Mild January Continues…

Another two days and I see very little to talk about on the maps.  Incredibly dull weather is likely the next 7-10 days in the Pacific Northwest.  A large blocking ridge sits near the West Coast through the period with little to no precipitation.  Yes, this pattern is very similar to what we see in El Nino winters, not La Nina.  This is going to end up being one strange winter!

There is only1 thing I see that could be interesting next week.  Maybe lots of east wind if the upper ridge has the right orientation.   A very strong inversion forms by midweek.   Check out 850mb temps in the +10 to +15 deg range.  That’s highs around 60-65 in the Cascade foothills.  I can guarantee you won’t see 60 with an east wind in January here in the Valleys…more likely 45-55 in the cool low-level air.  That squeezes the easterly flow through the Gorge down very low.  By the way, the Crown Pt. sensor has a fresh battery, and is somewhat working again today.  But obviously the signal is still having trouble with the concrete.  It looks fine after getting beat up with 80-100mph wind though.  Rumor says there might be a brand new, more permanent sensor with a solid signal before winter is out…we’ll see.  That would be nice…I’ll keep you updated.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

254 Responses to Mild January Continues…

  1. PaulB/Eugene says:

    It won’t be long before the turkey vultures are back circling over Eugene, over all those poor rotten souls stuck in front of the computers, waiting for the models to spit out dome more cold…I tell you

  2. k5mitch says:

    Went to Ridgefield Wildlife Refuge this late afternoon:

    • Mike (Orchards 255') says:

      My family and I go out there frequently. It is a great place to take in wildlife and solitude.

  3. Josh in Puyallup says:

    The 00z puts that ridge back in place after day 8.

  4. Azzurri says:

    00Z GFS Next weekend looks interesting…or am I completely out to lunch and choking?

    • Josh in Puyallup says:

      That weak low headed straight for the Southern Oregon coast kinda suprised me. Lets keep that there and start spinning it faster and make it stronger.

    • Yevpolo1990 says:

      told ya, lets see if meteostar verifies and let’s look at those 850 temps

    • Andrew Johnson says:

      Highs in the mid-upper 40s with showers and 4000′ snow level = interesting?

    • Yevpolo1990 says:

      not if u got east winds

    • Yevpolo1990 says:

      if we can get that H pressure to the east of us in Montana a tad stronger then we are in for some goods? Although the gorge will be the key…

    • Josh in Puyallup says:

      Those winds need to be blowing arctic air through the gorge. East winds doesn’t automatically mean snow.

    • Andrew Johnson says:

      You guys are grasping at straws.

    • Yevpolo1990 says:

      Because there is nothing else to talk about haha

    • Andrew Johnson says:

      We could talk about how we took advantage of the fantastic warm sunshine this afternoon (At least it was sunny in the mid-valley). I took my new dog to the park for a walk. It was nice.

  5. Josh "The Snowman" From Everett, WA says:

    Not weather related.

    How about a healthy 100% Brandon Roy and Greg Oden next year!!!!!!!!!!!

    Watching the game tonight and Roy is talking about coming back after the all-star break this year. Man, that guy is competitive.

    I think he should wait and make sure this doesn’t happen again. Here’s to hoping he can maintain some leaping ability once he’s healthy.

    • Dave_in_Troutdale says:

      Any word on the last model run? Yev sure was being positive today. Anyhow, BRoy probably will never be the same unfortunately. He was just so much better before these latest knee setbacks. The man has no meniscus. Oden probably won’t even be a blazer next year, but who knows. On the bright side, the team is looking pretty good these days anyhow, especially LA. Still not even close to a championship though. Maybe Cho will make a wise and surprising trade???

    • Josh "The Snowman" From Everett, WA says:

      How about that tip-slam by Cunningham!!!!!

    • Yevpolo1990 says:

      I am 80% sure that Greg will be in a Blazers uniform next yea, he will get a qualifying offer.

    • Dave_in_Troutdale says:

      Dante is playing good tonight! Has been lately it seems. Maybe he’ll be the one that is the next star? Did you see the cumulonimbus’ on those blazer dancers?

    • Sifton says:

      Ya, that throw down dunk was bad-a$$ed!!

  6. Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

    I think tonights 00z GFS is probably one of the biggest runs of the winter. It seems like when a model hints at possibe cold and snow beyond 10 days the next run takes it all away.
    Will this pattern with the models continue tonight??

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      I expect a mild, cruddy run to be honest. Always hope for a change.

    • Boydo3 500' North Albany says:

      I’m beginning to think Rob is right. This pattern is so locked in that it’s probably not going to change much for quite a while. But we have had some goofy March weather during El Nino patterns so maybe this La Nono will create some wild weather in the early spring. Who really knows?

  7. Josh "The Snowman" From Everett, WA says:

    Hey Yev? How about a deep trough in March/April that gives us some explosive thunderstorms containing graupel/hail/snow?

    I’m thinking this spring is going to give us some really good cold-core possiblities.

    • Yevpolo1990 says:

      I thought last year was a pretty good spring for some tstorm/graupel/snow/hail action, maybe it will repeat? It was a nice wet spring imo…
      I actually think April could end being dry :/

  8. Jon Mark says:

    Has anyone considered the effects that Mt. St. Helens has on our local weather. The last big snow here at 750′ in Hockinson in winter of 79/80 we had 30 inches on the ground at one time. Since then, we tend to have a hard time accumulating any big amounts over an extended period of time. When the mountain had a few more feet of height, did it direct more low level cold air into the southern portion of Clark county and the Portland metro area? Just something that I have pondered ever since the mountain blew in May of 1980.

    • Sifton says:

      Interesting thought, but I would guess either global warming, nature just changing naturally or man made/population related influences.

  9. Yevpolo1990 says:

    And even after the Feb 15th “cut off line”, that does not necessarily mean our snow chances disappear by any means, it is just harder to get snow down to the valleys. However it is still possible, we have had snow in March, come on now.

    • Yevpolo1990 says:

      one of the main reasons is because the sun wakes up and lasts longer during the day unlike in mid december or early january.

    • bgb41 says:

      Historically, Snow in late Feb / early March is unusual and most of the time insignificant. We may see a snow level around 1K at some point during nocturnal hours for a day or two. For us to get a widespread snow at sea level, the odds are stacked heavily against that for the rest of this season.

      Past data shows 27/70 years @ PDX have yielded < 1" of snow for the whole season so its not all that unusual for this to happen.

  10. Punxsutawney (aka HIOPHIL) at work by Sunset High elev ~280' says:

    I can’t speak for causes and nothing scientific here, but I can say that the family farm in Eastern Kentucky gets a lot more snow now than it did in the 40’s or 50’s according to my mother. Enough snow to close school back then was a big event similar to here nowadays, yet seems to happen at least a few times every year there now.

    As to the causes…well it may be that we have been in a +PDO regime and appear to have just recently gone back to a -PDO regime similar to what we saw in the 50’s and 60’s that would give us generally a better chance of cold and snow in the winter over time. So maybe things will improve in the next several years.

    Also, I’ve heard that the jet has become more amplified in recent years, meaning less zonal where the cold air was generally kept north, and less of these big troughs digging into the southeast, but that doesn’t explain why the Southeast is affected, but not the West Coast other than topagraphy as mentioned earlier. Realize all of last spring we had the trough over us.

    As to what is causing the greater amplification of the jet, there’s surely a bright future for any met who could explain and document this. Is it a result of Global Warming, pollution from all the coal that China is burning. That polution drifts out over the Pacific. Is it altering the Polar Jet in the Western Pacific? Inquiring minds would like to know.

    • Punxsutawney (aka HIOPHIL) at work by Sunset High elev ~280' says:

      Oops, this was supposed to be a reply to Ashley’s question below.

    • Andrew Johnson says:

      Where in Eastern Kentucky is your family farm? My dad grew up in Ashland.

    • Garron near washington square says:

      That’s a good analogy. As I understood it, it takes a while for the PDO shifts, just like how temperature lags occur in seasonal shifts, our winter weather should improve as we get deeper into the colder PDO.

      I would suspect that the extra particulates generated in the atmosphere by China and other nations to our west might have some key effects on our weather. I would tend to think that we would get more rainfall than normal as water droplets form around pollution/dust molecules.

      There are so many factors that play into weather, that I’d find it hard to pinpoint what is creating a deviation in normal jet stream flows. It could be human caused, volcanic, it could be Karl Bonner growing palm trees in the Dalles for all we know…Just being sarcastic Karl.

  11. Yevpolo1990 says:

    hmm finally the weather is picking up a bit…

    • Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

      It is?

    • Gordon (Vancouver) says:

      Care to elaborate? I’m not seeing it.

    • W7ENK says:

      Methinks that was sarcasm??? o_O

    • Garron near washington square says:

      I did see that we have an air stagnation advisory. That’s pretty darn exciting! lol 🙂

    • Boydo3 500' North Albany says:

      rain this weekend.

    • Yevpolo1990 says:

      GFS is hinting cold air in la la land, enough to give us snow and such…
      I think about 4 runs have done so.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      ? 18Z sure didn’t ….

      Yev, this is constructive criticism aimed to help, but look up info before you post. Don’t take it personal, but you hurt your credibility when you post things like this without looking at the models.

    • Gordon (Vancouver) says:

      12Z did out past 300 hrs but I didn’t see anything remotely screaming snow on the 18Z. Maybe four runs over the last 4 or 5 days have showed something but always out after 300 hrs. I don’t get excited until it’s consistently there and moving up in the time frame.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      I see nothing to indicate anything close. Just 1 or 2 outlier runs the past week? Ensembles didn’t look good either.

    • bgb41 says:

      If nothing shows up in the long range in the next 10 days or so, we are pretty much done for the season. The Feb 15th cutoff date for arctic air is closing in on us quickly.

    • Yevpolo1990 says:

      its ok to criticize me, but i am sure if you see -1 850 temps for the first time in 4/5 days ahead of us then you would feel the same way as me.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      -1c …. means nothing for us though.

      Maybe 00Z tonight is friendlier, not counting on it.

      Go Blazers! 6 in a row tonight!

    • Yevpolo1990 says:

      ZERS ALL THE WAY!

  12. Ashley Watson says:

    Thanks,
    to those that chimed in on my question earlier about why the east coast and other parts of the world get more below normal events and above normal snow than we do. I realize that the mountains and the pacific ocean play a big part in our weather but that still doesn’t explain it for me. Think about this if new york city gets mega record breaking snow or cold 3 winters out of 10 but the pnw has 3 winters out of a 100 with record breaking weather that dosen’t seem fair. I mean the east coast has been able to break their own snow and cold records just in the last 10-20 years whereas here in the pnw there are many records that still stand from before the 1970’s. I don’t think that is all the fault of the mountains and pacific ocean. The point is we get less record breaking events than we used to and the east coast seems to have more or atleast the same amount they have always been getting so what is the reason???

    • Karl Bonner says:

      Well we had December 2008 and December 2009. Not record breakers but pretty dang cold. And between 2002 and 2006, three of the five Halloween nights were phenomenally cold. And what about April 2008?

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      Did you say fair. Weather in not fair or unfair. It just is. With fairly warm ocean waters on 50 miles away, and a 10,000 ft mountain range just 50 miles the other way we are in a lousy spot if you want to see record breaking weather events. That’s just the way it is. I don,t want to seem mean about it but man does not yet control weather, and so weather just happens. The best we can hope to do is forecast it with some degree of accuracy and hope to mitigate the damage with proper warnings. But weather will never be fair.

    • Andrew Johnson says:

      Halloween 2002 broke the all-time Eugene October cold record I believe and then 2006 broke it.

    • PDX Weather Nut says:

      If you look over the decades this area has gotten less and less snow. A few decades ago snow and colder temperatures were much more common here in the valley. There have been some exceptions but the overall pattern has been towards warmer winters and much hotter summers.

  13. Josh "The Snowman" From Everett, WA says:

    Doubt this ridge ever materializes.

    Look out for Feb. 3rd-10th.

  14. Ashley Watson says:

    Hey everbody!!!!!!!!!

    I need some help here. I am trying to fugure out wy the east coast and for that matter the rest of the world seems to get more below normal anomalies than here in the pnw. I mean on the east coast they have had multiple years with -3 or more degree departures from nov-mar and record snow. It’s dosen’t seem fair. The comparison i would use is if you and a friend were given a cookie by an adult and 9 times out of ten you got 1/4 of the cookie and they got the other 3/4. you would think 50/50 or mabey 40/60 but the east coast and other places get below normal epic for them weather and we get left out. Why the inbalance. How would i even go about researching a topic like this. Does anybody have any thoughts?

    • Josh in Puyallup says:

      The Rockies and the Cascades keep the cold air trapped in the east and north. We’re surrounded by mountains and have the influence of the Pac. Ocean.

      I could be wrong though.

    • W7ENK says:

      That sounds about right, Josh. 90+% of the time when cold Arctic air blasts down from Alaska/Canada, the Rockies divert it off into the Plains states. Sometimes, a portion of that will spill over into Oregon and Washington, but the Cascades again divert that little bit away from the Western Valleys. Combine those two diversions with strong Westerly influence off the warm Pacific Ocean, and we regularly get screwed out of cold and snow. Only when the Arctic air slides out over the Ocean and down the west side of the Rockies and Cascades do we see cold (modified) Arctic air this far west. It’s “modified”, because travelling over the warmer Pacific waters will moderate temperatures in the Arctic airmass before it moves into our area. If I’m not mistaken, I believe it’s extremely rare to get true Arctic air into our area.

      Someone like Rob could probably summarize this better.

    • Longview - 400 ft says:

      Hello Ashley,

      About the only time we could see temps lower than 0 (Zero) degrees, is when High pressure is parked over Western Canada bringing air directory towards the PNW from the north or more northeast. It almost happened last year, but the direct route of air was cut off by western winds off the the Pacific Ocean. Otherwise, it would have gotten very cold, then I have ever seen in Washington, for a few days at least. Remember, air in high pressure rotates in a clockwise manner. Opposite for Low pressure systems. Another thing to study is air flow of the current Low & High pressure systems going on around North America, North Pole, Pacific Ocean, etc. Just is just the beginning. LOL Hope this helps. I am sure others, like the gentlemen above me, can add more to help you out.

  15. Azzurri says:

    12z ecmwf looks interesting by next weekend.

  16. bgb41 says:

    12z GFS @ Troutdale

    Warm and dry with possible retrogression around day #15
    I predict 18Z/00Z runs will eliminate this but we will see.

    • JohnD says:

      Yeah warm and dry with possible retrogression by day 365! About another week–if nothing substantive is gaining strength, I will be making “my call”–like a lot of you.

      Not unlike your favorite team which has been pretty good for a while but this year sucks! And the team that just beat you has your inlaws entire family as alumnus! My dear wife is from New England where they are having ALL the fun while we are getting zero, zip, nada. I mean how disappointing is that!

      Just 42 more days until we are out of the Portland “theoretical winter weather window”. (March 7 in my book.)

      CANNOT WAIT!

    • Yevpolo1990 says:

      imcorrect

  17. Punxsutawney (aka HIOPHIL) at work by Sunset High elev ~280' says:

    Yes, it’s in La-la, but long range the 12z GFS gives us a bit of snow. It’s been showing retrogression at the end of the run for a few runs now, but It’s also been generally moving it back in time a bit each run.

    Still…maybe something to look forward to?

    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kttd

  18. Cgavic sandy Oregon 1,100 ft says:

    Actually, we had rain last night

  19. Cgavic sandy Oregon 1,100 ft says:

    Lo of 30 at our sandy location
    Mostly sunny conditions after yesterday’s cloudy and widespread sprinkles. Big drops.

  20. Jethro (Canby ~187') says:

    12z NCEP-GFS remains mild out to major la-la-land (hr 360) when it suggests a low will cruise through the state headed SE, and bring colder air behind it.

  21. bgb41 says:

    Coldest Day of the Year today in New England:

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off&issuedby=BOX&product=RWR

    Currently at 11am EST:
    -17 at Mt Washington, NH with 67 mph winds
    5 degrees at Boston with winds gusting 25-30mph.

  22. Ben Randall says:

    by the way just for the record I NEVER said winter is over ….we all know weird things can happen in FEB/MARCH

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Yes, I remember many times having at least wet snow/sleet/graupel during Spring Break. In February we still may have a small chance of decent snowfall, but February is mostly known for its cold temperatures, not snow. And I think everyone is looking for ‘several inches deep’ kind of snowfall which is almost out of the question for the rest of winter.

    • Andrew Johnson says:

      Hey February 1989, 1990, 1993, and 1995 all delivered the goods. There was also about an inch or two of snow in late Feb 1996. The 28th of Feb, 1996 was supposed to bring snow to the Willamette Valley, but there was a raging offshore flow and it totally ate up all the moisture north of Albany. Eugene got a decent snowfall out of it, but it also cleared out and hit 50 down there that day I believe. So chances are even if we get a nice snowfall after mid-feb it won’t stick around.

  23. bgb41 says:

    1/23/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:72 at RED MOUND(1753 ft)
    Low: 59 at RED MOUND(1753 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:33 at Government Camp(3600 ft) & HARL BUTTE(6071 ft) & SCHNEIDER MEADOW(5400 ft)
    Low: 7 at CRAZYMAN FLAT (6100 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 44 degrees
    CRAZYMAN FLAT ( 51/7 ) (6100 ft )

  24. Ryanintd says:

    wasn’t it just last late spring or early summer 2010 that we had snow up at timberline lodge? here in the eastern gorge i remember we got snow until i think almost the end of may or possibly into june. fruit season was horrible last year, so maybe we will have another weird spring. also we did not get as hot as we usually do in the summer. plus i said to my family that there will be snow on my birthday, feb 2, hell hath no fury when ryan does not get snow in his birthday 😉

  25. I doubt the ridge is as strong as initially forecast a day or two ago. Already looking like it won’t be as strong and could start breaking down this coming weekend.

  26. bgb41 says:

    00Z GFS @ Troutdale

    0.05″ of rain (Very dry still). No sign of changes. Basic ridging over the west coast throughout the period.

  27. Muxpux says:

    I thought we were supposed to be dry, been rainin in Longview the past few hours

  28. pappoose in scappoose says:

    I’ll enjoy the dry weather this week, hopefully a blasting east wind will clear us out. The only breath of hope I can find comes from the NWS.

    THE ECMWF IS SHOWING SIGNS OF A PATTERN SHIFT LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. DID NOT CHANGE THE EXISTING FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY JUST YET AS THE GFS ENSEMBLES FOR SAT ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES…NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND WETTER. HPC SEEMS TO FAVOR A STRONGER RIDGE…NOT ALLOWING AS MUCH ENERGY TO IMPACT THE
    AREA. WEISHAAR

  29. Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

    Each model run that doesn’t bring the NW cold or snow is just another nail in the coffin. If we did get any cold or snow in mid to late Feb it will be short lived. Both cold snaps we had this year were short lived and I don’t see any change in the long term either.
    If anyone wants prolonged cold and snow cover there going to have to go to the mountains or east of the rockies. Just because the CPC says we get below average temps Feb thru Apr doesn’t mean it’s likely.All that means is they just cursed the NW.

    • pdxgeologist says:

      Below average temps does NOT = valley snow – prolonged or otherwise.

    • W7ENK says:

      I’m almost willing to put money on the fact that Portland WILL NOT see any sticking snowflakes (officially at PDX) between now (Jan 23rd, 2011) and June 1st, 2011. Almost, but not quite. Anyone wanna challenge that? I just MIGHT put $100.00 USD on it, if anyone wants to play.

      Is that legal?

      Is it against the rules, Mark?

    • Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

      Your right that below average temps doesn’t mean it will snow. What I said was I would be surprised if the CPC’s prediction that we have below normal temps Feb thru Apr actually happens. Up until now everything that was predicted for this winter has been a bust. The North Atlantic Oscillation has caused the NW to see el-nino like conditions. The facts speak for themselves.

    • W7ENK says:

      Anyone?
      No one??
      Really???

    • Sifton says:

      I tried to say that same forecast a month or so ago W7, but was scorned quite heavily by some long time weather “pros” here on this site. Not going to call people out (at least till April Fools Day) then we’ll see who has the last smart a$$ remark won’t we!!

    • Garron near washington square says:

      I’m sorry, but the CPC’s CRAP-A-RIFFIC forecast for the entire winter was for (Below average temps and Above average precip.) . Now, they continue the trend casting, why would I want to believe that absurd prediction from them now, when every model for the last 2+ months has shown an arctic blast around day 10 and that hasn’t happened either (for the most part)? It’s nice to dream big, but that is why you buy a lotto ticket or go to Vegas. You got better odds of paying off than a long range forecast or an even worse climate long prediction.

    • Ben (Beaverton, 775 ft.) says:

      The self acclaimed “most knowledgeable weather person on this blog” Josh the snowman seems pretty confident W7…he should be willing to put his money where his mouth is. Right?

  30. PaulB/Eugene says:

    9 of 22 La Nina winters (from database Stormfax.com) had no January snowfall in Corvallis since 1900. So there is about a 40% chance of no snow in the south Willamette Valley in January of La NIna winters historically. 65% of all winters since 1900 have had January snowfall (accumulating) in Corvallis…or 35% of all winters have had no January snowfall…the difference between 35% and 40% is not all that great. Note this is not snowfall totals…just whether or not there was ANY accumulating snow.

    I thought we would get late winter snow (late in January)…so my forecast busted..but this will pan out to be just another lame January…face it…many Januaries in PacNW are lame. Things can still change. It was nice outside today.

    • PaulB/Eugene says:

      That being said..hard not to be irked by tonights GFS run…850mb temps <0C for only 24 hours of the 16 day period.

    • Boydo3 500' North Albany says:

      Wonder how long it will be before the “drought” word starts circulating. Low snow pack now after last week’s deluge, probably as low or lower than last year at this time.

    • Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

      The mountain snow pack is a big part of our overall water supply, but I don’t think we need to worry about a drought any time too soon. We have had above average precipitation for many consecutive months now. We may manage an above average January even with the current and forthcoming dry weather.

      With that being said, it sure would be nice to see a storm dump 5′ of snow over a few days down to 2,500 ft or so to resurrect the snowpack.

    • Boydo3 500' North Albany says:

      5′ would be great!

  31. Jake-(Gresham) says:

    I have to say that even though this weather is totally the opposite of what many of us would expect for a winter it was nothing but perfect for my Uncle’s wedding yesterday. Sunny blue skies, no wind and 55 degrees. 🙂

  32. Josh "The Snowman" From Everett, WA says:

    For those of you that have been crying that winter has been over for the past 2 weeks at least. Funny, you have been crying that winter is over in early and mid January, talk about comedy:

    Oh, and a couple of these are you, Ben.

    Tyler says:
    March 11, 2006 at 3:03 pm
    I received a total of 2.2″ of snow during the event. Highest amount on the ground was 1.1″ early Thursday morning. Measured during peak snow before it settled and/or melted.
    Tyler Mode
    Vancouver, 276′

    Ben says:
    March 10, 2006 at 8:05 pm
    There was about 7 1/2 inches of snow at mountain park, 980 feet.
    At 475 feet about 5 inches. Very good quality snow.
    Lots of fun!

    Ben Randall (tillamook city) says:
    March 9, 2009 at 9:05 am
    still snowing in tillamook

  33. Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

    Tell us how you really feel Ashley.

  34. Ashley Watson says:

    with all this exciting weatherhappening lately i wanted to remind everybody that this winter basically puked and took a dump on us and didn’t even apologize.
    For the forseable future mark should put a plate with a steeming heep of dung on it for his 7 day forecast because that is what we have to look foward to.

    • W7ENK says:

      That happened to me once… he was only a year old at the time. o_O I still hold it over his head, good for a few laughs now. You’ll get over it, soon enough. 😆

    • Runrain says:

      I dunno. I kinda like this weather. Its PERFECT for running. I may have to change my name to RunNoRain, though. Or maybe RunRainless. Or RunDry. Maybe RunInversion?

    • Ben (Beaverton - 775 ft.) says:

      I agree…now let’s lose the fog.

  35. Josh "The Snowman" From Everett, WA says:

    Could they be this wrong??? I’ve noticed with each successive run the ridging is getting weaker. They must be seeing something:

    • Ben (Beaverton - 775 ft.) says:

      Could they be wrong??? Are you kidding me? When have they been right? That craptastic CPC forecast has about a snowball’s chance in a microwave of verifying. Admit it, winter’s over!! Move on…find another hobby!

    • Josh "The Snowman" From Everett, WA says:

      Yep, because you know more than they do, Ben.

      Get real, winter is over and it’s still January *sarcasm*.

      If you really think that and can say that with a straight face then you are either very uneducated or messing with me.

      Models are changing as we speak. Ridge is not as strong and is consistently backing off with each run. I bet you in a few days it is retrograded and we get the goods within 10 days or so.

    • Ben (Beaverton - 775 ft.) says:

      “I bet you in a few days it is retrograded and we get the goods within 10 days or so.”

      HA HA HA!! Have you ever thought of a career in comedy??

      I bet you within 10 days, we’re looking at the same crap we’ve seen over the past 10 days.

      Use your brain…

    • Ben (Beaverton - 775 ft.) says:

      What makes you so certain this will happen? Has any model predicted a ridge to build in the southeastern USA? NOPE! Has the NAO gone positive?? NOPE! Has any model shown a retrograding ridge out to 150 W where we would need it? NOPE! Are we entering the coldest period in our Winter? NOPE! Time’s running out.

      Oh yeah, and stop wishcasting.

    • Josh "The Snowman" From Everett, WA says:

      Telling me to use my brain? Get lost, amateur!!

      Do a little research on this blog, study up on our climate, and come back. You are way out of your league.

    • Azzurri says:

      Ben, you mad?

    • Josh "The Snowman" From Everett, WA says:

      Just saw your last post……

      Due to the “type” of year it is. The fact that I just checked the calendar. The fact that I know PNW climate better than almost anyone on here other than a handful of bloggers. Did you ever stop to think that maybe I have some information from the NOAA office that you may not be privy to?

      Oh, and I will state it again. Saying that winter is over on January 23rd is ridiculous and I’m sure any meteorologist or local weatherperson would concur with that statement.

      Actually the fact that many of you have been saying winter is over for more than 2 weeks leads me to discount anything you really say. It is ridiculous and very ignorant sounding to make such a statement. Those of us with a little bit of knowledge know that we have time for some pretty fun events in the PNW through March. Are we talking 2 week long arctic outbreaks? Of course not. But definitely many, many, many, many, many more chances for lowland snow here still.

    • Ben (Beaverton - 775 ft.) says:

      Amateur?? If you only knew. Oh, and I can’t really say I’m impressed that you have some “privy” information from NOAA that no one else has, seeing that they’ve done such a bang up job with forecasting this or past winters…I think Mark will agree with that one.

      Again, I see comedy in your future.

    • Josh in Puyallup says:

      You guys do realize that Everett and Beaverton is 200 miles apart?

  36. Karl Bonner says:

    The Dalles airport stats for January 1-23 (includes today up through mid afternoon):

    Max: 59F
    Min: 15F
    Coldest High: 30F
    Warmest Low: 46F
    Averaged High: 45F
    Averaged Low: 51F
    Precip: 1.21″
    Days with measurable precip: 9

    =======

    But if you want some excitement, look only at the past eleven days.

    The Dalles Airport, Jan 13-23:

    Max: 59
    Min: 33
    Coldest High: 46
    Warmest Low: 46
    Averaged High: 53
    Averaged Low: 38
    Precip: 1.08″
    Days With Meas Precip: 6

    And there’s no sign of the trend turning cooler for at least another two days, thanks to the storm brushing by to our north and temporarily mixing any fogversion threats into oblivion. That gets us up to about two weeks of unseasonable warmth.

    Temps in the 50s…beautiful sunshine…moderate winds…a hint of green on the hillsides…and we get to look forward to tons of hot and dry weather in the summer that gives the landscape a pseudo-Mediterranean look. LET’S PRETEND WE’RE IN CALIFORNIA!

    • Garron near washington square says:

      Have you tried growing Eucalyptus Avacodo or Macadamia nut trees in The Dalles? Maybe you could transforma terra-firma into California.

  37. Andrew Johnson says:

    So I guess “some people” are trying to contend that this winter so far has been as good or better than 2007-08. For places south of the metro area or about 500-1000′ I think that is a laughable argument.

    • PDX Weather Nut says:

      I don’t see how this winter is as good or better than 07-08, metro area included.

    • SilentReader says:

      being at 1000ft I can say. With out a doubt. this winter is no where near 2008. Yes we have had snow and some has lasted for days up here. But it’s not even close. Now i can’t speak for those at the same or higher elevations in the southern valleys.

    • Andrew Johnson says:

      I’d imagine the southern valley was just fine. There was even a 6″ snowstorm in Eugene in late January, 2008.

  38. Yevpolo1990 says:

    Back from Warrenton, Oregon after conducting some military drills there. Weather was very sunny there on Saturday, coast was the spot to be on Saturday!

    I do see GFS is FINALLY placing 850 temps below 0c, am i dreaming? At least a little bit cooler with some east winds, I might visit during mid week to Crown Point. Oh well…I hear Euro looked good though?

  39. Holly in Eastmoreland says:

    The cherry trees at Reed College and also some in Eastmoreland started blooming today. My bulbs are 3-4 inches out of the ground (tulips already).

    • Garron near washington square says:

      Just crazy. Maybe this is the false spring we need to get winter back on track, either that or we’re going to have tulips for Valentines day?

    • Karl Bonner says:

      But those cherries are really early anyway, aren’t they? Big question is when the bulk of the flowering peach/plum trees kick into gear. Last year in Eugene they burst into full bloom immediately after Valentine’s. Normal date is probably about March 5-10.

  40. Cgavic sandy Oregon 1,100 ft says:

    Interesting. A few clouds today.

    We have 42 and sporadic sprinkles. Heavy clouds.

  41. W7ENK says:

    Is this the dreaded inversion y’all’ve been talking about, or is there something else up there holding this fog in place?

  42. Steve Pierce says:

    Aumsville Tornado Presentations Posted

    The Aumsville, Oregon tornado presentations from the Oregon AMS meeting last Thursday night at OMSI have now been posted! Please feel free to share these (via e-mail, social media, etc) with others who may be interested in viewing them. Total headcount for the meeting was 140, a new record high for an Oregon AMS monthly weeknight meeting. If you have any questions or concerns about the copyright of these presentations, please contact me and I will put you in touch with the appropriate author(s). Permission is granted to simply hyperlink to the AMS site url where these presentations currently reside.

    Due to the size of these presentations (anywhere from 1mb to 31mb) we have offered both PDF versions which are smaller files, yet have limited functionality, or the PowerPoint (ppt) versions with full functionality including animations, radar loops, etc. Please also note that due to server demand, downloads of the Jonathan Wolfe PPT (31mb) and Tyree Wilde PPT (18mb) presentations may take just a few minutes to complete. You must have PowerPoint installed to view these. If you do not, please select the PDF versions. All of these are great presentations and well worth the download wait time! If you are interested in joining the AMS or wish to renew your dues, please see our site for complete details.

    Please see tornado presentations here: http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon/Minutes/2011_1_20_Minutes.html

    Steve Pierce
    Vice President – Oregon Chapter of the American Meteorological Society (AMS)
    phone: (503)504-2075 e-mail: stevejpierce@comcast.net

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