Wind is Blowing!…Weather Geek Time

December 17, 2010

I just checked all the obs, models, and various pieces of weather info.  That was after a 2.5 hour  long Monopoly game with the kids…it was painful to not run over to the weather computer to see what was “going on”.  I’m not scheduled to work until the day after Christmas, so I’m free!  I have nowhere to be and no commitments for the next 20 hours.  I can geek out all night long if I want like the rest of you. 

The big picture:  I don’t see anything different or have any changed thoughts about the forecast for the next 10 hours.  Still think snow is unlikely…atmosphere is a bit too warm, and way to much mixing for MOST of the metro area.  As the easterly flow suddenly cuts off when the precip arrives around 4am over on the westside, that’s the best place to be I think.  Maybe Scappose too which is out of the wind zone and jammed up against the 2,000′ hills to the west?  Possible. 

I see the NWS has put up a wind advisory for the eastern suburbs.  The WRF-GFS is  insistent that the easterly wind coming off the south Washington Cascades should keep ramping up for the next 5 hours.  Still shows eastern Clark County with gusts up around 50 mph.  But I see one station in Battle Ground has already had a gust to 46, so will we see a 60 mph?  As mentioned last night, not real excited for gusts over 50 mph south of the Columbia River.

Otherwise the usual Gorge wind has produced a gust to 48 mph in SE Troutdale and 57 mph at Corbett School.  Bonney Slope school had a gust over 40 mph last hour…that’s up around Thompson and 120th in far NW Portland.

Good times…I know I’ll be waking up around 3am to see what happens when the precipitation arrives.  Or more likely 1:30am, 3:00am, 4:00am, etc…

Mark


Snow & Wind Update: Friday A.M.

December 17, 2010

I just looked at all the latest obs and model runs and see nothing different this morning.  All my thoughts are still the same as the previous post.  Since it’s a day off, I won’t spend the time to re-hash it all.  Anyone notice the 65 kts. at 2,000′ over PDX around 4am?  Never seen that.  And the 50 mph gusts forecast at the surface over Eastern Clark County?  Kind of surprised the NWS hasn’t hopped on that.  Maybe it won’t surface…we’ll see.

New models seem to be even a notch or two warmer than last night’s during the coldest of  the evaporational cooling around 4am Saturday.  If no one would have already mentioned snow, it barely would have crossed my mind.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen