Check out that storm! This is the 54 hour sea level pressure forecast from the UW MM5-NAM model. Note the 939 millibar low pressure center off the SW coast of Alaska. There have been several extremely deep lows out in the Pacific already this month…we’ll see what happens in November. Of course if a low that deep were to ever get close to the Pacific Northwest coastline, the Columbus Day Storm would look weak. The center of that storm (and other major storms in history here) was around 955-960 millibars.
Note also this storm is about 1600 miles west-northwest of our coastline…to far away to have any effect here.
Other than that it looks real quiet the next 5-7 days.
As I suggested last night, models are definitely pushing the rain well to the north now early next week. After the inital warm front Sunday night and Monday morning, the main rain band will shift up into Washington and British Columbia. This setup is generally very good for very warm temps in November. Most of the cloud cover and all of the rain stays away, but we get a very warm atmosphere overhead. The frontal band is still close, so we get enough mixing with southerly wind to avoid inversions and fog. I could see temps approaching 70 either Tuesday or Wednesday if everything works out right. For now a high of 65 in the 7 Day forecast seems reasonable.
The VERY long range GFS got some excited earlier today. The 12z GFS had shown an arctic blast dropping south over us at Day 16. Well, in the 00z run it’s a warm ridge right overhead instead. That would be why we don’t do 16 day forecasts on the 10 O’Clock News!
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen
“Day 16” in the 12z GFS would have been Nov. 11 or 12 at the time it was printed. That leads to the inevitable question: just how cold would an Arctic blast in the second week of November be?
We already know that around Halloween we’d be talking lows in the 18-25 range outside the major heat islands, maybe 3-5 degrees’ warmer range inside, perhaps even a degree or two warmer still near the West Gorge. But daytime highs get up to the high 40s and low 50s.
In early December, of course, it isn’t too hard to dip down to the low teens away from the heat islands, if the air is sufficiently cold. And daytime highs are only in the high 20s and low 30s.
Do you think we’d have a chance of staying below 40 all day WEST of the Cascades in mid-November, if a serious Arctic event hit us? Keep in mind that the average highs then are about 50-55. And would you expect the weather in the East Gorge and Lower Columbia Basin to be significantly colder (let’s say 3-5 degrees or more) than the Willamette Valley? I do seem to recall that the Halloween cold snaps were slightly colder, in absolute terms, east of the mountains – even at low elevations.
Yes. Mid November 1955 featured a serious arctic blast with highs in the mid 20s in many locations.
Mark, you prove a point being skeptical of a forecast over 16 days out. With the type of season we expect, I don’t have faith in a warm ridge into mid Nov..
Besides…my first day of snow pick was Nov. 18.
Too nice out today… I had my shirt off today while working on the house and I think I got a little pink! Maybe now I will cast a shadow. LOL
High temp today here is 57.8
Shirt off at 57.8?? I envy your moxie!
..pends on how hard you are workin’ 🙂
Crystal clear = awesome view of Jupiter tonight… so bright!
Can you see it’s moons too?
With a decent pair of binoculars, absolutely you can! 🙂
feels like its gonna be a cold one tonight…already a good chill in the air, crystal clear skies…no wind…
Very pleasant 58° under mostly sunny skies.
Sunny and warm in sandy Oregon!
First thing that comes to mind when I see that storm on the graph is the poor guys that have the job of crab fishing up in Alaska…
At almost 2:30 PM Salem is Mostly Sunny and 60 degrees. What a way to end October. And now it looks like some fine weather coming our way next week. La Nina can wait a while.
I guess that the cold is gone already since last night’s IPS.
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KPDX
48° and mostly sunny.
Breath taking picture of Mt Hood taken by Blaine Franger:
http://beautifulhoodriver.com/index.php?showimage=199
His pictures have been posted on the Hood River Weather Site
http://webpages.charter.net/hoodriverweather/weather.htm
Well, I think it is breath taking because I gasped “ohhh” when I saw it.
What a spectacular beautiful picture!!
Those are just amazing!!!
This has absolutely nothing to do with weather but it is too good to pass up.
Ann Rule would love this.
Info came into the HR weather site about the farm where this picture was taken from.
A double murder took place on the farm and the murderer was the last public hanging in Oregon.
http://www.ourstory.com/thread.html?t=363097
Quite the tale! Just goes to show you that even though this country is realtively new, there is a lot of history out there. I still like the picture although I do now look at it differently.
[10.28.10]
High 53°
Low 46°
Rain 0.39″
A new George Taylor post:
http://appliedclimate.wordpress.com/2010/10/28/giant-midwest-storm/
That’s a nice sat image of that storm. I want to compare the sat images of the storm that Mark is talking about, and this one to see which one is the most impressive.
I wonder if The Dalles will be warmer or cooler than Portland during next weekend’s dry spell? I see no reason why we couldn’t get semi-inversion conditions over here, but this kind of ridging pattern doesn’t seem very conducive to east wind. Having a strongly negative surface temperature gradient in the Gorge without an east wind may be possible but it sure sounds strange…
But I do remember some years when the interior got November warmth right down along the Columbia, so it is possible. I’m gonna cross my fingers for a 68 or so here next week!
Wow, it’s raining HARD… again!
[Milwaukie] 10/28/2010
56.5°F High
49.1°F Low
ENE 8.7 mph at 1:14a
0.41″
Interestingly, I just got 0.13″ of rain in the first 13 minutes of today… 😯
At that rate, I should have 14.40″ by midnight! 😆
939 mb??? Jeezuz! Let’s get one of those to ride up the coast from Cape Blanco to Forks at a range of 50 miles offshore, and then see what happens! 😈
Let’s not!!!
Oh, c’mon… where’s your sense of adventure??? 😆
Funny how home ownership changes your opinion of wind storms
Not just wind storms Gidrons. Turns into a love/hate relationship.
You know I’m being facetious, right? I wouldn’t ACTUALLY wish that upon the PNW. 25 to 35 G50 in the valley is about the cut-off of where I think a storm goes from being fun to outright dangerous. Anything over that is just ridiculous and excessive, and property damage is NOT good!
That being said, it doesn’t hurt to fantasize. 🙂
If We ever had a storm like that get really close to our coastline I don’t know what you would besides going into a bunker. Storms like that should be named just like hurricanes.
Looks like gfs 00z is more drier and possibly setting up a REX block 2 weeks or so from now?
Yeah it sure looks dry to me. The pattern either splits the flow, or sends the moisture way up north. Don’t really see our official start to really stormy weather in the near term atleast.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/index_500_mu_loop.shtml
You mean, that crap we just went through over the last weekend didn’t qualify as an “official start to really stormy weather”?
Just wond’rin’?
Kind of like starting the mower for the first time each spring, the conveyor belt got going for a second pelting us with winter, then stops again. (another couple of weeks of dull drums) Time to pull the chain again and see if we can get the jet stream flowing again. The anticipation of getting our winter in full gear is just as agonizing as getting the mower going again after it’s been sitting awhile.
One possibility when you have a Rex block is that the ridge eventually begins to retrograde. I have seen that happen many times before. So if we do get a Rex Block just watch for any westward movement.
Yep, I was about to mention the possibility of the Rex block retrograding. Might be why we saw some cold air showing up in a couple of model runs.
That is the North American Model. MM5 Looper
Thanks Brian. This model is a lot cleaner than some models to read, I like it. And what a beautiful storm it is!!!
which one are you guys talking about?
Typical in that area of the Pacific. The cross polar flow into siberia coupled with the Japan current coming up from the southwest often clash in that area causing massive low pressures.
To me the GOA has been more active than usual for this time of the year.
50 even degrees…0.29″ rain
oh dir, i just saw it above
Nice graphics!!!
That storm takes up the whole screen!!!