A Classic Windy March Day Ahead

Gusty windy, sunshine, downpours, and temperatures not TOO chilly should really make it feel like March today.  Not one of those gloomy and rainy days, but an invigorating, refreshingly wet day. 

Did I “sell” that well?  I’m up early for my last school visit “field trip”.  I’m headed down the Valley to Trinity Lutheran Preschool in Mt. Angel and Aumsville Elementary (Toto!).  All that and back to Portland by 3pm.

Check out the nice curl of low pressure west of Astoria.  Looking at the IR loop you can see it has reached it’s maximum depth and is beginning to fill; good news since it’s a little farther south than expected.  The low is going to stretch a bit as it moves onshore.  In fact we are going to see the southern part of it drag across NW Oregon midday-early afternoon.  It’s called the “bent-back occlusion”.  THAT gives us a renewed surge of SW wind on the Coast and our strongest wind in the Valleys…sometime between Noon-2pm.  I like the term “poisonous tail of the bent-back occlusion”…sounds dangerous.  It’s an old saying in the Pacific Northwest referring to these situations.  We had one of those give us damaging wind back in November 2006 I think.  As that passes through, models show 13-15 mb. gradient from Olympia to Eugene, which gives a general guide of 40 mph gusts.  The icing on the cake this time of year is lots of mixing due to the warm sun inbetween showers.  The mixing allows stronger winds a few thousand feet overhead to show up at the surface, especially with heavy showers between the sunbreaks.  We will see some gusts in the 40-50 mph range.  Not a huge windstorm, but “Wind Advisory Worthy”, and enough for a tree or powerline to go down here or there.  Especially since we haven’t even seen a gust over 50 mph at PDX this winter!  It hasn’t been a big year for south wind at all (again).   By 5pm it’s all over and we finally get a dry day Friday!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

85 Responses to A Classic Windy March Day Ahead

  1. Josh "The Snowman" From Everett, WA says:

    Brian and his jpeg maps.

    A recipe for misinformation. Worthless really.

    • bgb41 says:

      Josh, an uneducated jerkoff who is jealous of people who have higher education than himself. I am sorry you are so jealous Josh.

    • snodaze says:

      What does education have to do with anything BGB? I’ve seen you reference this a number of times…

  2. Ok, not HWW criteria, but well into wind advisory level wind, seatac gusted to 52, not bad for march

  3. Yevpolo1990 says:

    Well this sucked, next event?

    • Sifton says:

      Hopefully that will be the forecast of the 1st. 70 degree day!!

    • bgb41 says:

      70 degrees and Sunny? Jesse will be furious

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Just got back from a beautiful day in Central Oregon. Lots of sunshine with scattered showers and temps in the 40s and low 50s.

      Glad to see you were thinking of me while I was gone. 🙂

  4. Just had gust to 51 mph

  5. HWW issued by SEA NWS for SEA area

  6. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    I have officially canceled the Wind Advisory. Better luck next time all.

    You may now return to your regularly scheduled program.

  7. bgb41 says:

    Current Columbia gorge map with peak gusts today and current surface pressure gradients

    (+12.7mb) KOTH-KGEG Gradient currently.

  8. Gust to 48 mph at my house at 2:02 Pm

  9. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    OLM-EUG southerly gradient was still increasing as of 2 PM. Until it decreases our winds may still yet increase.

    • alohabb says:

      It’s blustery for sure…..but not much of an Advisory quality wind event for me.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      As of 3 PM it had decreased from -11.5mb down to -10.8mb. We just didn’t see enough pressure difference as the models suggested we would see -13 to -15mb. Fail.

  10. Ken says:

    Non event yet again.

  11. WEATHERDAN says:

    Almost 1.1 inches of rain in Salem last 24 hours. Isn’t spring grand

  12. Jane - Forest Grove says:

    Wind starting to pick up again. I think it’s because I was going to take dog for a walk. Still might, the sun is shining.

  13. Sandman - Aloha, 300' says:

    Radar says Aloha is just about to get pounded.

    I bet the heavy cell is going to let the wind roll.

  14. Showers, 46.5° and very light winds.

  15. Tyler in Anchorage says:

    After being below -20 last night up near Fairbanks, this 30 in Anchorage feels like summer.

  16. MomOf2Kiddos says:

    Taking a real good pounding of wind and rain in Cornelius now. Radar is colorful.

    • Jane - Forest Grove says:

      That’s so weird. The sun is shining here in Dilley. Not that far away…

    • MomOf2Kiddos says:

      It was short lived. Was fun while it lasted 🙂

    • william johnson says:

      what did someone say Dilley wow thats my old hometown used to live in the blue house right across the street from the elementry school very rare to hear the name of that town loved living there lived there for 15 years. I miss it far cry from the town i live in now .

    • Jane - Forest Grove says:

      I think I know what house you are talking about. I’m close to the school. I love it out here in the “country”. 🙂

    • William johnson says:

      Cant miss the house with the lazy tree in front of it unless its been blown down or cut down have not been in dilley for 8 years.

  17. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Wind Advisory fail? Kind of looking that way.

    Jeez what does it take to get some active and exciting weather here? It takes an act of congress to get everything lined up for snow, wind events, or t-storms.

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      The NWS not commenting on a potential storm. They seem to be the death touch for active weather. 🙂

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      I did notice the advisory is active until 9pm. Seems like everything is progressing slower than forecasted.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      No sooner I say that and the winds have definitely increased. I just had a gust to 36.4. Not Advisory levels though, not yet.

    • bgb41 says:

      Looks like low bombed out prematurely and once it got north of us it started filling too quickly?

    • Jane - Forest Grove says:

      My BBQ cover hasn’t been blown off yet. It did several times on Feb 12th. It seems like wind advisories usually happen in the middle of the night. I was looking forward to it during daylight hours.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Wind advisory is for gusts 35-45 mph, and it turned out fine from what I can see.

  18. Gust to 44 mph at 1:09 pm at my house

  19. william johnson says:

    Wind here in Astoria is picking up quite dramaticly as well as the rain earlier it was breezy but nothing like this is this the front moving in ? can anyone tell me where the front is ? or bent back ossilation or whatever you call it? thanks bill

  20. william johnnson says:

    wind and rain is picking up quite quickly here in astoria was a lil breezy earlier but this is picking up quite nicely . does anyone know where the front is located at this time? or ben back ossilation or whatever you call it.

  21. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Wow VERY heavy burst of hail and strong winds. Red echo on radar.

  22. W7ENK says:

    Just got back to my desk with some lunch. Light rain and a little breezy at street level downtown, but nothing out of the ordinary, really.

    I have to laugh at all the non-natives wandering around hiding from the rain under their umbrellas. 😆 C’mon, you’re not made of sugar, and a little rain is good for the soul! Besides, one good gust of wind and that umbrella is going to be turned inside out…

    And, now it’s sunny. o_O

    • W7ENK says:

      The sun is still shining downtown… The trees are barely moving.

    • Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

      Looks like a normal spring day in Portland….Breezy, sun breaks, and showery. It’s funny that non-natives try to use umbrellas around Portland when it’s rainy and windy 😆

    • W7ENK says:

      I know, right? I don’t even own an umbrella. 😆

  23. Yevpolo1990 says:

    upper 20’s to low 30 mph gusts here, partly cloudy as well..temp is 48

  24. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    OLM-EUG is ramping up nicely now increasing to -10mb now.
    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link_pdiff.shtml?choice=KOLM+KEUG

    PDX-EUG -4.5mb

    Winds should begin picking up shortly.

    • Jane - Forest Grove says:

      Winds are picking up enough to rock my 100′ fir trees…. Hang in there trees!

    • Rookie says:

      Winds picking up downtown. watching the flags near Pioneer square and things look like they are picking up a bit. rain too.

  25. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    The occlusion is now moving inland. It’s about to get fun, well somewhat.

  26. MomOf2Kiddos says:

    We saw a pretty rainbow this morning, only lasted about a minute. I couldn’t fit the whole thing in the pic lol 🙂 http://i53.tinypic.com/316nuk9.jpg

  27. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Strong line of showers from Tigard down through Newberg. We may see some strong erratic gusts with this.

  28. william johnson says:

    Wind was blowing so hard in Warrenton that it blew a Shopping cart across the parking lot hit my wife jeep and ripped of the front side plastic bumper. about 30 mins ago. Dont know the gusts but as i was sitting in my car waiting for the wife to get off with her insurance agent my car was bouncing up and down. sure woulda liked to have known the gusts.

  29. bgb41 says:

    Already at 3.25″ of rain here in March as of 11am on the 10th.

  30. Christiana in Forest Grove says:

    Mark–Thanks for the update and the added vocabulary words. My 6 year old nephew always loves learning new words.

    Kind of glad its not going to be too windy. I have a paper to finish and I need to have power to run my computer and coffee maker.

    • W7ENK says:

      My Uncle Dick doesn’t understand what all the hub-bub is about…

      My Uncle Dick also wonders why your 6 year old nephew is surfing the internet unsupervised?

      No disrespect intended, just making an observation.

      😕

  31. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    The low is currently due west of Ocean Shores, Washington and looks to make landfall somewhere between Forks and Tatoosh Island.

    12Z WRF 4KM wind gust model was rather eye opening when I viewed it. Apparently it wants to give a fairly large stripe of 40-50kt gusts over the Willamette Valley Sunday 5 PM.

  32. W7ENK says:

    I still think a “Bent Back Occlussion” sounds like some type of mythological flying fire-breathing creature of terror…

    😈

  33. pappoose in scappoose says:

    I’ll certainly have to add that term to my list Mark, must be on watch for the “Poisonous Tail Of The Bent-Back Occlusion”. Undoubtedly a dangerous event. Hahaah!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Definitely need to keep a close eye on the long range forecast as a slug of moisture is rifled our way. Hahaah!

      NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
      911 AM PST THU MAR 10 2011
      .LONG TERM…LOOKING AT AMSU TPW VALUES OUT IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC…A NICE SLUG OF MOISTURE IS GOING TO BE RIFLED OUR WAY AS THE PAC JET INTENSIFIES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS ONE CLOSELY…PROBABLY NOT A PINEAPPLE OR ATMOSPHERIC RIVER…BUT DEFINITELY ASPIRING TO BE ONE. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS MANY SYSTEMS RIDE THIS STRONG JET STREAM INTO OUR AREA.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      The “Poisonous Tail” is approaching. Quick men…prepare for trouble.

      http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir4km_enhanced+12

  34. RobWaltemate says:

    NE of Long Beach Wa
    Wind at my house is 10G29 South, and I can watch it roll in over the trees to the south and then hit the house. It has been realy gusty since 7:30 pm yesterday.
    Temp 49.4 DP 49.1
    Presure 29.65
    Not much rain for all the wind 0.07″

    High tide is about 4pm and I would bet someone could get some nice pics of Cape D.

  35. Runrain says:

    Great name for a band: “Bent Back Occlussions”!!

  36. Steve in Beavercreek 1,100' says:

    This storm dumped 1.48″ of rain here overnight and this morning.

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