10:00 am Update: No Snow During the Day

Apparently the NAM is correct so far…low pressure is developing off the Washington Coast, pulling back the dreaded south and southwest wind up the Valley and over the Coast Range.  The arctic boundary (front) appears to be in a line from around Hoquiam to Chehalis to Mt. Adams west of the Cascades.  Areas to the south of that are getting a mild south wind (including metro area), to the north it’s cold and snowy.  Until the low pressure passes by late this afternoon, we stay in the “warm” airmass.

All models show the arctic air surging south behind the low this evening, supported by the incredibly cold upper-level trough dropping south.  THAT is our last chance for snow…with the arctic front.  We’re talking after dark.  Now obviously models have trouble with the small-scale details…for example once again there is more precipitation than expected today (just too warm!).  So we should get at least a dusting as the precipitation ends, maybe an inch or so if we get REALLY lucky.  Unfortunately the UW-WRFGFS decided to fail it’s morning run today (too cold?), but our RPM shows a brief burst of snow right along the arctic boundary; supposedly around 7pm.  We’ll see.  I will say that is the one feature our model has been very consistent on, regardless of where the low presssure system was expected to be today.

Disappointing for the snow lovers (I mean people that love snow, not lovers hanging out in the snow of course).  But it IS weather and half the excitement is the anticipation.  Plus, we still have the coldest November airmass in a generation descending on us tonight!

So here’s my latest forecast:

Portland Metro:  Rain/snow showers today…streets remain wet until at least sunset.  Then a Trace to 1″ of snow sometime after 5pm.  Clearing and freezing up by 10pm.

Salem:  Mainly rain showers today, then a mix or all snow showers briefly sometime between 7-10pm.  Could get a dusting then…freezing up after midnight.

 

345 Responses to 10:00 am Update: No Snow During the Day

  1. nanarst says:

    It is snowing big flakes in Albany right now.

  2. Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

    Dumping now!

  3. Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

    snowing again.

  4. Garron near washington square says:

    Mark has new post and update…

  5. Jethro (Canby ~187') says:

    12z X-section for PDX would pretty much agree with Marc’s forecast… but looking at it, I wonder how much moisture is really going to be present after 7:00 when we are projected to really cool off. By midnight the faucet shuts off completely and we go into the deep freeze…

    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/rt/load.cgi?latest+YYYYMMDDHH/images_d3/kpdx.th.gif+text+4%20km%20Portland,OR%2045.59N,122.59W

    But then yesterday’s models didn’t do the best job, so I don’t know how much to trust it… I said on Friday that I was skeptical that we would get anything, and here it is Monday and I don’t feel much different, other than the fact that it looks like we get something as the warm/wet pattern transitions to cold/dry — but it’s going to be a skiff of snow if anything.

  6. 2″ fell during the day yesterday and last night in Gates (1,000 feet)…35 ESE of Salem…Rain and 38 today..hopefully that boundary gets down here soon before the moisture goes away!

  7. william johnson says:

    ok when is Astoria sposed to be getting this what they call a snow event and when are the temps sposed to be starting to drop ive seen nothing so far all i can see outside is strong winds comming out of the north to northwest the artic front was or is sposed to be hitting here by 3 or 4 pm wouldnt you think that the temps would be dropping at least slowly by now?

  8. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    PDX-EUG up to 5mb…. Yes, this is extremely exciting. The low is still spinning near Forks. However the front has swept well inland and is moving pretty quickly to the southeast, but yeah wow a switch to onshore winds south of Forks is really encouraging…. Any sarcasm ?

  9. muxpux says:

    living in longview, its so tough looking at the radar. it constantly looks like the moistures gonna stop any minute only to keep backfilling.

    damn hills, toying with my emotions!

  10. Ken says:

    LOOKS LIKE THE TRAIN HAS LEFT THE STATION. TIME TO WATCH THE SATELLITES.

  11. Cherie in Vernonia says:

    Hwy 18 mile post 32 on the way to the coast semi crash has w/b lanes closed. This is not showing up on Tripcheck either

  12. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    Rob in Long Beach, you should start seeing some sunbreaks shortly 🙂

  13. Ben Randall says:

    Rain /Snow mix Tillamook

  14. 0.33″ of rain today. Much wetter then thought. Could of been a nice surprise snow storm.

  15. N3EG says:

    35F and sticking snow (at least on blacktop) in West Longview.

  16. Austin-Felida says:

    i find all ur peoples lack of faith in mark disturbing just give it time jeez wen the low tracks south there will still be moisture left its not over yet things r just getting started may the force be with us all lol

  17. ShawninSalem says:

    38.7/ Rain/S 5-10

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