1:30pm Update: Wet Through 6pm

Here’s the latest:

1.  No freezing/snow issues in the lowlands from Portland south through at least 6pm.  After that time things could change quickly, but more likely 8-10pm.

2. Will it snow in the lowest elevations around the Metro Area?  Still a definite possiblity.  I would be VERY surprised if there is not at least a dusting most areas by 10pm.  I would also be surprised to see more than one inch.

Quite a bit more precipitation than expected today, that’s due to a stronger-than-expected area of low pressure developing right around Forks, WA this afternoon.  Pressures down around 1000 millibars instead of the 1005 models were showing.  Check out Tatoosh Island…northeast wind gust to 45 mph, while just 30 miles south a buoy is gusting from the west over 40 mph!  That’s some great meteorological stuff.

That low should race SE and be near Pendleton by late this evening…opening the door for something very unusual here:  a big surge of arctic air from the north/northwest WHILE a west wind is increasing through the Gorge.  Almost every arrival of arctic air here in the Metro area is accompanied by that gusty east wind blowing out of the Gorge.  That’s not happening this time around.

So the obvious question is…where is the cold air going to come from?  Regardless of the depth and position of the low…ALL models show the big cold surge from the north this evening.  Look at these numbers…2,000′ temp over PDX @ 4pm = 32 degrees (accounts for snow level a little over 1,000′ this afternoon).  But by 10pm it’s down to 20 degrees @ the same elevation!  So where is the cold air coming from again?  Check out temps up around the Olympic Peninsula.  The RAWS sites are that cold (or colder) at that elevation, they’ve been cooling all day.  So once the low passes to the east, the cold air should whip around the back side of it.  This is an incredibly cold airmass moving south in the upper-atmosphere, and a good chunk of that is moving in at the surface too.  Should be fun to watch….let’s just hope there is still moisture around to generate SOME snow.

A side note:  Don’t want to sound cranky, but I don’t have any tolerance for bad behavior here today.  Especially with 50,000+ hits to this blog.  I haven’t read comments yet, but I know some will get very upset and lash out when their big snowstorm doesn’t materialize, but you know what?  That’s what forecasting weather is about.  Sometimes it doesn’t turn out like you expect.  Move on…

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

401 Responses to 1:30pm Update: Wet Through 6pm

  1. Runrain says:

    Getting an ice pellet shower here in Happy Valley. Temp just dropped from 36.3 to 36.0. Coming down pretty good too.

  2. Andrew says:

    New update from Mark

  3. Bishoy says:

    Antipex, if that was fake, that’s really not cool. I know, it’s kinda funny seeing people flip out…but really, not now, not the right time.

  4. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    ? If that is a prank not even I’d do something like that if I wanted snow so badly and it just wasn’t looking likely….

  5. Andrew says:

    Not seeing that Winter Storm Warning posted anywhere, only seeing a winter weather advisory right now.

  6. Muxpux says:

    Wind is howling, snows blowing, bring it on!!!!

  7. pgiorgio says:

    anyone want a rum n coke

  8. Ilya Khleboyko says:

    I’m expecting for the worst.

  9. stevied (North Portland) says:

    30.7F at Quartz Creek at 1,100 feet in Coast Range.

    http://www.tripcheck.com/popups/Cam.asp?camera=527&curRegion=1

  10. Chuck on Mt Scott says:

    Just saw this on Tripcheck.com

    US26, 3 miles South of Intersection with Mount Hood Highway ORE35 MP 60 – 67
    Closure

    Highway US 26 is closed wb at mp 60 and eb at mp 67. Expect delays or use alternate routes.

    Issued: 11/22/2010 5:09 pm

  11. Andrew Johnson says:

    Hope I get at least an inch.

  12. Ben Randall says:

    Snowing in Tillamook Valley

  13. stevied (North Portland) says:

    when I look at NW radar, just based on the radar, it SEEMS the center of low pressure is just east of Aberdeen, WA and just south of Olympia, WA. Radar seems to trying to wrap around that point. thoughts?

  14. Chuck on Mt Scott says:

    Watch the greens turn to whites. But also watch as the coast range gets hungry 😦

    http://www.kptv.com/video/10250633/index.html

  15. Sandi (Wilsonville) says:

    Winds just switched to WNW! DP starting to drop finally.

  16. Matthew says:

    new thinking…

    Low pressure will get close to Portland tonight and arctic frontal will move through…I don’t think we will get below freezing by Mid night, so that will likely be the high. This means tomorrow afternoon will be colder then 12am-1am time period. I’m now thinking that a dusting is quite possible, but if that low where to move inland to Portlands southwest then possibly a better. We will see. It will dry out tomorrow with highs within the 20’s for most of the day. Wednesday will warm back into the mid 30’s. and low 40’s again for thursday.

    Tuesday 33/25
    Wednesday 36/24
    Thursday 41/27

%d bloggers like this: