A Huge Storm…In the Pacific

Check out that storm!  This is the 54 hour sea level pressure forecast from the UW MM5-NAM model.  Note the 939 millibar low pressure center off the SW coast of Alaska.  There have been several extremely deep lows out in the Pacific already this month…we’ll see what happens in November.  Of course if a low that deep were to ever get close to the Pacific Northwest coastline, the Columbus Day Storm would look weak.  The center of that storm (and other major storms in history here) was around 955-960 millibars.

Note also this storm is about 1600 miles west-northwest of our coastline…to far away to have any effect here.

Other than that it looks real quiet the next 5-7 days. 

As I suggested last night, models are definitely pushing the rain well to the north now early next week.  After the inital warm front Sunday night and Monday morning, the main rain band will shift up into Washington and British Columbia.  This setup is generally very good for very warm temps in November.  Most of the cloud cover and all of the rain stays away, but we get a very warm atmosphere overhead.  The frontal band is still close, so we get enough mixing with southerly wind to avoid inversions and fog.  I could see temps approaching 70 either Tuesday or Wednesday if everything works out right.  For now a high of 65 in the 7 Day forecast seems reasonable.

The VERY long range GFS got some excited earlier today.  The 12z GFS had shown an arctic blast dropping south over us at Day 16.  Well, in the 00z run it’s a warm ridge right overhead instead.  That would be why we don’t do 16 day forecasts on the 10 O’Clock News!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

50 Responses to A Huge Storm…In the Pacific

  1. Karl Bonner says:

    “Day 16” in the 12z GFS would have been Nov. 11 or 12 at the time it was printed. That leads to the inevitable question: just how cold would an Arctic blast in the second week of November be?

    We already know that around Halloween we’d be talking lows in the 18-25 range outside the major heat islands, maybe 3-5 degrees’ warmer range inside, perhaps even a degree or two warmer still near the West Gorge. But daytime highs get up to the high 40s and low 50s.

    In early December, of course, it isn’t too hard to dip down to the low teens away from the heat islands, if the air is sufficiently cold. And daytime highs are only in the high 20s and low 30s.

    Do you think we’d have a chance of staying below 40 all day WEST of the Cascades in mid-November, if a serious Arctic event hit us? Keep in mind that the average highs then are about 50-55. And would you expect the weather in the East Gorge and Lower Columbia Basin to be significantly colder (let’s say 3-5 degrees or more) than the Willamette Valley? I do seem to recall that the Halloween cold snaps were slightly colder, in absolute terms, east of the mountains – even at low elevations.

    • Andrew Johnson says:

      Yes. Mid November 1955 featured a serious arctic blast with highs in the mid 20s in many locations.

  2. O.C.Paul says:

    Mark, you prove a point being skeptical of a forecast over 16 days out. With the type of season we expect, I don’t have faith in a warm ridge into mid Nov..
    Besides…my first day of snow pick was Nov. 18.

  3. RobWaltemate says:

    Too nice out today… I had my shirt off today while working on the house and I think I got a little pink! Maybe now I will cast a shadow. LOL

    High temp today here is 57.8

  4. W7ENK says:

    Crystal clear = awesome view of Jupiter tonight… so bright!

  5. muxpux says:

    feels like its gonna be a cold one tonight…already a good chill in the air, crystal clear skies…no wind…

  6. Mike (Orchards 255') says:

    Very pleasant 58° under mostly sunny skies.

  7. Cgavic sandy Oregon 1,100 ft says:

    Sunny and warm in sandy Oregon!

  8. Jake-(Gresham) says:

    First thing that comes to mind when I see that storm on the graph is the poor guys that have the job of crab fishing up in Alaska…

  9. WEATHERDAN says:

    At almost 2:30 PM Salem is Mostly Sunny and 60 degrees. What a way to end October. And now it looks like some fine weather coming our way next week. La Nina can wait a while.

  10. Garron near washington square says:

    I guess that the cold is gone already since last night’s IPS.

    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KPDX

  11. washington observer says:

    Breath taking picture of Mt Hood taken by Blaine Franger:
    http://beautifulhoodriver.com/index.php?showimage=199

    His pictures have been posted on the Hood River Weather Site
    http://webpages.charter.net/hoodriverweather/weather.htm

  12. [10.28.10]
    High 53°
    Low 46°
    Rain 0.39″

    • Garron near washington square says:

      That’s a nice sat image of that storm. I want to compare the sat images of the storm that Mark is talking about, and this one to see which one is the most impressive.

  13. Karl Bonner says:

    I wonder if The Dalles will be warmer or cooler than Portland during next weekend’s dry spell? I see no reason why we couldn’t get semi-inversion conditions over here, but this kind of ridging pattern doesn’t seem very conducive to east wind. Having a strongly negative surface temperature gradient in the Gorge without an east wind may be possible but it sure sounds strange…

    But I do remember some years when the interior got November warmth right down along the Columbia, so it is possible. I’m gonna cross my fingers for a 68 or so here next week!

  14. W7ENK says:

    Wow, it’s raining HARD… again!

    [Milwaukie] 10/28/2010
    56.5°F High
    49.1°F Low
    ENE 8.7 mph at 1:14a
    0.41″

  15. W7ENK says:

    939 mb??? Jeezuz! Let’s get one of those to ride up the coast from Cape Blanco to Forks at a range of 50 miles offshore, and then see what happens! 😈

  16. Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

    If We ever had a storm like that get really close to our coastline I don’t know what you would besides going into a bunker. Storms like that should be named just like hurricanes.

  17. Yevpolo1990 says:

    Looks like gfs 00z is more drier and possibly setting up a REX block 2 weeks or so from now?

    • Garron near washington square says:

      Yeah it sure looks dry to me. The pattern either splits the flow, or sends the moisture way up north. Don’t really see our official start to really stormy weather in the near term atleast.

      http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/index_500_mu_loop.shtml

    • W7ENK says:

      You mean, that crap we just went through over the last weekend didn’t qualify as an “official start to really stormy weather”?

      Just wond’rin’? o_O

    • Garron near washington square says:

      Kind of like starting the mower for the first time each spring, the conveyor belt got going for a second pelting us with winter, then stops again. (another couple of weeks of dull drums) Time to pull the chain again and see if we can get the jet stream flowing again. The anticipation of getting our winter in full gear is just as agonizing as getting the mower going again after it’s been sitting awhile.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      One possibility when you have a Rex block is that the ridge eventually begins to retrograde. I have seen that happen many times before. So if we do get a Rex Block just watch for any westward movement.

    • AdamInAumsville says:

      Yep, I was about to mention the possibility of the Rex block retrograding. Might be why we saw some cold air showing up in a couple of model runs.

  18. That is the North American Model. MM5 Looper

  19. Garron near washington square says:

    Nice graphics!!!

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