A Wet & Windy Weekend Ahead

I’ve had a pretty good amount of time to look at the models, satellite, radar etc.. this evening since I only have 1/2 hour to do at 8, 10, and 11pm.  That’s good because there has been plenty to look at.

Here’s what I see that’s different compared to 24 hours ago.

1.  Less rain tonight:  A weakening front and (slowly) filling low pressure offshore with storm #2 are both approaching.  Not a real solid band of rain, but some “shower bands” seem more likely between now and morning.

2.  Slightly weaker wind tomorrow from storm #3, the strong one:  You can see on our RPM model that there is far less 50+ mph average windspeed approaching the coastline tomorrow evening compared to what it showed last night at this time.   Still, average surface windspeeds 40+ and 5000′ wind 70 mph can easily mix down gusts to 60+ mph, so I said 55-65 mph gusts along the coast overnight tomorrow night.  Here in the Valleys it’ll probably be windier during the day Sunday as the gradient is tightest south to north at that time.  30-40 mph gusts are likely then.

3.  Snow level not quite as low Sunday night through Monday:  Looks like it barely touches 4,000′ by Monday morning, so it may be tough to get sticking snow down to Government Camp…better chance for that Monday night and Tuesday.  If you really want to see a lot of snow, head higher, Timberline Lodge should get 10-15″ at least during the Sunday night through Tuesday period.

4.  A lot of rain here in the Valleys:  We get steady rain later tonight (just barely), then a good slug tomorrow night and early Sunday morning with the 2nd cold front.  After that it’s a steady barrage of strong westerly flow showers and waves of showers for 48 hours (through Tuesday morning).  It all adds up!  Maybe 2″ in the driest parts of the Metro area and 3-5″ in the Cascade and Coast Range foothills.  Very impressive for late October.

Overall still plenty of weather excitement this weekend:  a deep sub-960mb low moving relatively close to the Pacific Northwest, soaking rains, and a windy day or two.  Not a bad start to our La Nina “Wet Season”!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

503 Responses to A Wet & Windy Weekend Ahead

  1. r says:

    Well, one thing you can certainly count on is another long string of blown winter storm forecasts. This one was a complete bust from inland valley wind standpoint, and to some extent, precip too.

    Don’t get me wrong, love the weather. But for the life of me, I still can’t understand how forecasters are habitially this bad, in this neck of the woods, year after year, despite the advances in technology. Yes, we need better coastal radar and our area is tough by nature to forecast, but yet again, it’s the same old story – lots of hype, then lots for explanations for how the storm didn’t live up to the hype. Sheesh, and it’s ony October.

  2. washington observer says:

    Kind of odd….
    I have no wind here in the Glenwood Valley but Grayback, a high hill about 15 miles east of me is reporting 31mpg with 50 mph gusts.
    http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=MGRFW1

  3. W7ENK says:

    So, today a repeat of yesterday, essentially? Let’s spread the wealth a bit and get some storms in the areas that missed out yesterday! Please?!? 🙂

  4. Runrain says:

    Strongest south winds in quite some time here in Happy Valley. Gusts maybe touching 40mph? Trees are really bending over.

    • W7ENK says:

      Hmm… really? I’m just a small handful of miles to your West and it’s still calm here. 😦

      It just rained really hard, again…

  5. sds says:

    NOAA is predicting up to 5 feet of new snow by the end of this storm above 6000 feet–a real good start to the ski and winter storm season. TL already has over 20″ on the ground and it is snowing hard.

  6. washington observer says:

    RW’s video reminded me of Lewis and Clark.
    I always think of them about this time of year.
    I wonder if they arrived in a La Nina year.
    Today on October 25, 1805, they have a cool, or cold, clear and fine morning and they are running the chutes at The Dalles.
    They camp at The Dalles until the 28th.

    So, just in case you get a little wet and cold from the rain today, you can think about sitting in a canoe in the Columbia River and running the rapids.

    http://lewisandclarkjournals.unl.edu/read/?_xmlsrc=1805-10-25.xml&_xslsrc=LCstyles.xsl

  7. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    The low res GFS shows constant wind through the entire portion of the low res run. If only that would materialize.

    Pretty good little storm to get the season started if I do say so myself. I never saw lightening but I did hear some thunder. Couple that with some torrential rain and a stiff breeze and you have some good fall storm fun. 🙂

  8. RobWaltemate says:

    Check out this link where the waves are so bad the bouy can’t even report anything!

    http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=46243

  9. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Great pics RobWaltmate!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Oops, wrong location.

    • RobWaltemate says:

      I am planing on going out again with a better video camra and hope the max ebb will stir up the pot a bit more.

      Heavy rain here at times but the pressure is up 1004 mb or so. Wind 8 mph G 27 mph, SW

      I can and could here the ocean all night long even though I am about 1 mile East of it.

    • Tyler says:

      Rob down at Long Beach right now…229th place and will be headed out to Cape D later prob 10-12

  10. RobWaltemate says:

    Here is the video out on the North Jetty on the Columbia Bar yesterday around 3pm. The tide was just starting to go out. I wish I could have stayed to max ebb.

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