Not any huge change in my thinking this evening, but a few minor changes:
1. Cold air is sure here! KPTV Tower temps at 1,900′ down below 25 degrees right now, already a good 5 degrees colder than the WRF-GFS sounding said it would be. And very dry air! Dewpoints in the teens across the Metro area right now.
2. Precipitation looks to arrive AFTER the evening commute, plus it’s going to be very light through 10pm or so. That doesn’t help with evaporational cooling, but models want to keep us right at freezing until midnight or so. I do notice our 4km RPM is colder than our 12km. That’s probably better
3. No snow; I eliminated all that wording out of my forecasts around 8pm.
4. The change from tomorrow evening to Wednesday morning’s commute will be remarkable…32 to 50 degrees in 12 hours!
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen