Snowy Weather Update

The big question the next few days will be “is it going to snow at my house?”.  Here are the thoughts I sent to the newsroom a few minutes ago…
 
First, things we know WON’T happen in the next 5 days:
-High winds
-Flooding rains
-Freezing Rain
-A Cold Blast or Freeze, or “Arctic Chill”
 
Lots of cold showers streaming in off the Pacific through Friday, no single “storm”, although the showers pile up against the Cascades, which makes it more of a continous snowfall (storm) up there.
 
The showers get a bit colder and the snow level (the lowest elevation that snow sticks) lowers tomorrow through Friday.  At this point it appears the the lowest that we’ll see an inch or more of sticking snow is ABOUT 1,000′.  Each morning there will probably be some sticking snow below that elevation in spots; basically if a heavy shower passes over, it allows the snow level to briefly dip a bit more.
 
In the hills (up near 1,000′ and above): Much better chance for some snow on the ground the next 3 mornings, but even that will be random. 
 
So will we see a widespread sticking snow (1-2″+) here in the lowest parts of the Metro area? 
Unlikely, just not quite cold enough with relatively mild air coming in off the Pacific through Friday.
 
Will everyone see SOME snow in the air, or a dusting on cars/grass?
Very likely, especially Thursday and Friday mornings when it’ll be slightly colder.  At times it could get real exciting with fat snowflakes falling, but then melting.  Snow will be a “talker” the next 4 days.
 
Will it affect the morning or evening commutes?
No issues with main roads/highways in the lowest elevations, but expect snowy roads at times in the hills (top of West Hills, Sandy, etc…), probably only during the AM commutes.  This time of year, temperatures generally jump into the 40s in the afternoons because it’s getting so late in the winter season.  One sunbreak and it’s 44 degrees.
 
This will be the best snow “event” we’ve seen this winter in the Cascades and hills around town.
 
 
As for Sunday and Monday, details on that are really up in the air, some models show a good combination of moisture and cold for a widespread snowfall even down at the lowest elevations; others do not.
 
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

288 Responses to Snowy Weather Update

  1. CW says:

    Still coming down pretty good in the Orchards area in Vancouver. I would say 1/2 inch and everything is turning white.

  2. David B says:

    Wet snow in inner SE (Buckman area) right now. Not sticking except maybe a little slush on the lawns.

  3. Darlene in Boring says:

    34.5 and light snow in Boring. Only sticking to the grass and soil. =)

  4. Wendy says:

    We have snow in Beavercreek, Oregon ( That’s just south of Oregon City) It started about 5am and we have about 1/4 of an inch.

  5. Brad says:

    Wow. It’s going to be a really long 3-5 days in here. Clearly, the usual suspects (our favorite wishcasters) have been riding extra hard lately, are wound tight and are having a really tough time hearing anything but “3-5 inches this weekend it’s a lock, dude!”

    I don’t begrudge their enthusiasm, but their memories are really short and the their track records are not so good. After all, when was the last time Rob or Brian got kudos for calling for rain while the usual suspects were calling for 2-5 inches. It’s already happened twice in here this winter, but of course, few seem to remember.

    So before you guys turn this into a high school pep rally, just keep in mind that not everyone is biting (or biting hard) on the “big snow.” With that said, please carry on by calling me a troll for expressing my sincere opinion – that clearly will add to your street cred. lol. Peace.

    • TAGinGresham says:

      It’s all about how you do it Brad. I respect Rob’s opinion. I respect Paul’s opinion. I respect Brian’s opinion. But you come on here once a day, throw in your “forecast” and then insult anyone who doesn’t see it like you do. Rob, Paul, and Brian do not insult and disrespect people just because they might not see it like them. Referring to the discussion as a high school pep rally is yet another insult. Troll…wishcaster…what’s the difference? Both phrases are over used, but if the shoe fits…

    • O.C.Paul says:

      HEY, light snow in Oregon City, 34.3 degrees.

    • Jacob BPA-PSE says:

      Brad

      PDX is such a tough area to predict snow so before you get upset understand the setup and different variables that this are has is you move 100 miles east or north you could have a totally different scenario models say things 5 days out then changes 2 days out this blog is for those scenarios and to let people discuss what they see in the Models

      Just sayin 🙂

    • homer55 says:

      Wow…the only “decidedly high-school” poster on here right now is you Brad. Feel free to make your own blog and you can make people post how you like and expect. Here such posts only rain on people’s parades and serve to incite rather than entice.

      When you are done stroking your e-peen with pre-emptive flames against anyone who might disagree with you, perhaps you could get back to discussing the weather.

      Fun Fun Fun!

  6. TAGinGresham says:

    I find it interesting how some people check-in once a day, stir the pot up, contribute nothing to the discussion, get irritated when asked to defend their one word answers, and then leave.

    Then we have the “Yeah but” posters who always need to find something, no matter how small, that goes against the grain.

    I guess this is just the way it goes on a weather blog…

    • Brad says:

      What?

    • TAGinGresham says:

      The first part is directed at you. You come on at the end of the day, make either one word posts, or disrespect people, and then get pissed when someone asks you to explain yourself. So are you expecting people to reply to your posts? Or only if they agree with you? I just don’t get why some people think it’s fun to act this way, but it’s easy to have courage when you’re sitting behind a computer screen.

    • W7ENK says:

      I’m curious, which category do I fall into??? 😆

  7. Wendy-Silverlake,WA says:

    Hey Mark,

    Can you move your graphic titles up just a bit. On the RMP snow one the title is right over me. I’ve noticed that on a lot of stuff also. If you could move it 30 miles to the north that would be terrific.

    Thanks in advance!!!

  8. bgb41 says:

    00Z GFS @ Troutdale – Continuing the trend of 18Z run.
    Less shower activity than prior runs which will tend to limit low level snow chances through about Sunday morning. Right now what precip falls Sunday might end up being diurnal and that also could limit accum chances. Timing of continental air for mon-wed has been pushed up slightly. The big story next week might just end up being some record low temps at night rather than snowfall. If current GFS is in the ball park (probably isn’t though) low temps around 20 middle of next week are certainly a strong possibility with clearing skies wed/thurs mornings.

  9. Josh (Gresham) says:

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PQR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
    Mentions at least rain/snow mix in the valley tomorrow. Possible snow also.

  10. yevpolo1990 says:

    could this be west side luck again? 😉

  11. Jacob BPA-PSE says:

    NAM shows Snow Friday

    Gem and GFS now Show Arctic Front Next week

    Hang on its going to get bumpy

    Snow Sunday and Monday

    • Ben (Beaverton, 775 ft.) says:

      

    • Josh (Gresham) says:

      Brad, I’m gonna put this as nicely as I can.
      静かがありなさい

    • Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

      The 00z Euro is next up to bat

    • TAGinGresham says:

      What is the new langauage you seem to be speaking? Not sure what a whole bunch of squares translates to in the weather world.

    • Josh (Gresham) says:

      I think he’s saying he should be blocked

    • Ben (Beaverton, 775 ft.) says:

      Oops…that didn’t work. 🙂

    • bgb41 says:

      And then Mark’s new post just showed Brad is correct.

    • Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

      cold rain..Yeah right 😆
      I would expect at least a dusting of snow everywhere leading up to Monday.

    • TAGinGresham says:

      Brian, you have just proved my point. The need to be right, for some people on this blog, is what ruins it. We don’t know who is right until it happens. Brad could very well be correct, but it is not like he was the first person today who has said it will be nothing but rain. He comes on once a day, just to stir the pot. Rob, Paul, yourself, at least give reasons as to why you believe what you do. It’s all about credibility.

  12. Andrew Johnson says:

    Wow, I make statements like “The RPM snowfall model is on crack” and the NWS mentions accumulating valley snowfall possible in their discussion. Im still skeptical. They are right. The NAM gets carried away with convective precip many times.

    • kcteach-Gresham-500' says:

      I’ve read your posts and trust your instinct. You’re a solid poster. Why are you skeptical about this?

  13. Jeff in Scappoose says:

    I’m far from sure I’m reading this right; please let me know if I’m off base. It looks like the 00Z GFS and the NAM are in broad agreement about hours 54-63, except that the GFS has the low coming in farther south, and the precip hanging up on the coast range.

  14. Brad says:

    Looks like a cold rain for the next several days. Lots and lots of wishcasting going on. I fully expect to see successive runs lift any valley snow to above 1,000ft.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      And this is all based on……what?

      And I won’t except “gut feeling”, “hunch”, “past history” or “desire to annoy other blog users” as answers. I want something scientific.

    • Brad says:

      Now you’re worried about “something scientific” Jesse? Anyway, the latest WRF GFS keeps snow levels above 1000 ft. through 84hr. Beyond that I wouldn’t put much stock in the models as their performance has been abysmal outside of 120 hr.

    • Josh (Gresham) says:

      Brad you a are troll

    • W7ENK says:

      Brad, I’m on board with that. This thing has flop written all over it. Best not to lead everyone to get their hopes up.

    • Brad says:

      Josh, get some rest bud. You certainly don’t want to miss English tomorrow.

    • TAGinGresham says:

      So does wishcasting go both ways? Or is it only for the people who want snow? It sure seems that sometimes, there is wishcasting the other way, just so one can say that they are right.

    • yetanotherguy says:

      I agree with Brad that at Sea Level this will likely be cold rain. It could get to 500 feet, but more likely 1000 feet or so. MAYBE flakes in the air but virtually no sticking snow. Not trying to get anyone upset, and I agree hunches and gut feelings are of little value, but past experience is a valid tool, and based on past experience with late season models and a general tendancy for models to err on the side of being too cold during nearly all seasons in the medium and long term, I believe snow is unlikely.

      It will be unseasonably cool, and on a clearish night even unseasonably cold, just not cold enough when precip is around to get meaningful snow.

  15. geo says:

    Are we looking at strong east winds by the middle of next week?

  16. Jacob PSE-BPA says:

    Now appears a Arctic Front next week Dear God what is next

  17. Andrew Johnson says:

    So the RPM model as linked to on this blog is showing that the Salem/Woodburn areas would will receive around 4″ of snow in the next 72 hours. They also show about 6″ for my location (Silverton). I pretty much give that model about a 0% chance of being accurate on this one.

    • Wendy-Silverlake,WA says:

      I thought it was funny that it was only showing an inch for most of hte coast range.

  18. ..Hey Ya’ll..keep hiding Boydo’s lawn chair..join in a flabfest?
    http://flab5.info/chat/index.php

  19. blowmedown says:

    Looks like we get cold Thursday and Friday, then we dry out and get a bit colder and then the moisture seems to just go away!
    ” Sound familiar ?”

  20. Josh (Gresham) says:

    Here is the extracted 00z GFS. Looks good for snow on Friday
    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KTTD

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      It shows no precipitation on Friday though.

    • Bishoy says:

      Yeah, it updated and said ’00Z’ on the top, but it was still showing the 18Z data. It changed now.

    • Josh (Gresham) says:

      Whoops, got ahead of myself.
      @Mark, how accurate do you think the 72hr RPM model is gonna be for Friday?

    • Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

      Mark, what’s the good word? What do you see now in the next 60 hours? Do you lean towards the RPM, GFS, NAM, none of the above, or all the above?

    • Andrew Johnson says:

      I think the RPM will prove to be completely inaccurate through friday. It is not going to snow 4-6″ in the Salem area between now and then. I just don’t know how it would.

  21. Bishoy says:

    Hmmm…Looking at the GFS extraced suggests the same idea of snow this Friday. Interesting, for sure. Check out Hours 66-78 on the extracted:

    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kpdx&submit.x=0&submit.y=0&submit=submit

  22. 00Z GFS: buh bye snow up here. Deja vu all over again.

  23. Muxpux says:

    Hmmm, that 72hr RPM model puts Longview precariously close to 2-4″. Hmmmm

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