A Look Back In Time

November 16, 2010

How about that 7 Day Forecast from 2008.  Tyler Mode sent me this one from Wednesday…December 10th.  Looks chilly!  Temperatures were a little low in the end, but not too far off.  Timing was perfect on that initial arctic front.

So tonight the big story is the big snowstorm coming up for the Cascades.  At least 18″ and maybe up to 30″ are likely between the start of snow tomorrow evening and let’s say midday Friday.  And this time snow levels stay below 4,000′.  The bad news is that we’re pretty much starting from zero again.  I see the SNOTEL site just below Timberline (5400′) has just 6″ on the ground in the trees.  But at least that 30″ should get Timberline going again…could be tough to get Meadows open this weekend.  Hopefully a few surprise vort. maxes moving through Thursday and Friday might give us even more.

In the lowlands, a nice surge of wind and rain later tomorrow.

After that, I see no real interesting weather Thursday through Sunday.  Remember that at one time many of us were thinking the snow level might be quite low.  Well now it appears that it’ll go no lower than 2,000′ Thursday and Friday, and maybe slightly lower Saturday/Sunday.  But then moisture becomes hard to find.  The 00z GFS is pretty much dry Saturday AND Sunday.  So as I mentioned last night, still no decent chance of lowland snow through Sunday.

Now what about Monday and Tuesday?  Well, luckily I didn’t have to put too much effort into it on tonight’s newscasts because 1:) It’s the last couple days of the 7 Day forecast and 2:)  Too much action tomorrow and tomorrow night in the mountains.  A real nice punt don’t you think?

So let’s talk models…apparently I might have to retract statements #2 & #3 from last night’s post.  The 00z GFS which last night turned colder, has now been followed by the ECMWF.  The shiny new 00z run is the coldest thing we’ve seen so far with a major blast of cold air into the Pacific Northwest.  I don’t necessarily buy that for now, but the trend is definitely there.  The last two runs of the GFS and now the ECMWF are also dry as the cold air moves in, so no snow Monday or Tuesday.  So the current 7 Day forecast would obviously be too warm if this becomes reality.  But models sure can’t be expected to the get the really small-scale stuff right this far out.   Especially with an upper-level low sitting overhead!

This is what we were looking for this winter right?  Keep riding those models…

Here’s the ECMWF for Tuesday at 4am…cold!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen