Prompted by an email, I figured I should see how the the UW’s Mesoscale models did with respect to reality with our mini cold snap. I know, not exactly a cold snap, but that’s relative to the month of January I suppose.
Here is data from the NAM-MM5 and WRF-GFS models for three locations, Portland, Salem, and The Dalles. The number in parenthesis is the departure from the actual temp. So a negative number means the model was too cold, zero is spot on, and positive means the model was too warm:
| PORTLAND | MON HI | TUES LO | TUES HI | WED LO |
| ACTUAL TEMP | 44 | 34 | 42 | 29 |
| NAM-MM5 FCST | 39 (-5) | 21 (-13) | 37 (-5) | 25 (-4) |
| WRF-GFS FCST | 48 (+4) | 34 (0) | 42 (0) | 36 (+7) |
| SALEM | MON HI | TUES LO | TUES HI | WED LO |
| ACTUAL TEMP | 46 | 32 | 46 | 26 |
| NAM-MM5 FCST | 41 (-5) | 21 (-11) | 38 (-8) | 21 (-5) |
| WRF-GFS FCST | 51 (+5) | 30 (-2) | 48 (+2) | 29 (+3) |
| THE DALLES | MON HI | TUES LO | TUES HI | WED LO |
| ACTUAL TEMP | 38 | 24 | 38 | 18 |
| NAM-MM5 FCST | 13 (-25) | 3 (-21) | 12 (-26) | 5 (-13) |
| WRF-GFS FCST | 41 (+3) | 25 (+1) | 39 (+1) | 25 (+7) |
The NAM was too cold in the end, especially east of the Cascades. Actually it was pathetic over there. A quick check of Redmond showed a huge cold bias there too. The WRF-GFS was slightly warm but did very well here in the Metro area, until this morning. Note the NAM forecast highs only in the 30s to maybe 40 up and down the Valley both Monday and Tuesday, but that was a good 5-10 degrees too cold.
This morning’s lows are interesting because the WRF-GFS was too quick to warm things up (big surprise…no) in the cold air coming through the Gorge. I think the NAM did a little better this morning due to holding onto the cold air longer, even if it was far to cold to start with. I should also point out that the WRF-GFS was too warm (maybe keeping it too windy?) for outlying areas. Although I think we all know that dewpoints forecast in the teens and clear/calm conditions means lots of 20s away from the wind. Even we forecast mid-upper 20s here in the city with colder outlying areas.
Let’s talk about the long range maps…ah, well, nevermind…maybe another time?
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen
FOX 12 Weather Blog 
Based on what most models are showing for early next week (only 3-7 days out), those temps on the second half of the 7-Day look way too warm. With that kind of northerly flow, I’d expect Mon-Wed highs in PDX to be 45 at best, and that would probably require quite a bit of sunshine. If it is a cloudier and somewhat wet pattern, it looks almost exactly like the scenarios where the Valley gets a brief slushy inch or half inch of snow, and the hills get 3 or 4 inches. Keep in mind that we are still in early February, rather than near the end of the month. And when there’s a N or NW flow, the increasing sun angle is less effective anyway.
Maybe Mark just hasn’t updated the 7-Day yet. I’ll check back in an hour or so.
I just did, but it takes awhile to update on the web.
00z Euro
Day 7: This has potential.
First 80 degree day in the PDX occurring around…April 28th. 90 degree day? Hmmmm, May 21st? 100? Uhhhhh, July 3rd. Next chance at reaching 200F? The Apocalypse.
i was about to post a frame about the euro, aint that bad…
Hoping for good Mountain snow…
First 70 degree day: March 4 with perfectly clear skies.
First 60 on; “where the models don’t run.”
No need to stop watching the models folks. Weather does bring surprises when you least expect it. I am not having very high hopes for the rest of winter myself too, but you can’t say its over for good.
Besides, models can also be used for thunderstorms so its wise to watch them every day like clockwork. Hey, given how the weather is looking around the country right now, I wouldn’t be shocked if we have an exciting show this summer for thunderstorms.
hour 162 on 500mb shows a beginning of a pattern change.
by 192 hours split flow over the NE Pacific with weak SW flow returning to the region, mild temps, clouds, light precip. Pattern change it is.
yep, basically we turn zonal, 18z looked better than that it had lower heights to the north and over us as well.
we need more cold air
Jeez! 00z just puked again! I’M not jumping off any cliff or bridge , but I think I’m done looking at the models this year and I’ll see you all next November! I also think some of you should also do the same. Thanks Mark for all you great weather analysis and this blog! Take care weather geeks!
Jump now and smell the tulips!
No need to run off blowmedown, take a flying leap and join us for a brewskee!
Nothing really changed 500mb wise in terms of a pattern, we just need a little bit more of cold air and the positioning of the ridge.
GFS says we have the nicest weather in the country in seven days….
Flights to SEA, PDX, LAX, SFO : ON TIME
Flights to BOS, NYC, PWM, BWI: CANCELLED
We are………… PACIFIC WONDERLAND
I guess it depends on what “nicest” is for each person. But this weather isn’t the “nicest” in my opinion, because I want snow! It always frustrates me when newscasters view winter weather as a negative, when some of us actually enjoy it. I remember Jim Bosley always rating the day, and as a child, I would get so mad at him and his ratings, lol!
Flights not cancelled. Travel every week and was in NYC this week. Wednesday was a mess, but all my colleagues got out Wednesday night, and I had no problem out of JFK-SFO-PDX on Thursday 🙂
Hello???
This thing working??
WOW! Check out the pictures of the weather back east… http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1353169/Winter-storm-Bomb-scene-blizzard-ice-snow-killed-12-crushed-buildings.html
My kids musta been on that bus. They never shut a door or close a window.
48/29 for the high low today. So far for the month here in Silverton we’ve started off a bit below normal with daytime highs and well below with lows.
1st: 47/24
2nd: 44/21
3rd: 48/29
Currently down to 39.
Ok, how about top 5 wishcasters??
I’ll put myself at 3 or 4.
No, I’d put you at número uno in the wishcasting department.
No, Bob gets first place.
me at #3
Actually upon further thought, I’d put you at 1a and Yev at 1b.
haha! you are missing bob
Hmm, just about to give up on this winter. This next potential pattern change will be the last thing I’ll pay attention to this season, if this fails, we can pretty much be a 100% sure its over.
No way to know how cold we get this far out (if any), but my gut tells me we will just have another mediocre cold snap which might bring snow to higher elevations but probably nothing here. What do I base my prediction on? Just think about how many times we end up with snow here in the valley during a period of cooler weather…not very often. Save yourself trouble and don’t model ride and obsess over each run this far out.
We have all been surprised many times before though, so like Rob, “cautiously optimistic” is a good approach here.
papoose you jumping back on? i am staying put
I don’t see anything that would make me want to take part in a mass weather geek stampede up the cliff yet. We’ve been burned so many times, it’s hard for me to buy into a change until I see it actually evolving. But with that being said, I must warn you, as I said before, if the possibility of bitterly icy cold, arctic Siberian super chilled frozen wonderland weather (as Rob so eloquently put it) becomes likely, you better not stand too close to the edge…as there is no doubt that any living thing will be in mortal danger from said stampede!
In the meantime I’m enjoying a few cold ones with W7.
Gulp, burp, ahhh….
Another “Big One” for the Northeast next week…
49°…
Anyone jazzed up for 00z? I sure am.
BTW, the view is great from the top of the cliff. Anyone ready to crawl back up yet?
No riding for me. So nice to be with relaxed and reformed people. A very pleasant and much needed break. Call down when the snow forecast is 5 days out.
18Z GFS @ Troutdale – Cooler/Wetter conditions from 2/14 through 2/18 on current run.
With 850mb temps bottoming out at -7C and SSW onshore flow this pattern sets us up for snow levels still above the valley floor. Above 500-1000ft some minor accumulation could occur in this pattern. Still though all this is model riding since it all starts around day #12 and as we all know that is too far in the future to get very excited about.
Great some more useless extracted data that means absolutely nothing!!!!
Just kidding, man. I don’t see how all those highs of 33 at the airport wouldn’t convert to sea level snow though.
No point speculating on the details of a pattern that far out, IMO.
A small tweak in that pattern could easily give us snow.
Could snow on Monday next week, at least flurries according to what I’m seeing.
a tweak here and there and we may finally get our one inch of snow for once
With SSW surface flow those extracted 33 degree high days will end up 35-40 for max temps.
Loving the latest model runs right now as we now know a pattern change will occur and the prospects for a major snowstorm down to the valley floor is highly likely around the middle of February. Hopefully in the next couple of days the models will verify what is about to occur. Winter is not over by a long shot!
“Highly likely”?
“major”?
Go Bob!!
How can you not like Bob?
“snowstorm”?
Wow!
And I mean that in the nicest way possible.
I love you Bob!
I’ve been saying it is highly likely since the middle of last month.
“know”?
You made my day wally.
To Bob:
La-la land = Know
yawn…i’m not getting excited. When its snowing out my window…i’ll take it back
That is simply Bobtacular, Bob.
These models have been forecasting cold and snow after day 9 since the middle of December..lol
Sooner or later you would have to think the NW won’t keep dodging snow storms.
18z GFS = One shot of low snow levels at day 5. Then repeated chances of full blown snowstorms from days 8 through 16.
Am I missing anything?
nope not at all, agreed
Sorry for my noob question but…even with such a promising run what should one expect realistically?
I would assume we’re too far out as of current? Right?
Ya, too far out. But probably enough changes for Mark to update his 7 day before tonight.
I just wish I could click my heels 3 times and go to Accuweather land. But, do to arthritis, someone will have to do it for me. I wish it would snow, I wish it would snow, I wish it would snow…
http://www.accuweather.com/us/or/beaverton/97008/forecast-details.asp?fday=10
I had a dream, I dreamt that I lived in a place where it never snowed, and people in Milwaukie lived in a glass bubble, and model riders were jumping off weather bridges, and you were there, and you and you..
It’s like when Lucy held the football for Linus and he always fell for it, when oh when will we actually get to kick the football?????? AAAAAAAAAARRRRGGGHHH?!??!?!?!
Thanks Josh for clearing that up for me. 🙂
I’d have to say that if I actually get to use my brand new snow shovel I will be completely shocked.
-My hypothesis for why we get so amped on a good model run:
Shark + 1 drop of blood = Madness
Weather geek enthusiast + 1 drop of model = Madness
🙂
There’s the problem, Jake. You and Rob bought new snow shovels this year–ruined our chances for any snow.
La-la-land is such a tease…
Agreed, my Husky is even getting upset.
I do like the cold shot for next Tues/Wed. Is backed up by the GEM and the 0Z euro. As Josh said, like the the one from a couple days ago. Doesn’t hang around long tho.
seems like a small warm up after that and then 18z shows low heights over us
or was it Gordon?
Yeah, I pointed out this is looking very similar to what we just had and is trending colder as we get closer. Much like this last little episode did. Here’s to hoping we can throw a little moisture at it this time and see what happens. I do like the trend at the end of the run as well but we’ve seen this on and off for about a week and a half now. Would like to see the timing moved up before I get too excited about that.
is hour 192 a possible pattern change? really shows what euro has been hinting.
It might be.
shows a big high south of alaska, and then delivers some nice heights over us 🙂
Yeah it amplifies nicely over western Alaska somewhat similar to November pattern and has a slight positive tilt into it. What we want is a positive tilt ridge/block near 150 W nosing northeast into Yukon, but I just doubt that occurs.
<—– Cautiously optimistic, but no emotional investment in models.. Not yet anyhow.
thats a first 😀
Rob, if you ever change your handle, I thing you should go with Rob “Cautiously Optimistic” S.E. Portland. 😉
*think*
Laura, there’s a first for everything.. or somethin’ :p
Good idea, PDXGeologist, I might do that.
Same..
Hmm, where is the low out at 160 going to go? How about Coos Bay? If that happens we are getting some snow. I’m watching it like a hawk!!!!
18z out to hr 120 and showing the changes we have been talking about. High pressure starting to get the nudge:
i am really liking that!
surprised hour 120 is showing that already
Amazing. 18z is actually beginning to look like a possible flirtation with snowflakes around PDX at hr 114! wow.
yep -6 850 temps with east winds
And then hours 144-174 say no soup for you!!!
yup
Oooo….
12Z EURO Ensemble 500 Mb Height Anomaly
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/12zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNA_loop.html
Look what is likely to drop south….
Looks good, Rob.
18z commencing………….
It’s hard not to get a wee bit optimistic now…
hmm yea 18z has to support this..
I can see it now – 18z says:
“Epic cold and snow coming, just wait two weeks!”
I’m really growing tired of this ride. Everytime time I’m ready to concede and move on to Spring, the models show hope. A then the next run dashes that hope. The roller coaster anology is really appropriate here.
When this gets within 5 days I’ll climb back up the cliff. Until then I’m enjoying a nice teriyaki burger and a beer by the heated pool down here. There are lots of relaxed individuals enjoying a break from the riding.
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&hh=240&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=216&fixhh=1
Per 18Z, the Mon – Wed time frame continues the colder trend as we get closer. Looking very similar to what we just had. Remember that got colder as we got closer as well. Maybe we can throw some moisture at it this time.
Gordon, the answer is simple. Just don’t buy in to all the ridiculum. Sit back and watch from over here, poolside by the BBQ. The weather looks great from here, join the party! 😀
Let’s do a vote on the Top 5 trolls of the Fox 12 Weather Blog and the Top 5 smartest bloggers.
This could be interesting :).
They can have a T-Shirt with the official troll face on it.
Let’s not. I don’t think that would be appropriate.
Top 5 dysfunctional people = Top 5 Trolls
Has nothing to do with knowledge or smarts.
posting a list is a very bad idea
remember smartest weather blogger we have here is bgb41 and rest are all dumb and all trolls
Hey, some of us could fall into both lists :).
Nope I am not smart, actually just a nice person who likes to contribute to the blog.
Actually I am really glad you are continuing to bash me Yev. You are going to be crying the blues really soon when you get banned.
Also, I am glad Mark gets to see who you REALLY are.
i am a dummy weather follower, bgb41=god of weather bloggers, i am not saying anything bad here.
#1 Stephanie K
#2 Sophie S
#3 The KTLA weather girl
#4 Mark N, sorry, you got out voted as there are 2 guys and 1 girl in this household…Oh wait!!!! I thought we were voting on Fox’s weather FOXES!!! My bad 😉
Sorry, when weather is this boring, you gotta have a sense of humor…Back to Dave Letterman’s “trolltastic top 5”
haha! i like that^^^
Here is my list:
Smartest:
1.Brian
2.Brian
3.Brian
4.Brian
5.Brian
Trolliest:
1.Brian
2.Brian
3.Brian
4.Brian
5.Brian
And, relax Brian, I’m just messin around :).
I wish Brooke Carlson did the weather too.
She’s right up there with Steph/Sophie in the attractive woman category.
Or some of those latin weathergirls I have been posting..mmm mmm mmm.
Yev, no one is calling anyone dumb here. There is just a thing called pride getting in the way of good ol’ fashioned thinking. I’ve known bgb and he’ll forget about weather than most will learn about it. I am not taking sides or pointing fingers, but when I was your age I too would be quick to jump if someone critiqued my ideas, or defend something I said if I was wrong. You just have to take your lumps, ie:pride, and swallow those for now. You are only 20, and I’m sure that if you keep at this weather thing, you’ll be teaching the next generation of Fox’ weather blog groupies, and guess what? There will be another guy/gal that thinks they’re best model reader in the lands, and you’ll be there to show them a thing or two.
Starting to cloud up at Lincoln City after a beautiful morning.
At least the NWS weather discussion is coming around with the cold NW flow aloft and the freezing levels coming down. Hope that’s a good omen this time.
http://.LONG TERM…FEW CHANGES MADE IN THE EXTENDED…MODELS CONSISTENTLY INDICATE NORTH
FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NE
XT WEEK…BUT LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED. CURRENT
MODEL RUNS INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
AND AMPLIFY OVER THE EAST PACIFIC EARLY TUES
DAY. GFS NOW KEEPS A THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
MOST OF MONDAY…WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
HINT AT PRECIPITATION PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS TREND STILL REMAINS THE MOST PROBABLE…AND WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HINTS AT MUC
H LOWER FREEZING LEVELS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS IT SHOWS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR PLUNGING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. SO HAVE COOLED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. LR