Check out that storm! This is the 54 hour sea level pressure forecast from the UW MM5-NAM model. Note the 939 millibar low pressure center off the SW coast of Alaska. There have been several extremely deep lows out in the Pacific already this month…we’ll see what happens in November. Of course if a low that deep were to ever get close to the Pacific Northwest coastline, the Columbus Day Storm would look weak. The center of that storm (and other major storms in history here) was around 955-960 millibars.
Note also this storm is about 1600 miles west-northwest of our coastline…to far away to have any effect here.
Other than that it looks real quiet the next 5-7 days.
As I suggested last night, models are definitely pushing the rain well to the north now early next week. After the inital warm front Sunday night and Monday morning, the main rain band will shift up into Washington and British Columbia. This setup is generally very good for very warm temps in November. Most of the cloud cover and all of the rain stays away, but we get a very warm atmosphere overhead. The frontal band is still close, so we get enough mixing with southerly wind to avoid inversions and fog. I could see temps approaching 70 either Tuesday or Wednesday if everything works out right. For now a high of 65 in the 7 Day forecast seems reasonable.
The VERY long range GFS got some excited earlier today. The 12z GFS had shown an arctic blast dropping south over us at Day 16. Well, in the 00z run it’s a warm ridge right overhead instead. That would be why we don’t do 16 day forecasts on the 10 O’Clock News!
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen