Evening Update

A short post since there isn’t too much new to talk about.  Note that PQR (Portland NWS Forecast Office) recorded a Trace of snowfall, which means the winter total of .3″ still stands.  Of course that was the arctic front that came through two days before Thanksgiving.  That system brought more of a widespread snowfall to everyone, but I don’t think anyone outside of the hills had more than 1″.  Today was heavier and more convective/spotty.

Still looks like another round of snow showers overnight and into the morning.  I’d say another 1/2 of the Metro area could see sticking snow again like this morning.  I have a feeling there won’t be as much moisture, so maybe no 2″+ totals like we saw up in northern Clark County today.

Friday could be great on the Coast for snowfall as the next surface low moves straight north to south offshore.

Sunday and Monday?  I pulled the plug (mostly) on the 7 Day forecast.  12z ECMWF, 12z GFS, 18z GFS, and now the new 00z GFS and ECMWF are either dry or not quite cold enough to give widespread snow to the Valley floor, so I sure couldnt’ leave in the “snow to sea level” wording.  Sorry, but a snowstorm for President’s Day is not likely for now.  No, I haven’t forgotten the January debacle; models may decide to get rid of the split that’s forecast.  But I wouldn’t count on it!

I’m losing my voice, or something has crawled into my respiratory system the last two days.  I feel almost normal, but sound terrible.  Wayne says I’m just “laying the groundwork” for a sick day Thursday…we’ll see.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

142 Responses to Evening Update

  1. Garron near washington square says:

    Once the Hef is cold, I think we should make a dart board of weather models. Let the games begin!!! It would be fun to see in comparison which model run hits closest to the bullseye after…day 1, day 2, day 3 ect…then we can start the bell curve for model riders. You can place odds on favorites for model tracking, and temp predictions to get a better seat for next storm’s prediction.

    Maybe somebody with computer writing skills can write the next program TWC or NWS will use to verify model out put. Looks like the market is wide open at this point?

  2. PaulB/Eugene says:

    12Z ECMWF:

    At Brookings, OR:

    Thickness drops to 515. It snows there as well.

  3. PaulB/Eugene says:

    12 ECMWF evolving into colder solution than the 00Z…numbers still spitting out.

  4. Gidrons says:

    Just in case, I’m taking the 4WD to work tomorrow. Models don’t have to miss by much on the low currently tracking south to make for some interesting weather tomorrow. Not a prediction, just a precaution.

  5. PaulB/Eugene says:

    Midmorning model update:

    The Euro ended up being right with the idea of the so-called President’s Day storm staying well offshore, headed to N California coast Monday. All models in this camp…so dry and cool looks like a good bet for the Willamette Valley for second half of the three day weekend.

    Midweek…still early..

    The Canadian (GEM), NOGAPs (12Z), and ECMWF (00Z) clearly show a very cold trough dropping into the region Wed/Thurs next week…with 516-522 heights over the area, thickness dropping below 516, with some precip involved although not much…while GFS has ridging over the G of AK farther E so that we have dry N flow over us…still rather cold with – 9C 850mb temps. So as it stands the GFS is the most moderate of the models…the ECMWF the coldest (isn’t that a flip of what we saw a few days ago when the ECMWF bailed out on the Monday “snowstorm”.

    Still a ways to go..but we could be in for one of the top five coldest outbreaks for the last week of February in the past 120 years. A good chance of an inch or two of snow in the process but won’t bother trying to get excited about snow amounts until we are inside of 48 hours or so.

    Best guess as to what temps will be…coldest high temp in PDX 39 degrees, coldest low 23. That is assuming a trace to no snow falls, and it is just clear and cold. If significant snow falls (more than an inch)…could be looking at temps about 3-5 degrees lower than that.

  6. Aloha Rainshadow says:

    ATTENTION WEATHER WEENIES!!! ARCTIC OUTBREAK NEXT WEEK?? Sure looks promising!
    12z GEM goes stone cold at hour 144!
    12z Ensembles are cold if not colder than the 12z Op starting at hour 144!

    Euro starts around hour 144!
    It will be interesting to see what the 12z Euro brings.
    These are dry model runs for the most part but the 12z GEM blasts us with major snow! So did the 12z Euro at the end of the run.

  7. bgb41 says:

    12Z GFS @ Troutdale

    Looking pretty dry now till Tuesday morning. Looks like low snow levels on that day follow by some modified arctic air at the end of next week. Should be interesting. Could get some lows in the 20’s for a few nights at that time.

  8. Andrew Johnson says:

    On the bright side its nice and sunny outside in Silverton.

  9. Cgavic sandy Oregon 1,100 ft says:

    1. 1 inch
    2. Sandy
    3. 1,100 ft
    O/n Lo 31

  10. TAGinGresham says:

    So I went to bed last night with Rob saying the next 6-7 days are cold, and the Euro looks nice. I wake up this morning and winter is over, Brian and Yev are going back and forth again, and no discussion as to what happened overnight in the models to lead us to winter is over. Huh…Maybe it’s a good day to avoid the blog.

    • …Take it from one who’s been around the weather block more than a few times…kick back, relax, watch whatever happens, prepare for the worst, hope for the best….and join the content crowd at the bbq….

    • Boydo3 500' North Albany says:

      Pattern is still the same. It’s the emotions that have changed.

    • Boydo3 500' North Albany says:

      Larry, dang it, you must have been typing at the same time.

    • Ben (Beaverton, 775 ft.) says:

      Any more beers in that cooler Larry, or do I need to make a beer run? Oh, and what’s on the menu tonight? New Yorks, Rib Eyes, Tri Tip?

    • Gordon (Vancouver) says:

      Tag, I think people are just grumpy because the Sunday/Monday “snowstorm” is not going to happen. However, what Rob stated last night is still in the cards. I can’t speak for the other models but the just resleased 12Z GFS gets us pretty cold starting Wednesday and even throws some precip in the cards Wednesday night. Not alot but maybe enough for an inch or two. Then it gets cold and dry through the first part of next weekend. That’s the model at face value.

    • Josh (Gresham) says:

      And thats 6 days out. 6 days out from the potential sunday storm looked great too

    • …tonight…hmmm thinking about a bbqed pizza!…
      better go on a beverage of choice run!!!

    • Ben (Beaverton, 775 ft.) says:

      Mark, come join us down here…just picked up some Jagermeister for that whatever you’ve got in your throat. 🙂

    • Gordon (Vancouver) says:

      Very good point Josh. That’s why I’m not fully vested in it yet. I’m just saying it’s not like there are suddenly no more possibilities coming up. I think you may be a bit burned out on it though. Perhaps a few days away from the blog/models would help.

    • Boydo3 500' North Albany says:

      Ben, I’m willing to bet Mark is a diet Pepsi drinker.

    • MasterNate says:

      Yes, Widmere Hef is the best! Goes great with Halibut fish n chips or about any other kind of seafood.

    • PaulO says:

      With lemon?

  11. Bishoy says:

    I’m not sure why you guys are in such a bad mood about this winter. The pattern we are in is going to give us several chances to have some exciting weather, even if it doesn’t happen in the next few days. If you have take. A look at the models, you’d see that the GFS sets up a borderline snow event towards next Tuesday, and the Euro/GEM/NOGAPS are showing potential snow events next week as well. Many of these are within the 180 hour timeframe, which makes it potentially possible.

    • Josh (Gresham) says:

      It’s hard to believe at this point, with warm ups during the day it’s very unlikely

    • TAGinGresham says:

      I am equally confused Bishoy. What happened between 11:30 and now that changed any potential, all be it small, of snow next week?

    • Bishoy says:

      Well, people are just a little bit disillusioned that the Sunday system is trending weaker and further offshore. Nothing has really changes.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      I agree Bishoy, as long as we stay in this pattern we could be surprised at any time. I use humor as a form of panic control as I see one event go east of us and the next go west.

    • W7ENK says:

      You’re correct, Bishoy. Nothing has changed. The models are coming to agreement now, and the fact that it will not snow this winter remains the same as it did 240 hours ago. The models also continue to push the cold and snow back day by day. This has also not changed.

    • Bishoy says:

      W7, is that really necessary? I don’t mind you stating your opinion, but I do mind you proclaiming it as the absolute truth. Almost all models are showing a cold snap starting at 144 hours. But, beyond that, without even looking at models, the pattern that we are in very good for cold/snow. As others have said, let’s just expect the worst, hope for the best.

    • W7ENK says:

      Sorry, I shouldn’t have used the word “fact”. My bad.
      Replace “fact” with “nearly unsurmountable likelihood”. 😉

    • TAGinGresham says:

      Over confidence is not always attractive.

    • W7ENK says:

      Are you sure?

    • TAGinGresham says:

      Absolutely positive.

    • W7ENK says:

      Only fools are positive…

      (I’m not calling you a fool, I’m seeing if you know this line from a movie…) 😉

    • Garron near washington square says:

      I think a lot of models’ inablities to read our region go up during this time of year. They do not read/account for as well under the following conditions:

      #1 Close proximity to ocean,
      #2 Thickness 1000-500Mb is not the best measure for chances for snow anyway, but with all variables in the NW, is ESPECIALLY a bad read to forecast snow.
      #3 Beyond 3-5 days, some models just revert back to climatological bias cycles, and are almost as useful as asking a tourist for directions when they are lost themselves.
      #4 “borderline” snow patterns west of the cascades seem to be 80% in favor of the house odds that snow WON’T happen due to slight variable in wind shift (ie south wind), track of storms (due to earth’s rotation), and the fact we are so close to ocean’s warming influence that we don’t get the clearing skies we need before the storm arrives to cool the atmosphere.

      That said, it is the other 20% of the time “close calls” for snow make living here more fun when it does actually occur and it was not forecast. Makes us like little kids again waking up to a winter wonderland. I remember I think about 1990~1991 on a night like these that there was no fan fare for snow, and around midnight, it began to snow and didn’t stop until like 7 AM with about a 5 inch surprise.

  12. RobWaltemate says:

    my big snow storm yesterday NE of Long Beach… try not to laugh to hard!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Look at the bright side, got to name some flakes and didn’t have to shovel any.

    • W7ENK says:

      You saw WAY more flakes than I did, and I’m 140 feet higher!

      Nice piece of property you have there, looks quiet and peaceful. 🙂

  13. W7ENK says:

    So, 2 degrees warmer and less snrain in Milwaukie this morning. Still saw that strange “inversion”-like phenomenon with all rain (very light) at the top of the hill and some tiny sloppy flakes mixed with the drizzle at the bottom.

    That makes no sense!!!
    :head scratch: ❓

  14. Kyle says:

    Conditions in Silverton Oregon?

    BUST! 🙂 As in nothing at all!

  15. Josh (Gresham) says:

    I honestly think that at this point the chances for anything more than a widespread “dusting” or maybe an inch accumulation are unlikely. It just seems like with each model run it’s getting warmer.

    • W7ENK says:

      Hmmm… how sad. 😦

    • Josh (Gresham) says:

      Never thought i would say it but, i think it’s over. It just seems again, as you said Erik, there’s just too many variables

    • W7ENK says:

      This is just a repeat of January’s flop, and very similar to November’s. Model inconsistencies don’t just add up from run to run, they multiply. When models start producing errors at hour 0, one should know that everything from that point forward is going to be out of whack… *everything*. Common sense told me not to put faith in any of the output.

      I wouldn’t be surprised if this model-ride gives us one more loop before taking it all away and settling on a not-quite-cold-enough-to-snow solution 3 days out (Sunday, at this point?). Let’s try to not get our hopes up too much this time, people. We all know it’s inevitably going to flop.

      So long Winter 2010/2011. I hope you can still see us waving from 6 weeks over… 😥

      Now, back to enjoying the prospects of warm sunshine poolside down here at the bottom of the cliff. Am I the only one still down here?

    • Josh (Gresham) says:

      I’m looking foreword to spring thunderstorms now

    • W7ENK says:

      Yes! Thunderstorm season is approaching fast. 😀

    • Josh (Gresham) says:

      Living in Illinois for the first 8 years of my life, I love thunderstorms

    • W7ENK says:

      Oh, I bet you saw some good ones back there!

      Visiting family in Central Minnesota one August (1988), we had 9 severe thunderstorms in 22 hours, the last of which produced golfball sized hail a few miles NW of Little Falls (where we were), softball sized hail and an F3 tornado 30 miles to our South near St. Cloud. One storm was just a 2-1/2 hour long continuous roar of thunder that varied in loudness from dull to earth-shattering!

      I love Midwest thunderstorms!!! 🙂

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      I’m still here W7, lets have a cold one and see if we can stop laughing at the poor desperate weather geeks on the cliff, long enough to drink em!

    • Josh (Gresham) says:

      Craziest one I had was when I was in first grade. We’d had thunderstorms all day but that was nothing out of the ordinary for september. After getting off the bus I heard 5 separate tornado sirens and the sky was this gross shade of black and green. Street was flooded too. Luckily I got to my house because a tornado touched down less than a mile away

  16. Boydo3 500' North Albany says:

    This looks like fun, too bad it is Fairbanks..
    Tonight…Snow developing in the evening. Snow accumulation 2 to 4 inches. Temperatures nearly steady from zero to 10 above. Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 15 mph toward morning.

    Friday…Snow likely in the morning with a storm total of 3 to 5 inches…with locally higher amounts on the hills. Scattered snow showers after noon. Highs 10 to 15. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph… Except 15 to 30 mph on the hilltops with blowing snow.

    Friday Night…Decreasing clouds. Lows 10 to 25 below. South winds 10 to 20 mph in the evening becoming light.

  17. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Moisture dropping down from the northwest, where’s it gonna go?

    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir4km_enhanced+12

  18. RobWaltemate says:

    NE of Long Beach WA
    Temp 33.5 DP 32.5
    Wind 1G4 SE
    Barometer 1005.9

    I have crunchy grass. And Mother Nature did “something” to the top of the picnic table… and other flat surfaces (suppose I better watch that Mother Nature don’t send an Albino Donkey to run me down now).

    Oh, and there is clam digging this weekend (might be the 19th) low tide 7:21 pm, but I think I will go out at 4:30-5:00 if it is nice out.

  19. snowing hard here, 32F, 1 cm thus far

  20. bgb41 says:

    Josh (the Snowman) – So how much snow are we getting on President’s day? 🙂

    • yevpolo1990 says:

      you have to stop the bashing man, its getting rude and disrespectful, keep your ego to yourself.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      To be fair that isn’t bashing. Looks more like harmless poking sarcasm. Also Josh did say and has said we would see a snow storm on President’s Day, which may not occur. I know Mark isn’t on board with that.

      “Sorry, but a snowstorm for President’s Day is not likely for now. No, I haven’t forgotten the January debacle; models may decide to get rid of the split that’s forecast. But I wouldn’t count on it!”

      My intent wasn’t to call out Josh or throw him under the Winnebago, rather to answer you, Yev. You know Brian wasn’t bashing anyone. C’mon….

    • bgb41 says:

      Yev’s comment “I have to give him credit for calling this way ahead of time”

      My comment “Credit for something that hasn’t happened?”

      That was yesterday…..

    • W7ENK says:

      I want my Birthday snowstorm and my Valentine’s Day snowstorm, too!!! >_<

    • bgb41 says:

      Nope, Not bashing Yev. Just tired of wishcasters getting all mad when I am correct. You included.
      As far as being dis-respectful..You are the definition of it..

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Please bgb, lets not stoke the coals and start this again.

    • Garron near washington square says:

      I am dissapointed too, I thought it was assured the pattern shift was a coming, NWS had a lock on it!!! Something special is coming….FOR NEXT WINTER I GUESS?!?!?! UGGGGGHHH. Anytime you get that assurance from anyone this winter will be stacked in our favor, better get it in writing!

  21. bgb41 says:

    Since tomorrow morning is the one week anniversary of the -31 degrees in Nowata, Oklahoma.. Lets check on what its doing there right now.

    332AM— 68 degrees overcast DP 57

    Yes its about 99 degrees warmer than a week ago LOL..

  22. bgb41 says:

    2/16/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:54 at LAKE OWHEE AND O(2400 ft)
    Low: 37 at K7FU Monmouth( 197 ft) & CW7076 Albany( 247 ft) & Clatsop Spit( 30 ft) & BROOKINGS( 79 ft) & Salem, McNary Fi( 210 ft) & Hubbard South( 175 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:15 at Mount Hood Meado(6601 ft)
    Low: 8 at KB7DZR Joseph (3984 ft ) & ANEROID LAKE #2 (7300 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 29 degrees
    PRINEVILLE 4NW ( 45/16 ) (2840 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.03″ at CW5356 South Beach ( 66ft)
    1.01″ at Sexton Summit(3837ft)

  23. Karl Bonner says:

    I did some research on the past 29 Februarys in The Dalles and came up with this. I was only looking at the second half of the month for the most part, for the simple reason that early February is still too deep in the winter season to be of serious interest.

    ==========

    Feb 2006, Week 3:

    Two nights in low teens, highs in 30s and 40s

    Feb 2005 Week 4:

    Highs 55-61, lows 23-27 same days! Very contrasty!

    Feb 2003 Week 4:

    Highs in 40s couples with lows of 19-28

    Feb 2002 midmonth:

    Two fairly contrasty days, 55/24 and 53/25, straddled Valentine’s on both sides.

    Feb 2001 last 5 days:

    Five sunny days with highs 52-57, lows 23-28. Diurnal swings were 28-29 degrees F.

    Feb 2000:

    Data missing for last 7 days of month; nothing interesting first 22 days.

    Feb 1997:

    2/22 to 2/24 was sunny and contrasty, lows 26-30 and highs 53-59.

    Feb 1996 midmonth (after Great Flood):

    Five days with highs 50-55 and lows 25-28

    Feb 1995 late month:

    The “Great February Heat Wave of ’95”: from 2/19 to 2/25, seven days with highs 60+ (warmest was 68 on the 24th!) and three contrasty days (about 30 degrees diurnal from 2/22 to 2/24).

    Feb 1994 last week:

    Three days with highs in mid 30s and snow.

    Second half of Feb 1993:

    Only one day 40 or higher (it was 41). Six days with highs in 20s, five of them in the last week. Nine days with lows in teens, coldest was 14 on 2/26 and 2/28.

    Feb 1991 final week:

    Every day was 60 or above (warmest 62 and it happened on 4 of the 7 days). Lows ranged from 27 to 34. Diurnal swings ranged from 28 to 33. More clouds than sun.

    Feb 1988, the 19th to 29th:

    Seven days with highs in the 60s. No recorded precip, and apparently more sun than clouds. Diurnal swings were all between 28 and 33, except for the 29th when it was only 22.

    =================

    So as you can see, serious cold snaps CAN occur in late February here, and in one case (1993) the chill was downright bitter.

    But they don’t happen very often. Only three of the past 29 years have seen sub-20 temps after Valentine’s and one of them just barely so. Of the remaining two years, the freeze of 2006 came with only one day that had subfreezing highs, and one other day that failed to hit 40. By the third day, even The Dalles was getting into the 40s during the day despite lows in the low teens!

    Far more commonplace in late February are nice contrasty days with diurnal swings of 30 degrees or more; sunny and springlike (55+) afternoons; and days with highs of 60 or warmer (whether sunny or cloudy).

  24. Josh (Gresham) says:

    Hoping for some ice and maybe a quick shot of snow tonight

  25. yevpolo1990 says:

    o man, i think seattle area is going to get some good amounts again…

  26. EmzinTigard says:

    I’m hoping what moisture we do have makes it up this way..

  27. Heisson Rob says:

    You’re laying some amazing groundwork for the sick day – wow do you sound bad!

    Glad you’re feeling better, but I bet you’re killing whoever is running the soundboard.

  28. Karl Bonner says:

    OK. If we can’t have snow early next week, how about a hard freeze instead? It’s too late in the season to worry about anything cold enough to hurt windmill palms, even in the Gorge. But some low 20s or upper teens would be fun to see before spring weather comes and stays for good.

  29. Josh "The Snowman" From Everett, WA says:

    Peter/Bellevue and whoever else wants to listen.

    Puget Sound Convergence Zone forming right now, just popped up out of nowhere.

    Could be our turn for a quick couple of inches. Currently 35 and snow starting……..

  30. Eternal Yamcha (SE Milwaukie) says:

    Yeah, get well soon Mark!

    It was nice to see the snow that we did, Mt. Scott was hammered and sticking snow was very, very low on it… I’d say roughly 300 – 400 feet before it stuck on the grasses and only a couple hundred feet above that for sticking to the roads.

  31. PaulB/Eugene says:

    Benchmark late Feb cold wave for PDX was in 1890…high of 25 for Feb 25…then low of 10 and high of 30 on Feb 26. Going to be tough to beat that.. I believe high temp in Corvallis was also 25.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Real tough… Full run EURO looks nice. Either cold snowy or cold dry/east winds is what I see.

  32. RobWaltemate says:

    Well, no snow stuck around here today NE of Long Beach WA, but you say there might be some fun heading our way!

    Mark… you might already have tried this, but gargle with salt water (room temp water). It might help.

  33. Now what was this word “Bust” hummmm ………………I don’t think it’s a bust now at least for me

  34. PaulB/Eugene says:

    If you define highs 35-40 as being cold…then for Thurs next week…UKMET is cold…Canadian is cold…NOGAPS is cold….ECMWF is cold….GFS…not quite that cold…JMA 12Z…not quite that cold

    There are no models showing warm or even mild…or even normal for day 7-8.

  35. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    00Z EURO

    Day 7 – 850mb

    Oh yeah! Coldest run yet at day 7. Upstream in BC/AB is MUCH colder with stronger arctic high pressure. Beyond day 7 could be unprecedented for us.

    I did say models would turn colder. Maybe I will be correct.

  36. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Mark, get better soon because models are about to kick us right in the …. well after day 6-7.

  37. Josh (Gresham) says:

    So are looking at ice 2moro morning? Because the roads out here are very wet.

  38. PaulB/Eugene says:

    NOGAPS even colder than ECMWF.

    Models may be backing off snow for this weekend but it may end up cold next week later on. speaking of which…514 thickness Wed PM at PDX on ECMWF…510 on NOGAPS….. 0.29 inches liquid in form of snow for PDX

  39. BrandonInNWSuburbia says:

    Hope you don’t get too sick, Mark. The “frog-voice” cold is going around my work.

  40. PaulB/Eugene says:

    ECMWF has surprise in store though….thickness to 515 at PDX, -9C 850mb temps with .22 in liquid precip on Wed PM….512 thickness at Seattle….

  41. Boydo3 500' North Albany says:

    So I’m thinking of heading to our cabin in the coast range for Thursday nite and Friday. Maybe I can catch a steelhead in the snow! (or cold rain)

  42. DallasBob@500feet says:

    Thanks Mark.
    First?

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