This week should be mostly sunny, but much cooler then last week since we’ll see cold east wind picking up overnight and into tomorrow. Other than the strong east wind and chilly temps, no other significant weather on the way the next 7 days, so the rest of this brief posting is for the weather geeks.
I didn’t have internet, phone, or Netflix Instant Viewing until about 9pm tonight; that’s what happens for 6 hours when you live out in the country. We actually had to communicate around home…wow! (a joke…mostly). So after seeing a few emails about dramatic model differences I wanted to chime in; once I could actually look at data/maps. The only model run that is obscenely colder than others the next 48 hours is the MM5-NAM from the UW. All models show a nice surface high developing now (already 3+ millibars through Gorge and gusts to around 40 mph at Crown Pt). That strengthens and should be maxed out on Tuesday. Definitely a good day to visit Vista House!
So the MM5-NAM model shows highs between 10-15 degrees at The Dalles Tuesday, while others show 25-30 or even a bit higher. I have no idea why, but with upper level heights bottoming out around 560 dm. at 500 millibars, I can assure you we won’t see highs in the teens in the lower Columbia Basin! In the past I’ve generally ignored the MM5-NAM on surface temps, often noticing that it’s “weird”. That’s the best way I can describe it. It’s done well on surface low placement earlier in the winter, but those temps are often strange. I thought it might have the snow cover initialization showing snow over us, but that’s not the case, I checked. Highs around 30-35 degrees at DLS the next few days usually mean 40-45 at PDX, which is what our 7 Day forecast shows. Our WRF-RPM shows highs right around 40 both tomorrow and Tuesday at PDX.
One more thing…occasionally my service provider for my weather page somehow replaces the uploaded page with a blank image for several hours. Then it takes care of itself. Just add a “2” before the “.html” and that’s a static file that’s always there even when this happens. Drives me nuts too, but the 2nd page helps ease the pain quite a bit.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen