Snow Outlook: Monday Evening Update

I don’t have a huge amount to add to what I wrote last night, as everything seems to be on track for SOME snow for most of us the next 72 hours.  Here are the graphics I’ll show at 10pm:

All the 00z models are in (except the ECMWF).  They all show progressively colder showers tonight through Thursday.  By Wednesday AM, 850mb temps of -7 or -8 over us, plus southwesterly onshore flow, means snow could stick to the lowest elevations briefly.  Then we play the “how much precipitation and where exactly are the shower bands game”.  That’s how I get the Trace-2″ for Wednesday AM.  Warming Wednesday afternoon (just the sunbreaks inbetween showers) pushes us up around 40 or so.  So whatever falls Wednesday AM will melt in the lowest elevations in the PM.  But as the atmosphere continues cooling and the sun sets Wednesday evening, that sets us up for the best chance for widespread snow showers dumping a good 1-3″ in the lowest elevations through Thursday evening.  Sometime later Thursday, east winds COULD arrive, depending on which model you look at.  If so, that could give a little extra lift, and our RPM model showers healthy showers Thursday when that occurs.  Then it all slides south and we freeze up Thursday night.  The WRF-GFS was real pitiful with precipitation central and western Valley locations through the whole episode…another reason I didn’t go too crazy with snow amounts.

I did check out the cold spell in 1960 (Feb. 27th-29th) that occurred the same time.  Arctic high came in from the NE, 850mb temps to about -10 at PDX and -20 over Spokane.  Lows were 19,24,29 at PDX, highs were 39,42,43 (or something like that for the last day).  So the high temp of 35 and 38 might be low for Friday and Saturday.  I do notice the WRF-GFS is stubbornly pushing us up to 40 on Friday and lower 40s Saturday…might be right on.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

1,216 Responses to Snow Outlook: Monday Evening Update

  1. Jeannie says:

    Scio, Or. has a light dusting of snow, nothing but a light dry snow which looks more like sleet. Hoping for more snow!

  2. jlsc (Milwaukie 150 ft) says:

    Now down to 36 degrees in Milwaukie, so that’s a 2 degree drop in an hour or two. Come on, snow, we are so ready.

  3. alohabb says:

    Up until a few hours ago, this place was hoppin’ as snow talk was present, and talking about how other TV Mets aren’t bitting yet. But as soon as they all bite, the blog calms,and doubt sets in?


  4. RobWaltemate says:

    NE of Long Beach WA
    Temp 39.9 DP 27.1
    Wind 3 G 9 WNW (highest gust 26)
    Barometer 1018

  5. Bob says:

    Rod Hill says on average 4 inches around the city and 6 to 8 inches on higher hills.

  6. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Was just outside, vehicles/deck frozen, no stars…bring on the moisture!

    • muxpux says:

      same here but, no moisture heading to longview right now. grrrr.

    • RobWaltemate says:

      I was just outside and saw the stars and the darn West wind off the ocean is to warm!!! LOL

    • Wendy-Silverlake,WA says:

      Looking at the radar, this will be the longest we have been without any all day. Nothing appears to be showing up on there. Temp is 31.9

  7. Iceman says:

    Nobody’s perfect, but when the NWS issues a winter storm warning for PDX for massive amounts of snow they’re usually right. A lot more often than Mark Nelson’s conservative forecasts are.

    • Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

      I respectfully disagree…

    • Jethro (Molalla ~320') says:

      Not that it really matters, but what evidence do you have to support your arguments?

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      I say this with respect, but I couldn’t disagree more. Mark has been more accurate than the NWS.

    • Well one thing I know is that Mark at least makes a forecast while some people, won’t mention names, like to play both sides so they’re “right” either way.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      You’ve lost your mind.

    • I’m surprised no one’s kept a running tally, but off the top of my head, I’d have to agree with the others that Mark has called more snow events (or lack thereof) correctly than the NWS.

    • jlsc (Milwaukie 150 ft) says:

      I periodically keep track of all the TV weather people and the NWS and see who’s right the most often. Over any extended period of time, it’s Mark. I tell everyone I know who works outside or lives in mid- to east-Multnomah county where the weather is more, uh, changeable, to turn into Mark. I’ve had no reason to change that referral.

    • Brad says:

      Iceman did you just thaw out?

  8. This might show up as a double post eventually – signed myself in and used a different email address, triggering the moderation on my first comment:

    Latest NWS discussion has some potential timing suggestions:

  9. Brad says:

    Snowing in Battle Ground…Jacob we caught your shower. Sticking too.

  10. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    And when it clouds over, it warms…33.2 now 🙂 SW wind at 11 MPH…

  11. Jeremy says:

    Severe virga warning issued for Wilsonville south.

  12. It’s time to forecast the old fashion way…Look at the radar, SAT and out your window. The SAT looks nice BTW, you can clearly see the pattern setting up and a nice band of organized showers are sliding down vancouver island right for SW Washington and NW Oregon.

  13. jlsc says:

    In Milwaukie, down to 38 degrees. But it was 39 at 4 PM, so we cooled early, then plateaued.

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