now.

  33. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Lots of downslope component occurring over the Clark County foothills as seen on the mesowest page. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/mwmap.php?map=colriver
    It is going to be a windy one today probably spreading out to cover most of the Portland/Vancouver metro area.

  34. Christopher in Central Vancouver says:

    32 degrees and very frosty this morning. I live on the north side of the bluff near Southwest Washington Med Center. Mildly sheltered I guess.

  35. CBC-Tech (100ft) Washougal says:

    Before Mark goes off for a little time off and the blog is in a “read only” state, has this been posted yet? Found it very interesting…

    http://weatherspark.com/#!graphs;q=Portland,OR,+United+States

    Check out the main page for details: http://weatherspark.com

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      I’m not sure it has, but I bookmarked it! Thanks for sharing.

    • CBC-Tech (100ft) Washougal says:

      Click on any station in the map and then play with the controls in the right window and see the trends… Fascinating. ;o)

    • CBC-Tech (100ft) Washougal says:

      P.S. Found it interesting to see all the data from the blizzard of 78 (having grown up on the east coast). I remember the seemingly endless “snow days” from school back then.

    • k5mitch says:

      I posted it last week I think, maybe 2 weeks ago.

    • MamaReen says:

      @CBC-Tech, what part of the East Coast? I am from Massachusetts. And my husband and I were just talking about the blizzard of ’78 just the other day…

  36. Jesse-Orchards says:

    Down to 28 here this morning, a lot colder than I expected.

    Looks like PDX is just a couple degrees off a new record low for the date. They’ve been down to 33 as of 5am. With a couple more hours of cooling they could break or tie the record of 31, set in 1954 and 1951.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      IF the east wind doesn’t break through, yeah it seems possible. It’s developing here now and I see it’s near 30mph in Gresham and areas in Troutdale above the river.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Ah crud muffins! I’m up to 39.2 now! Stupid late March mixing. Darn east wind fuzzle sticks!

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      40.5 and rising… Poo n stuff!

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      42.8 with a very breezy NE-E wind.

    • bgb41 says:

      745am temps Clark Co

      27 in Brush Prairie
      29 Downtown Battle Ground
      43 BG Lake
      46 Crawford (1.3 mile East of Lake)

    • Sifton says:

      LOL, I love how you always put Crawford on there. I always thought it was just an old RR stop.

    • bgb41 says:

      Yeah that Crawford seems to get lots of east wind. Its off 202nd avenue and is usually the first station to see the mountain wave / cross cascade type of east winds. Not to mention that its just over a mile from Battle Ground Lake.

  37. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    305 AM PDT WED MAR 23 2011

    .SHORT TERM…WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST LOCATED AROUND 40N 127W…AND IR SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AROUND 40N 128W. THIS VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL SPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OREGON AS IT NEARS THE COAST THIS MORNING…BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SHOWERS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW POCKETS OF SUNSHINE LATE THIS MORNING. MODELS STILL INDICATE MARGINAL INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR OREGON
    THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

    WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT LOW DEVELOPING IN THE GOA AROUND 54N 150W. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NW. THIS LOW HAS A SIGHTLY NORTHWARD TRACK THAN THE CURRENT LOW AND SHOULD NEAR THE COAST ALONG THE OR/CA BORDER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS LOW IS ALSO AROUND 15 MB DEEPER THAN THE CURRENT LOW…WITH MODELED 500 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S. THIS LOW WILL TRACK RIGHT ACROSS OREGON THU AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE BETTER DYNAMICS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MODELED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OREGON AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THU AFTERNOON THROUGH THU EVENING.

    2 days of potential excitement and you want to shut the blog down, Mark? Re-think this.

    • Ben Randall says:

      They said “Slight” not “severe” ..Let’s not count our chickens

    • PaulO says:

      I am disappointed also but I have to say I really can’t blame Mark.

      Peace of mind…….PRICELESS!

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      I never mentioned severe, so not sure where you’re getting that from. As I posted earlier parameters look better for Thursday.

  38. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Testing
    1
    2
    3

  39. Karl Bonner says:

    What made the spring of 2008 so aggravating is that we’d get just one or two days where temps got really warm, followed immediately by a plunge back into cold, raw, windy weather. However, the fact that the warm days were so warm dragged up the averages so it didn’t look brutally cold on paper when all was said and one.

    Take April 2008 as an example. Bitterly cold winds the first couple days of the month, then we started to warm up but this was followed by a bout of really low snow levels and some graupel. Then the 2nd weekend of the month Eugene got one day in the low 80s, but two days later we were back in the 50s. Then we got the snow on April 20. The month ended up averaging 57 for the high and 37 for the low, only 3 degrees below historical norms. It was still the coldest April in over 30 years though.

    The way I look at it is that 2008 was probably a fluke, even by La Niña standards. At least in terms of how frequently we got the nasty combination of cold temps and wind, as well as how cold the cold spells were.

    Anyway I’m placing my bets that East Gorge soil moistures will be well above norms for at least April, and likely into May if not June. If we get enough rain at the proper time, our landscape could look like emeralds later this spring. Fortunately the rain is supposed to get heavy again this weekend. Let’s hope The Dalles gets a good soaking too!

  40. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    A very frosty 34.7 here already!

  41. bgb41 says:

    3/22/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:61 at AGNESS2( 247 ft) & CW3932 Central P(1290 ft) & MERLIN SEED ORCH(1064 ft)
    Low: 42 at CW3485 Port Orfo(400 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:21 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 8 at CROW FLAT (5130 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 35 degrees
    ALLISON (47/12 ) (5320 ft )
    CROW FLAT (43/8) (5130 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.59″ at QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183ft)

    • Kyle From Silverton says:

      Thanks for helping me out Brian! 🙂 I owe you one.

      I have an idea! Why not have a Fox 12 weather blog thread over at Western Weather temporary until this blog is back online.

      Personally I do not blame Mark for shutting the blog off one bit as every time he goes on vacation it flares my anxiety attacks BIG TIME like being afraid to fly on an airplane kind of attacks.

      I am tired of certain people cough jesse cough for stirring trouble but the more I think about it the more I wish Mark will make some sort of middle ground.

      That is the only complaint I have about Mark is when he is upset he does not think *middle* other then that I do not have a problem. Also: I do not agree that everybody should be labled suspect just because of a few terrorist who decide to harm people.

    • bgb41 says:

      Glad I could help Kyle. Come join the facebook group.

  42. bgb41 says:

    00Z GFS @ Troutdale

    If this is correct, we are going to totally blow away that March 27, 1955 latest 60 record. Yikes!!

  43. David says:

    Darn, I hate that mean ol global warming ! what will we do now!???

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