Lots of Weather Action!

Here’s the 8-14 day 500mb height forecast and anomaly from CPC.  You can see the troughing forecast to persist off the West Coast and strong jet stream aimed towards us…looks wet!  In fact I see the 00z GFS has pretty much destroyed any chance of a several-day dry spell.  Our wording “Rainy Season Begins” on the 7 Day forecast the first part of this week seems to be correct at this point.

Tonight’s system is pathetic, tomorrow night’s should be quite a bit juicier, and Saturday night’s the strongest.  In the last 24 hours models have backed off on the position of the strong low Saturday night and Sunday morning.  It’s now projected to be a bit farther northwest, but still very deep…955-960 millibars.  That’s respectable even in mid-winter.  Now if we could just get one of those say, on a line from Astoria to Yakima???  A statement I probably wouldn’t repeat on-air I suppose.

Snow levels still drop Monday and Tuesday for some snow in the passes.

By the way, we’ve dropped the old Typepad weather blog.  We started that in late November 2005.  In fact the very first few posts are here on this blog if you go back to that month.  But there’s no reason to be paying for both.  We changed over to WordPress about 18 months ago and I’ve transferred most of the old posts.  Some did not make it; it was a REAL pain to get that info over here.  Unfortunately I see a good chunk of December 2008 didn’t make it.  Couldn’t it have been a July???

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

107 Responses to Lots of Weather Action!

  1. Was out of power last Friday night for six hours because someone swirved to miss a deer and hit a power pole. Tonight I am out of power again since about 7pm because of a down line. Our home football had to postponed until tomorrow. Lame! Not even weather related outages.

  2. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    00z UW WRF-GFS bottoms the low around 950mb I believe, but takes it much further north near the Queen Charlotte Islands. No significant gradient is allowed to translate onshore into our area. Breezy conditions, but nothing strong.

    • Steve in Salem says:

      Is that for tonight / Saturday or for Sunday?

    • Jim in N. Tabor says:

      Thanks for all your updates Rob, they are much appreciated, and seem pretty accurate most of the time. Are we still on for the “Halloween howler” or still too early to tell ?

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      That is for Saturday night/Sunday AM.

    • Steve in Salem says:

      Thanks…I have so much to learn. I was thinking we were going to have some fun this weekend…bummer maybe next time…

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Jim, you’re welcome thanks for the comment. Halloween Howler would be nice, but I haven’t seen anything on any models to suggest such.

  3. PhilinForestGrove says:

    Not to be too technical here… but it looks like the cinnamon roll is getting smushed.
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_enhanced+12

  4. washington observer says:

    I still have robins in my yard!

  5. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    .SHORT TERM…NO CHANGES EXPECTED TO CURRENT HEADLINES DURING THIS EVENING UPDATE.

    IMPRESSIVE FRONT SPIRALING INTO A SLIGHTLY FILLING 988MB LOW NEAR 44N/132W THIS EVENING IS PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS LOW STILL HAS NOT BEGUN ITS EXPECTED TRACK TO THE NORTH…BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DO IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.

    Mhmmm sometimes I do know what I’m talking about. Whew that is a relief 🙂

    • Salem Steve says:

      Rob.. So are you thinking Salem and the area is looking at 35 to 40 guest or a bitt higher Saturday night / Sunday morning?

    • Steve in Salem says:

      So what kind of winds are you thinking?

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      For tonight, or the big storm Sunday?

      Overnight tonight/Saturday AM 15-25mph

      Saturday night/Sunday 25-35mph higher gusts possible.

      Still need to see exactly where the low tracks, but more importantly does it weaken before landfall or not.

  6. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    UW 00z MM5-NAM

    Low peaks around 959mb, but moves into central Vancouver Island. The low does weaken and slowly fills upon land fall. There is a PDX-EUG of 7-9mb however which could bring very gusty winds.

    We’ll have to see what the UW 00z WRF-GFS shows in a bit.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Unfortunately the low slows and windcast shows nothing over 35-40mph. However IF the low were to continue moving onshore maintaining forward motion I wouldn’t rule out higher gusts.

  7. RobWaltemate says:

    Are we add 8 hrs to UTC or do we subtract 8 hrs to get our UTC?

  8. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Hmmm one interesting observation I have to share. NWS and models show the low offshore supposed to weaken and move well north of us. Well it has weakened slightly probably still around 985mb, but it isn’t moving north rather due east or even a slight jog to the ESE.

    Watch this 30 frame IR Loop
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir_enhanced+30
    Notice how as it intensifies it moves ENE/NE, but levels off due east and now perhaps a tiny jog to the ESE. Does it dumbbell back around to the NE and north tonight? I doubt it.

    • RobWaltemate says:

      I am going out on a limb here, but if I am reading the GFS 00z right (not too sure here) my barometer should be 1012-1016, but I am at 1009.4

      Maybe the low isn’t going north?

    • RobWaltemate says:

      Nevermind, we are -7 from PDT to get the UTC, so I am wrong.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Glad it wasn’t just me wondering when it would turn. Doesn’t appear to be turning yet.

  9. 10-22-2010 Oregon Temperature Extremes

    Warmest:
    High 73 at Troy and Adrian (11SW)
    Low 56 at CW2936 (Southeast Portland)

    Coolest:
    High 38 at Timberline 7K (Palmer)
    Low 24 at Crow Flat & Seneca

    Largest Diurnal Change: 37 degrees
    Troy (73/36)

  10. muxpux says:

    lots of lightning being detected offshore…

  11. Josh "The Snowman" From Everett, WA says:

    Nice “Firehose” setting up. Where is this day break that all the models are showing?? I see a constant stream of precipitation. At least no less than 12 hours or so, maybe that is what they are talking about?

    Good news guys. Long range is already calling for some colder weather by the first week of November. I know, it’s in La La land, but still worth looking at. This could finally be the winter we are looking for.

    I’m smelling 1950 or 1989, just has that feel. A smart man I know real well has told me that animals are even acting weird this fall. As if they know what is going on. I’ve seen faster moving cumulus this year than last year already.

    Maybe I’m crazy but I’ve followed this stuff for a long time. This year feels different. It has an epic feel to it.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      +2

      I like the way you think here. It could be.

    • Garron near washington square says:

      Not crazy! I think your on to something too. Silly as it sounds, I have a medium long haired cat that is 11 years old. He stopped shedding the 3rd week of August for the 1st time. Normally stops in late September-mid October. I was up at Larch Mountain last night and witnessed very fast moving cumulus clouds around a nearly full moon. Very eerie!!! Time to see if our pets can sense the cold PDO shift. If so, I guess I’ll be putting my cat up for the next “weather cat”!

    • O.C.Paul says:

      “Knock, knock , knockin on heaven’s door…”

  12. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Can really see Sunday’s low developing on IR loop now. Looks like this is going to evolve into quite the monster.

  13. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    I think the best thing we can hope for is tonight’s UW 00z WRF-GFS shows a 960mb low blasting into the Queen Charlottes or N. Vancouver Island with some forward motion still present thus maintaining a decent gradient. At worst I can’t imagine winds gusting over 30-40mph….

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      The 18Z GFS 850mb run over at UW shows the low rapidly decaying as it nears land. It does get it all the way down to 946 on it’s approach though.

      MM5 is out to lunch still.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      946 is ultra sexy, jeez.

    • W7ENK says:

      Jeezuz, that’s close to the 944 I’ve been waiting for! Are you sure that’s going to fill in and the gradients will relax all that much before it makes it to the neighborhood?

      *whispers* ultra sexy! 😆

  14. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Unfortunately the beast is developing now as seen on WV loop/28km, but too far north of 40 N already. I assume it will bottom out around 950-956mb and well to the northwest probably Queen Charlotte Islands…. The cinnamon roll low offshore is already decaying, so don’t expect much from it. The NAM however handles the low Sunday much differently with a stronger gradient over western Oregon, IF it were correct we might see gusty conditions. The GFS/EURO take the low much further north and I would bet on that scenario looking at WV Loop, placement of wave initialization and development, and the obvious NE movement coming swinging the low well away from us.

    Enjoy the rain and breezy conditions.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      We must not let down our guard, must relentlessly track the beast.

    • W7ENK says:

      Hahaha! 😆

      Maybe if we all do it collectively, we can wish this windstorm into existence??? Worth a try at least, right?

      Let’s try for Sunday, and if that doesn’t work we can work on the “Hallowe’en Howler” next! 😀

    • PaulO says:

      Or if we all stand outside at the same time and blow really hard the same direction. 🙂

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      I’m blowing needles off my driveway, say when and I’ll join in with a south wind. We can do this. oooooaaaaahhhhahaah!

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Oh my we are so storm deprived 🙂 😆 …

    • Emily Waldman says:

      Yes, we are storm-deprived:)! Briing it on! The calm before the storm! The morning was gorgeous here in Longview, WA.Now cooling & cloudy with a slight breeze!

    • W7ENK says:

      Indeed, we are storm deprived!!!

  15. relocation time
    hundred feet higher and south
    roaring bull creekside

  16. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    Surprised nobody has mentioned this!!! First High Wind Watch of the season!

    Statement as of 5:34 AM PDT on October 22, 2010

    … High wind watch in effect from Saturday evening through late
    Saturday night near beaches and headlands along the north and
    central Oregon coast and South Washington coast…

    The National Weather Service in Portland has issued a high wind
    watch near beaches and headlands… which is in effect from
    Saturday evening through late Saturday night.

    * Winds: wind gusts to 65 mph are possible.

    * Timing: strongest winds should occur around 11 PM PDT Saturday.

    * Locations include: Lincoln City… Newport… Cape Foulweather…
    Yachats… Cannon Beach… Netarts… Pacific City… Long Beach…
    Cape Disappointment

    * impacts: strong winds can damage trees and cause power outages.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Doesn’t the NWS issue a high wind watch with almost every wet season low pressure system? Almost seems that way.

    • Yevpolo1990 says:

      haha yes they do, almost anything below 990mb that rides up the coast and makes landfall near vancouver island

    • RobWaltemate says:

      Yah, I only saw a little wind at about 4 am, otherwise it never got over 20 here at the house and averaged only 4 mph.

      Heck, the sun even came out today! LOL

  17. WEATHERDAN says:

    10:36 AM and mostly sunny here in Salem. Already at 60 degrees.

  18. Boydo3 500' North Albany says:

    Kinda funny. The front page of the Albany Democrat Herald “Strong storm may spare mid-valley”. Then they go on to describe how wet it’s going to be. Which is it?

  19. RobWaltemate says:

    Rain just hit us hard at 8:40… really hard!

  20. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Wow… Last runs over at the UW GFS takes our little storm and curls it hard north bottoming out at 942.

    Not sure if I’m reading the MM5 850mb loop right or not. But it shows a significantly weaker low at just 1010 coming on shore along the southern coast of Vancouver Island.

    If that is accurate; talk about model disparity!

  21. Battle Ground Brian says:

    Projected rainfall totals by the 06Z GFS

    16-day totals

    KTTD – 9.66″
    KPDX – 8.21″
    KHIO – 8.05″

    November 2006 I got 18.43″ of rain. I would like to see a repeat of that flood.

  22. Derek Hodges says:

    Looks REALLY wet. Enjoy. 🙂

    As for me I will be getting some flakes soon, I am at school in Utah so I’ll let you all know.

  23. RobWaltemate says:

    Mark: I double dog dare you to say that on TV. NOT!

    Pressure here is still hanging around the 29.87 to 29.89 However from Midnight to about 4:48a the Temp and DP were the same in the mid 50s. Wind here at my house has been mostly South (SSE to SSW) 9 mph gust 27 mph, and I am still waiting for that big SE wind that we get before a large storm. It did rain between 2 & 4:30 am (0.18″). Not much work to do today, so I can keep an eye on the weather… more fun anyway!

  24. Andrew Johnson says:

    06z gfs is very wet!

  25. washington observer says:

    After freezing nights in the twenties……
    It is soooo warm here on the southeast side of Mt. Adams.
    When I went to bed last night the temp was 50.2.
    When I got up this morning it was 48.9.

  26. pappoose in scappoose says:

    OK, waiting for the low to morph into a GRANDIOSE MONSTER and raise its ugly head over us, we are not afraid to do battle.

  27. W7ENK says:

    Just FYI, and FWIW, it’s snowing quite hard all over Estonia today. First snow of the season! Got this photo from a friend over there…

    Live video in the Capitol city of Tallinn.
    http://gw.tallinnlv.ee:11082/local/video.html

    🙂

  28. Karl Bonner says:

    Nothing to complain about, that’s for sure. An amazing first 3 weeks of October for outdoor activities, and the wet season kicks off with a bang.

    That being said, I’m curious as to what would have happened if the pattern had continued to stay mostly dry and ridgy for the next two weeks. We’re getting to the point in the year where it’s next to impossible for the sun to warm us up appreciably. At the same time (at least east of the mountains), soil moisture remains very low – low enough that I bet the Columbia Basin wouldn’t be able to fog up very much like it does when we’ve already had quite a bit of rain. At least it ought to be more difficult for a fogversion to form. Could a bone dry November pattern with dry soil and low dewpoints lead to a cloudless inversion instead?

    • RobWaltemate says:

      If it had stayed dry, Eskimo would have to be the favorite costume on the 31st! LOL

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      The one x-factor you aren’t accounting for is on shore flow giving us a significant marine push making the low levels moist providing enough catalyst for fog.

    • washington observer says:

      I don’t know Karl but a cloudless inversion would so much better than the horrible, depressing freezing fog that we can get socked in with for weeks here on the east side.

    • umpire says:

      Karl – I’m not sure what the humidity/soil moisture factors would be, but I grew up in Boise, and it is notorious for winter inversions there. Over time, the air collects all the smoke, car exhaust, etc., and you can pretty much cut the atmosphere with a knife by day three or four. Given that it is fairly arid in Boise, with rainfall comparable to eastern Oregon, that might be the answer. Of course, greater population in Boise adds all the junk to the atmosphere.

    • Karl Bonner says:

      Sorry Rob but I’m not inclined to believe you on that one…even in the dead of winter, non-Arctic ridges in the Columbia Basin aren’t much colder than seasonal norms.

      I was taking into account onshore flow, Ryan. But most late fall ridges give us an offshore flow. If there was onshore flow though, the Columbia Basin would likely be much sunnier than the Willamette Valley, possibly even warmer. Reason is a catch-22: if there is westerly push through the Gorge we won’t see fog and low clouds much east of Cascade Locks, if even that. If surface flow is somewhat easterly there, low-elevation humidity will remain low. Either too dry or too windy…

      Umpire, just what is the “answer”? Does Boise get a lot of cloudless inversions or do the vast majority of them come with freezing fog?

  29. W7ENK says:

    [Milwaukie] 10/21/2010
    64.6°F High
    43.0°F Low
    SE 8.3 mph at 2:49p
    Trace

  30. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Mark, thanks for the exciting update.

    Sure would be nice to see 12z suite of models pull the low further south…. Unlikely, but I will keep watching WV Loop like a Hawk, a Hawk with extra special vision….

  31. Yevpolo1990 says:


    Beauty!

  32. Mountain Man says:

    I thought someone would post video of the winter weather meeting like last year, but all I can find in the comments is the first 4 minutes which was such a teaser. I was really bummed I had to miss it. Anyone have a link or something so I can watch or do we not have the video up yet or what??? Thanks!

    • W7ENK says:

      I’m workin’ on it. I recorded the whole thing in HD, and obtained all the slides too, but incorporating the slides into the video is proving to be a big pain in the @$$. I hope to get the first part up before the end of the weekend.

      Life has also been getting in the way this week! o_O

  33. W7ENK says:

    YAY, it’s about time! 🙂

  34. Yevpolo1990 says:

    I like the storm for tomorrow…looks very healthy

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