A Look Back In Time

How about that 7 Day Forecast from 2008.  Tyler Mode sent me this one from Wednesday…December 10th.  Looks chilly!  Temperatures were a little low in the end, but not too far off.  Timing was perfect on that initial arctic front.

So tonight the big story is the big snowstorm coming up for the Cascades.  At least 18″ and maybe up to 30″ are likely between the start of snow tomorrow evening and let’s say midday Friday.  And this time snow levels stay below 4,000′.  The bad news is that we’re pretty much starting from zero again.  I see the SNOTEL site just below Timberline (5400′) has just 6″ on the ground in the trees.  But at least that 30″ should get Timberline going again…could be tough to get Meadows open this weekend.  Hopefully a few surprise vort. maxes moving through Thursday and Friday might give us even more.

In the lowlands, a nice surge of wind and rain later tomorrow.

After that, I see no real interesting weather Thursday through Sunday.  Remember that at one time many of us were thinking the snow level might be quite low.  Well now it appears that it’ll go no lower than 2,000′ Thursday and Friday, and maybe slightly lower Saturday/Sunday.  But then moisture becomes hard to find.  The 00z GFS is pretty much dry Saturday AND Sunday.  So as I mentioned last night, still no decent chance of lowland snow through Sunday.

Now what about Monday and Tuesday?  Well, luckily I didn’t have to put too much effort into it on tonight’s newscasts because 1:) It’s the last couple days of the 7 Day forecast and 2:)  Too much action tomorrow and tomorrow night in the mountains.  A real nice punt don’t you think?

So let’s talk models…apparently I might have to retract statements #2 & #3 from last night’s post.  The 00z GFS which last night turned colder, has now been followed by the ECMWF.  The shiny new 00z run is the coldest thing we’ve seen so far with a major blast of cold air into the Pacific Northwest.  I don’t necessarily buy that for now, but the trend is definitely there.  The last two runs of the GFS and now the ECMWF are also dry as the cold air moves in, so no snow Monday or Tuesday.  So the current 7 Day forecast would obviously be too warm if this becomes reality.  But models sure can’t be expected to the get the really small-scale stuff right this far out.   Especially with an upper-level low sitting overhead!

This is what we were looking for this winter right?  Keep riding those models…

Here’s the ECMWF for Tuesday at 4am…cold!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

562 Responses to A Look Back In Time

  1. Ben in Eugene says:

    Hey Paul,

    Any chance the cold air will find its way down here our way before the end of the precip??

  2. pbo9 says:

    I’ve had 2.13″ of rain so far today. North Portland.

  3. PaulB/Eugene says:

    precip rate 1 inch/hour on my gauge here in Eugene at this time….

  4. Andrew Johnson says:

    Getting colder and still pouring here in Silverton! Heading for the hills! I’ll report when I get back!

  5. wendy-silverlake,WA says:

    Are we still on for wind on Friday? I saw it mentioned earlier, but then haven’t heard about it since.

  6. t says:

    00z has crushed us all. Hey, I wonder how the Blazers are doing….Oh…

    Hey is that a lightning bolt?

    • Ben (Beaverton, 775 ft.) says:

      Exactly…next we’ll hear that Roy will have season ending surgery, then Camby will go out for the year, followed by Pryzbilla’s season ending when he slips in the shower. And if that’s not enough…oh, nevermind…

    • t says:

      Followed by four months of El Nino.

  7. PortBlazerFan says:

    It’s 36 out here near clackamas high school and getting ready to mix with snow.

  8. Mountain Man says:

    1 -1/4 inches now in the western gorge at 1,150 ft. 32 degrees

  9. pbo9 says:

    39º here in North Portland. Moderate rain. What a surprise for the east side.

  10. Ken says:

    Paul Salem 250 ft? your thoughts please. we probably dont really benefit from light gorge outflow

    • PaulB/Eugene says:

      This has nothing to do with gorge…it is cool air damming against the west foothills of Cascades….precip/snow above cooling the column of air below and the cool air has nowhere to go…so it keeps cooling. By the time the frontal boundary/baroclinic band gets down here it may be kicking through faster…who knows…..if you are on E side of the valley…more likely than on west side.

    • Ken says:

      Yes East of I5 by 5 miles. SE Salem. Thank you for your response.

  11. Mark Nelsen says:

    Check out the “meso-high” sitting up against the west slopes of the Cascades from the cool air! East 15 at PDX, yet it’s a light westerly gradient through the Gorge. And 37 TTD vs. 43 Hillsboro? Same elevation and no Gorge effect. Fascinating…it’s as if the heavy precip dragging down the snow level is producing a blob of cool air eastside. The opposite of the “Forest Grove” effect?

    • Wind is out of the east here and is picking up right now. It’s 35.2 outside and still mixing heavily. One strange thing about this storm is that it’s producing very slushy rain, which was happening even at 40 degrees!

    • Mback says:

      Mark, how do you handle the flip flop of the models? Do you just adjust for the latest model runs or look for trends? A blend of what the models have shown for the day? Perhaps your response will help others from jumping off the Broadway bridge 🙂

  12. Yevpolo1990 says:

    Paul, my chances of snow?at 250 feet in hillsboro

  13. Derek Hodges says:

    With east winds blowing it can’t hurt either. Hoping for a surprise snow

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