A brand new week, December is just two days away, and we have a nice Pacific warm & cold frontal system headed inland tonight. Here are my thoughts:
1. For the Metro area, nothing too exciting. A good soaking starting with the commute tonight and continuing through most of tomorrow. No strong wind here due to easterly Gorge wind converging with the south wind running up the Valley. We won’t see excessive amounts of rain or wind. Too warm for anything frozen too. Easterly flow increasing through the Gorge today isn’t quite cold enough to bring freezing rain all the way into the east side of the metro area like it did Friday A.M.
2. High Wind Warning at the beaches? Marginal again, I really wish the NWS would be reserve these for stronger wind events. Last High Wind Warning (about two weeks ago) I think one spot had a peak gust of 58 mph. Steph and I were discussing that afterwards. Similar tonight with peak gusts in the 50 to 60 mph range. Remember that High Wind Warning criteria is peak gusts to 58+ mph.
3. Winter Storm Warning is up for snow/ice in Gorge and snow in Cascades. Looks good for both. I just checked forecast soundings and cross-sections. It’s marginal for snow/frozen precip. at freeway/river level in the Gorge, but probably still a decent dump of wet snow from Cascade Locks eastward (in the colder airmass east of the Cascades). Maybe 3-5″ at the lowest elevations, a few more inches in the higher Hood River and White Salmon Valleys. It’ll change to freezing rain by daybreak though as much warmer air moves in aloft. So I’d avoid I-84 until midday tomorrow. At that time temps should be at least 35 or so down at the lowest elevations. West of Cascade Locks the freeway should be fine. Likely some freezing rain in the hills east of Washougal and the Corbett area up above 500′ overnight before it warms up tomorrow.
After the cold front passes through Tuesday evening/night, the weather pattern really slows down until about 7 days from now. We sit in a cool trough the rest of the week and another system slides up through mainly Eastern Oregon Thursday/Friday. Watch out in the Blue Mountains for that one. Winter has started early this year over in northeast Oregon!
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen
Mark, is it possible to provide your television schedule in advance so we could keep up with you on Fox 12….it seems to be changing alot…thank you
…sounds like tri-cities is getting slammed by ice: http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=WAZ028&warncounty=WAC021&firewxzone=WAZ631&local_place1=11+Miles+SSW+Mesa+WA&product1=Ice+Storm+Warning
Wind has changed from the east to southwest in the last hour temp has gone up 3.5 F… boring.
Gett’n kinda breezy out there, but nothin’ to write home about. Just noticeable over the previous hours of dead calm. 4 to 10 G<18, just enough to fill the air (and the street) with the last of the remaining leaves.
Oh, that’s a SSE breeze, by the way. 😳
Breeze has switched, now SW 8 to 12 G~18 and increasing?
Lots of buzz kill on the blog today. Oh well, what will be will be. WAY too early to try and make all consuming definitive statements. And that is FOR SURE!
I WOULD call today the eptiome of a Portland, Oregon late fall day though: cold, dark, grey and wet.
I just clicked around the Gorge. Looks like Cascade Locks may have gotten 6 or 8 inches of snow today–followed by freezing rain on top.
We WILL get ours….eventually!
18Z GFS & 12Z ECMWF have for now eliminated any cold air in our vicinity the next two weeks. Looking like temps to remain near to slightly above climo and above normal rainfall.
Build that snowpack!
Even the ensembles have no arctic outbreaks, but a few show low snow levels.
You didn’t see the really cold air building in SW BC toward the end of the run? Granted it is La-La land, but good to see anyway.
Oh, Brian. Temps look easily below average for at least the next 7-10 days.
I know you love warm weather, but it’s winter, man.
Jesse, NCEP says near normal.
Now this is my kind of la-la-land…
Next frame’s pretty, too… http://goo.gl/GBo9s
/resumes ark construction
999mb? Weak. 😉
I was eying the rain, not the wind. Maybe it will be at 975 tomorrow. 😆
That would be better… I’m STILL waiting for that 944mb Low to come in at Forks, WA. ❗ In 10 days time, it might get there. 😈
That is quite a bit of rain showing, though. 😯
Can’t really tell if the front has passed here. The pressure hasn’t risen much or the wind switched direction, but I have noticed the radar is much more showery in nature now and the easterly gradient is now quickly falling. Should see a west wind take over in the gorge in the next few hours, but it won’t be strong.
Hoping this becomes a trend, but not seeing it on other metograms’
Look at the snow fall towards the end of the 8 days,
Then look how cold it turns by mid week! Below is IPS metostar, above is the NWS version.
I’m just not seeing it in the models, what am I missing? I see a split low around the 7-8th, maybe pulling in some cooler air through the gorge?
The Seattle version looks to be trending colder/snowier too…
Split flow? I thought that was a classic El Niño pattern… during one of the strongest La Niñas in decades? Looks like that theory might be falling apart, or the models are clueless… or both? ❓ 😆
I agree Erik, I will post the model map, and see what you think. Looks like the parent low slips SW of Oregon, hangs there for a day maybe two, but, I STILL don’t see the solution for the cold air that I see around December 7-8th unless that is the reason for it.
Just because we are in a La Nina doesn’t mean we can’t see split flow. Same goes for El Nino we can see a consolidated jet aimed right at us.
The model I am looking at shows a low around 12/3 backing to the SW through 12/5 then turning into the Medford area. Would that be the cause of the snow towards 12/8? Totally a guess, and just wondering why the metoegrams were showing snow and cooler air.
Quite a chilly rain here in NE Portland today — 43 degrees @ 12:54 pm although it feels much colder
This is a brief quote from mark’s future post from July 4th weekend 2011:
“Well I’m sorry for you skiers and snowboarders, but after this weekend, skibowl will only be open weekends. After our epic winter of 2010-2011, it is taking a while to melt things down a bit.
This snow year, timberline has had 2,300 total inches of snow, and in the spring they had just over 600” on the ground. Remember how they had to close early a few week nights to run the bobcats just so the lifts wouldn’t drag in the snow?
It’s great summer is here, I don’t know if we could take another month with daily temperatures below average in the rose city. January’s average high was log 24, thanks to a nice long cold snap.?
Nice quote. Can’t see it happening with global climate change occurring so quickly. Look at the temperature trends in the last 30 years and the decreasing size of glaciers on Mt. Hood.
You are obviously a nut, because la ninas are known for heavy mountain snow
PDX weather nut: seriously?
And I would like you to provide us all with a graph showing how PDX’s temps have trended upward the past 30 years since you seem so sure of it.
As of noon it has already rained 0.57″ at Salem today. A nice soaker.
If the 8-14 day 500mb analog forecast is correct, then review of previous history is notable for a clustering of arctic outbreaks 28-30 days from the analog base point…so in this case it would be 28-30 days from Dec 10, which takes us to about January 10, 2011 for the next bout of arctic air. Let’s see if that forecast verifies.
The analogs were Nov or Dec 1954, 1950, 1966, 1968, 1961, 1981, 1971.
I think that we are so overdue for a good January. The last really good January in Western Oregon imo was 1993, and that was more notable for snow than cold.
I can’t help but sharing the visible satellite again with a lot of the rivers visible in the upper Midwest and Plains where the snow is. Also, a very defined snow line.
Wow, North Dakota looks like it’s 100% snow covered! Well, all except for the surface of Lake Sakakawea. I wonder if it will completely freeze over this year? I’m unfamiliar with how La Niña affects that area.
Sorry for all the back and forth everone out there in blogdom. May the snow gods smile upon you and bless you with all that is white and flakey and not from your head.
Can’ believe you started arguing about such a dumb issue haha, who cares which was your house window is pointed????
if it is SW good for you, just why do you make it such a big deal?
Kyle is it fatal?
I suspect it can make you mentally unstable at the very least. I thought you were done.
Guys this is just the same thing that divided the ships on the Battle Star Gallactica show. Trying to decide which way is the way home….
And the BSG “it has happened before and will happen again” applies to the arguing on the blog too…
Commander O’ scruffs his beard….
Oh William you should not have gone there. Yes I live in Sandpoint now but was actually born in Astoria. In fact my family has been there since the late 1800’s. Oh and to make matters worse I actually worked for Foss Maritime and crewed up out of Astoria. I have traveled across the bar a great many times. Ok I’m done . William you are just to sensitive.
You guys are killing me!! William I was just pointing out something to help in your observations. It turned into something funny. Just like at a lot of places I work. Just a bunch of guys giving you a little crap. No big deal.
Logically speaking Captain, I think the space time continuum is safe.
Oh i sure will Kyle lol what i think is funnier yet is the guy who started the whole bashing me thing is from sandpoint idaho . when you look on a map it can be quite deciving i just give what i see with my own eyes to me looking at the google map it deff shows that astoria is due south and to the east of the mouth of the columbia not north plus the river doesnt run streight it snakes a bit before you hit the opening to the ocean.
by the way its now raining like cats and dogs here still at 50 degrees with some good gusts of wind .
Great, you admitted that Astoria is SE of the mouth. So being in Astoria, there is no way you could be looking to the sw and be looking at the mouth. Case closed, not that big of deal
William, sorry for the confusion, I believe you and appreciate your obs. as well. That’s why I posted the map. I think everyone is a lil froggy from the holidays and the weather, or lack there of.
Please state the nature of the emergency:
Me thinks they need to go to Sick bay even though it’s 49F and lightly raining here:
Computer please activate Emergency Medical Hologram:
EMH: Please state the nature of the emergency.
Western weather disease: (describes symptoms)
Ignore them William: They got the Western weather forum disease.
I am not gonna sit here and argue over what direction is what i know my directions i have lived here long enough have allso used a compass before to argue the same point to my wife and she figured out i was right even though she did think she was right just like the few of you who have decided to bash me on here. And make a big deal out of small piddly stuff . but the ones who have replied to me nicely thank you .
here is another weather report for Astoria
From what the NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE has stated they dropped the High Wind Warning for the north oregon and sounth washington coast.
how can they do that when as the time has gone on from my last post the winds are getting stronger and stronger that dont make sence to me .
My obbs: light rain
with a strong south wind of 15 to 25 mph gusting maybe 45 to 50
I think everyone is on your side William, gets a little ridiculous at times with all the joking around. Please keep your informative posts coming.
I’m not going to take compass direction seriously from someone who can’t spell “obs” and “also”.
OK, here’s a map. Use it wisely, lol (sarcasm inserted here)
*Astoria Oregon above….*
I’d say the front is pushing through LB/Astoria right now as winds are now westerly at the stations on wunderground and pressure is rising a tad.
Well played Pappoose!
Right on captain Kirk!!!!
It means when he gives wind direction it may not be accurate. Thus compromising the integrity of the KPTV weather blog.Which could lead to the space time continuum being out of flux.
I was merely pointing out the mouth of the
Columbia could not be SW of his house if he lives in Astoria. Just trying to help a brother out.
Point well taken Kirk, logically speaking, I think a Vulcan mind meld with william is necessary.
Having lived in Astoria, I can say that he lives in the extreme wsw slope of the hill, his bedroom could face the wsw and see that other river hitting the Columbia. But more likely he has his directions off a bit.
Maybe he’s looking at Young’s Bay
Unless he lived on the hill in east Astoria, the closest direction that the mouth could appear to be is west, when actually it would be wnw
what “if” he lives in a bat cave, hanging upside down, then…hmmmm, it’s like one of those train’s heading west at 80 mph while the other one is traveling east at 30 mph puzzles…lol
Looks like some heavy rain is on our doorstep…