The Weekend Is Here!

November 12, 2010

Yuck!  Check out this X-Section from the UW WRF-GFS.  Time goes from right to left…from this evening to Monday evening.

The green areas indicated a saturated atmosphere (generally fog or cloud cover).  Note that from later tonight to at least Monday evening the airmass overhead is saturated from the surface to 10,000′?  That says November gloom ahead.  Get out the anti-SAD lamps folks!  It’s a warm front coming through tomorrow with the freezing level jumping well above 10,000′.

Okay, let’s talk about that previous post.  Wasn’t that a fun forecasting exercise?  It’s tough to actually write down a forecast, then have to stick with it through various model runs…I see a few of you even tweaked it a bit after the 00z GFS came out.    My only mistake is that we should have done it 24 hours ago when long range models were colder.

Here’s my forecast:

THURSDAY:  40/45  Light rain
FRIDAY: 35/45  Showers (that low is probably too low, but that’s on the 7 Day.
SATURDAY: 35/43 Turning partly cloudy, a shower?

The GFS is a bit warmer than this…it would be in the mid-upper 40s Saturday.

So there were rumors floating around MediaLand this afternoon of a possible arctic blast or snow to sea level coming up next week.    It’s pretty obvious that it isn’t cold enough for either through at least 8 days from now (next Saturday/Sunday).  The new 00z ECMWF just came in and is almost exactly like the 12z run.  We just turn cool and dry later Saturday and Sunday.  The 00z GFS was similar, except notably warmer.

To sum it up…as of now I still don’t see a decent chance for lowland snow or an arctic blast in the next 7-10 days.  But definitely colder with some good mountain snow.  With northerly flow forecast in the ECMWF (not GFS now), we have to keep a close eye on things though.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

Time for YOUR Forecast

November 12, 2010

Let’s do something new…I’ll let each of you do what we do each day as professional meteorologists.

KEEP DISCUSSING WEATHER ON THE PREVIOUS POST, NOT HERE.  I’ll delete anything that doesn’t include just these two:

1.  Low/High temp forecast for PDX (only PDX please) for the 18th/19th/20th (next Thursday-Saturday)

2.  The actual weather for Metro area those days (Example: showers Thursday, 5″ snow Friday, 10″ above 1,000′ though, then sunny Saturday).  I just made that up, that is not my forecast of course.

You have until 9:30pm (that’ll get you through the 00z models except the ECMWF), then I’ll shut off the comments.  See, then you have to make a forecast & decision just like the rest of us.  It’ll be real interesting to see what you all come up with.  There will be a nice record of it all too!

Afterwards between 10:30 and 11pm I’ll post my thoughts, and put in my “extra day” Saturday too.  The 7 Day forecast only goes through Friday right now.

Sound like fun?  Good Luck!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen