Final Update: 10:30pm

Warming up nicely overhead with the top of the KPTV Tower (1,900′) above freezing, so we’ll see the areas of ice pellets start to dwindle and now it’s on to just liquid rain melting on contact in about 1/2 of the metro area where it is below freezing.   What a mess on I-205 in East Portland right now…traffic at a standstill or barely moving in a couple spots.  Looks messy on the eastside!

Warming is just approaching the Eugene area with a station at 1,200′ near the city suddenly jumping into the mid 40s.  I still see no reason that we won’t see a surge of southerly wind working up the Valley the 2nd half of tonight as models show with such a deep area of low pressure to our northwest. 

That said, there will be plenty of ice leftover east of I-205 for at least the first part of the morning commute.  I’ve found in the past that unless we get a ton of thick ice, roads improve pretty quickly with temps warming into the 40s.

Time to head home soon…I’ll drive slowly.  Freezing rain and 25 degrees there.

Hey, those long range maps are interesting.  Wait, let’s not start that yet…

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

286 Responses to Final Update: 10:30pm

  1. David Mall205 says:

    Wow it feels tropical compared to yesterday, 47° and steadyrain wind out of the south.

  2. pdxgeologist says:

    I like to visit a site that is run by a guy named Howard Scheckter. He’s an amateur met down in Mammoth, CA and he is generally very knowledgable and quite accurate in his weather analyses. He’s obviously a bit Sierra-centric, but his long range discussions seem to be technically sound. One thing I’ve noticed that he often discusses is the MJO – something I don’t see mentioned here much. Below is a copy of his most recent discussion and some links to MJO education sites. His blog is at http://mammothweather.com/.

    Sorry for the length of this post.

    “MJO:

    Still Intensifying and even growing stronger then forecasted for this time. The Dynamic models are adjusting.

    What does the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) do to the pattern over the pacific? It depends upon where it is, and how strong it is. As the “enhanced portion” (rising air….enhanced rainfall) moves into the western pacific, it modulates the westerlies. The GFS should begin to show a change in the pattern later this month.

    If it all works out…..As the enhanced state of MJO moves into the Western Pacific, (About the 25th of January} watch for strong amplification of a Trof-Ridge pattern with a large jump in amplitude in the west coast ridge. This feature should then build north up over Alaska with time….eventually becoming a large cut off upper Anti-Cyclone over AK.

    Phase space 7 into 8 the Atmosphere is in the Pseudo El Nino State. Expect a lower latitude upper Jet splitting off and under cutting the westerlies during the mature stage with the chance that a precip event will come to the west coast. Timing….sometime between the end of January and the first week of February. Good reading below…..”

    Remember that there is no guarantee at this time that this will happen. It is still quite speculative. However….this will be a lot of fun to follow!

    MJO Education:

    1. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/MJO_1page_factsheet.pdf

    2. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/MJO_summary.pdf

    Specifically in the #2 PDF file, there are some excellent visuals toward the very end of the file.

    Dr. Howard and the Dweebs…………………………………….:-)

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