A Quick Evening Update

November 10, 2010

It’s getting chilly out there!  Some parts of the Metro area already in the mid 30s, and fog is developing too.  From our Skyline Camera at 10:30pm I can see either fog or likely low stratus forming over the middle of Portland.  We should see more of that as we head towards daybreak.

Little to no interesting weather coming up the next 5-6 days…this weekend looks real gloomy with some light rain at times too, especially Saturday as a warm front hangs over us.

Long Range:  Previous discussion follows —  Haha!  I haven’t done that for awhile.  Actually I’ve looked at lots of maps the last 6 hours or so…even checked out ensembles too.  The screaming message is that a big pattern change is on the way about 7 days from now.  Beginning next Wednesday, the large ridge sitting just to our west retrogrades, or pushes back to the west.  At the same time a large upper high will build over Alaska.  That turns the flow northwest or northerly over the West Coast, carving out a large upper-level trough over our part of the USA.  The trend in models seems to be a much wetter and somewhat cooler pattern.  Arctic air is bottled up to the north, with lots of strong and cold onshore flow.  Now we’re talking the 7-10+ day maps here, so they flip around with each model run…but they all are pointing to the big change.  The new 00z ECMWF that I can see to 216 hours presents the weather geek’s worst nightmare;  a huge trough drops out of the Yukon out over the eastern Pacific Wednesday-Thursday next week, dumping the cold air out over the ocean as undercutting westerly flow returns us to a mild and wet pattern.  Here’s the map for next Friday:

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen