Possible Hail or Thunder Later

We could see an active afternoon (assuming we get some sunbreaks later).  By “active” I mean a few spots of thunder or hail…some downpours too.  Check out the Storm Predictition Center’s discussion for the Pacific Northwest this morning:

WHILE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MODEST /PW OF .50-.75 INCH/… SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP TO SUPPORT A FEW EPISODES OF DEEP CONVECTION/STORMS.  DEEP…LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW FLOW WITH 700-500 MB SPEEDS OF 50-65 KTS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZATION OF THE ACTIVITY INTO BANDS…WITH EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES/WEAK SUPERCELLS/LEWPS POSING A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.  IN ADDITION…TOPOGRAPHICALLY-BACKED LOW-LVL FLOW IN CSTL VLYS MAY SUFFICIENTLY ENHANCE LOW-LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR TO YIELD A THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO..ESPECIALLY IN WRN ORE/SW WA.  WHILE COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALOFT…MOST STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

Yuck…I hate reading all caps, but I’m sure not going to retype that!  I’d like to see a lot more clearing offshore; nothing is going to happen under this solid cloud cover through the early afternoon at least.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

418 Responses to Possible Hail or Thunder Later

  1. Andrew Johnson says:

    NWS may want to think about a winter weather advisory for the foothills. Currently 36.9 with chunky rain here at 220′. I drove up on the Silver Falls HWY and it was all snow above 800′. Started sticking around a 1000′ and there was about 2-3″ on the ground and coming down hard when I turned around at about 12-1300′. The roads were snow covered and everything.

  2. Jeannie Jarose says:

    Rain/snow mix in Scio, Or @9:40am, have had over 5″ of rain, 39.0 degrees now

  3. Got a friend who lives in Lacomb (east of Lebanon) who is reporting 34° and snow that is starting to stick. Elevation is about 700′.

  4. W7ENK says:

    Just an observation… it’s been awfully quiet in the PNW the last couple weeks. 😕

    http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Maps/10/240_45.php

  5. Pam C. says:

    SNOWING up by Brightwood. 34 degrees. Yikes! Will this ever end.

  6. Andrew Johnson says:

    Down to 38 here now. Judging by location observations down here in the mid-valley I would estimate the snow level to be between 1300-1500′ right now. I have had some reports of some very wet snow mixing in with the rain now too.

  7. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    In my morning putzing around on Lifehacker I found a pretty awesome historical weather data site that I thought the rest of the weather community here might enjoy:

    http://weatherspark.com

    For a quick summary of what the sight does:

    http://lifehacker.com/#!5782447/weatherspark-forecasts-and-averages-historical-weather-data

  8. Roman~Snow-Zone says:

    Raining hard. 36.5F its going to snow! jk. Liking this weather though.

    • Andrew Johnson says:

      If it was January it probably would be…Don’t we say that every March. 🙂

  9. Andrew Johnson says:

    Raining here in Silverton and down to 40 degrees. 0.56″ of rain has fallen since midnight.

  10. W7ENK says:

    Umm, okay? Within the last hour there was just a M5 earthquake in Puerto Rico… seems like an odd place doesn’t it?

    http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/Quakes/usc000248a.php

    • Roman~Snow-Zone says:

      I watched a show last year on the Discovery channel and scientists were discussing the Haiti earthquake. The show also said that there is a subduction zone that runs just north of the dominican republic.. It’s the red line you see on the map.. Anyways If it goes the scientists said it could be a 9.0 mag quake. So it could be pretty serious, with a big tsunami for the east coast. I never knew this threat ever existsted before.

  11. Runrain says:

    CNN and others are making a MINT scaring and panicing the public with their speculation and unconfirmed reports on the Japanese nuclear plants! The shareholders should make out big on this one.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Yeah they sure are. I’m getting sick of either the inconsistencies in reporting by the network themselves, or it’s simply the Japanese media contacts, or the Government? First they said all workers had left the reactor site and now they said all returned and 180 workers are present. Um okay? I’m growing quickly sick of western media how we sensationalize EVERYTHING.

    • Pete says:

      I don’t watch much CNN, so I’m not sure exactly what story or stories you are referring to, but I do know that radiation levels rose and the workers were pulled out, then radiation levels fell and the workers were brought back in. What’s confusing about that? Yes, of course there’s a degree of “sensationalizing” of the story. So it has always been, so it will always be. I’d encourage you to avoid those outlets that you believe to be indulging in fear-mongering. But this is in fact a sensational story. The facts, ever-changing, are by their very nature pretty scary.

    • W7ENK says:

      Well said Pete, thank you!

    • Runrain says:

      Yes, good point. Nonetheless, the “news” is just a step above (barely) reality TV. Too much money out there not to be!

  12. Jake-(Gresham) says:

    Back to weather geek stuff, I just wanted to say that earlier today one of the thunder claps was so loud it actually made my car’s alarm start peeping in warning! 😀

  13. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    No thunder here, no boom here, no slam dunk here, no end of the world….. YET 😉

  14. bgb41 says:

    3/15/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:61 at CW2710 Maupin(1040 ft)
    Low: 49 at CW3485 Port Orfo( 400 ft) & DW1265 Newport( 164 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:29 at Mount Hood Meado(6601 ft)
    Low: 19 at Mount Hood Meado (6601 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 21 degrees
    CW8927 Young Lif ( 59/38 ) (1631 ft )
    CW8140 Spray ( 57/36 ) (1772 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.96″ at RED MOUND(1753ft)
    1.91″ at QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183ft)

  15. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    This caught my eye

    That’s the 00Z NCEP/NWS Pacific Surface Analysis chart. Direct your attention off to the east of Japan near 150 E. Low pressure is projected to rapidly intensify down to 944 mb! This will not impact Japan’s weather directly.

  16. W7ENK says:

    Just to keep everyone updated on the unfolding nuclear disaster in Japan:

    [11:30 p.m. ET Tuesday, 12:30 p.m. Wednesday in Tokyo]
    A white cloud of smoke or steam rising above Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant may have been caused by a breach in the containment vessel in reactor No. 3, government officials said.
    http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/03/15/japan-quake-live-blog-fire-erupts-in-fourth-reactor-radiation-warning-issued/

    Japan ordered emergency workers to withdraw from its stricken nuclear power complex Wednesday amid a surge in radiation…
    http://www.katu.com/news/national/118056304.html

    Radiation has reached around 20 times normal levels in Tokyo.
    http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nn20110316a2.html

    This situation just continues to get worse…

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Yes it does, and it may worsen for the people in Japan. I hope there is some good news by tomorrow, something encouraging.

    • Ben Randall says:

      God forbid we get a cascadia subduction zone quake in my life time

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      If so, drive east just a little ways towards the Coast Range… you’d be okay. Well…. You would survive, you would not be okay. It would wipe out most of the Coastal communities. Not even fun to talk about.

    • Ben Randall says:

      Actually I have been told by Emergency management director ….I am not in the induction zone..still would be scary

    • ya you would have 20 min once you felt the quake and the surge could be 100 feet high 3 times japan !

    • im sure the people 5 miles inland thought that also unless i was over 100 feet above sealevel i would go higher if i lived on the coast

    • Ben Randall says:

      Of course I have the coast mountain blocking me from the ocean

    • W7ENK says:

      Ben, what’s your elevation?

    • Ben Randall says:

      Around like 50ft

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Looking at the Mesowest page it looks like most of Tillamook is 10-40′ above sea level. If so Tillamook would be flooded no doubt a 100′ wave would easily travel up the Bay I would think?

    • Ben Randall says:

      yea we would get flooding but we could not get the main wave

    • yevpolo1990 says:

      The really bad thing about these 4 reactors is that they are all very close within each other, one’s problem will trigger the others, i am not sure how this is going to be stopped, WHY NOT take Chernobyl’s approach and just sand bag and cement the whole thing??!
      Anyhow…I think until that happens this will go on for weeks in not a month.

    • MomOf2Kiddos says:

      I think they are in the process of updating the inundation maps too. If you are on the coast and feel the earth move you should immediately head to higher ground. Better to be safe than dead.

    • Jake-(Gresham) says:

      Yeah Rob if there’s one thing I’m certain is you do NOT want to be in a bay if a tsunami has the potential of striking. Bays usually constraint the tsunami and make it amplify even higher. This was seen to be true in one of Japan’s coastal bay towns (forgot the name) where the water stacked so high it reached the 4th floor of the hospital and wiped most none concert buildings away.

    • Ben Randall says:

      yea just like this quake that just happened me and my mom went to our fair grounds to red cross to be on the safe side

    • 100 foot surge would put you underwater i would think whats to hold it back those few miles ?

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      From what I understand only reactors 1-3 are operational and #4 is burning waste fuel. They will probably in case it in something if things do not improve soon.

    • Ben Randall says:

      and I don’t think we would get a 100ft wave not even japan got that …..and I have the mountains that will hold it back to some degree

    • yevpolo1990 says:

      yea from what i hear is, Japanese media has not given any info within 6 hours now, which is very unusual…

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Ben, I’ve heard several interviews from expert Geologists that said if a massive Cascadia subduction zone quake did occur the Tsunami would be 80-100′ ….

    • Ben Randall says:

      they also said the wave in japan was going to inaduction up and down the coast and it did not

    • Jake-(Gresham) says:

      I wonder how far a 80′ to 100′ tsunami would push up the Columbia river? I mean I’m not trying to be over the top dooms-day here but it was clear the 25-30ft tsunamis in Japan had no problem going up rivers….

      I’m also almost afraid to ask how well would a dam, namely Bonneville dam hold in such an earth quake scenario?

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Nah I would think impacts up the Columbia wouldn’t be much.

    • Jake-(Gresham) says:

      Yeah I agree, I think the coast is in far greater danger.

    • W7ENK says:

      Absolutely, the wave would be 80 to 100 feet! Ben, there is nothing to stop the surge from flooding out the bay and filling in the entire valley. If you haven’t seen them already, watch videos of Friday’s surges in harbors along the coast on YouTube.
      Like this one:

      or this one

      You can clearly see that it’s less of a wave, and more of a massive surge of water… and that’s after travelling more than 5,000 miles. What do you think would happen if sea level suddenly rose up by 80 feet? All that water would come right into the bay, flooding inland to fill all the way back against the Coast Range mountains, and it would do so very quickly! That’s a Tsunami. Those enormous waves you see in surfing videos from Hawai’i – those are nothing like a Tsunami.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Somewhat similar to a storm surge you’d find with a Hurricane, only moves much faster with several waves/water rises occurring.

    • Ben Randall says:

      Luck I live right by highway 6

    • W7ENK says:

      Indeed Rob, very much like a storm surge, only on a much grandeur scale! A storm surge is only as big as the center of the storm it follows under. A Tsunami originates along the entire span of the fault line rupture, in our case about 1000 miles long, and expands out from that point. A Tsunami also travels at ~600 miles per hour.

    • Ben Randall says:

      That was cool video scott

    • wonder how it was caused had to be sudden cause the roots were all preserved

    • …someone correct me if I’m wrong, but i believe that those are the remains of a forest that suddenly dropped a lot of feet in elevation during a subduction zone quake here…

    • its from over a 1000 years ago and im not sure anyone really knows

    • weatherlurker says:

      Yes. The coast will drop several feet if theres an earthquake. That’s why there is dead forest along the coast in places from the 1700 event.

    • Karl Bonner says:

      “Ben, there is nothing to stop the surge from flooding out the bay and filling in the entire valley. ”

      The Willamette Valley?

      W7ENK, while we’re at it we ought to check Bonneville Dam, The Dalles Dam, John Day Dam and Umatilla Dam to see if they would be able to block the tsunami surge. It would really stink if the Columbia Basin also got flooded!

    • Ben Randall says:

      I just have a hard time thinking that Tillamook would get the main wave …we are 5-10miles inland …

    • ShutUpandBeHappy says:

      I saw research that was given to me by a coastal county emergency manager done by someone at Oregon State (sorry I can’t remember who) that showed evidence that a previous subduction quake here had dropped most of the land along the coast 8-10 feet so if you were at 10 feet above sea level you would be close to under water even after the tsunami was done. Apparently there are a number of river banks that have cut into prior layers of earth that show a sudden change in the level of the sea based on salt deposits. I wish I remember more of the specifics, but it was pretty interesting.

    • W7ENK says:

      @Karl, the top of Bonneville Dam is at ~150 feet elevation. There is absolutely NO way that even a worst case scenario 100 foot surge would pass over that, assuming it made it that far up river in the first place, which is extremely unlikely. Anything above there would be safe from a Tsunami.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      If this verifies…. then YIKES this year has something to offer!

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Only 200-400 J/kg of MUCAPE. Granted that would be stronger instability than we saw today, but it isn’t alarming.

  17. AlohaWeather says:

    Will the next showers turn into something decent?

  18. WhiteEagle - Garden Home/SW Portland says:

    Ooops, here’s the site:

    http://pdxboom.crowdmap.com/reports

  19. WhiteEagle - Garden Home/SW Portland says:

    Interesting site, can’t believe how many reports there are!!!

  20. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    OH and to add to the mystery there was a power outage and boom very near my house at 10:16 PM. Actually I was using john and BOOM/power flashed and I nearly peed on my leg. True story.. Perhaps breaking news? Anyhow PGE reports 164 customers out from it.
    http://www.portlandgeneral.com/safety_outages/outages/outage_updates/outage_detail.aspx?county=multnomah

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      The john aka Toilet*

    • TAGinGresham says:

      lololol, I needed that laugh Rob! I think peeing on your leg qualifies as breaking news. Maybe we shouldn’t use the bathroom during thunderstorms!

  21. MomOf2Kiddos says:

    Would be interesting to see if anybody caught it on video. I heard a loud booming but I passed it off as a jet and didn’t take note of the time.

  22. W7ENK says:

    Rough estimate (based on reports and lightning detection map) puts the bolt near the intersection of Hwy. 10 and Hwy 217 in Beaverton.

    45° 29′ 12.00″ N
    122° 47′ 38.00″ W

    That’s 8.9 miles from me at bearing 110 degrees. Direction is about correct, but the distance is more than twice as far as what would be expected for 20 seconds. At 1,100 feet per second, sound travels roughly one mile (~5,500 feet) in 5 seconds, so 9 miles would have been 45 seconds? Could have been, I wasn’t counting, actually.

    • W7ENK says:

      I was standing outside for the sound. It was very definitely ALL to the West of me, entirely in the direction of the flash. There was no related sound from any other direction, not even up. My BOOM was definitely not long or rolling. Very brief, very LOUD, no lasting percussion, and as I said before, it was so deep and loud I felt it in my chest, and it shook the window behind me.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      What I experienced was just the boom and from my location it sounded like typical thunder, only a bit louder more percussive? …. I did not see a flash.

    • W7ENK says:

      Also, the flash I saw was extremely bright, flat white, no color. It was a single momentary flash, no repeat strokes or flickering, and it very clearly silhouetted the trees to my North and West.

  23. Ben Randall says:

    That was weird the high wind warning color was up on the nws site then it is gone

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