Time for YOUR Forecast

Let’s do something new…I’ll let each of you do what we do each day as professional meteorologists.

KEEP DISCUSSING WEATHER ON THE PREVIOUS POST, NOT HERE.  I’ll delete anything that doesn’t include just these two:

1.  Low/High temp forecast for PDX (only PDX please) for the 18th/19th/20th (next Thursday-Saturday)

2.  The actual weather for Metro area those days (Example: showers Thursday, 5″ snow Friday, 10″ above 1,000′ though, then sunny Saturday).  I just made that up, that is not my forecast of course.

You have until 9:30pm (that’ll get you through the 00z models except the ECMWF), then I’ll shut off the comments.  See, then you have to make a forecast & decision just like the rest of us.  It’ll be real interesting to see what you all come up with.  There will be a nice record of it all too!

Afterwards between 10:30 and 11pm I’ll post my thoughts, and put in my “extra day” Saturday too.  The 7 Day forecast only goes through Friday right now.

Sound like fun?  Good Luck!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

37 Responses to Time for YOUR Forecast

  1. Mark Nelsen says:

    Slipped in 3 minutes late! Okay, comments closed now.

  2. EA_TTD says:

    Thursday: Rain changing to showers, snow level 2,000 feet Hi 41 Low 35

    Friday: Showers and partial clearing Hi 40 Low 32, Snow level lowering to 500 feet overnight

    Saturday: Showers may mix with snow at times. Hi 38 Low 27. Snow level Surface-500 feet. East winds 15-30 mph.

  3. O.C.Paul says:

    THUR 11-18
    high 46 low 34
    east wind 10-20 mph
    no snow, but plenty of flakes (couldn’t help it)
    rain snow mix

    Fri 11-19
    high 44 low 30
    east wind 20-30mph east side east county
    snow rain mix- snow overnight

    Sat 11-20
    high 38 low 26
    some clearing- snow flurries
    east wind 20mph, gusts to 40mph east side and east county

    really hoping for a ‘sneaker’ snow squall though

  4. Bobby La Bonte says:

    THURSDAY, NOV 18, 2010
    Cold,Rainy, Snow level 1500 feet, Thursday night snow as low as 500 feet. So maybe a Dusting in the hills.
    Hi-43F
    Low-30F

    FRIDAY, NOV 19, 2010
    Colder LOW snow. Snow level 250 feet with 4-8IN in the west Hills.Will see Snow,Rain mix on the Valley Floor. Friday Night-SNOWY ON THE VALLEY FLOOR 4-10IN
    Hi-38F
    LOW-25

    SATURDAY, NOV 20, 2010
    COLD,WINDY,SNOWY in the A.M DRYER LATE
    It’s goig to be ICY
    Hi-29
    Low-19

  5. Ehh I’ll have to revise my forecast too:

    Thursday 11/18/10 – Rain, then a chance of showers. High around 45, low around 39. Snow level 2500 ft.

    Friday 11/19/10 – Partly sunny. High around 42, low around 34.

    Saturday 11/20/10 – Mostly sunny. High around 40, low around 29. East wind 20-25mph near the gorge, diminishing later.

    And you can see it here:
    http://www.northwestwx.com/forecaster/viewForecast.php?id=10

  6. Doppler Dave (NE PDX) says:

    18th – 41/45 Rain
    19th – 35/44 Showers
    20th – 34/44 Partly to mostly cloudy
    No snow in the metro area

  7. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    My updated forecast with the 0z GFS data:

    18th: 44-34 Rainy and cold, snow level 2,000′ late
    19th: 43-32 Mostly cloudy, some light rain
    20th: 40-32 Mostly cloudy, slight chance shower, trace snow 1,000′+

  8. Azzurri says:

    Is that a pineapple express hitting BC in lala land? Ewww, slushy mountain boarding =/

    • Azzurri says:

      Whoops, meant to post that in the other thread. Delete? Orrrr

      Thurs: 48/39, rain
      Fri: 45/36, rain, snow above 2000ft
      Sat: 41/34, snow above 1000ft, with perhaps a slushy mix for the PDX area.
      Sun: 40/32, mixed showers but drying out.
      I’ll be heading down there Sun, so optimistic on the dry part?

  9. Gregg-Formerly TTD now in Bend says:

    Thursday

    rain

    45/38

    Friday

    showers

    44/36

    Saturday

    chance showers

    41/34

  10. Thursday 11/18/10 – Rain in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a diminishing chance of showers. High around 40, low around 35.

    Friday 11/19/10 – Sunny early, increasing clouds throughout the day. Slight chance of a shower. Snow level 1000-1500 ft. High around 42, low around 25.

    Saturday 11/20/10 – Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers, possibly mixed with snow at times. Snow level 500-1000 ft. High around 39, low around 29.

    View my forecast here:
    http://www.northwestwx.com/forecaster/viewForecast.php?id=9

  11. alohabb says:

    Based upon all model runs of the GFS and EMFCW, my best guess is as follows:

    I have no friggin clue, and Mark, I leave the forcasting to you!

  12. Danny in Troutdale says:

    Thursday- High:45 Low:34/Showers SL 3000ft

    Friday- High:40 Low:29/ Showers SL 1000ft

    Saturday- High:35 Low:27/ Snow SL Floor-500ft
    1-3 in?

    Total guess by they way. Maybe a little bias as well. Right now this is what I think would happen.

  13. Boydo3 500' North Albany says:

    Thurs light rain, high 50, low 42 sno lvl 4000
    Fri showers, high 48, low 38 sno lvl 3000
    Sat showers high 45,east wind developing, low 35 sno lvl 2500 lowering to 1500 Sat nite

  14. pbo9 says:

    18th 46º 37º Rain snow level 3500′
    19th 44º 38ºF Rain snow level 3000′
    20th 44ºF 33ºF showers snow level 1200′

  15. yetanotherguy says:

    PDX

    Thurs – Showers of rain, more overnight than during the day – 49/41

    Fri – Likely showers decreasing a bit in the overnight – 49/41

    Sat – Showers, some a bit heavy and clearing periods – 44/37

  16. Brenda EVancouver says:

    18th: high 47 low 37 rain with snow around 4000ft

    19th: high 45 low 34 rain with snow around 1500ft

    20th: high 49 low 38 mostly cloudy

    no snow for PDX that weekend even though I would love to be wrong. (dear weather gods, please let me be wrong)

  17. 18th 49 / 38 Rain / Showers

    19th 46 / 32 Rain w/ Low Elevation Snow

    20th 43 / 30 Showers w/ Clearing, Colder

    21st 39 / 28 Snow Showers, Colder

  18. Joshua says:

    Thursday- high 47 low 38. Rain by 3pm. Snow level 3000ft

    Friday- high 43 low 35. Showers to start and then mostly cloudy. Snow level 1500-2000ft

    Saturday- high 41 low 31. Off an on rain. Snow level 1000ft

    There it is Mark. You might as well base your 7 day off of this because it’s official. Haha.

  19. RobWaltemate says:

    Total guess!

    18th low 40 high 44 showers rain
    19th low 35 high 41 showers rain/snow mix
    20th low 36 high 48 rain

    I don’t have any reasons to base any of this other than looking at a few maps, so if I do get anything correct it was dumb luck! LOL

  20. Garron near washington square says:

    18th
    Heavy rain to start the day, then tapering off to frequent showers in the afternoon. Hi: 48, lo: 37. Snow level drops from 5-3000′

    19th
    Showers in the morning becoming less numerous in the afternoon, with some partial clearing late. Cooler, Hi: 42, lo: 32. Snow level 2-2,500″

    20th
    A new system slowly drops down from Alaska overnight giving brief snow shower possibilities down to the lowest elevations by day break. Heavy mixing with south winds being kicked up from the storms approach warming us up to all rain by mid-day. Snow level goes up to 1500′ As storm begins to exit our area, temps will drop again by evening turning the few leftover showers to snow by midnight as much cooler/drier air to our north filters in from the gorge. Hi: 38 lo: 28

  21. k5mitch says:

    Partly to mostly with a chance of anything temps range from 0-120F…

    There you have it. I called like all the Mets in PDX, exluding you Mark…. 🙂

    >>>>>”DELETE PLEASE”<<<<<

  22. Mark says:

    18th: High: 46F – Low: 38F Rain showers. Snow 3000Ft
    19th: High: 45F – Low: 37F Scattered showers. Snow 3000Ft
    20th: High: 45F – Low: 34F Partly Cloudy. Snow 2000Ft

  23. pgiorgio says:

    18th: Chance of showers high: 48 low: 41
    19th: Chance of showers w/snow level to 2000ft high: 46 low: 39
    20th: Chance of showers w/ snow level 1000ft or lower high:43 low: 35

    Obv a t.v meteorologist would be an idiot to say snowstorm on Friday or Saturday and they would probably be boooed off the air when they’re always wrong.

  24. Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

    18th: 45-37F moderate rain. Snow 2500Ft
    19th: 42-35F Scattered showers. Snow 1500-2000Ft
    20th: 39-32F Scattered rain/snow showers mix. 2in of snow at 1000Ft. Just wet flakes in the city.

  25. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    I want to participate, but way too many variables at play between now and then.

    I guess I could just for fun?
    Hmmmmm……
    (Based off of 12z Canadian/ECMWF/GFS)
    Thursday: 45/37 – Rain developing evening hours
    Friday: 42/35 – Showers snow level plummeting to 1,500′
    Saturday: 38/31 – East winds gradually lowering temps. Chance of rain or snow showers

    *Friday: Potential forecast problem due to unknown nature of low/development off the British Columbia coast. Depending on strength of system southerlies may become breezy to gusty with temps briefly warmer into the low 50’s*

  26. Ken says:

    Thursday(4000ft) Daytime Mostly Cloudy High 48
    Nighttime Showers Low 39

    Friday(3500 ft) Daytime Showers High 45
    Nighttime Rain Low 39

    Saturday(2500 ft) Daytime Rain High 46
    Nightime Mostly Cloudy Low 37

  27. Karl Andres says:

    Here is my forecast
    Thursday: low of 38 high of 43 heavy showers with Snow up in the cascades 3-4 inches 3000 feet
    Friday: low 40 high 46 showers all through out day heavy
    with snow up to 3000 feet another 2-3 inches
    Saturday: low 41 high 45 showers light through out day lighter than thursday and Friday. 2000 feet and above 3 inches
    those are my thoughts

  28. Keyboard Cat says:

    Sounds like fun to me.

    18th 48/41 Rain
    19th 47/39 More Rain
    20th 46/40 Still Raining
    extra day: 21st 46/42 Less rain.

    Mike

  29. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    18th: 44-34 Mostly cloudy, showers, snow 2,000+
    19th: 43-32 Partly cloudy,mainly dry.
    20th: 40-32 Mostly cloudy, slight chance shower, trace snow 1,000’+

  30. bgb41 says:

    18th 47-41 Occasional Rain
    19th 46-38 Showers
    20th 43-37 Showers (Snow level 1000ft)

    • W7ENK says:

      W7ENK’s Forecast

      THURSDAY, NOV 18, 2010
      Cold rain, snow level 2500 feet, lowering to 1000 by Thursday night. Rain/snow mix at the highest elevations around Portland. Thursday night, possible dusting in the hills, rain, possibly mixed with snow at the lowest elevations.
      43F High
      35F Low

      FRIDAY, NOV 19, 2010
      Temperature holds steady before gradually dropping off over the course of the day, Snow level 500 feet with Rain/snow mix at the lowest elevations early, changing over to all snow by the afternoon. 4 to 6 inches 500 feet and above, 2 to 3 inches valley floor. East winds light early, increasing to 20 – 30 G50 near the Gorge. Thursday night, blowing snow, frigid air, 2 to 3 more inches overnight.
      38F High
      26F Low

      SATURDAY, NOV 20, 2010
      Lingering snow showers early, Mostly cloudy, clearing around sunset as the real cold arctic air settles into the area. Drying. Gorge winds 20 to 30 G50.
      30F High
      22F Low

      That’s my bet. I’m all in! 😀

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