Late Evening Thoughts

Not any huge change in my thinking this evening, but a few minor changes:

1.  Cold air is sure here!  KPTV Tower temps at 1,900′ down below 25 degrees right now, already a good 5 degrees colder than the WRF-GFS sounding said it would be.  And very dry air!  Dewpoints in the teens across the Metro area right now.

2.  Precipitation looks to arrive AFTER the evening commute, plus it’s going to be very light through 10pm or so.  That doesn’t help with evaporational cooling, but models want to keep us right at freezing until midnight or so.  I do notice our 4km RPM is colder than our 12km.  That’s probably better

3.  No snow; I eliminated all that wording out of my forecasts around 8pm.

4.  The change from tomorrow evening to Wednesday morning’s commute will be remarkable…32 to 50 degrees in 12 hours!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

748 Responses to Late Evening Thoughts

  1. WhiteEagle - Garden Home/SW Portland says:

    Light snow on the Ore 18 @ Valley Junction cam, and more importantly, a thin coating of snow on some of the cars driving by.

    And even MORE importantly…I’m seeing the same very fine flurries here in Garden Home! Nothing to write home about…just enough to write to the blog.

  2. chiefWright says:

    The backedge of this band has crossed the coast. It’s dry in Newport right now. Yaquina jetty cam shows skybreaks. Even valley junction on hwy22 looks pretty dry.
    Yeah, Lincoln city is rather wet, but give it an hour.
    And look at the radar loop. All that green echo over the coast range is drying up when it hits the valley.
    Dewpoints in the valley are all very low and staying low as the precip hits. This airmass over the valley is a big sponge sucking all the hope out of us…..

  3. Sandi (Wilsonville) says:

    New blog update post.

  4. Wendy-Silverlake,WA says:

    I have a blob over me according to the radar, yet nothing is falling. The clutter is turned off, so I know it’s heavier and it’s yellow, but still nothing coming out of the sky. Temp is bouncing back and forth. Currently I’m at 33.0 but just dropped to 32.9 and DP is still at 25. Oops, now 24…..that’s how much changing it is doing.

  5. EA_TTD says:

    TTD real-time observation:

    13:53 31.6 °F 18.1 °F 30.08in ENE 39.0mph

  6. Keith says:

    Is more precip coming or is this the only batch?!

  7. Ben Randall says:

    Starting to stick over by DMV in Tillamook

  8. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    I just had the tiniest snow flurry known to man-kind. I got excited and jumped up and down.

    Okay, not really….

    32.5, DP 12, very gusty loud east winds.

  9. David Mall205 says:

    The souther low looks to how lost steam and looks to be moving onshore soon in northern cali, north low still looks confused still moving ne…? looks like on water vapor a nice little batch of moisture pushing in behind the two. Discuss.

  10. Snowhound says:

    Ok there loooks to be a lot of moisture about to come over the top of us in the Portland area many hours before I thought Mark said it would…and it’s cold.

    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/radar.shtml

    Is this stuff going to be snow??

  11. jake at the lake says:

    @ WhiteEagle – Garden Home/SW Portland says:
    January 11, 2011 at 1:30 pm

    He is a great forecaster…maybe he’s seeing something we’re not?

    ????or maybe hes seeing nothing we are:)

  12. chiefWright says:

    Temps are slightly increasing in the Corvallis/Monmouth area, but dewpoints are still staying low. Think this dry airmass is still sponging up whatever is coming in.

    • Brian (Corvallis) says:

      Kind of strange, Corvallis in the last 15 minutes has had a mix of snow, sleet, rain and now snowing again.

  13. PDX Weather Nut says:

    It’s 32 degrees outside the house here in NE Portland. Very windy out of the gorge! NOT looking forward to 50 degree temps tomorrow … too warm!

  14. 37 warm degrees currently under cloudy skies…..Td 23.0….currently calm…

    Don’t think I’ll see much in the frozen dept. around here.

    • NoRepeat says:

      I’m just south of Orchards, and the temp here just dropped from 35.7 to 34.1. Don’t count us out just yet.

  15. 32.6° and now getting some very light, very fine snowfall.

  16. Sandi (Wilsonville) says:

    Fox12Weather has updates via Twitter/Facebook for 2 pm

    • fishinbeaverguy says:

      Here’s the update from FB.

      2pm Update:
      A band of showers/flurries is moving into the Coast Range. We expect SOME LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING RAIN showers between 3-6pm now. It’s slightly above freezing in most of the Metro area; still concerned mainly about beyond 7pm.
      SOME ROADS IN THE HILLS OR OTHER SPOTS COULD SEE SPOTS OF ICE FOR THE COMMUTE! A BORDERLINE SITU…ATION UNTIL AFTER DARK. IF YOU’RE CONCERNED…A GOOD REASON TO LEAVE WORK EARLY!

  17. Hmmmmmm…..
    Temp is pogo sticking between 36.4 – 36.7 up and down and up and down
    DP dropping again – now 30.8
    Wind NE @2
    Baro 30.03F

    Oh, and as I am finishing this: VERY light snow falling

  18. Ben Randall says:

    snowing in Tillamook

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