Ice/Snow Update: 2pm

Here is a synopsis (very brief) of what I think will happen the next 36 hours.  I sent this note to the newsroom. 

Sorry about the bold formatting; a bit hard to read.

Not much happening between now and tomorrow afternoon.  Just colder and windy as the east wind starts ramping up out of the Gorge…

 
Here are the main points: 
1.      It’s looking less and less like a “storm” and more like a 
few hours of freezing rain tomorrow night.  
2.      Forget about snow…it appears far more likely we’ll start 
with ice pellets or freezing rain.
3.      It’s going to warm up very quickly Wednesday morning.  
Then many days of very warm rain follow. 
 
FORECAST:
 
TONIGHT:  Mostly clear, windy, colder…25-30
TUESDAY:  Clouding up, colder…36
 
TUESDAY EVENING (probably AFTER commute): Areas of light freezing rain develop
could be spotty the first few hours, could mix with snow or ice pellets too.
TUESDAY OVERNIGHT:  Areas of freezing rain, this should be the “slipperiest” time.  
Temps hover around freezing.
WEDNESDAY AM:  Leftover icy spots, but IT MIGHT NOT BE A BIG ISSUE?  We’ll see.
 
WEDNESDAY MIDDAY-PM:  Warm, windy, rainy…high near 50!
THURSDAY-SUNDAY:  Rain at times…highs near 50 each day
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

595 Responses to Ice/Snow Update: 2pm

  1. cherie in vernonia says:

    link to radar showing frzn precip please….thanks!

  2. PDX Weather Nut says:

    How about “The Big Disappointment”? Considering what was forecasted only a few days ago this sounds like it’ll suck.

  3. CoastRange says:

    Does this thing (tonights event) have a name? Could it be “The Big Lebowski”?

  4. CoastRange says:

    @1200ft just west of Forest Grove been holding a steady 27F for awhile now. Supposedly the humidity is 47% but the feel in the air and the 5-10mph breeze are making me percieve it as quite a bit colder. Likely just the wind chillin my bones.

  5. snowcastin' says:

    moisture on it’s way…..just in time for the evening commute! fun fun

  6. Thomas says:

    The GFS 00z has the low going farther south than the rest of the models GFS and NAM mostly has the surface low going in to Canada putting us almost entirly on the warm side of this thing. the GFS 00z gives the best shot at snow but it looks unlikely that we will get much the east wind will keep us cold for a while so some freezing rain sounds likely but it looks like this one was a pritty big bust

  7. Ben Randall says:

    Yes I know I keep saying wintry mix possible at any elevations , but don’t we ALL wish for it and can have our own forecast …Sorry if any forecast I said was a crime

  8. pappoose in scappoose says:

    New post folks.

  9. PortBlazerFan says:

    Most of the time computer models are correct about 95% of the time. Weather forecasting has come a long ways in the last 40-50 years. Meteorologists aren’t perfect and don’t deserve to have there face rubbed in it. Meteorologists see the same models, charts, and graphs that we do and are spectators like everyone else in Mother Nature’s game called weather.
    So that being said I wouldn’t be surprised to see snow flakes tomorrow but I wouldn’t count on it.
    -Mike (PortBlazerFan)

    • PDX Weather Nut says:

      Depends on which models and what time you are noting the percentage. Remember just last week when all the models seemingly had a major winter storm starting today or tomorrow?

  10. Dave_in_Troutdale says:

    East winds definitely picking up now! Finally… Just had a gust of 40 mph. Time for battle?!?!

  11. Wendy-Silverlake,WA says:

    28.7, DP 22. I honestly don’t know how you all deal with the east winds. It’s very seldom we get them here, but wow, they’re cold. I wasn’t cold last week during our cold snap, but with that very, very slight east wind, it just feels frigid.

  12. Yevpolo1990 says:

    29 and 16

  13. Josh (Gresham) says:

    28.7

  14. Roman~Snow-Zone says:

    Temp 27.9F DP 25F.

  15. stevied (North Portland) says:

    Brrrrr. Only 12 degrees at Govt Camp right now.

  16. Jerry says:

    First to admit my lack of weather knowledge.
    But man, the satellite images sure look different from the computer models.

    BIG SNOW, most likely not, but more than expected, I think possible, maybe?

  17. pdxgeologist says:

    I’m most bummed about the serious hit the ski areas are going to take. January should be prime powder time. Hopefully we’ll get it back in spades starting in a couple of weeks. Night all.

  18. W7ENK says:

    Wow, this got outta hand really fast! 😯

    35 degrees at the onset of moisture tomorrow in Portland, frozen precip confined East of Multnomah Falls.

    I’m done for the night.

  19. poolsidemike says:

    geez dudes….you ALL need to go to bed! Hats off to Rob for maintaining a great attitude through a disappointing “event”. This is a freakin’ weather blog guys…even if Mark still had a “sandbox” up, you all are breaking all the rules anyway by making personal attacks, etc. I watch this blog because I am learning a ton from some of you and respect many of you.
    But tonight you guys have turned this into a joke with all this rhetoric. Don’t be surprised if Mark does what he did a month or so ago…just turns the damn thing off for awhile. That would really suck for those of us who want to know what’s going on with the WEATHER especially when there is some level of excitement coming up in the next 24 hours!!

    • Roman~Snow-Zone says:

      Exactly. Foolish speak benefits no one. It just plants seeds of hate/bitterness in another’s heart. Be gentle and slow to anger..

  20. Andrew Johnson says:

    Well the NWS has issue a winter weather advisory for the mid-valley. Up to 1″. Down to 24 here in Silverton.

  21. after long day in the office and catching the end of the big game, checked into the latest GF and NAM, and the WV + IR sat imagery. Looks like surface development on 40N heading sort of due east, i dont see that on the models. Thats not a fake low center, thats a real one…. maybe a forecast bust in the works? temp 30F dewpoint 18F here with steady offshore breeze (no gorge here!). It aint over till its over, unless of course you are a duck (sorry, husky fan here)

  22. Kyle From Silverton says:

    The Fox 12 Super Sports Blog! Sponsrod by Mark Nelson only viewable on Internet Explorer:

    Sorry
    No FireFox/Chrome.etc allowed. 😦

  23. RobWaltemate says:

    NE of Long Beach
    Temp 33.3 DP 32.3 (96% RH)
    Barometer 1023.6 (elevation 20′)
    Wind 4G12 SSW

    got about 0.04″ of rain centered around noon. Some squishy drops mixed in, but no snow. Wind is picking up some; presure trend is downward.

    Going to be intresting the next 24 hrs! 🙂

  24. Josh (Gresham) says:

    So it still looks like out here we could get the brunt of the storm in the Metro

    • Brad says:

      Go to bed Josh…then get up and go to school.

      Peace. Out.

    • Josh (Gresham) says:

      Dude STFU and stop acting ll hard cause your an adult, it was a question

    • PortBlazerFan says:

      You’ll be lucky if they issue a 2 hour late opening if that. My guess is they’ll put buses on snow routes just to be safe and that’s it.

    • bgb41 says:

      You both need to stop. Seems like both of you are being quite rude. You guys will not last long on here if you don’t behave.

    • Josh (Gresham) says:

      Ya wanna hear the worst part? We already have a 2 hour delay scheduled as a normal thing Wed. But luckily the GBSD always is the quickest to close

    • TAGinGresham says:

      Not necessary Brad, especially if you are implying you are the adult in this situation. You said good night a long time ago, but had to come back and have the last word. I agree with Rob, this back and forth does nothing for the blog, but everyone wants to be right. Oh well!

    • Josh (Gresham) says:

      And who knows, we can still hope for a storm. 12/29/09 was supposed to be a fizzle too

  25. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Well that’s it for me. Bad headache and sleepy. I’m kind of glad given the pissy mood on the blog tonight doesn’t make it very enjoyable to post, so people lighten up and relax. Things can be much worse. Focus on better things….

    30.0, DP 12.

    Good night.

  26. Runrain says:

    Time for another verse of Let It Snow

    Well, were all just a little bit spite-ful,
    Getting set to take a bite-ful,
    Only weather and I must say soooo,
    Let it go, let it go, let it go

  27. Josh (Gresham) says:

    Rob, is there any chance we get a good storm?

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Nah… ZR is our main concern now.

    • Josh (Gresham) says:

      Well i meen ZR or snow. I’m 15, anything that can get me outta school sounds good lam. Lemme rephrase, Can we still get a significant ice storm?

    • pbo9 says:

      Its 27 here and clear with E wind to 20 occasionally. Too bad the Ducks lost but it was a hard fought game.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      It depends on how much steady moisture moves inland while we still have cold low level air at the surface. That’s still not 100% known.

      Good night.

  28. PortBlazerFan says:

    The NWS just put the final nail in the coffin. They just issued a winter weather advisory for the Greater Portland area. They expect around an inch of snow then a quarter inch of ice followed by rain after midnight.
    WOW WHAT A QUICK TRANSITION, MOTHER NATURE WON’T EVEN GIVE US A CHANCE TO ENJOY IT.

  29. Brad says:

    Why do I get the feeling that the sudden vitriol on the blog has a lot more to do with the Ducks losing tonight than the weather? Sheesh guys, get over it. It’s football and weather…hardly meaningful things in the grander scheme of things. Go take your anger out on your X-Box.

    Sheesh, I guess that’s what I get for checking in one last time this evening.

    • W7ENK says:

      It’s only compounding the overall mood.

    • Josh in Puyallup says:

      You don’t have to be here.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      I’m very disappointed in the Ducks. We sure picked the worst time to play what was probably our worst offensive game of the year(or against Cal?) Our defense was GREAT. Way too many trick plays, too many screens to the short side of the field, and bad play calling on 3rd down to run up the middle against their defense. Ah well….

      I’m not going to let it affect how I post towards others.

    • ORCityKC says:

      funny, I’ve been blowing things up in CoD’black ops’ ever since the end of that game….feeling a little better now!

    • bgb41 says:

      There’s a lot of very young people on here who cannot accept the disappointments in life. So I guess they can take it out on me then. I am a big boy.

    • Brad says:

      Yeah, but seriously Brian, I thought you had to be at least 13 to post. LOL.

    • W7ENK says:

      Are the kids rioting in the streets of Eugene yet?

    • Lono says:

      Hi everyone…I am new to this area but have a great fascination with weather. I too have been watching the models (but don’t fully understand them). My untrained eye says differently…has anyone taken a peek at the latest sat. loop? It might be my imagination (and probably is…what do you all call it…wishcasting?)but it sure looks like the low has fallen apart, redeveloped and taken a sincere eastward track taking it to a projected path straight across OR. According to the models I have seen it would need to back up several hundred miles and then head north to meet model expectations. Again, not an expert, just an observation. Cheers to whatever the weather brings!

    • alohabb says:

      They can only riot in Eugene if the quicky mart is out of Doritos!!!

    • Rich says:

      Camas, Prune Hill

      Temp 28.3°, wind ESE 19mph

      Gust: NE 36
      Dew Point: 17°F

    • TAGinGresham says:

      The problem is, everyone feels the need to have the last word, or jab. Everyone needs to take a step back, and before they hit that send button re-read what you are about to post. Making blanketed statements, whether it is for 5in.of snow or for 0 in. of snow is not helpful. State the facts and leave it at that. Personal attacks should not be happening, and only diminish peoples opinions of you. None of us know for sure what’s going to happen, and so it’s not worth getting all wound up about. I think everybody needs a stiff drink and a good nights sleep myself!

    • Danny in Troutdale says:

      I’m a teenager and I only roit if someone is out of funions and Mt. Dew!

  30. Ben Randall says:

    14.4 and 34 and still going lower east winds really going

  31. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    I think what is going on tonight is we all want snow/cold so badly that we just don’t want to believe the models are locked in. We don’t want to believe that the bust is approaching. Some of you are in denial trying to hold onto hope, trying to grasp at straws, I understand this, but c’mon don’t get all crappy about it or to others.

  32. Currently 30.8F and dense fog.

  33. william johnson says:

    what i think is so funny is i have heard this many many many time over the years looks like we are in for a big huge snow storm. then maybe 12 to 24 hours before it hits we come to find out that its not gonna turn out to be very much of anything . Its really beginning to peeve me . why do weather personalities have to get our hopes up a week before it hits then dash them i keep getting sick of it over and over and over makes me want to move to a climate where at least it does happen when they say its gonna happen.

    • W7ENK says:

      What has always bugged me the most is when they say on the 11pm news “We’ll get 3 to 6 inches of snow overnight” and you wake up at 7am, look out the window and everything is … wet.

      It’s like, c’mon, really? You couldn’t see that 8 hours out?!? 😡

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Those “weather personalities” aren’t degreed mets. They do not have any weather knowledge, do not look at any model data/output, soundings, etc. That’s why.

  34. Josh (Gresham) says:

    Holding steady at 29 here. Wind is steadily at 15-17

  35. Andrew Johnson says:

    Down to 25.4 here in Silverton. I’m pleased with that. The game. Not so much. But it was a classic. Auburn will probably have to forfeit it in a couple years.

  36. PaulO says:

    NWS Portland snoozing on posting new AFD…

  37. bgb41 says:

    Latest 00Z GFS is holding precip off till 1am Wednesday now at Troutdale.

    Hour 33 data:
    Temp: 33 deg
    850mb Temp: +2C

    Hmm..Snow??…Not possible..So sorry!!

    • Ben (Beaverton, 775 ft.) says:

      Dude, why are you always so negative?? Were you bullied as a child or something?

    • Josh (Gresham) says:

      Seriously. Could you please F*** off and go to Cali or something

    • bgb41 says:

      Negative? Thats model output.

      Just stating the facts.

    • W7ENK says:

      Negative? He posted model output data, how is that being negative?

    • Copper says:

      It was more so in the context that it sounded too pushy

    • Brad says:

      Josh, you’re getting too emotional dude. Are you a big Oregon fan or something. Chill out bro.

    • Ben (Beaverton, 775 ft.) says:

      Oh, I forgot…you are the definition of a “model rider” with your little gfs extracted data program that you find necessary to show off EVERY run…sorry.

    • Yevpolo1990 says:

      Yup he is, never reads models on maps, just reads extractee data

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      People, relax…. He shows every model output whether it’s hot or cold. So what if he makes a small comment or has an opinion. Must be a full moon or some sort of moon… or the Gorton’s Fisherman is to blame.

    • Marc (East Vancouver) says:

      Hahahhahaah

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      That’s laughable that he doesn’t read models.

      I will say that the I disagree with model output. 850mb temps could be colder thanks to the cold dome built up from the east winds tonight and Tuesday. That is often the case.

    • Brad says:

      You too Ben? Brian’s just posting data and expressing an opinion. That you don’t like it, or more to the point, that you’re flying off the handle about his posts says a lot more about you than him. It’s just weather after all, calm down.

    • bgb41 says:

      At least I dont wishcast Yev. You give bad forecasts to the public and when you are wrong you always deny it.

      BTW, did everyone see Marks post above saying forget about getting snow?

    • Yevpolo1990 says:

      Post me a map last time bgb analyzed, dare you

    • Mark closed the sandbox too soon. LOL

    • Ben (Beaverton, 775 ft.) says:

      Whatever pegasus boy…I fine here bro. Don’t worry about me.

    • Josh (Gresham) says:

      Not an oregon fan, far from it haha

    • Copper says:

      Okay I’m considered part of the public but things are getting a little tense let’s just simmer down.

    • bgb41 says:

      Why should I post a map Yev. If its not your forecast then its just stupid isn’t it?

      Heck you even threaten to call police on people who disagree with you on the weather for god’s sake.

      What kind of immature person does that make you?

      Still calling for 2-5″ of snow are ya?

    • pgiorgio says:

      Why? Too many idiots on this blog posting senseless gfs extracted longterm temp data. Old, very old and annoying stuff to have to sift over

    • pgiorgio says:

      Yev interned for Mark Nelsen and the geek calls the NWS for info the other night. I mean wtf is that?????????

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Sandbox rumble.. Yev, don’t play with the buried treasure.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Are you guys suggesting that bgb is not allowed to give his opinion. If you don’t like it just give your own ideas or take a long walk off a short pier.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      ENOUGH guys… jeez.

  38. Bishoy says:

    Rob, can you clarify where the low is right now? I see the circulation on the WV, but I can’t tell where the surface low is. The thing that I see spinning is heading into the Oregon/California border…definitely not our surface low.

  39. ShawninSalem says:

    30.3F/25.5F

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